General Betting
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am i the youngest formumite on here?
am i the youngest formumite on here?
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Replies: 4,673
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bought chicken chow mein and a pot of curry sauce with mine.
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hi biscuit mate I wil pm you when I get back from work about the first goalscorer market. I'm very impressed with your knowledge on world football don't know how u keep up with it all. thanks trev h I was thinking about an audi but US young uns get hit big with insurance lol.that's awesome you've been able to buy those cars with betfair money mate all the best with the Nissan :)
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ermm you forgot to congratulate me on my new zanussi
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Completely comfortable being called odious by yourself Ken,as previously stated you are the one and only person whom i tend to wind up as you seem to think your opinion is one which everyone should sit up and take notice.
At school there was always one know it all in class who without fail had his hand in the air at every opportunity,you do love the sound of your own voice just a pity nobody is listening. |
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SCOM saw your thread on fixing of games & I don't know to what extent it still exists but we do know up until last season it happened in Italy & I've talked to a couple of people re Roma yesterday & it still doesn't make sense
i got badly stung yesterday trying to trade 0-0 (took it at 34 & couldnt get rid of it even at around 40) a price way beyond even barca would be away from home - I recalled the book "the miracle of castel di sangrio" how games will be played out to suit certain people & well I'm never touching serie a again tonite I think zaragoza could be warm order at 2.18 who are 0-0-6 away from home and also going overnite for a lay of the draw in colombo at around 1.65 - that appears ludicrously low with sri lanka 43-3 chasing new zealand's 412 but there's weather around tomorrow - however samaraweera has hurt his finger and the complexion of the game could change v quickly & as the forecast is better for days 4 & 5 shouldn't be too much damage done if not much happens tomorrow, particularly at this price |
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thats celta 0-0-6 away from home
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"SCOM saw your thread on fixing of games & I don't know to what extent it still exists but we do know up until last season it happened in Italy & I've talked to a couple of people re Roma yesterday & it still doesn't make sense
i got badly stung yesterday trying to trade 0-0 (took it at 34 & couldnt get rid of it even at around 40) a price way beyond even barca would be away from home - I recalled the book "the miracle of castel di sangrio" how games will be played out to suit certain people & well I'm never touching serie a again" I don't think the Pescara Roma game was dodgy, people just appreciate that is very unlikely in a Roma game even compared with Barca. However there have been 3 in the last 2 weeks that have raised an eyebrow for me: the last 2 Chievo home games vs Udinese and Siena (Chievo since they're a small team tend to go under the radar) and Napoli - Milan (somebody was trying lay Napoli for very big money in the afternoon leading up to the game, sums which i wouldn't expect to see even for a game of this stature, and Napoli just seemed to disappear in the second half) |
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It could also be you weren't aware of the true price of 0-0 for Pescara Roma ;-) (see post of Nov 19, 12.38pm). And there no similarities between the Roma and Barca prices because Roma are expected to concede more, therefore opposition goal expectancy is higher and price ratio of draw:dog is crucially different.
If you do want to dabble in CS for Serie A again, i'd be trading on a small victory for Torino at Juve next weekend 0-1, 0-2 etc. I think Juve will drift quite a bit for this Derby game, and Unders will come in as well. |
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im differing slightly on the draw approach, im steadily backing it now (rates from 1.7) and hopefully lay it off a bit shorter before play starts..its a low risk trade, the only reason the price will change significantly is rain overnite and if so, then the draw price only gets shorter
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andriy it doesn't matter who scores the goals for the 0-0 price there are simply more goals in barca games - around 4.4 v 3.8 for roma and 5.3 v 4.1 if you're looking at away games
I agree the goal expectancy is higher for roma games than barca, my point is that unless somebody knows something we don't then the stats show that these comparative expectations are simply wrong I like your strategy SCOM - just not sure what the Mrs would say at 4am that I've woken her up to bet on a cricket match in Sri Lanka - the rain is interesting tho as I spent a week in colombo last month & most days it would rain at nite, dry up v quickly in the am and move in late in the afternoon - if they can get in 50 plus overs in and there's more than 1 wicket that draw price should boom |
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andriy I was trading the match odds in napoli vs Milan and agree they disappeared. the first half I was backing napoli the second half I reversed and backed Milan. finished 2-2 in the end of Milan looked as though they could win it
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job done on draw already backed 1.7, laid 1.62
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Nothing dodgy at all about Roma games, their goal odds are high this season simply because they have Zeman as manager who adopts tactics similar to when Ossie Ardiles was Spurs manager. Before yesterday all of their away games had gone over 2.5
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and now its 1.6, i take it its raining
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lol 1.55 now, i jumped too soon, but still mustnt get greedy
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1.6 again now....i love the volatility of cricket markets...and this isnt even in play, theyre all in bed lol
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biscuit I know this, the point is, howeever attacking roma are, there are considerably less goals in their games than in barca games yet 0-0s are very much higher - that doesn't make sense
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SCOM I think its all on the weather - someome expects a washout tomorrow
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The difference isn't as much as you'd think.
