Lay till the cow comes home

cows

am sure many have tried and failed but will have a go.

taylor traded @ 1.3 early in match,psg 1.69 now,maybe trading out the way forward but will stick with lays

note to self,sign in using longer user name

no didnt trade out,will let all lays run

long way to go though,the power absolutely brilliant tonight,great to watch

laying 1.5 or shorter ?????

you will lose - stop this at once you absolute moron

Since you changed it to cows you also had to change it to come.One cow cannot comes

interesting thread, will follow

should be 2.05 kempton

Intersting to see someone do one of these opposing short odds instead of backing them all.

You do get bad losing runs with those sort of bets, although you can still come out on top, i'd say advisable to not have a liabilty higher than £100 on anything as a very small % of bank risked is sensible.

Try this link and use CUSTOM REPORT to check out stats on odds on favs etc

http://adrianmassey.no-ip.org/web1/fav/index.php

yesterdays results

todays lays

lay over 1.5 goals ac milan v barcelona £200 @ 1.29

Yesterday's results   Lay number of sets (2) federer v fish £ 200  @  1.32 = + £190 running total=   £4989.50

yesterdays results

lay az alkmaar £200 @ 1.32 v utrecht = - £64 ( looking good until 67 mins,final score 2-0 )

running total = £4925.50

todays lays

lay total sets two federer v ferrer £200 @ 1.36

lay chelsea v wolves £300 @ 1.23

lay west ham v derby £200 @ 1.48

Yesterdays results.                                                                                                                                                          Lay federer £300 @ 1.31 v tsonga = - £93 ( 2-0 roger ).                                                                                              Running total  = £ 4595.50.  New thread title = how to lose 5k in 2 weeks !

Ok I can't be bothered to do the full stats, but here's a table for doing 10 1.3 lays at 5% commission.

Laying at true odds You need to be luckier than 58% of the population to make a profit:


|odds|1.3|
|n|10|
|Lay value|100|
|commission|5.00%|

|Wins|probability|Cumulative|Net Profit|
|0|0.0725381503|0.0725381503|-300|
|1|0.2176144509|0.2901526011|-175|
|2|0.2937795087|0.5839321098|-50|
|3|0.2350236069|0.8189557167|75|
|4|0.1233873936|0.9423431104|200|
|5|0.0444194617|0.9867625721|325|
|6|0.0111048654|0.9978674375|450|
|7|0.0019036912|0.9997711287|575|
|8|0.0002141653|0.999985294|700|
|9|1.42776841208733E-005|0.9999995717|825|
|10|4.28330523626198E-007|1|950|

|Expectation:|-11.5384615385|

Actually with such a small sample size (10), commission isn't a big factor, but it becomes a bigger factor as n increases.

Note that the variance is high, in fact unless I've ballsed up my maths then the variance is around £221, which is twice a stake.

My analysis shows that laying long odds is more profitable than laying short odds in terms of ROI, but I might have made a calculation error.

dbrfcno1: So what if most traded higher?

Assuming a perfect market, a 1.1 shot wins 10 times in 11.

But how often does it go to 1.2?

Well 1 time in 11 it loses, so must cross 1.2, however by your rules you always green when it gets to 1.2, so if you were to 'green' out a lay at that point, you've only won less than evens.

So you actually require it to get to 1.2 more often than not to make a profit.

One of the biggest myths on this site is that a lay tip that trades longer but eventually comes in or a back tip that trades shorter before losing was a good tip. Unless the trades are specified at the time of tipping it's a bad tip. And if the trades are specified at the time of tipping then the effects that has on the effective odds should be made clear.

Tipping a 1.1 shot to trade at 1.2 is an evens money return (less comission).

Wait, my maths is wrong it's worse than evens! If you lay £10 at 1.1 for a liability of £1, then when you green at 1.2 you need to back £10 to get a profit of £1 on the other side, but that's £1 on that side, with nothing on the other, not £1 on both sides.

The even green is laying £10.91 for a 91p profit each side, which is before we even take commission into account.

So you're risking £1 to get yourself into a position to win 91p less comission (86p? 87p?).

So you've given yourself horrible effective odds.

If your 1.1 lay ever comes in, you've not got 10/1 you've got less than evens because you greened out! If it doesn't come in but reaches 1.2 you've got less than evens profit. If it doesn't ever get to 1.2 you've lost a stake.

One day I'll collect all my thoughts and make a book called 'the betfair myths', it's quite incredible how people can convince themselves they're doing a better job than they are.

Human nature though innit, nothing personal.

So there is life out there after all,many thanks for input,much appreciated

I used to use betfair for odd bet mostly football then in may started tennis. I staked quite large and won about 6 grand in two months
. Then for some reason changed what I was doing and lost 2 grand off it so stopped for a bit. I started watching my balance and redding out to early and most times if I had left it my original bet would be in.
Now I dodge along with football until January when tennis is back
I'm aiming to make 150 a week and have done ok recently.
I'm trying to reduce stakes and maybe place more bets. Have read a few posts were guys work there bets in percentages to suit  there banks