Sorry if I'm barging in, I'm not sure of forum etiquette. After having bet for 5 1/2 years on BAGS and doing well for 4 years, then tapering off to a loss for 1 1/2 years, I had my last bet 6 weeks ago, admitting defeat. If I have stuck to an average 1 bet per race, 7 days a week, roughly level stakes all this time with an unchanged selecting method, what different suggestions can account for this change? I've logged in a couple of times lately and I suspect pools have dropped off.

Fellas, please, anyone. It's nearly midnight here and I'm not betting to stay awake. I deposited a total of $2500 Aust in 2006. I turned over $16 million on BAGS and was showing $535,000 profit (after commission) about 18 months ago. I've dropped $50,000 since. My biggest bet was $400. I pay only basic commission (got it down to 2.1%). I have a couple of suspicions as to what accounts for going bad, but I want any answers to be objective. Any suggestions, anyone?

Or alternatively it could simply be variance. Extended losing runs do happen.

For the period between Nov 10 and Apr 11 I lost £100K. Admittedly I have made some tweaks to both stakes and the timing of when my money hits the market but I have recovered and then some. The basic methods have remained the same though. Perhaps you discount variance too easily?

Some very interesting points here.
I believe there are 100 ways to rate races, none of them might be wrong.
What is important is the price you take.
Only after numerous races will value or lack thereof reveal it's colours.
I do believe that jockey trainer combos are already incorporated into the markets here and are in fact overbet.
A hot jockey or hot trainer even at a given meeting will be overbet.
Overall the markets here are as accurate as you can get, but within even a 100% market there can be back or lay value.
I do believe that too many punters chase action and target too many races without a clear ratings strategy.
Also it seems that specialty punters tend to do better.
The harder you work the luckier you get, is probably the most applicable to punters than any other business.
I wonder how much time punters spend researching everything there is to know about a horse and make an effort to go beyond what's in the formguide.
Unfortunately ratings won't tell you if the horse is off it's feed, burned up the track at training, recovering from a virus, has poor blood work, required physio or osteo, got a nail in the hoof etc etc etc.
So for mine, ratings are a starting point.
Market movements may reflect something else, rather than perceived value.
With due respect, breeding and wealthy owners can make trainers look better than they are, horses often make jockeys look good.
Although there are standout jockeys from the way they ride rather than their strike rate. And of course there are jockeys to steer clear from.
Most importantly stay away from any jockey with personal problems!

Because weight carried is such an important factor

Really, all my studies over millions of races seem to reflect that the more weight a horse carries, the greater his chance of winning!
Weight as a handicap is not as much of a handicap as the handicapper would lead us to believe.
It is the way in which it is allocated and the actual weight scale which is ineffective as it stands.

Its not rocket science.It stands up to any test you would like to throw at it.The horse must be highly rated in the context of the event .The trainer WILL employ the best available therefore this cuts the field down considerably .If you cannot make a profit from those few select that qualify then you are going to loose as the facts state.Look at the winners relationship with the trainer as you will find in most cases they do have a strike rate.I have ridden all over the world and one thing that i can say for sure is knowing the animal is a big advantage.Knowing the trainer is an even bigger one.

i have no doubt value does exist from time to time altho i doubt it appears that often, bearing in mind folks usually arrive at a value bet thru there own calculations which may or not be flawed. I do believe someone spending the equivalent time to a full time job doing research and study may pay dividends to some but then is the time and rewards equal to the hrs put in remains to be seen.

in play tennis matches and cricket matches offer value almost all day long altho usually in small ticks but enuff for cash to be made if ure patient enough, im sure with study, trainer and team news racing an footie are the same, but one glaring fact remains to me, that value is in the eye of the beholder which is where all the talk of value imo breaks down.

if u can recognize true value on a regular basis then gd on u but i reckon less than 1 per cent of betfair users either have the skill, commitment and the ability to pull it off long term, gd luck to  those who can the rest i reckon will be contacting wonga on a semi regular basis :-)

Who is wonga?

AB    Form    HORSE    Est    50d
12    0x000      Skylla    27     p25.5
9    80558     Red Cape    31     p32.5J/T:16-30-144 11%-32%

11    6940x      La Capriosa    29.5    
5    72614     Scarlet Rocks    32    34

To be fair i know who he is talking about but i certainly will not name him in a  public forum,
The reason he is called wonga is he does his job to the best and gets paid.
Hope the same is true for everyone but some person has to loose and that is the way it is.
As  is it does not fall out of the sky.

theonlywayforward

Re. those stats you've put up for the 4.00 at Wolverhampton.

Can you explain the bits I've highlighted please?

AB    Form    HORSE    Est    50d
12    0x000      Skylla    27     p25.5
9    80558     Red Cape    31     p32.5J/T:16-30-144 11%-32%

11    6940x      La Capriosa    29.5   
5    72614     Scarlet Rocks    32    34

Thank you.

p= provisional

The man at Bletchley Park just texted me and he said keep them ratings coming please.

To me the market has it wrong for the next in wolver.

AB    Form    HORSE    Est    50d
5    43333     Poker Hospital    32    30.5/T:1-1-5 20%-40%

2    14812     Adranian    28.5    27.5/T:1-0-3 33%-33%

3    53720     Class Monitor    23    10.5J/T:2-2-13 15%-31%

4    775     Princess Kaiulani    18    16J/T:4-2-24 17%-25%

1    7     Jay Peas Jacko    5

Sorry the stats are for the 710

well 2 won anyway ha

2    62611     Sonsie Lass    20.5    16J/T:1-0-2 50%-50%

5    34222     Mount Mcleod    17.5    17J/T:2-15-51 4%-33

6    25073     Monty Fay    16.5    15J/T:1-5-30 3%-20%

7    94522     M J Woodward    15    16J/T:0-0-0 0%-0%

The biggest problem with value is that if you cant understand it then you will live a life without ever finding it!

If we decipher Theonlywayforward's code, will we discover the location of buried treasure??