Barca - 58 goals avg 4.46 Roma - 53 goals avg 3.86 Before yesterday they were even closer. Plus the odds allow for the fact that Roma ship goals as well as score them whereas Barca don't concede as many. In home games though, a 0-0 would be much higher in a Barca game than a Roma game. |
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Hi chaps- dont forget site will be down from midnight til 9am tomorrow, careful with your SL v NZ bets
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cheers tommy i forgot tbh
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so that means no trading on the big monday nite nfl game then...betfair ffs
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^
don't worry, there will be plenty of liquidity on Purple for that, everybody will move over |
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biscuit yes I was using those stats - but a) both sides were away at the weekend & b) as I said it is irrelevant if roma ship more goals for 0-0 if you are referencing avge goals per game, a goal is a goal and its 0-0 no longer, whoever scores -
so goals per game in barca games are around 20% higher than roma, 30% in away games yet 0-0s in the last couple of games have been 30% higher for roma than at the barca games , its a massive discrepency thanks tommy - maybe a good thing, its a small risk , let it run its course |
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biscuit yes I was using those stats - but a) both sides were away at the weekend & b) as I said it is irrelevant if roma ship more goals for 0-0 if you are referencing avge goals per game, a goal is a goal and its 0-0 no longer, whoever scores -
so goals per game in barca games are around 20% higher than roma, 30% in away games yet 0-0s in the last couple of games have been 30% higher for roma than at the barca games , its a massive discrepency thanks tommy - maybe a good thing, its a small risk , let it run its course |
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Green Army,
You are using stats in a very primitive way in these examples. That is maybe why you disagree with the entire betting public on what constitutes the correct price |
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hejik dont try and patronise, you havent got the brain power
its a simple proposition, in any given game at home away or on the moon there's more goals in barca games than roma games, hence the 0-0 sb lower in roma games, it hasn't been and i have no idea why - and only 1 person really dasagreed, dont pick a fight when there's none there or you'll be sent to kenny's club |
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the threads now reached 100,000 views
 . thanks to everyone who's contributed since march. i'm going for sunderland back at 2.3 southampton are steaming in and i missed out on 3.15 on liverpool i'm not willing to back lower on them.also stoke are popular and newcastle are not fancied for this the money has come for stoke. |
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wow - with the exception of the football threads about specific football clubs, it looks like the most widely read forum on the community - well done smithy, and as you have noted before we must be doing something right !
to celebrate I hope some are now trading their 3.1 milwall advised yesterday at 2.94 and madness on the sri lanka market with the draw anything from 1.55 to 1.75 in the last few hours, and as SCOM rightly noted, there's nothing happening, they are all in bed - convinced its a punt on the weather, but my take is that whatever happens tomorrow, that with the better weather forecast for days 4 & 5 there's still a reasonable chance of a result so v little to lose & a few wickets and its boom |
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i lost quite a bet on the happoel tel aviv match trading the correct scores in play...betfair decided in their wisdom to suspend shortly after half time and didnt reopen... it couldnt of been down to having no live feed as i watched the whole game on betfair video...very poor performance
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I'm bang in trouble I think
Expected Leeds to be 3.0 to 3.1 and to shorten to about 2.75 by the off based on previous matches and especially last Saturday So I've spent two day backing them at 3.15 to 3.35 and by my standard I'm balls deep Now 3.45 which seems ridiculous as Leicester are no better than palace Got the prayer mat out as I don't want to give back any cricket winnings! |
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majority of the high street averaging 3.0, so personally i reckon it should come back..but thats just my own gut feeling, you must do as you thinks right for you
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If I'm honest I think it will but worst ways I can see me breaking even
How long you been cricket trading sweet? I love cricket but have never really bothered with it but it has a certain appeal as it seems to lack the panic of football and gives you a bit more time to react Lost a chunk on the Aussie draw but got most of it back this morning on Sri Lanka |
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cricket..years now...theres nothing bet than trading a 5 day test from first to last ball, building up your green (hopefully) along the way.....but you need to be always on top of it..study the historical data, the state of the pitches the weather maps etc etc
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Yes I think research is looks much more relevant than in many aspect of football
Looks like the majority of the rain will miss last 3 days in Sri Lanka so result likely I think You mentioned earlier the George Davis test match it was 75 v the Aussies I was a kid living in Pudsey and I was supposed to go that day I was gutted when it was called off My claim to fame is that I personally delivered Sir Geoffrey's telegrams when he got his 100th hundred in 77.....happy days |
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oh thought it was pakistan, i just recall i was balls deep on england to win, and it was going to be a thrilling last day run chase, the only result not possible was a draw...little did we know
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always risky to go balls deep in lower league English stickon last season I put 1k on a league two match and found myself scrambling to safety. unless it's televised best left alone for me personally
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Will let you know this evening Smithy but only 15k traded so far and it's not got any shorter here or on Pinny
Don't fancy leaving it late either floods all over the shop out here and tinternet is up and down like a bride's nightie |
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"The fact there are more goals in Barca games than Roma games means absolutely nothing in relation to what price the 0-0 should be" - gonna show my 8 year old tonite hejik - I would spend a lot more time learning the basics of mathematics before you open your mouth - or having a trade for that matter , if its a wind-up - a ha ha
well the cricket in sri lanka is a strange one, 1.25 draw with 2 full days to go seems absurdly low but have to bite the bullet on that one |
