Lay till the cow comes home

cows

reckon you can make it pay opposing favourites?

am sure many have tried and failed but will have a go.

taylor traded @ 1.3 early in match,psg 1.69 now,maybe trading out the way forward but will stick with lays

so you traded out on the power?

note to self,sign in using longer user name

no didnt trade out,will let all lays run

PSG lay looks a good one, 0-1 down atm.

long way to go though,the power absolutely brilliant tonight,great to watch

over 425k traded on rafa @ 1.06 and under when a set up,hope somebody sweating as much as rafa !

laying 1.5 or shorter ?????

you will lose - stop this at once you absolute moron

So you're about £10 up so far?

Since you changed it to cows you also had to change it to come.One cow cannot comes

thanks for your those kind words ZEALOT,am impressed with those little blue faces,well done.

you are correct green viking,apologies for bad grammer.

lay rafa £200 @ 1.24 = - £48 ( traded @ 3.5 in running )

lay the power £200 @ 1.19 = - £38 ( traded @ 1.3 in running )

lay psg £100 @ 1.33 = + £95 ( 5% bfair tax ) ( 1-0 to nancy boys )

  running total = £5009

interesting thread, will follow

all input,both positive and negative welcome

todays lays

Lay total of 2 sets murray v ferrer £100 @ 1.4

Lay ak bars + 1.5 goals v dynamo moscow ( russian khl ice hockey ) £100 @ 1.45

Lay spurs not to win both halves v villa £150 @ 1.35

tempted to lay mossley @ 1.2 in 3.05 kempton as 3 mile beginners chase but wouldn't wish it to fall

should be 2.05 kempton

todays results

lay 2 sets in murray match £100 @ 1.4 = - £40 ( didn't see 2-0 ferrer coming )

lay ak bars + 1.5 £100 @ 1.45 = + £95 ( 3-0 moscow )

lay spurs not to win both halves £150 @ 1.35 = - £52.50 ( a game of 1 half as they say )

running total = £5011.50

just watched re-run of mossley race and it survived a bad blunder

anyone any stats for odds-on favs in beginners chases ?

Intersting to see someone do one of these opposing short odds instead of backing them all.

You do get bad losing runs with those sort of bets, although you can still come out on top, i'd say advisable to not have a liabilty higher than £100 on anything as a very small % of bank risked is sensible.

Oh i see you are doing that anyway sorry .

Was thinking the stakes you mentioned were your liabilties  but i see that is backer's stake and your liablity is low.

Try this link and use CUSTOM REPORT to check out stats on odds on favs etc

http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/fav/index.php

thanks for input tobermory + dfcironman ( great link,lot of work gone into what's on there )

any link to find price/volume graphs for betfair markets once event closed ?

todays lays

lay federer v nadal £100 @ 1.49

lay over 2.5 goals real madrid v zagreb £150 @ 1.38

lay over 1.5 goals trabzonspor v inter £100 @ 1.48

yesterdays results

lay federer £100 @ 1.49 v nadal = - £49 (4-0 for roger v rafa on hard courts )

lay over 2.5 goals £150 @ 1.38 real v zagreb = - £57 ( 4-0 after 20 mins,final score 6-2 )

lay over 1.5 goals £100 @ 1.48 trabzonspor v inter = - £48 ( 1-1 after 23 mins,final score 1-1 )

running total = £4857.50

bad day but as the old bloke in dads army said....... dont panic........or should that be......

.....you stupid boy !

todays lays

lay over 1.5 goals ac milan v barcelona £200 @ 1.29

yesterdays results

lay over 1.5 goals £200 @ 1.29 milan v barca = - £58 ( 1-1 after 20 mins,final score 3-2 for barca )

running total = £4799.50

another bad lay,annoyed as looked at djokovic lay v ferrer but onwards and upwards ( or downwards )

todays lays

lay total number of sets (2) federer v fish £200 @ 1.32

Yesterday's results   Lay number of sets (2) federer v fish £ 200  @  1.32 = + £190 running total=   £4989.50

Today's lays  lay az alkmaar v Utrecht £200@ 1.32

yesterdays results

lay az alkmaar £200 @ 1.32 v utrecht = - £64 ( looking good until 67 mins,final score 2-0 )

running total = £4925.50

todays lays

lay total sets two federer v ferrer £200 @ 1.36

lay chelsea v wolves £300 @ 1.23

lay west ham v derby £200 @ 1.48

yesterdays results

lay total 2 sets federer v ferrer £200 @ 1.36 = - £72 ( 2-0 roger )

lay chelsea v wolves £300 @ 1.23 = - £69 ( 3-0 chelsea )

lay west ham v derby £200 @ 1.48 = - £96 ( 3-1 west ham )

idea was only needed one correct to increase bank . Bad idea !

running total £4688.50

todays lays

lay federer v tsonga £300 @ 1.31

Yesterdays results.                                                                                                                                                          Lay federer £300 @ 1.31 v tsonga = - £93 ( 2-0 roger ).                                                                                              Running total  = £ 4595.50.  New thread title = how to lose 5k in 2 weeks !

