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My £100K challenge (again)
My £100K challenge (again)
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In all seriousness started off doing my usual of running through the horse and greyhound cards in the morning ... and then started betting on some of the Aussie stuff (and lost) . Then eventually my first system greyhound race came up so put on a bit more than I should have only for it to go on and win ...
If I had played strictly my greyhound selections (I did switch to win lays over place lays to test that out) I would have been around £70 down for the day (most of the UK horse selections were at Ayr which was abondoned) ... |
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Perhaps I shouldn't listen to the commentary ... as the first system race three dogs took each other out early in the race allowing my selection to romp home
 ...Just a quick look at the stats on my greyhound system ... (trying to lay only between 3.5 to 10's for win and 2 to 5's for the place). Most win lays were 4.5 to 7's and place lays are around the 3 to 3.5 mark. Simply over a 10 day period there were 173 system selections of which 20 won, 23 came second and 130 were unplaced ... Now just to some how get this into a winning system either filtering further or just simply keep betting ... early days though .. |
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If you work out your average odds on the win lay and place lays, then measure that against how many won in each market you will get a good idea of how well you are beating the implied probability.
Obviously the larger the sample size the better, but hopefully it will slowly show you that if you persevere with your system, after the ups and downs you will see a certain margin of profit over the year. I understand you and everyone know this, I'm just stimulating some discussion and ideas, as I think only the more detailed figures are any use. |
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I am going to go back through the individual selections and see if I can see any patterns. I have identified one filter - which I noticed quite early on but chose not to do anything about it just yet.
Two of the selections (which won today ie: I lost) they both could have been filtered out if I had applied it ... however the problem is is that it requires me to check two databases which I was hoping not to do .... |
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I would say you probably haven't found such a key filter so early on. More of a coincidence that it would have prevented those loses.
I'd concentrate on not losing your head on the chase bets/overstaking - it seems your choices are ok, it's the overstaking when a bad run comes that undoes you, Undern. Hope the stats reveal some good selections though! |
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Yeah Undern, Van-Wedged makes a good point. Do be careful with those filters, and make sure you've tested the systems extensively on new data and with the filters firmly in place. The testing that you do on any system only really starts in earnest once you've locked in place every single rule and parameter. Until you've reached that point, much of the testing amounts to little else other than than adjusting the parameters so that they work with the past data - and there's a good chance those filters will melt away as soon as you start using them with new data.
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Undern,
Its good that you read through your old thread and may have identified mistakes, poor bets, or chase bets, and learnt from it. Reading through your old thread could help you identify when you are about to make those poor choices this time round, which you will make, everyone makes poor decisions, but if you can learn to reduce them then you should see your bank increase steadily. I keep an accurate history of my bets, the reasons why i made them, the doubts i had about them, the dangers, etc, then i look at how the bet unfolded, whether it went to plan, whether i was happy with the bet i placed (win or lose), i find it helps in my decision making with future bets. All the best, Coolhand  |
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Overall nice day with a good mix of successful 'system' lays and lays done throughout the day. Played quite sensibly with controlled stakes which is good ... was actually a bit more ahead but lost £50+ on the last horse race.
