could be game over for me

Good recovery TOTGA after the early reversal.
Still overstaking mind

Bank 1 £426.81
(01) Lay Watford 1v0 Birmingham (PRE KO) @ 12.0 W £36.86 £463.67
(02) Lay Nancy (IP 0v1 Toulouse) @ 7.2 W £71.04 £534.71
(03) Lay THE DRAW (IP Espanyol 1v0 Zaragoza) @ 5.7 W £108.08 £672.79
(04) Lay Mallorca (IP Malaga 0v0) @ 4.7 W £177.54 £850.33
(05) Lay Stoke 1v0 Arsenal @ 11.5 (PRE KO) £76.93 £927.26
(06) Lay Liverpool 0v2 Man City (PRE KO) @ 15.0 W £62.92 £990.18
(07) Lay Osasina 2v1 Barcelona (IP Osasuna 1v0) @ 16.0 W £62.71 £1052.89

Bank 2 £426.81
(01) Lay Chelsea 1v0 Newcastle (PRE KO) @ 9.8 W £46.07 £472.88
(02) Lay HT/FT Mallorca (IP Malaga 0v0) @ 9.2 W £54.79 £525.67
(03) Lay Kaiserslautern 1v2 1860 Munich (PRE KO) @ 17.0 W £31.21 £556.88
(040 Lay PSG 2v0 Bordeaux (IP 0v0) @ 8.8 Possible Profit £67.82

Bank 3 £500
(01) Lay Silkeborg (IP FC Midtjylland 1v0) @ 11. W £47.50 £547.50
(02) Lay AC Milan 3v0 Sampdoria (IP 0v0) @ 16.0 W £34.68 £582.18
(03) Back INTER (IP Pescara 0v2) @ 1.12 Possible Profit £66.37

Bank 4 £500
(01) Lay UNQ (IP Liverpool 2v1 Man City) @ 18.0 W £27.94 £527.94

Bank 1 £426.81
(01) Lay Watford 1v0 Birmingham (PRE KO) @ 12.0 W £36.86 £463.67
(02) Lay Nancy (IP 0v1 Toulouse) @ 7.2 W £71.04 £534.71
(03) Lay THE DRAW (IP Espanyol 1v0 Zaragoza) @ 5.7 W £108.08 £672.79
(04) Lay Mallorca (IP Malaga 0v0) @ 4.7 W £177.54 £850.33
(05) Lay Stoke 1v0 Arsenal @ 11.5 (PRE KO) £76.93 £927.26
(06) Lay Liverpool 0v2 Man City (PRE KO) @ 15.0 W £62.92 £990.18
(07) Lay Osasuna 2v1 Barcelona (IP Osasuna 1v0) @ 16.0 W £62.71 £1052.89
(08) Lay PALERMO (IP 0v1 Napoli) @ 12.5 Possible Profit £86.97

Bank 2 £426.81
(01) Lay Chelsea 1v0 Newcastle (PRE KO) @ 9.8 W £46.07 £472.88
(02) Lay HT/FT Mallorca (IP Malaga 0v0) @ 9.2 W £54.79 £525.67
(03) Lay Kaiserslautern 1v2 1860 Munich (PRE KO) @ 17.0 W £31.21 £556.88
(040 Lay PSG 2v0 Bordeaux (IP 0v0) @ 8.8 Possible Profit £67.82

Bank 3 £500
(01) Lay Silkeborg (IP FC Midtjylland 1v0) @ 11. W £47.50 £547.50
(02) Lay AC Milan 3v0 Sampdoria (IP 0v0) @ 16.0 W £34.68 £582.18
(03) Back INTER (IP Pescara 0v2) @ 1.12 Possible Profit £66.37

Bank 4 £500
(01) Lay UNQ (IP Liverpool 2v1 Man City) @ 18.0 W £27.94 £527.94
(02) Lay Atalanta (IP 0v1 Lazio) @ 8.2 Possible Profit £69.65

correction ... Bank: 50

Bank 1 £426.81
(01) Lay Watford 1v0 Birmingham (PRE KO) @ 12.0 W £36.86 £463.67
(02) Lay Nancy (IP 0v1 Toulouse) @ 7.2 W £71.04 £534.71
(03) Lay THE DRAW (IP Espanyol 1v0 Zaragoza) @ 5.7 W £108.08 £672.79
(04) Lay Mallorca (IP Malaga 0v0) @ 4.7 W £177.54 £850.33
(05) Lay Stoke 1v0 Arsenal @ 11.5 (PRE KO) £76.93 £927.26
(06) Lay Liverpool 0v2 Man City (PRE KO) @ 15.0 W £62.92 £990.18
(07) Lay Osasuna 2v1 Barcelona (IP Osasuna 1v0) @ 16.0 W £62.71 £1052.89
(08) Lay PALERMO (IP 0v1 Napoli) @ 12.5 W £86.97 £1134.86

