General Betting
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VALUE?
VALUE?
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Replies: 379
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Not my rating system.
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YUP ...would be interesting to state which one you would back BEFORE the race TOWF.........or did you back BOTH the value ones ( ie ignore the favourite)?
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I also claim that if a dog starts at 5.0, and you matched it at 5.0, it doesn't matter whether it blows or firms, it will win 20% of its starts. Hence it doesn't matter if it blows or firms for good or bad reasons. It will win 20% of its starts.
My statistics certainly disprove that myth. If what you say were to be true, all you'd have to do is back any horse that blew in the market and you'd be getting overs everytime! If a horse is even money and you take that even money and it blows to 2/1, you're saying that it still has a 50% chance of winning. Which is impossible. The software can update Betfair odds 15 times a second (I'm told) compared to Betfair's once every 15 seconds, and can fire in bets unnoticeable to the Betfair punter when conditions are optimal, plus other personalised excel features. One thing I do know. If traders are showing a profit, its not other traders who are paying them. That's impossible. I'm not a trader, but I use the same software as traders for bet placement and it plugs into my excel spreadsheet and can fire bets with the same speed as traders have. I believe other traders are paying them and not position takers. All that money that gets turned over is not joe blogs punter money, it's mostly (by percentage) traders trying to outwit other traders. Not all traders win, only a slim percentage of them actually win, although youtube says they do  Traders as a group don't win, but individual traders do. If it was that easy, everyone would do it, and the developer forums of trading applications wouldn't be full of hard luck stories. It's not a matter of simply reading price swings, you have to be able to predict track movements and evade spoof money, internet problems, api problems, commission and premium charges. That's why liquidity has dropped massively. |
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^ and outages!
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Some might argue that as your top rated one was 5-4 SP......that it was the value one........
Not being critical of your RATINGS....... just you really should state what your selection would be based on VALUE ...BEFORE race, as then the VALUE position is clear on this thread. GL with bets.... |
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Beat The Overound: It seems to me you know what you are talking about. I also suspected liquidity has dropped off massively.
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DFCIRONMAN 26 Nov 11 14:58
Some might argue that as your top rated one was 5-4 SP......that it was the value one........ Not being critical of your RATINGS....... just you really should state what your selection would be based on VALUE ...BEFORE race, as then the VALUE position is clear on this thread. GL with bets.... I would have thought that with two horses rated 10 and 11 clear of the fav that is was fairly obvious.The jockey/trainer percent was close enough so it screened value in a race where horses are likely to give their running. When i posted the fav was odds on. |
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"obviously" it is clear to yersel TOWF....as you know what your figures mean....but for us in cheapseats.......we/I may have thought the % figures shown were your RATINGS.......
Just not clear that you meant the figures in middle as your ratings....... Most ratings are on either on left outer or right outer....not usually in middle..... So presumably you would back BOTH 2nd and 3rd favourites in that race.....as both were at VALUE odds....which is understandable..... As you will have noted from others posts....your figures, without explanation of what you have as TOP RATED etc......, were/are not that clear to most I suspect. Now that you are stating it is figures in middle....this helps. GL with bets. |
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Sorry 9 and 10 clear
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If you're looking for value, look no further:
http://www.oocities.org/tbtho/baxsys.htm Early Christmas present  |
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If your are clever work this simple equation out.
Seven people go to dinner .They all shake hands to greet each other. How many hand shakes are possible. |
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84
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try again
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21
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or 144
but I'm not "clever" |
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Depends if any 1 arm ones are there..................
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Have asked that question around the world and its frighting to know why so many people get it wrong.Correct answer.When you are out ask it and you WILL see what i say.
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If your are.......................is not so clever though
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as you cannot shake hands with yourself 6 5 4 3 2 1 =21
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Each hand can shake 1 person's HANDS....so 4 shakes meeting 1 person.....All depends how you shake hands!
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24/20/16/12/8/4= 84
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I'm knackered by now ...so brain not in gear!
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?
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AB Form HORSE Est 50d
4 12636 Broughtons Paradis 34.5 34J/T:10-19-77 13%-38% 6 16229 Ghufa 31. 5J/T:5-7-29 17%-41% 8 60131 Mazij 31 28J/T:9-6-37 24%-41% 10 625 Global 30.5 28.5J/T:4-7-18 22%-61% |
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"possible" is the key.......................
RT hand shakes each of other person's hands= 2 LT hand shakes each of other person's hands= 2 So it is possible to have 4 handshakes on meeting 1 person.... 6 people to meet = 6 x 4 = 24 ...etc etc |
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If your are clever work this simple equation out.
Seven people go to dinner .They all shake hands to greet each other. How many hand shakes are possible. hello . |
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The correct and obvious answer is of course 21. You don't have to be clever to figure out that, but the way you ask the question, it sounds like a trick question.
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Eddie the eagle 26 Nov 11 19:10
The correct and obvious answer is of course 21. You don't have to be clever to figure out that, but the way you ask the question, it sounds like a trick question. Ask your friends that same question and result will be 1 out of ten people get it. The other nine are left thinking. Try it out!!!! |
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I know many will struggle with this, but still imo it doesn't make you clever to figure that one out.
The knowledge of maths and ability to solve equations like that among the average person in the street is shockingly bad. I'll bet you less than 50 % of adults would give you the correct answer if you asked how much 30 % out of 60 is. |
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I would say the figure of even 40% would be way to high
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How is any of this relevant??? Or is it just showing off?
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920 wolver bad race but
. AB Form HORSE Est 50d 4 2005x Cawdor 27.5 J/T:0-1-12 0%-8% 11 4092 Lennoxwood 26 p26.5J/T:2-10-41 5%-29% 1 82729 Dingaan 24.5 26J/T:0-0-0 0%-0% 3 8833 Cut The Cackle 24.5 p26.0J/T:14-31-178 8%-25% |
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Cooee,
Its relevant because whilst the 7men are shaking hands with each other, an 8th man is picking their pockets  . Now get back to work . |
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You've rated a couple of non-runners.....
9.20 Wolverhampton Cut The Cackle Notified 10.17 AM 9.20 Wolverhampton Dingaan Notified 6.37 PM |
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will modify
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AB Form HORSE Est 50d
4 2005x Cawdor 27.5 11 4092 Lennoxwood 26 p26.5 6 00x89 Yorkshire Pearl 23 p25.0 8 57238 Lethal 21.5 25 |
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min faith in horses rated 55 or less so tread carefully.
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Were you really a jockey?
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Like CAWDOR EW and LETHAL PLACE.....GL
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