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the big bossman
16 Dec 11 00:06
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Date Joined: 05 Dec 08
| Topic/replies: 441 | Blogger: the big bossman's blog
Phone bets boost Betfair profits
(UKPA) – 1 day ago 
A surge in betting on mobile phones and the growing popularity of wagers on football helped online gambling firm Betfair post record first-half profits.
The company, which allows punters to set their own odds and bet against one another, said it had made "a very strong start" to the football season, while bets on tennis, cricket and golf also saw growth.
Revenues were also boosted by a doubling in the number of bets made from mobile phones to 16 million after it introduced an app especially for horse racing.
These trends helped underlying profits rise 36% to £42.4 million in the six months to October 31 as the company which floated on the stock market just over a year ago announced a maiden interim dividend.
Betfair said the growth of mobile gaming continued in its third quarter, with 41% of customers using a phone to place a bet in November, accounting for about 9% of its revenues.
Betting revenues through its online exchange increased 7% in the six months.
Betfair claimed its exchange continued to offer customers a better chance of winning than a traditional bookmaker even after it takes its commission. It said 28% of the punters on its exchange made an overall profit in the first half.
Its most recent profits were also boosted after it implemented price changes for a small number of customers.
The group is trialling a much faster website and plans to introduce mobile gaming to allow customers to play casino games on the move.
James Cooke, an analyst at Panmure Gordon, said the group's profits were higher than City expectations and forecast that it will make full-year bottom-line profits of £49 million, rising to £72.5 million the following year.
Copyright © 2011 The Press Associa

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Replies: 66
By:
the big bossman
When: 16 Dec 11 00:07
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5gO3QMD3BogluBzaRXA22E6IoMVAA?docId=N0450771323868803909A
By:
the big bossman
When: 16 Dec 11 00:08
Its most recent profits were also boosted after it implemented price changes for a small number of customers.
By:
tobermory
When: 16 Dec 11 00:45
28% in profit over 6 months should mean 10-15% long term i'd guess.

Will come as a shock to all those who post '0.5%' of users make a profit . Think they confuse it with a stat on the number that made £15k a year from about 2006
By:
TheVis
When: 16 Dec 11 09:48
would love to know how much they are making from the PC.  I bet that accounts for a large share of this upsurge in profitability.
By:
apunta
When: 16 Dec 11 10:04
I saw a report that 23% made a profit last year (makes sense that it is lower than in a 6 month period)

how does this compare, ie what % of customers at a bookie will make a net profit in a year? presumably much lower as they will close you down / you get worse prices?
By:
Slicer
When: 16 Dec 11 11:26
Absolute RUBBISH!
We all know ITCANTBEDONE unless the 28% making money are using printing presses to make it!

You cant make prophets laying at above the true odds PLUS paying commission PLUS Premium Tax.

You cant make it backing when football managers put out a reserve side and then complain when they dont get through, or hoarseracing jokies give "tender" rides to stone cold certinties. You cant make it trading cos you get caught out once in a while eliminating your prophets and more. You cant make it at dog racing when trap 5 with no form wins going clear at a price of 15.

Gambollers are often delusional. The 28% figure is a publicity stunt. Dont delude yourselves.

I don't care what is said, written or heard, ITCANTBEDONE!

I hope this clarifies the matter.
By:
DivideByZeroError
When: 16 Dec 11 11:37
On the other hand it's difficult for everyone to be a loser, in fact that would only happen if everyone was roughly flat before commission/PC.

For every backer there is a layer (obviously) so the money must be going somewhere, even if we were all betting completely ignorant of the true odds.

If we knew a bit more about the size (relative to total bank) and frequency of punters' bets we could do some analysis to determine if 28% being in profit over 6 months indicated that there were experts out there or if you'd get a similar result with the proverbial room full of monkeys.
By:
acquiesce12
When: 16 Dec 11 11:39
I don't care what is said, written or heard, ITCANTBEDONE!

I hope this clarifies the matter.



No it doesn't clarify anything given you haven't provided any factual information regarding the true figures.

Only Betfair know what % of their punters are long term winners.
By:
Slicer
When: 16 Dec 11 11:42
AND it is in their interest to perpetuate the rumours that ITCANBEDONE by 28% when the reality of it is that only true PROPUNTERS, insiders and mathematical geniuses can make it worthwhile.

