General Betting
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FOOTBALL BETS TESTING A THEORY WHICH
FOOTBALL BETS TESTING A THEORY WHICH
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GAME 4
Fixtures 19 March / Roma v Genoa / Correct Score 3 - 3 Back 19-Mar-12 19:19 85 2.00 85 19-Mar-12 19:19 Fixtures 19 March / Roma v Genoa / Correct Score 1 - 0 Lay 19-Mar-12 19:18 9.8 48.00 9.8 19-Mar-12 19:18 Fixtures 19 March / Roma v Genoa / Correct Score 2 - 0 Back 19-Mar-12 19:17 8.8 4.00 8.8 19-Mar-12 19:17 Fixtures 19 March / Roma v Genoa / Correct Score 0 - 2 Back 19-Mar-12 19:17 65 2.00 65 19-Mar-12 19:17 Fixtures 19 March / Roma v Genoa / Correct Score 2 - 2 Back 19-Mar-12 19:17 20 4.00 20.42 19-Mar-12 19:17 Fixtures 19 March / Roma v Genoa / Correct Score 1 - 1 Back 19-Mar-12 19:17 10.5 9.00 10.5 19-Mar-12 19:17 Fixtures 19 March / Roma v Genoa / Correct Score 0 - 0 Back 19-Mar-12 19:17 20 2.00 20 19-Mar-12 19:17 =================================================================================== Just believe ROMA will concede a goal .....and MGOFS is 1-1 or 2-2. GL with bets. |
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GAME 5
Fixtures 19 March / Espanyol v Santander / Correct Score 0 - 1 Lay 19-Mar-12 19:27 18.5 48.00 18.5 19-Mar-12 19:27 ===================================================================== Difficult game to "guess" on......Just believe the home team will create chances and take at least 1 of em. MGOFS is 1-0 or 2-0 or 1-1. GL with bets. |
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GAME 3 ...CURRENTLY 1-0 1ST HALF COTT
SO AS LOOKS AN OPEN GAME...JUST LIKELY ANOTHER GOAL COMES.... Fixtures 19 March / Cottbus v Fortuna Dusseldorf / Correct Score 1 - 0 Lay 19-Mar-12 19:44 7.8 24.00 7.8 19-Mar-12 19:44 |
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1-1 late in COTT game..so layed 1-1 profit off a bit...
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ROMA HIT ,.....a daft lay by me ..again......1-0 with ROMA a poor team....got what I deserved !
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GAME 6
Fixtures 19 March / Quilmes v Ferro / Correct Score 0 - 2 Back 19-Mar-12 21:47 55 2.00 55 19-Mar-12 21:47 Fixtures 19 March / Quilmes v Ferro / Correct Score 0 - 0 Back 19-Mar-12 21:47 9.2 6.00 9.2 19-Mar-12 21:47 Fixtures 19 March / Quilmes v Ferro / Over/Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 Goals Back 19-Mar-12 21:46 2.42 42.00 2.42 19-Mar-12 21:46 =========================================================================== Eiter a 0-0 draw or OVERS game.....MGOFS 3-1. Gl with bets. |
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Doing a CHASE bet .....based on the "LOCO NOTION"
 Fixtures 19 March / Quilmes v Ferro / Correct Score 1 - 1 Lay 19-Mar-12 22:03 10 52.83 10 19-Mar-12 22:09 Fixtures 19 March / Quilmes v Ferro / Correct Score 1 - 1 Lay 19-Mar-12 21:54 9.6 25.83 9.6 19-Mar-12 22:02 |
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About 38mins played ...so taking a chance at least a goal will be scored....laying off most of profit on 0-0...
Fixtures 19 March / Quilmes v Ferro / Correct Score 0 - 0 Lay 19-Mar-12 22:45 5.5 24.00 5.3 19-Mar-12 22:45 All part of the CHASE! |
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Looks like an 0-0 game...but layed 0-0 again ....why not!
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Also eliminated liability on initial lay on 1-1....
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Stayed 0-0 .......so another HIT.