Bank 2 £426.81
(01) Lay Chelsea 1v0 Newcastle (PRE KO) @ 9.8 W £46.07 £472.88
(02) Lay HT/FT Mallorca (IP Malaga 0v0) @ 9.2 W £54.79 £525.67
(03) Lay Kaiserslautern 1v2 1860 Munich (PRE KO) @ 17.0 W £31.21 £556.88
(04) Lay PSG 2v0 Bordeaux (IP 0v0) @ 8.8 W £67.82 £624.70

Bank 3 £500
(01) Lay Silkeborg (IP FC Midtjylland 1v0) @ 11. W £47.50 £547.50
(02) Lay AC Milan 3v0 Sampdoria (IP 0v0) @ 16.0 W £34.68 £582.18
(03) Back INTER (IP Pescara 0v2) @ 1.12 W £66.37 £648.55

Bank 4 £500
(01) Lay UNQ (IP Liverpool 2v1 Man City) @ 18.0 W £27.94 £527.94
(02) Lay Atalanta (IP 0v1 Lazio) @ 8.2 W £69.65 £597.59

Start Bank £1000
Cuurent Bank £3005.70 (9 Days)

hi TOTGA your scores so far;

56 bets; 53 wins (94.7% SR)

laying/betting to fixed liability: +3.1 pts (5.56% ROI)

laying to fixed stake/betting to win fixed stake: +26.55 pts (5.06% ROI)

avg lay price: 9.85
avg bet price: 1.12

above figures include 5% commission. Interesting to see how long you can stay around the 5% ROI. Are you finding value to get the 5% or you think it's luck? Your bank is now 3000, laying/betting to fixed 5% of bank (150), find 40 bets a week = 6000 turnover. 5% ROI is 300 profit a week, then you can compound, week by week.  If you have an edge, you don't need to stake like you are, esp now you have a decent bank. Just my opinion, good luck.

iqmc- many thanks for your post and thank you for taking time to look through the results.

It is most certainly a very interesting read.

In all honesty, i am unsure whether i am finding value in any of my bets but i do spend at least 3-4 hours researching my bets for each specific day and never steer away from my selections.

I suppose in all honesty i am pretty much backing between 1.06 - 1.2 on most of my bets but i have never had a strong enough strike rate in backing at these odds so i have always favoured the laying of the C/S market.

Buzzer has always said that i have been staking too high but in all honesty i am not very good with staking plans etc, could you elaborate a bit on the above?! (having a bit of a blonde moment!).

One thing that i do know is that if i was to take a hit i would be devastated and it is somethimes that emotion that makes me go on to hit further losing bets!!

Im very interested to read your bit about 40 bets a week, what strike rate would i need to make £300 per week?, i suppose it would all be down to the odds etc??.

Any help would be greatly appreciated, i have been on here for nearly 5 years and are yet to master the correct staking system for the above which is one of the main reasons why i have continued like this for so long!, it hasnt always been theis good though as the first couple of years i found it very tough but the more work you put in to C/S selection, the greater the rewards.

40 bets a week, you would need the same strike-rate to make 300 a week, using 150 stakes. Basically you can lose 1 in twenty. In an ideal world you would hit 19 winners and then the loser, but it doesn't work like that, you can hit winning streaks of 50 and the next day lay 3 winners in 10. This is the real test when you have the bad day, to carry on regardless, doing the same and using the same stakes, when you know it will take you at least a week to recover the loss. But if you have an edge and stay patient, you can average 300 a week.

Using only 5% of bank per bet (150 in your case) means you have twenty chances basically. Using only 5% means you can cope with the inevitable losing runs. Some may say with your odds, 5% is too conservative, but if you are unsure if you have an edge, then 5% is good, because if your edge or luck disappears, you are still gonna be in profit, at least have your 1000 start bank left and you can re-evaluate.

I am not a believer in staking plans, only level stakes works for me. The proffessional approach is to lay each bet for 150 liability, then each time you have an increase in bank, raise the stake. EG bank 4000, stake 200.