Challenge Summary: 03/10/11 £2500 04/10/11 £2655 05/10/11 £2608 06/10/11 £2196 07/10/11 £2458 Also just for clarity ... 6/10 figure was wrong on yesterday's summary... I typed in the wrong figure from my spread sheet which was the £2196 + daily target of 1% of the highest bank (£27) = £2223 |
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Darts: £30.98 | Greyhound Racing: £66.01 | Horse Racing: £199.77 | Tote: | Total P&L: £296.76
Greyhound Racing: £30.98 | Horse Racing: -£34.70 | Tote: | Total P&L: -£3.72 (Aussie Wallet) ... might find that the darts figure was counted in yesterday report totals ... the p&l report tool with the option 'Just for Today' not quite as accurate as it should be as it over-laps a little bit. |
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Greyhound Racing Showing 1 - 4 of 4 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Greyhound Racing / WPrk (AUS) 7th Oct : R5 520m Gr4/5 07-Oct-11 10:38 07-Oct-11 10:41 4.84 Greyhound Racing / WPrk (AUS) 7th Oct : R3 720m Gr5 07-Oct-11 09:56 07-Oct-11 10:00 4.84 Greyhound Racing / WPrk (AUS) 7th Oct : R2 520m Gr5 07-Oct-11 09:38 07-Oct-11 09:40 9.68 Greyhound Racing / Geel (AUS) 7th Oct : R2 460m Mdn 07-Oct-11 09:26 07-Oct-11 09:28 11.62 Horse Racing Showing 1 - 17 of 17 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Horse Racing / GlPk (AUS) 7th Oct : R2 2100m Pace M 07-Oct-11 10:50 07-Oct-11 11:00 12.10 Horse Racing / MVal (AUS) 7th Oct : R5 2040m Hcap 07-Oct-11 10:45 07-Oct-11 10:53 -8.40 Horse Racing / GlPk (AUS) 7th Oct : R1 1700m Pace M 07-Oct-11 10:20 07-Oct-11 10:32 8.62 Horse Racing / MVal (AUS) 7th Oct : R4 955m Hcap 07-Oct-11 10:15 07-Oct-11 10:21 13.55 Horse Racing / MVal (AUS) 7th Oct : R3 3000m Hcap 07-Oct-11 09:45 07-Oct-11 09:54 24.20 Horse Racing / Newc (AUS) 7th Oct : R3 2030m Pace M 07-Oct-11 09:30 07-Oct-11 09:33 9.68 Horse Racing / GCst (AUS) 7th Oct : R2 1609m Pace M 07-Oct-11 09:20 07-Oct-11 09:24 -91.88 Horse Racing / MVal (AUS) 7th Oct : R2 1600m 3yo 07-Oct-11 09:15 07-Oct-11 09:18 26.62 Horse Racing / GlbD (AUS) 7th Oct : R1 1800m Pace M 07-Oct-11 09:04 07-Oct-11 09:07 -86.00 Horse Racing / Bath (AUS) 7th Oct : R6 2130m Pace M 07-Oct-11 07:53 07-Oct-11 07:57 2.42 Horse Racing / Ipsw (AUS) 7th Oct : R7 1350m CL2 07-Oct-11 07:50 07-Oct-11 07:54 5.42 Horse Racing / PMaq (AUS) 7th Oct : R8 1500m Hcap 07-Oct-11 07:40 07-Oct-11 07:44 4.84 Horse Racing / Nowr (AUS) 7th Oct : R7 1100m Hcap 07-Oct-11 07:30 07-Oct-11 07:34 21.16 Horse Racing / Sale (AUS) 7th Oct : R8 1113m Hcap 07-Oct-11 07:20 07-Oct-11 07:25 9.68 Horse Racing / Ipsw (AUS) 7th Oct : R6 1666m CL1 07-Oct-11 07:10 07-Oct-11 07:16 3.65 Horse Racing / Haml (AUS) 7th Oct : R7 1660m Pace M 07-Oct-11 06:53 07-Oct-11 07:14 2.86 Horse Racing / PMaq (AUS) 7th Oct : R7 2000m Cup 07-Oct-11 07:00 07-Oct-11 07:05 6.78 |
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Darts Showing 1 - 1 of 1 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Darts / Burnett v Ovens : Match Odds 06-Oct-11 22:15 06-Oct-11 23:07 30.98 |