GAME 7 ....another CHASE bet Laying 0-0 in next ARG 2 game.....KO 12.15 a m.....fair chance that in this match a goal will be scored....I hope ! MGOFS 2-1. Laying to gain £150 less commission! Only partly matched ....so far... |
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Fixtures 19 March / Instituto v Chacarita Juniors / Correct Score
0 - 0 Lay 20-Mar-12 00:06 11 150.00 11 20-Mar-12 00:15 GL with bets.......to meeeeeeeeeeeeeee |
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This game loks the type of game where a goal will be scored....so laying 0-0 again...large..
Fixtures 19 March / Instituto v Chacarita Juniors / Correct Score 0 - 0 Lay 20-Mar-12 00:31 8.4 100.00 8.38 20-Mar-12 00:32 IF "WRONG"....END OF THREAD ! |
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1-0 24th min
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Pretty sure more goals in this match....but leaving game alone now....Time for kip
G M the noooooooooooooooo |
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DAY 29 RESULTS
Soccer: -£97.81 LOSS Soccer Showing 1 - 9 of 9 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) ================================================================ Soccer / Instituto v Chacarita Juniors : Correct Score 20-Mar-12 00:15 20-Mar-12 02:05 239.75 =================================================================== Soccer / Quilmes v Ferro : Over/Under 2.5 goals 19-Mar-12 22:10 20-Mar-12 00:06 -42.00 Soccer / Quilmes v Ferro : Correct Score 19-Mar-12 22:10 20-Mar-12 00:06 -26.62 ================================================================== Soccer / Espanyol v Santander : Correct Score 19-Mar-12 20:00 19-Mar-12 21:52 46.03 ==================================================================== Soccer / Roma v Genoa : Correct Score 19-Mar-12 19:45 19-Mar-12 21:38 -445.40 ===================================================================== Soccer / Cottbus v Fortuna Dusseldorf : Over/Under 2.5 goals 19-Mar-12 19:15 19-Mar-12 21:07 -15.00 ====================================================================== Soccer / Cottbus v Fortuna Dusseldorf : Correct Score 19-Mar-12 19:15 19-Mar-12 21:06 62.00 ======================================================================= Soccer / Besiktas v Manisaspor : Half Time/Full Time 19-Mar-12 18:00 19-Mar-12 20:00 17.26 ======================================================================== Soccer / Spartak Moscow v CSKA Moscow : Correct Score 19-Mar-12 15:30 19-Mar-12 17:24 66.17 ======================================================================== Big HIT in ROMA game , so a loss again on day. There were "personal circumstances" that probably efected me choosing 1-0 to lay in ROMA match.....so the lay made was a "daft" one. No goals in the first late ARG 2 game led to another relatively small HIT and triggered me staking heavily on the 2nd ARG 2 game. I was "happy" with size of stakes on that match, as just strongly believed goals would be scored when watching match...and only needed 1 for lay on 0-0 to "win". The final score was 3-1....... so "happy" with judgment on that game and staking! This may well be what I should be doing with football matches. Watching a match...then betting, as games where a goal is very very likely tend to stand out when watching them ( also you use the knowledge you have on players/team styles as well etc ). May "experiment" a bit for some games where I want to watch game for a bit BEFORE doing a main bet. GL with bets today. |
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SUMMARY ON THREAD -
DAY 1........profit £ 39.70 DAY 2........profit...41.32 DAY 3........profit...50.63 DAY 4........profit...54.10 DAY 5........profit..146.94 DAY 6........LOSS.(1,077.06) DAY 7........profit..230.56 DAY 8........profit..108.09 DAY 9........profit...71.27 DAY 10.......profit..147.50 DAY 11.......profit..115.58 DAY 12.......LOSS.(. 584.60) DAY 13.......profit..339.83 DAY 14.......LOSS.(.226.17) DAY 15.......profit...13.86 DAY 16.......profit...59.60 DAY 17.......profit..197.58 DAY 18.......profit..429.33 DAY 19.......LOSS..(..86.94) DAY 20.......LOSS..(..43.43) DAY 21.......LOSS..(.369.89) DAY 22.......LOSS..(..11.23) DAY 23.......profit..216.27 DAY 24.......profit...52.68 DAY 25.......profit..243.47 DAY 26.......profit...14.58 DAY 27.......profit..314.91 DAY 28.......LOSS..(.478.79) DAY 29.......LOSS..(..97.81) --------- CUMULATIVE LOSS £(..89.02) |
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DFC,
2.2K liability on a Arg2 match ... if this is not HUGE over staking then what it is? I think I know the frustration feelings after a HIT which make you acting a bit irrationally ... also being almost 500 up and touching the ground 0 again might have affected your decisions ... my personal advice is to take 2-3 days break, calm down a bit and get out from this spiral that has a foreseeable result: end of thread. good luck! |
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What about horses? Have you updated your system? Are the results positive?