Of course it's not as fun this way But you said you would be devastated if you have a big hit now. If you want to carry on the same, maybe spend a grand on something nice, start again with a grand and have a grand back-up. My way, if you get 5 hits in a row, you are only gonna lose 750.

If you are not comparing prices, yours with BF, then its hard to say if you have an edge. Maybe subconsciously you are finding value (particularly IP). Only after a few hundred bets will you find out. My suggestion of staking will keep you in the game long enough to find out.

Bank 1 £601.12
(01) Lay HT/FT Deportivo (PRE KO Valencia v) @ 18.0 W £33.59 £634.71
(02) Lay Ath Madrid 1v1 Ath Bilbao (PRE KO) @ 10.0 Possible Profit £66.99

Bank 2 £601.12
(01) Lay SP Lisbon 1v2 Rio Ave (IP 0v1) @ 12.5 Possible Profit £49.66

Bank 3 £601.12
Bank 4 £601.12
Bank 5 £601.12

Bank 1 £601.12
(01) Lay HT/FT Deportivo (PRE KO Valencia v) @ 18.0 W £33.59 £634.71
(02) Lay Ath Madrid 1v1 Ath Bilbao (PRE KO) @ 10.0 W £66.99 £701.70 *pending*

Bank 2 £601.12
(01) Lay SP Lisbon 1v2 Rio Ave (IP 0v1) @ 12.5 W £49.66 £650.77
(02) Lay Estudiantes 0v0 Colon (PRE KO) @ 8.4 Possible Profit £83.54

Bank 3 £601.12
Bank 4 £601.12
Bank 5 £601.12

Bank 1 £601.12
(01) Lay HT/FT Deportivo (PRE KO Valencia v) @ 18.0 W £33.59 £634.71
(02) Lay Ath Madrid 1v1 Ath Bilbao (PRE KO) @ 10.0 W £66.99 £701.70
(03) Lay Anderlecht 3v0 AEL (PRE KO) @ 12.5 Possible Profit £57.96

Bank 2 £601.12
(01) Lay SP Lisbon 1v2 Rio Ave (IP 0v1) @ 12.5 W £49.66 £650.77
(02) Lay Estudiantes 0v0 Colon (PRE KO) @ 8.4 W £83.54 £734.31
(03) Lay Panathinaikos 2v0 Malaga (PRE KO) @ 15.5 Possible Profit £48.11

Bank 3 £601.12
Bank 4 £601.12
Bank 5 £601.12

excellant stuff

Bank 1 £601.12
(01) Lay HT/FT Deportivo (PRE KO Valencia v) @ 18.0 W £33.59 £634.71
(02) Lay Ath Madrid 1v1 Ath Bilbao (PRE KO) @ 10.0 W £66.99 £701.70
(03) Lay Anderlecht 3v0 AEL (PRE KO) @ 12.5 Possible Profit £57.96

Bank 2 £601.12
(01) Lay SP Lisbon 1v2 Rio Ave (IP 0v1) @ 12.5 W £49.66 £650.77
(02) Lay Estudiantes 0v0 Colon (PRE KO) @ 8.4 W £83.54 £734.31
(03) Lay Panathinaikos 2v0 Malaga (PRE KO) @ 15.5 Possible Profit £48.11

Bank 3 £601.12
(01) Lay Nottm Forest 0v1 Wigan (PRE KO) @ 10.0 Possible Profit £63.45

Bank 4 £601.12
(01) Lay Stevenage 0v0 Southanpton (PRE KO) @ 12.5 Possible Profit £49.66

Bank 5 £601.12
(01) Lay FULHAM (IP Sheff Wed 1v0) @ 7.0 Possible Profit £95.17

Cheers Azza

Bank 1 £601.12
(01) Lay HT/FT Deportivo (PRE KO Valencia v) @ 18.0 W £33.59 £634.71
(02) Lay Ath Madrid 1v1 Ath Bilbao (PRE KO) @ 10.0 W £66.99 £701.70
(03) Lay Anderlecht 3v0 AEL (PRE KO) @ 12.5 W £57.96 £759.66

Bank 2 £601.12
(01) Lay SP Lisbon 1v2 Rio Ave (IP 0v1) @ 12.5 W £49.66 £650.77
(02) Lay Estudiantes 0v0 Colon (PRE KO) @ 8.4 W £83.54 £734.31
(03) Lay Panathinaikos 2v0 Malaga (PRE KO) @ 15.5 W £48.11 £782.42

