General Betting
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21 Jun 12
00:33
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Date Joined:
04 Apr 03
I just read a post elsewhere.
Essentially, the person's daily bet is 2pts per baseball game.
He also does a 5 pt bet per week.
When asked what is different in his criteria to decide when to go 5 pt, he responded that he does the same thing daily, but sometimes he finds more value in some plays and therefore ups the wager from 2 to 5.
Where this doesn't work for me is that I only bet if there IS value.
Am I missing something or is the above approach only indicate that this person doesn't understand when to take on a bet?
Essentially, the person's daily bet is 2pts per baseball game.
He also does a 5 pt bet per week.
When asked what is different in his criteria to decide when to go 5 pt, he responded that he does the same thing daily, but sometimes he finds more value in some plays and therefore ups the wager from 2 to 5.
Where this doesn't work for me is that I only bet if there IS value.
Am I missing something or is the above approach only indicate that this person doesn't understand when to take on a bet?
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"sometimes he finds more value ... and therefore ups the wager"
The "more" implies he always finds some value, but bets more when he finds more value, which is completely logical
The "more" implies he always finds some value, but bets more when he finds more value, which is completely logical
Okay, I think maybe, for me, I find the ratio of 150% more doesn't make sense.
If I see a bet as being 10% better and play it at 2 pts, how does 15% justify 150% more?
If I see a bet as being 10% better and play it at 2 pts, how does 15% justify 150% more?
well you're right there. Should be 3 points (other things being equal).
It sounds from "He also does a 5 pt bet per week. " that he does it for fun (even if there is no extra value).
It sounds from "He also does a 5 pt bet per week. " that he does it for fun (even if there is no extra value).
No, he considers himself a professional handicapper.
The 2 pt is his daily tease. 5 pt, client only.
Right now, he just went through the ultimate high and low:
8 winning selections in a row, all at decent odds
then
9 losers in a row, giving it all back and more
The 2 pt is his daily tease. 5 pt, client only.
Right now, he just went through the ultimate high and low:
8 winning selections in a row, all at decent odds
then
9 losers in a row, giving it all back and more
Show how low a priority staking gets in some peoples minds.
My stakes can differ a lot more than that depending on if I think I have slight value or massive value.
I feel it is about learning the math.
I also think it is that 'gamblers' tend to always look at the upside ("If chelsea win, I'll get £200"....yes, but you are risking £400 and they are playing away on a muddy pitch and you could LOSE £400)
My latest is to bet X and if I am confident in the bet, I'll split it between 1X2 and an Asian market offering more return. This averages the bet up and creates a 'push' scenario on part of the return if the bet 'just gets in'.
I also think it is that 'gamblers' tend to always look at the upside ("If chelsea win, I'll get £200"....yes, but you are risking £400 and they are playing away on a muddy pitch and you could LOSE £400)
My latest is to bet X and if I am confident in the bet, I'll split it between 1X2 and an Asian market offering more return. This averages the bet up and creates a 'push' scenario on part of the return if the bet 'just gets in'.
Mr Anderson. Besides a weekend flutter, how much do your selected bets swing?
My staking is Kelly inspired (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_criterion). When deciding my stake I take the edge I think I have and slash it in half or more though (more the more uncertain I am about my own estimate), and then maybe reduce it some more if it still results in a higher stake than I would be comfortable with.
Per Kelly, stakes should be determined by the size of the edge. 2% is usually considered a reasonable percentage as it is better to err on the side of caution if you are unsure of the edge, and raising this to 3% or 4% for exceptional (and rare) opportunities is reasonable.
http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/2008/12/kelly-criterion.html
http://green-all-over.blogspot.com/2008/12/kelly-criterion.html
"--- creates a "push scenario -- "
Lost me there shape.
Lost me there shape.
Jun 21, 2012 -- 11:04PM, FINE AS FROG HAIR wrote:
"--- creates a "push scenario -- "Lost me there shape.
Quick examples / quick math:
baseball:
a) Having a £20 bet/same match two markets:
Match odds £10 @ 1.70 £8.00 net
-1.5 £10 at 2.5 = £14.50 net
Team wins by two or more = £22 profit (equivalent to 2.16)
Team wins by one run = +8 less 14 = £6 loss
Team loses = -20
Creating the "push"
b) £20 bet
Match odds £12.00 @ 1.70 net = £8.00
-1.5 £8 at 2.5 = £11.75 net
Team wins by two or more = £19.75 profit (equivalent to 2.00)
Team wins by one run = +8 - 8 = 0 ***PUSH***
Team loses = -20
The "push" meaning money returned on the result.
Push
Definition: A tie against the spread. On straight bets the result is "no action." All monies are returned as if the bet had never been made.
My philosophy is that if you are going to bet on a football or baseball team, you need to feel they can win by more than one run.
Yes, you can just take the -1.5 but the combinations are there depending on your read of the match.
Yes, you can just take the -1.5 but the combinations are there depending on your read of the match.
a 'draw no bet' would be the simplest example of a push (back and lay equal amounts on the different teams)
I was showing an example of "creating" your own push
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