My second football BOT started very well with 3/3 winnings this weekend. My approach is the same as you mentioned 2-3 posts ago: watch the game stats and put a bet at low odds (usually odds of 1.5 - 3.0). |
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Will respond later A.....helping with tea at present...and FOOTBALL about to start....
GAME 1 Fixtures 20 March / Galatasaray v Sivasspor / Half Time Score 0 - 0 Lay 20-Mar-12 17:11 4.5 24.00 4.5 20-Mar-12 17:11 ================================================================= TURKISH cup and GALA looked to be a team coming into strong form.....Fair chance a goal scored 1st half. MGOFS 3-1. Gl with bets. |
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mate lay 0-0 in blackburn game i tell you every week or back over 1.5 and trade it. free money my friend
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GAME 2
Fixtures 20 March / Osasuna v Getafe / Correct Score 0 - 1 Lay 20-Mar-12 18:51 11.5 66.00 11.5 20-Mar-12 18:51 ================================================================ Just believe OSA will be fresher team of two....and arre likely to score. MGOFS 2-1. GL with bets. |
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Away to check game out 1st S
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Not keen on the BLACKBURN game......Both teams I suspect will fancy beating BOLTON ( BLACK)and also FA CUP (SUND)....so difficult to see past a DRAW here....
MGOFS ...0-0/1-1.....If wrong...one of em might win 1-0 /0-1...and not sure which one. PASS on this one S...but GL ..... |
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GAME 3
Fixtures 20 March / Juventus v AC Milan / Correct Score 0 - 1 Lay 20-Mar-12 19:11 13.5 66.00 13.5 20-Mar-12 19:11 ================================================================= MILAN losing from 1st leg 1-2.....and fair chance they have minds on BARCA CL game soon...and ROMA next....Just likely JUVE score or stays 0-0. MGOFS is 2-0 or 3-0. GL with bets. |
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Why do you continually use "speech" "marks"?
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GAME 1 ...2ND STAGE BETS AFTER HIT ON 1ST....