Bank 3 £601.12
(01) Lay Nottm Forest 0v1 Wigan (PRE KO) @ 10.0 W £63.45 £664.57

Bank 4 £601.12
(01) Lay Stevenage 0v0 Southanpton (PRE KO) @ 12.5 W £49.66 £650.78
(02) Lay Guarani SP 0v0 Parana (PRE KO @ 11.0-11.5 Possible Profit £58.13

Bank 5 £601.12
(01) Lay FULHAM (IP Sheff Wed 1v0) @ 7.0 W £95.17 £696.29

Bank 1 £601.12
(01) Lay HT/FT Deportivo (PRE KO Valencia v) @ 18.0 W £33.59 £634.71
(02) Lay Ath Madrid 1v1 Ath Bilbao (PRE KO) @ 10.0 W £66.99 £701.70
(03) Lay Anderlecht 3v0 AEL (PRE KO) @ 12.5 W £57.96 £759.66
(04) Lay Celtic 2v0 Helsingborg (IP 0v0) @ 7.8 Possible Profit £106.12

Bank 2 £601.12
(01) Lay SP Lisbon 1v2 Rio Ave (IP 0v1) @ 12.5 W £49.66 £650.77
(02) Lay Estudiantes 0v0 Colon (PRE KO) @ 8.4 W £83.54 £734.31
(03) Lay Panathinaikos 2v0 Malaga (PRE KO) @ 15.5 W £48.11 £782.42
(04) Lay THE DRAW (IP Lille 1v0 Copenhagen) @ 9.0 Possible Profit £92.91

Bank 3 £601.12
(01) Lay Nottm Forest 0v1 Wigan (PRE KO) @ 10.0 W £63.45 £664.57

Bank 4 £601.12 (£0)
(01) Lay Stevenage 0v0 Southanpton (PRE KO) @ 12.5 W £49.66 £650.78
(02) Lay Guarani SP 0v0 Parana (PRE KO @ 11.0-11.5 L £58.13 £0

Bank 5 £601.12
(01) Lay FULHAM (IP Sheff Wed 1v0) @ 7.0 W £95.17 £696.29
(02) Lay FC Basel (IP CFR Cluj 1v0) 8.0 Possible Profit £94.50

oh sh1t.. celtic 2-0 88th min goal... fingers crossed for another J.

Bank 1 £0
(01) Lay HT/FT Deportivo (PRE KO Valencia v) @ 18.0 W £33.59 £634.71
(02) Lay Ath Madrid 1v1 Ath Bilbao (PRE KO) @ 10.0 W £66.99 £701.70
(03) Lay Anderlecht 3v0 AEL (PRE KO) @ 12.5 W £57.96 £759.66
(04) Lay Celtic 2v0 Helsingborg (IP 0v0) @ 7.8 L £106.12 £0

Bank 2 £601.12
(01) Lay SP Lisbon 1v2 Rio Ave (IP 0v1) @ 12.5 W £49.66 £650.77
(02) Lay Estudiantes 0v0 Colon (PRE KO) @ 8.4 W £83.54 £734.31
(03) Lay Panathinaikos 2v0 Malaga (PRE KO) @ 15.5 W £48.11 £782.42
(04) Lay THE DRAW (IP Lille 1v0 Copenhagen) @ 9.0 W £92.91 £875.33
(05) Lay Barcelona (IP R. Madrid 1v0) @ 6.0 Possible Profit £166.31

Bank 3 £601.12
(01) Lay Nottm Forest 0v1 Wigan (PRE KO) @ 10.0 W £63.45 £664.57

Bank 4 (£0)
(01) Lay Stevenage 0v0 Southanpton (PRE KO) @ 12.5 W £49.66 £650.78
(02) Lay Guarani SP 0v0 Parana (PRE KO @ 11.0-11.5 L £58.13 £0

Bank 5 £601.12
(01) Lay FULHAM (IP Sheff Wed 1v0) @ 7.0 W £95.17 £696.29
(02) Lay FC Basel (IP CFR Cluj 1v0) 8.0 W £94.50 £790.79

Current Bank £

TOTGA
You are still, massively, overstaking. You had a good run to get to over 3k and you should have reigned it in and staked to lose, at most, 5% of your bank. You're still ahead but, if you want to run this for the season not just a month or so, you need to rethink your liabilities on each bet.
You may be excellent at this but, the way you're going, you're never going to find out. Many a decent punter has probably put him/herself out of the game because of poor money management.