You're doing alright actually. I'll try to run the stats later but if we were to pretend all lays were at true odds then you can work out how lucky/unlucky you've been*.


*Note that under that assumption you need to get quite lucky to beat the commission!

Ok I can't be bothered to do the full stats, but here's a table for doing 10 1.3 lays at 5% commission.

Laying at true odds You need to be luckier than 58% of the population to make a profit:


|odds|1.3|
|n|10|
|Lay value|100|
|commission|5.00%|

|Wins|probability|Cumulative|Net Profit|
|0|0.0725381503|0.0725381503|-300|
|1|0.2176144509|0.2901526011|-175|
|2|0.2937795087|0.5839321098|-50|
|3|0.2350236069|0.8189557167|75|
|4|0.1233873936|0.9423431104|200|
|5|0.0444194617|0.9867625721|325|
|6|0.0111048654|0.9978674375|450|
|7|0.0019036912|0.9997711287|575|
|8|0.0002141653|0.999985294|700|
|9|1.42776841208733E-005|0.9999995717|825|
|10|4.28330523626198E-007|1|950|

|Expectation:|-11.5384615385|

Oh bother, I forgot it was double lines to do a table.

odds	1.3
n	10
Lay value	100
commission	5.00%

Wins	probability	Cumulative	Net Profit
0	0.0725381503	0.0725381503	-300
1	0.2176144509	0.2901526011	-175
2	0.2937795087	0.5839321098	-50
3	0.2350236069	0.8189557167	75
4	0.1233873936	0.9423431104	200
5	0.0444194617	0.9867625721	325
6	0.0111048654	0.9978674375	450
7	0.0019036912	0.9997711287	575
8	0.0002141653	0.999985294	700
9	1.42776841208733E-005	0.9999995717	825
10	4.28330523626198E-007	1	950

Expectation:

-11.5384615385

Actually with such a small sample size (10), commission isn't a big factor, but it becomes a bigger factor as n increases.

Note that the variance is high, in fact unless I've ballsed up my maths then the variance is around £221, which is twice a stake.

My analysis shows that laying long odds is more profitable than laying short odds in terms of ROI, but I might have made a calculation error.

If you have a look at your lays. Most traded higher. I have been watching this at the tennis and there was not one game that the fav didn't move. Andy Murray 1.19 lost.  I'm going to start from January with 5000 and see where I am in a year. I always green out and if the s hit hits the fan red out

Best of luck

dbrfcno1: So what if most traded higher?

Assuming a perfect market, a 1.1 shot wins 10 times in 11.

But how often does it go to 1.2?

Well 1 time in 11 it loses, so must cross 1.2, however by your rules you always green when it gets to 1.2, so if you were to 'green' out a lay at that point, you've only won less than evens.

So you actually require it to get to 1.2 more often than not to make a profit.

One of the biggest myths on this site is that a lay tip that trades longer but eventually comes in or a back tip that trades shorter before losing was a good tip. Unless the trades are specified at the time of tipping it's a bad tip. And if the trades are specified at the time of tipping then the effects that has on the effective odds should be made clear.

Tipping a 1.1 shot to trade at 1.2 is an evens money return (less comission).

Wait, my maths is wrong it's worse than evens! If you lay £10 at 1.1 for a liability of £1, then when you green at 1.2 you need to back £10 to get a profit of £1 on the other side, but that's £1 on that side, with nothing on the other, not £1 on both sides.

The even green is laying £10.91 for a 91p profit each side, which is before we even take commission into account.

So you're risking £1 to get yourself into a position to win 91p less comission (86p? 87p?).

So you've given yourself horrible effective odds.

If your 1.1 lay ever comes in, you've not got 10/1 you've got less than evens because you greened out! If it doesn't come in but reaches 1.2 you've got less than evens profit. If it doesn't ever get to 1.2 you've lost a stake.

One day I'll collect all my thoughts and make a book called 'the betfair myths', it's quite incredible how people can convince themselves they're doing a better job than they are.

Human nature though innit, nothing personal.

maybe you should get out more.
The start was assuming a perfect market when do they happen.

I try to watch most things I bet on and see how it goes. 

May I ask how you bet

So there is life out there after all,many thanks for input,much appreciated

Initially I started 'trading' everything but quickly realised that I just tended to green my winnings and let my reds ride, which is another massive mug trap, so I stopped doing it, and these days I tend to bet either pre-off or in-running but letting bets ride once I make them, generally.

Sometimes if odds look wrong then of course if I see value in running I'll make a bet in a market I'm already involved with.