Fixtures 20 March / Galatasaray v Sivasspor / Correct Score 0 - 1 Back 20-Mar-12 19:24 13.5 4.00 13.75 20-Mar-12 19:24 Fixtures 20 March / Galatasaray v Sivasspor / Correct Score 1 - 0 Lay 20-Mar-12 19:24 4.1 24.00 4.1 20-Mar-12 19:24 Fixtures 20 March / Galatasaray v Sivasspor / Correct Score 0 - 2 Back 20-Mar-12 19:23 36 2.47 36 20-Mar-12 19:24 Fixtures 20 March / Galatasaray v Sivasspor / Correct Score 2 - 0 Back 20-Mar-12 19:24 6.4 6.00 6.4 20-Mar-12 19:24 Fixtures 20 March / Galatasaray v Sivasspor / Correct Score 1 - 1 Back 20-Mar-12 19:23 9.6 9.00 9.64 20-Mar-12 19:23 Fixtures 20 March / Galatasaray v Sivasspor / Over/Under 2.5 goals Over 2.5 Goals Back 20-Mar-12 19:23 3.65 33.00 3.65 20-Mar-12 19:23 Just believe there will be at least 2 goals 2nd half.....MGOFS 2-1 or 1-2. Gl with bets. |
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Eliminating liability on 0-1 in OSA game...with £36 on at 21s
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GAME 4 IP AFTER HT AT 0-0
Fixtures 20 March / Blackburn v Sunderland / Correct Score 1 - 1 Lay 20-Mar-12 20:50 7.8 24.00 7.8 20-Mar-12 20:50 TIGHT game ...so either stays 0-0 or 1-0 or 0-1....probably...I hope. GL with bets. |
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2-0 BLACKBURN....hope they can hang on Smithy
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GAME 5
Fixtures 20 March / Emelec v Lanus / Correct Score 0 - 1 Lay 20-Mar-12 21:53 10 60.00 10 20-Mar-12 21:53 ================================================================== Home team likely to be difficult to score against....and likely to win. MGOFS is 2-0. Gl with bets. |
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How to use quotation marks
There is only one use of quotation marks (or quotes, speech marks, or inverted commas, as they are often called): to enclose a direct quotation [Hamlet's most famous speech begins: "To be or not to be".] Note 1: Strictly speaking, the only punctuation marks that should go inside the quotation marks are those that are part of the quotation itself. [He screamed out "Help me!" and so I went to his aid.] Note 2: International practice varies on whether quotation marks should be double or single (I use double) but, when one has a quotation within a quotation, one uses the other type of quotation marks (in my case, single) [He told me: "Your use of the phrase 'in this day and age' is hackneyed".] Note 3: There is a version of quotation marks known informally as scare quotes and these are used when the writer wishes to signify that the quoted word or words are odd or inappropriate or the writer wishes to express irony or even sarcasm. [Daniel was assured that he would be 'safe' in the lion's den.] Note 4: One final use of quotation marks is when one is talking about a word or phrase when one normally uses single quotation marks. [Someone I know overuses the word 'actually'.] |
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acornel 20 Mar 12 13:12
DFC, 2.2K liability on a Arg2 match ... if this is not HUGE over staking then what it is? I think I know the frustration feelings after a HIT which make you acting a bit irrationally ... also being almost 500 up and touching the ground 0 again might have affected your decisions ... my personal advice is to take 2-3 days break, calm down a bit and get out from this spiral that has a foreseeable result: end of thread.good luck! ========================================================================================= "OVER-STAKING" - YUP....it could be argued I OVER-STAKED ........or it could be argued I just did a STRONG BET..... I suppose it all depends on what you feel comfortable with re STAKING. I knew I was doing a big bet on the 0-0 lay in the 2nd ARG DIV 2 game with the first bet placed ( £150 lay on odds for 0-0). After a few minutes watching match....I felt so strongly that a goal WOULD vbe scored that I layed 0-0 again to gain £100 at lowere odds. I don't do such LARGE bets very often......it was just that the bet was so "clear" to me that i just had to place it! It was NOT an "irrational" bet acornel....it was done taking account of stats and watching the game. i just recognised the home team particularly were very skillful and were very very likely to score. It was not a "tired" bet....but one where it was a "clear" bet..... I agree it is an extremely "risky" way to bet.....but the rewards were IMO "value" on that game. It was , as usual, an odds-on bet......so STAKING a large amount where you "see" clear signs that a goal