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General Betting
Essentially, the person's daily bet is 2pts per baseball game.
He also does a 5 pt bet per week.
When asked what is different in his criteria to decide when to go 5 pt, he responded that he does the same thing daily, but sometimes he finds more value in some plays and therefore ups the wager from 2 to 5.
Where this doesn't work for me is that I only bet if there IS value.
Am I missing something or is the above approach only indicate that this person doesn't understand when to take on a bet?
The "more" implies he always finds some value, but bets more when he finds more value, which is completely logical
If I see a bet as being 10% better and play it at 2 pts, how does 15% justify 150% more?
It sounds from "He also does a 5 pt bet per week. " that he does it for fun (even if there is no extra value).
The 2 pt is his daily tease. 5 pt, client only.
Right now, he just went through the ultimate high and low:
8 winning selections in a row, all at decent odds
then
9 losers in a row, giving it all back and more
I also think it is that 'gamblers' tend to always look at the upside ("If chelsea win, I'll get £200"....yes, but you are risking £400 and they are playing away on a muddy pitch and you could LOSE £400)
My latest is to bet X and if I am confident in the bet, I'll split it between 1X2 and an Asian market offering more return. This averages the bet up and creates a 'push' scenario on part of the return if the bet 'just gets in'.
http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/2008/12/kelly-criterion.html
Lost me there shape.
Jun 21, 2012 -- 5:04PM, FINE AS FROG HAIR wrote:
"--- creates a "push scenario -- "Lost me there shape.
Quick examples / quick math:
baseball:
a) Having a £20 bet/same match two markets:
Match odds £10 @ 1.70 £8.00 net
-1.5 £10 at 2.5 = £14.50 net
Team wins by two or more = £22 profit (equivalent to 2.16)
Team wins by one run = +8 less 14 = £6 loss
Team loses = -20
Creating the "push"
b) £20 bet
Match odds £12.00 @ 1.70 net = £8.00
-1.5 £8 at 2.5 = £11.75 net
Team wins by two or more = £19.75 profit (equivalent to 2.00)
Team wins by one run = +8 - 8 = 0 ***PUSH***
Team loses = -20
The "push" meaning money returned on the result.
Push
Definition: A tie against the spread. On straight bets the result is "no action." All monies are returned as if the bet had never been made.
Yes, you can just take the -1.5 but the combinations are there depending on your read of the match.
