How can make best use of these shortening horses???

*3:45 Chepstow that should read

how much shorter in running are you able to predict to 90-95% confidence levels 1 tick or 50% or more?

Bet at 5.6 and traded as low as 1.63 in running

getintheir...I will show some examples for the remaining races and take a look

3:55 ling Get Carter

Bet at 6.33 traded as low as 4.2 in running

think you need to work out how confident you are at getting varying % reductions in price then work out the most profitable % to play you lay price at.

are you willing to share your criteria for selecting?

Not willing to share anything at the moment get in there but if somebody could find a decent way of putting it into play then would be open to some form of partnership or something...

take it you have some trading software ie the geeks toy?

4:05 Fairy  Ninetieth minute

Yes I have the geeks toy but don't feel I am exploiting my find to its maximum potential at the moment...hence this thread

bet at 2.32 and went on to win the race

i would record each selection in a spreadsheet. then set up whether each selection wins at 10% , 15% , 20% etc reduction. record lowest IR price and determine if selection was successful. then record green up profit at each price if successful. total up wins and losses. then after many selection you should see which % reduction level you should be laying at.

That sounds like pretty decent advice getintheir...do you trade on here then?? and how many races would you say are needed before you can get these figures??? 1000 or more??

i do on greyhounds mainly. get 100 and then put into play with small money. try to model how much of a bad run you could take at your stakes. do you have an understanding of when you could cut your loses and trade out ? eg if prices doubles take the hit or would you let it ride?

4:20 Chepstow Handy Andy

all trading done pre race on greyhounds.

Bet at 5.68 and traded at 3.85

4:30 Ling Sand Skier

Bet at 5.59 and traded at 1.2

good start.. off out now!

Zardsky 4:40 Leopards

Bet at 7.6 and won

4:55 Cheps Lady Willa

Bet at 5.33 and won

5:05 Ling Baby Strange

Bet at 9.42 traded at 7.2

5:10 Newc Stagecoach Jasper

Bet at 5.42 and traded at 4.5

The spreadsheet overtime will tell you what price reduction you are aiming at. if you are looking at 25% price reduction to lay at then the last 2 would have counted as losses.

If you set your price reduction too low then you may need to hit 90% to turn a profit. remember if you set at 20% reduction you will not get 20% profit as you are greening up what ever the result so you spreadsheet needs to work out how much you will be able to green up at each price reduction level.

5:30 Chepstow Bladoun

bet at 12.0 traded at 1.41

nathan147

If yesterday's races (excluding Irish) are anything to go by you'll have plenty to chose from as only 10 horses out of 261 runners traded at odds greater than their BSP, namely....

EVENT_ID	MENU_HINT	EVENT_NAME	EVENT_DT	SELECTION_ID	SELECTION_NAME	BSP	IPMIN*
104968455	GB / Kemp 25th Feb	2m4f Nov Chs	25-02-2012 16:10	3364823	Zaynar	4.39	4.4
104963699	GB / Ling 25th Feb	5f Hcap	25-02-2012 17:05	1479451	Baby Strange	9.42	9.6
104963689	GB / Ling 25th Feb	6f Hcap	25-02-2012 14:15	4719303	Diamond Vine	9.82	12.5
104968457	GB / Kemp 25th Feb	2m5f Hcap Hrd	25-02-2012 16:45	4053932	Ultravox	12.44	12.5
104968486	GB / Newc 25th Feb	2m Nov Hrd	25-02-2012 16:00	5342429	Victor Hewgo	14.24	15
104968439	GB / Chep 25th Feb	2m Hcap Chs	25-02-2012 15:45	2810086	Super Formen	17	19
104963689	GB / Ling 25th Feb	6f Hcap	25-02-2012 14:15	4136655	Haadeeth	22.17	23
104963689	GB / Ling 25th Feb	6f Hcap	25-02-2012 14:15	3033507	Speak The Truth	20.36	24
104968484	GB / Newc 25th Feb	4m1f Hcap Chs	25-02-2012 15:25	2335779	Present Mlord	18.74	24
104968486	GB / Newc 25th Feb	2m Nov Hrd	25-02-2012 16:00	5869382	Kirkaig	263.79	300

* IPMIN = Minimum price placed in-play (only bets of a payout of more than GBP100 included)


In other words, 251 out of 261 runners, that's 96.17%, traded shorter in running than their BSP.

interesting. we would need to look at how much shorter they get ie percentage shortening by 25% etc.