I hope this posting adds further clarification of the matter.
By:
apunta
When: 16 Dec 11 11:42
the 28% figure is stated in BF's results announcement - see page 4 here: http://corporate.betfair.com/investor-relations/~/media/Files/B/Betfair/press-releases/2011/2011-12-14.pdf


they can't make stuff up for publicity in stock exchange announcements - auditors wouldn't allow it.
By:
The Magician (100)
When: 16 Dec 11 11:42
The vis

PC is generating about 7-8 M a quater accoring to my various calculations and discussions
By:
Slicer
When: 16 Dec 11 11:48
I dont care what it says in the results announcement.

Remember the saying by that famous philosopher Aristotle Slicer: "There are lies, damn lies, statistics, form and then there are stock exchange announcements!"

I hope this enhances the understanding of all BetFairians of popularly believed myths.
By:
acquiesce12
When: 16 Dec 11 11:50
AND it is in their interest to perpetuate the rumours that ITCANBEDONE by 28% when the reality of it is that only true PROPUNTERS, insiders and mathematical geniuses can make it worthwhile.

I hope this posting adds further clarification of the matter



Probably the most false post I've ever read on betfair - you don't need to be any of them things.

You don't need to be an insider, a mathematical genuis or use  trading software bots or courtsiding to be a long term winner - that is a fact.you simply need hard work and an edge - is that what you're calling a true pro punter ?I've made a living from tennis - all manuel - the average man on the street can do this.
By:
DivideByZeroError
When: 16 Dec 11 12:13
You don't even need to be long-term profitable to be in the 28%.

You could have made three £10 bets on the cricket over the course of six months and be up a few quid.
By:
kevin7654
When: 16 Dec 11 13:04
Magician-Stephen Morana stated that the premium charge was contributing 4% of core revenue at the interim results webcast.Full year core revenue last year was £330 million or so ,which means premium charge will be around £13 million for the year.
By:
i_agree_with_nick
When: 16 Dec 11 13:52
Whether or not 28% is accurate, profits on Betfair may be masked by losses on other exchanges and with bookmakers resulting from trades, arbs etc
By:
apunta
When: 16 Dec 11 14:11
"Whether or not 28% is accurate, profits on Betfair may be masked by losses on other exchanges and with bookmakers resulting from trades, arbs etc"

or losses on Betfair may be masked by profits on other exchange etc...
By:
The Magician (100)
When: 16 Dec 11 14:12
kevin7654

he would obviously know more than me.... and I did not listen to the webcast

was it 4% of exchange betting of 4% of total company Rev?
was he refering to a period that had full PC operational
was he refering to the additional PC or old PC also?

not disputing it - just that 13M could be closer to my 28m est, if some of the above qualifications are not made...

maybe it is 13M or less, but that surprises me looking at the data...
By:
Do wah Diddy
When: 16 Dec 11 14:23
I AGREE WITH SLICER ,THERES 28% WINNERS OUT THERE ,THATS 28 OUT OF EVERY HUNDRED ,IF YOU DONT KNOW WHAT A % IS,THAT MEANS IF THEY HAVE 100000CUSTOMERS WHICH THEY HAVE MORE THATS 10000 AND I DONT KNOW EVEN ONE

  DONT BELIEVE EVERYTHING YOU READ ,

GO TO GAMBLE ANNONOMOUSES AND ASK HOW MANY WINNERS THEY KNOW
By:
Do wah Diddy
When: 16 Dec 11 14:25
SORRY 28000 WINNERS NOT 10000 WINNERS ,I PUT THE WRONG FIGURE BECAUSE IM GETTING MY MAD UP
By:
Slicer
When: 16 Dec 11 14:39
Mr Diddy makes sense.
Thank you, as always, for your valued second opinion.
By:
RonaldinhoRAT
When: 16 Dec 11 14:55
28%!! any Tom **** or Harry, thought i was special.

Active customers down 79,000 from 579,000 to 500,000 caught my eye thought it would still be growing.
By:
abolo
When: 16 Dec 11 15:00
Slicer, i think you are mistaking "making a profit" with "making enough profit to support a family" . Any punter/trader with a brain working and more importantly enough experience can make a small profit over a year, it doesn't mean it's enough money to live on that and that he doesn't need a job. Therefore, 28% is nothing surprising, it should even be closer of 50% if there was less punters betting anyhow but that's because their lack of experience.
By:
Slicer
When: 16 Dec 11 15:14
You are partially correct. Anyone can make a prophet, but the secret is keeping it and maintaining and continuing to make prophets over the long term.