WILL be scored, and plenty time for it to be scored, are one way to bet. LEVEL STAKING is an inefficient way to bet.......as no account taken of "value" in the bet or how much of an "edge" you consider you have on weighing up the bet. I risked about 66% of funds currently using on BF......but have other funds ...if needed.....so the % of "bank" usd was far lower than 66%. I doubt I will see such a "clear" bet often.......but am prepared to risk up to 33% of BF bank on such odds on bets....if i feel strongly enough about the bet. The bet in GAME 5 might be considered as OVER STAKING.......but I'm "happy" with bet whether i win or lose. I suspect it could be 0-1 at some point in game.....but still believe the home team will score......so the risk reward is reasonable on the bet....but of course this is just subjective view on the bet. You are generally "right" acornel that my STAKING can be a CHASE bet....which often it will be......but with CS LAYS sometimes it is the way to bet IMO. Has not paid off for me yet....but feel i am close to getting act together and making good profit....so still too early on thread to arrive at a conclusion as to whether I will por won't. Thanks for the view though.... ==================================================================== acornel 20 Mar 12 13:16 What about horses? Have you updated your system? Are the results positive? My second football BOT started very well with 3/3 winnings this weekend. My approach is the same as you mentioned 2-3 posts ago: watch the game stats and put a bet at low odds (usually odds of 1.5 - 3.0). ================================================================================== Nope...still working now and then updating trainer stats....will take me til end of month. there has been some personal circumstances effecting the amount of time I have had available to me that needed my attention.... However, I have been doing some betting last couple weeks and this is to get myself "up to speed" on how season is progressing. With small bets i am making approx £100 a day from football and finding it relative "easy" to do so. KEY FACTORS are still the same, so the "system" will still work well when used...... I could probably up the stakes on current betting on HORSES....but as I am just ad-libbing from race to race...without using a structured way to rate races etc.....other than using my heid .....   ....then will just do this til end of month, and by then should be "ready to go" using system....You are definitely betting far more "sensibly" IP acornel than what I'm doing....Hopefully BOTH will make a profit from efforts!!!!! Better go watch match... Cheers the noooooooooooooooo |
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LANUS 0-1 already.........well should make it a more interesting game to watch!!!!!
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DAY 30 RESULTS
Soccer: £109.31 PROFIT Soccer Showing 1 - 8 of 8 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) =============================================================== Soccer / Emelec v Lanus : Correct Score 20-Mar-12 23:15 21-Mar-12 01:07 57.54 ============================================================== Soccer / Juventus v AC Milan : Correct Score 20-Mar-12 19:45 20-Mar-12 21:55 63.29 =============================================================== Soccer / Blackburn v Sunderland : Correct Score 20-Mar-12 20:00 20-Mar-12 21:53 23.02 =============================================================== Soccer / Osasuna v Getafe : Correct Score 20-Mar-12 19:00 20-Mar-12 20:49 63.29 Soccer / Osasuna v Getafe : Match Odds 20-Mar-12 19:00 20-Mar-12 20:48 -36.00 ================================================================ Soccer / Galatasaray v Sivasspor : Correct Score 20-Mar-12 18:30 20-Mar-12 20:25 55.17 Soccer / Galatasaray v Sivasspor : Over/Under 2.5 goals 20-Mar-12 18:30 20-Mar-12 20:25 -33.00 Soccer / Galatasaray v Sivasspor : Half Time Score 20-Mar-12 18:30 20-Mar-12 19:17 -84.00 =================================================================== Usual "bad start" re TURKISH game.....however, with a late goal in LANUS match avoiding a big HIT enabled a good profit for day to be made ( made over £170 as well on HORSES acornel....and it feels "easier" and"easier" re HORSES as each day comes). Will post cumulative figs later today. G M the nooooooo |
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SUMMARY ON THREAD -