Based on yesterdays small sample i guess the analysis would through up he shouldnt lay off in running at all or trade off between 95-100% price reduction as he has 3 winners 2 at fairly big prices.

getintheir - I've been down this road before on a strikingly similar thread back in 2010.

http://community.betfair.com/general_betting/go/thread/view/94082/26132649/f...

This is the main problem.  As top2rated shows any fool, even me, could post a whole series of horses that will shorten up in running and I will get almost all of them correct.

So what do you do?  Trade each one out that you pick at 10% shorter, 50% shorter, 80%?  Of course each one that doesn't make your traget loses your full stake whereas those that do get there make you a small profit.  It's like backing a series of odds on shots.  Also leaving your lays up in-running to be taken you are almost certainly giving away some value over the long run to the fast picture players.

The theory is all very well, profiting from it it trickier than it may first seem.

yes i get a feeling it won't be the last thread of this type.. not sure if I have been officially reeled in or not!

my suggestion was to keep a spreadsheet to keep record of where your biggest profits based on varying % reductions. after sufficient number of trades start laying at that reduction factor at small liabs.

Without the info as to the selection criteria we have no way of assessing the chances of some sort of real value being available, but at the moment it sounds doubtful..

for uk win markets ip for 25 Feb 96.2% IP odds went below Sp. However only 74.3% dropped 10% below Sp , 64.4% 20% below Sp, 55% dropped 30% below SP and 45% below 40% of sp.

nathan can you beat any of those figures?

The honest answer to that is I don't know getintheir!

Guess I will get that 100 or so selections under my belt and report back

updated figs:

10% reduction - 86%
20% reduction - 76%
30% reduction - 67%
40% reduction - 56%

these are closer to what I was expecting, as if only 74% drop hit 10% reduction then I'd be looking at a different approach.

So just using the 10% price reduction example what percentage do I need to win according the stats that you have given?

The stats given do not help to work that out, they just tell you the size of the task.

If a 10% reduction happens 86% of the time, therefore you would lose 14% of the time (1 in 7).

If the price difference between bet and lay is 10% (inc. charges) you will have to win 90% of the time (1 in 10).

Roughly, where the stats would expect 3 losses, you need to only have 2.

the figs are for 1 day only. when using more data i expect the 10% reduction to move closer to 90%.

Here is the first set of results from this evening and a few from yesterday afternoon.

Thoughts ???

Horse        BSP Win BSP Place    I/R Lowest Odds    Runners     Result
Thats the Deal     7.27    3.15        Won            4        Won
Golden Firebird    3.70    1.45        3.60            12        Fell   
Sussex Sunset    7.62    2.40        2.60            15        Unplaced
Basford Bob    4.40    1.66        2.72            8        3rd
Cantlow            4.20    2.17            4.20            14        Unplaced
General Tufto    9.80    2.64        8.80            5        Unplaced
Gold Platinum    8.51    2.74        4.80            13        Unplaced
The Catenian    4.90    1.99        2.24            13        3rd
Perfect Fantasy    4.07    2.04        Won            7        Won
Estypolish dim    5.26    2.34        Won            13        Won
Mataleb            8.26    3.43        4.0            7        Unplaced
Russian Ice    10.5    3.25        1.51            13        2nd

Sorry a bit all over the place there!

just back em to win and leave it at that