Anyway, logging off now- time for tiffin having made my £2 prophet for the month.
By:
abolo
When: 16 Dec 11 15:17
Very good, if you keep this rythm over a year, you can buy a beautiful £12 cake for Christmas
By:
abolo
When: 16 Dec 11 15:18
£24 , more precisely, i have issues with mathematics
By:
TheManIsAGent
When: 16 Dec 11 15:19
I only joined for the diary - think my postie must have nicked it though Cry
By:
Eddie the eagle
When: 16 Dec 11 15:25
kevin and magician, yes it will depend on what he said or meant. It looks like PC will give Betfair something between £ 13 - 28 million the first year with PC3.
  I'm guessing 28 millions will be closer to the truth,especially after seeing this in the report :

   Non-risk sports revenue, which is predominantly commission generated on the Exchange, increased by 9% in the period to £124.2m and performed well in both quarters. In Q1, non-risk revenue was flat despite the World Cup in the prior year and was up 20% in Q2. [b]Growth in the second quarter included the impact of targeted pricing changes,[/b] a good start to the football season and continued strong growth in other sports, particularly tennis, cricket and golf.

The part in bold is highlighted by me.
By:
askari1
When: 16 Dec 11 15:27
There is an enormous difference w/ respect to the company's overall health and growth between its making roughly 4.25 mill. a quarter from pc and its making 8 million.

Were the second the case, all of its growth and a bit more (16 million out of growth of about 12 million) wd come from the charge, meaning that bf's exchange model w/out significant modification and had reached maximum headroom and was indeed losing users to dissatisfaction and churn.

If this is true (and I have no idea) then the pc comes over as a desperate measure put in place b/c the company has otherwise gone ex-growth in its core business. This is hardly a proposition to put before investors.

If I were an analyst or investor, I wd be pushing bf for an utterly clear explanation of the contribution made to profit growth by non-commission charges.
By:
Eddie the eagle
When: 16 Dec 11 15:31
askari, PC3 has only been in place full for the last financial quarter, and two weeks of the first quarter.
By:
Eddie the eagle
When: 16 Dec 11 15:34
May actually only be one week of the first quarter.
  You also have to take into consideration that they did make money from PC before July 18th too.
By:
askari1
When: 16 Dec 11 15:42
Eddie, OK, but that wd still account for all the growth if we take pc as bringing in 16 mill. per half-year.

If growing sports like football and tennis are making a contribution to profit growth, then turnover on horses, their core market, wd appear to be declining.

Is this plausible? What contribution does pc make to bottom-line profits? Is it in the order of 20-25%?
By:
askari1
When: 16 Dec 11 15:46
I agree that I'm in the dark not knowing what %age of profits come from pc1 & 2 i.e. before the massive clawback from big historic winners.

W/ the decline in active bettors, I can still believe they have gone ex-growth in pre-IR UK horses.

The implication is the customer proposition of better prices doesn't work; its benefit is captured by third parties up to the point where company intervention in terms of a different pricing system discourages participation entirely.
By:
Eddie the eagle
When: 16 Dec 11 15:58
[i]Horse racing revenue also increased in the period (up 5% year on year), driven primarily by growth in international racing as well as product improvements, such as our mobile racing app. We have invested in content such as the new ‘Donald McCain Zone’ to complement our existing racing ambassador, Paul Nicholls and will shortly be launching a new TV based marketing campaign to promote our racing product.[/i]

It looks like no growth in UK horse racing, maybe even a small decline.
By:
yeahyeahwhatever
When: 16 Dec 11 16:22
re: they can't make stuff up for publicity in stock exchange announcements - auditors wouldn't allow it.

The would if they were EU auditors...
By:
TheManIsAGent
When: 16 Dec 11 16:25
apunta     16 Dec 11 11:42 
they can't make stuff up for publicity in stock exchange announcements - auditors wouldn't allow it.


How naive are you? Auditors, actuaries, accountants, they all make things up - it is a requirement of the job.
By:
askari1
When: 16 Dec 11 16:57
Eddie, that's how I see it, and their answer is a 'Donald McCain zone'--a skilful, personable, up-and-coming trainer, though I'm sure they asked bigger names first...

They can't see the probs. w/ a model that (excepting IR) relies on people failing to discriminate w/ regards to price i.e. meaning on average that traders are advantaged over small bettors. They think they can get by by bleeding the successful traders, w/out regard for the consequences of this on the price price-taking punters end up getting.
By:
TheManIsAGent
When: 16 Dec 11 17:06
Too many accountants = no strategy, no vision, no imagination = stagnation, followed by decline.

^ This is a tried and tested formula, it never fails.
By:
Coachbuster
When: 16 Dec 11 17:17
I thought most of you guys had a Public school  education / degrees in Human Anthropology ?  Shocked

It's OBVIOUS why 28% make a profit - do i really need to spell it out ?
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