Generally speaking though, I make more money letting bets run than in markets where I've tried to trade and green etc.

But I like to trade long term/antepost markets such as relegation/promotion market though.

Part of the problem is I'm a £2 punter so if I lay a team then I can't realistically green, I have to then bet min £2 on them which leaves all my green on the side I think unlikely to happen (the 'back' side) and only even £0 on the 'lay' side.

This has happened to me this year in the promotion market, where by laying Man u for £2 at 3.85 if they drift to 5 then to green I'll have to back them £2 leaving me no better off when they don't win, so I'll probably just have to let that bet ride.

I tend to try to back/lay £3 a time these days for that reason, but sometimes the liabilities are bigger than I'm comfortable with.

How do you bet?

p.s. I usually do get out more (hence my low post rate) but I'm unscheduled off work today on a cold and wet wintry day, so figured I'd catch up with the betfair forum. I usually stick to cricket and specials betting, with a dabble in soccer.

I used to use betfair for odd bet mostly football then in may started tennis. I staked quite large and won about 6 grand in two months
. Then for some reason changed what I was doing and lost 2 grand off it so stopped for a bit. I started watching my balance and redding out to early and most times if I had left it my original bet would be in.
Now I dodge along with football until January when tennis is back
I'm aiming to make 150 a week and have done ok recently.
I'm trying to reduce stakes and maybe place more bets. Have read a few posts were guys work there bets in percentages to suit  there banks

Perhaps initially you were lucky and then you were less lucky. What we do is gambling it's random. There is a skill to maintaining an edge in the long run, but in the short term (and short can mean a run of any length, in mathematics long term means n as n approaches infinity!) you can't assign results to judgment either way.

You should be grateful that you had a 6k winning streak before a 2k losing one. For many it comes the other way around, and they never get the opportunity to win the 6k after doing their nut first.

I agree though that excessive meddling (excessive redding or greening) is a problem, but usually because it's a symptom of the bet size being outside of one's natural comfort zone.

This is why I bet with liabilities under a tenner (nearly always usually under a fiver or even much less), because it means I can set a deposit limit so low that even if I were to deposit every single month from here to eternity I can say I'd be annoyed but not distraught or home-broken.

I always ask myself "What if I lose the next 10 bets?"*

*Whatever stakes you bet at, unless you always back sub 1.5 then this isn't hugely unlikely!)

Betting a % of bank is a bad and ruinous strategy. The obvious example is the (bet 100% of bank, all in strategy), but here's another startling one:

Imagine the following scenario, I offer you 2.05 (with no commission) on heads on a coin flip.

You always bet with 10% of your bank.

If heads comes up 50 times out of 100 you'll have lost 25% of your money, despite getting better than evens on a shot that came in evens.

If you'd staked level stakes you'd have made a quarter of a stake.

There Is a skill required definitely.

I believe I know enough about football and have watched a lot of tennis so I'm getting better at that to pick away at it. I think it has a lot to do with how much time you ave to spare.

I had a look at my p/l for a month and I had placed around 40 bets on various sports over the month. So another way I thought was say I do my 40 bets and aim for 15 quid profit a bet. With a decent bank should be achievable but that's clearly not accounting for losses and stuff but just trying to get the way i think across.

As your liability is under a tenner do you have targets or something to aim for.
You seem very good with numbers to just play about

Unless you have an edge - YOU WILL NOT WIN

Your betting is too random - and your price range of under 1.5 will be very hard indeed to find value on a regular basis

good luck

What would one say an edge is

Depending on who you ask:

i)   A myth, betfair is too efficient for value to exist after commission. The people making money on betfair are the market makers who get matched both sides. PC was introduced to make money because they make large amounts of money at little risk. (And therefore very low effective commission).

ii)  An excuse to keep gambling.

iii) What keeps you in profit.


Strictly speaking your edge is the difference between your effective odds (odds after commission) and the 'true' odds of the event. You'll never know the true odds. Just because Stoke beat Blackburn 3-1 doesn't mean the odds of them winning were too high, or that the odds of 3-1 were too long.

Only over a very very long time can you judge whether you have an edge without commission (Step 1), and whether you have an edge after commission (step 2).


Here's a tip, although given every pretends to make a profit it won't work, take your 3month P&L. Now look at the total commission paid over the last 3 months. If you've made a loss in the last 3 months, would you have made a profit if not for the commission you've paid? If that's the case you're probably making OK bets which are OK value but not exceptional enough to beat the commission. If you've made a profit but it's smaller than the commission then what percentage of your profit is it? Betfair estimates it's on average 25% (20% of gross profit, leaves 80% net profit and 20% commission which means the commission is 25% of net profit, before anyone jumps on the 25% figure).

You need to be beating that 20% consistently. This is difficult.