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@Feck. If the assumption is that this is being traded by BF PC payers, then is it not fair to suggest that your example is redundant?
AvB Somebody lays @ 2.00 for 10k, you back @ 2.00 for 10k, but if you are a PC payer you will also opposed that bet. Now if both A and B make 400 for their trade, then Smarkets pick up 16 dollars in commission. A little less than your 200 figure. Now unless they are on 2% with BF, they can't make money doing that, unless they have pure gamblers betting also. Now if you take your AvB example again, explain to me how every bet placed with them doesn't have somebody laying and somebody backing, at the same odds, for the same amount. If I back something at 2.00, somebody must have layed it. Makes no sense them then putting the same bets on BF. They can't make money out of BF, they can't do anything except produce 0 profit trades with them by replicating the bets they receive on their own server. Now in your example, they pay no commission on BF, but pick up 200 in commission on their own server. Now if they didn't place any bets on BF, would they still pay BF no commission but pick up 200 from their own site? Doesn't really make sense the argument that BF are paying them to succeed their business when I can't understand what BF are actually paying them or what money they are taking from BF in any sense. If anything, they would just be losing some of their profits by using BF. |
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BJT, I already said they'd have a problem if they only attracted PC payers as their own betfair account would quickly be in PC territory as well. I don't really get the rest of your argument though. Certainly if me and the other guy submit our 10K's simultaneously there's no point them hedging the bets on betfair but that's unlikely to happen. If they're only paying betfair 2% while charging their own customers the same, and every bet placed with them is hedged on betfair, they must end up at worst breaking even on every market. Doing that is risk free but you seem to be suggesting it's in their interests to echo everything on betfair and then stand the bets. That would be suicidal.
I always wondered why betd@q (or sporting options for that matter) didn't use this approach before the clowns at betfair realised having parasites operating virtually commission free wasn't on and introduced the pc. Both were charging less commission but the complaints always centered around lack of liquidity. |
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* they must end up at worst breaking even on any individual market
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AvB Somebody lays @ 2.00 for 10k, you back @ 2.00 for 10k, but if you are a PC payer you will also opposed that bet.
I'm a pc payer and I wouldn't oppose my own bet. |
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if your bf bet wins then your still paying the pc right? i guess if you put in a back of 2 when it should be 100 in an obscure market and manage to lay your bet on another site at 2 then there is every chance your pc will be massively reduced and you only pay the 2% com to this mirror site.
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A fair observation getintheir. Of course you risk ending up with the back and not getting the lay.
PS One other way they'll make a profit. The betfair odds might change in the other exchange's favour. e.g. They echo betfair's offer of 3.2, you try to match their offer, they submit the bet to betfair and get matched at 3.3 but they only give you 3.2. Like I said earlier, if the price moves the other way and they don't get matched then neither will you. |