DAY 1........profit £ 39.70 DAY 2........profit...41.32 DAY 3........profit...50.63 DAY 4........profit...54.10 DAY 5........profit..146.94 DAY 6........LOSS.(1,077.06) DAY 7........profit..230.56 DAY 8........profit..108.09 DAY 9........profit...71.27 DAY 10.......profit..147.50 DAY 11.......profit..115.58 DAY 12.......LOSS.(. 584.60) DAY 13.......profit..339.83 DAY 14.......LOSS.(.226.17) DAY 15.......profit...13.86 DAY 16.......profit...59.60 DAY 17.......profit..197.58 DAY 18.......profit..429.33 DAY 19.......LOSS..(..86.94) DAY 20.......LOSS..(..43.43) DAY 21.......LOSS..(.369.89) DAY 22.......LOSS..(..11.23) DAY 23.......profit..216.27 DAY 24.......profit...52.68 DAY 25.......profit..243.47 DAY 26.......profit...14.58 DAY 27.......profit..314.91 DAY 28.......LOSS..(.478.79) DAY 29.......LOSS..(..97.81) DAY 30.......profit..109.31 --------- CUMULATIVE PROFIT £..20.29 Getting what might happen "wrong" with many games, but as I select games where I am aware both teams are capable of scoring, or one of teams is exceptionally good at creating chances to score, then I can often get away with such "wrong" views on outcome by there being an extra goal than the score layed. LANUS game never looked like the home tea were going to score 2nd half ( at 0-1), so was very "lucky" to escape a HIT on the 0-1 lay through a late penalty for LANUS.(LANUS never looked like scoring either 2nd half or most of 1st half...they got early goal and were happy to defend their lead....It took a set-piece for the to get 2nd goal, otherwise 0-1 it would have remained ...probably.) This is FOOTBALL betting though, so "LUCK" element is needed for me to have any chance of makinga good profit. Still believe it is possible, but early on I tend to opt for matches that are not games where strong view held, and same late on sometimes, so selectivity on games needs to be improved before I will have a chance to win good money re FOOTBALL betting. Getting early HITS is not "good" for trying to make a profit.......Through being more selective on games bet on, and staking higher amounts, then this is what I should be doing at this stage on thread. So , from now on, will only bet on games where I feel the bet has STRONG chance of winning. Most of my bets have been on CS LAYS, and some of biggest winners betting on CS LAYS have done so through risking say £1,000 and going all-in on each game until they have achieved a good profit, then banking profit and starting a new run etc. I don't intend to bet that way, but my staking is likely to be more aggressive on games selected, as they will be considered to be STRONG BETS. Gl with bets today. |
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GAME 1
Fixtures 21 March / Gijon v Mallorca / Correct Score 0 - 1 Lay 21-Mar-12 18:38 10.5 120.00 10.5 21-Mar-12 18:38 ======================================================================================== GIJON have had 1 more days rest between matches....and the away team have had some tough games in last 3......so the home team are likely to try to grab an early goal. MGOFS is 2-1 or 1-0. GL with bets. |
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GAME 2
Fixtures 21 March / Tottenham v Stoke / Half Time/Full Time Draw/Draw Lay 21-Mar-12 18:45 7.8 120.00 7.8 21-Mar-12 18:45 ====================================================================== STOKE likely to feel effects of their FA cup loss.......and SPURS should be capable of creating chances to score...and take at least 2 of them. MGOFS is 3-1. GL with bets. |
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GAME 3
Fixtures 21 March / Man City v Chelsea / Correct Score 0 - 1 Lay 21-Mar-12 18:51 17 66.00 17 21-Mar-12 18:51 ========================================================================== MAN CITY had plenty time to prepare for this match.....and AGUERO just likely to score. MGOFS is 3-1. GL with bets. |
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Currently 0-0 in SPURS game in 2nd half.....so trying to "protect" position IF a goal scored....(initial bet being a LAY on DRAW/DRAW)
Fixtures 21 March / Tottenham v Stoke / Correct Score 1 - 1 Back 21-Mar-12 21:06 14 3.00 14 21-Mar-12 21:06 Fixtures 21 March / Tottenham v Stoke / Correct Score 3 - 3 Back 21-Mar-12 21:06 420 2.00 420 21-Mar-12 21:06 Fixtures 21 March / Tottenham v Stoke / Correct Score 2 - 2 Back 21-Mar-12 21:06 100 10.00 100 21-Mar-12 21:06 Fixtures 21 March / Tottenham v Stoke / Correct Score 1 - 1 Back 21-Mar-12 21:05 14 60.00 14 21-Mar-12 21:06 Fixtures 21 March / Tottenham v Stoke / Correct Score 0 - 0 Lay 21-Mar-12 21:05 2.78 84.00 2.72 21-Mar-12 21:05 |