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Greyhound Racing Showing 1 - 20 of 22 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Greyhound Racing / Nott 7th Oct : OR 500m 07-Oct-11 21:22 07-Oct-11 21:25 4.84 Greyhound Racing / Sheff 7th Oct : A2 500m 07-Oct-11 20:58 07-Oct-11 21:01 14.52 Greyhound Racing / Sheff 7th Oct : A3 500m 07-Oct-11 20:13 07-Oct-11 20:16 11.81 Greyhound Racing / Monm 7th Oct : A3 480m 07-Oct-11 17:47 07-Oct-11 17:49 14.52 Greyhound Racing / Monm 7th Oct : S5 630m 07-Oct-11 17:33 07-Oct-11 17:37 14.52 Greyhound Racing / Monm 7th Oct : A5 480m 07-Oct-11 16:37 07-Oct-11 16:39 14.52 Greyhound Racing / Swin 7th Oct : A5 480m 07-Oct-11 16:27 07-Oct-11 16:30 10.75 Greyhound Racing / Hove 7th Oct : A4 515m 07-Oct-11 13:58 07-Oct-11 14:01 -58.00 Greyhound Racing / Oxfd 7th Oct : A2 450m 07-Oct-11 13:33 07-Oct-11 13:40 19.85 Greyhound Racing / Hove 7th Oct : A3 515m 07-Oct-11 13:27 07-Oct-11 13:30 11.62 Greyhound Racing / Oxfd 7th Oct : A5 450m 07-Oct-11 13:19 07-Oct-11 13:21 9.68 Greyhound Racing / Hove 7th Oct : A2 515m 07-Oct-11 13:12 07-Oct-11 13:19 -73.70 Greyhound Racing / Oxfd 7th Oct : A6 450m 07-Oct-11 12:32 07-Oct-11 12:36 16.94 Greyhound Racing / Hove 7th Oct : A3 515m 07-Oct-11 12:12 07-Oct-11 12:14 14.52 Greyhound Racing / Hove 7th Oct : A6 515m 07-Oct-11 11:57 07-Oct-11 12:00 -46.50 Greyhound Racing / Oxfd 7th Oct : A4 450m 07-Oct-11 11:48 07-Oct-11 11:50 8.80 Greyhound Racing / Hove 7th Oct : A8 515m 07-Oct-11 11:42 07-Oct-11 11:44 9.68 Greyhound Racing / Oxfd 7th Oct : A5 450m 07-Oct-11 11:34 07-Oct-11 11:35 16.94 Greyhound Racing / Hove 7th Oct : A5 515m 07-Oct-11 11:28 07-Oct-11 11:31 14.52 Greyhound Racing / Oxfd 7th Oct : A7 450m 07-Oct-11 11:19 07-Oct-11 11:22 16.46 Greyhound Racing Showing 21 - 22 of 22 markets Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Greyhound Racing / Hove 7th Oct : A9 515m 07-Oct-11 11:11 07-Oct-11 11:15 16.94 Greyhound Racing / Oxfd 7th Oct : A8 450m 07-Oct-11 11:03 07-Oct-11 11:09 2.78 |
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Horse Racing Showing 1 - 18 of 18 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Horse Racing / Dund 7th Oct : 1m4f Mdn 07-Oct-11 21:25 07-Oct-11 21:32 -51.61 Horse Racing / Wolv 7th Oct : 1m1f Hcap 07-Oct-11 21:15 07-Oct-11 21:18 14.52 Horse Racing / Dund 7th Oct : 1m4f Hcap 07-Oct-11 21:00 07-Oct-11 21:10 24.20 Horse Racing / Wolv 7th Oct : 1m6f Hcap 07-Oct-11 19:45 07-Oct-11 19:50 -9.58 Horse Racing / Grey (RSA) 7th Oct : R7 1900m Hcap 07-Oct-11 19:25 07-Oct-11 19:44 11.00 Horse Racing / Dund 7th Oct : 7f Listed 07-Oct-11 19:30 07-Oct-11 19:33 17.86 Horse Racing / Wolv 7th Oct : To Be Placed 07-Oct-11 19:15 07-Oct-11 19:19 24.20 Horse Racing / Wolv 7th Oct : 7f Hcap 07-Oct-11 18:40 07-Oct-11 18:43 11.81 Horse Racing / Newt 7th Oct : 2m3f Sell Hrd 07-Oct-11 16:05 07-Oct-11 16:10 9.68 Horse Racing / York 7th Oct : 5f Mdn Stks 07-Oct-11 15:40 07-Oct-11 15:47 12.74 Horse Racing / Newt 7th Oct : 2m Hcap Chs 07-Oct-11 14:55 07-Oct-11 15:01 46.46 Horse Racing / Carl 7th Oct : 3m Hcap Chs 07-Oct-11 14:45 07-Oct-11 14:51 11.52 Horse Racing / York 7th Oct : 1m2f Cond Stks 07-Oct-11 14:30 07-Oct-11 14:34 -16.16 Horse Racing / Newt 7th Oct : 2m1f Juv Hrd 07-Oct-11 14:20 07-Oct-11 14:25 67.76 Horse Racing / York 7th Oct : To Be Placed 07-Oct-11 14:00 07-Oct-11 14:19 -56.91 Horse Racing / Carl 7th Oct : 2m1f Nov Hrd 07-Oct-11 14:10 07-Oct-11 14:14 48.40 Horse Racing / Newt 7th Oct : 2m3f Nov Hrd 07-Oct-11 13:50 07-Oct-11 13:55 19.36 Horse Racing / Arl (RSA) 7th Oct : R5 1600m Hcap 07-Oct-11 13:40 07-Oct-11 13:51 14.52 |
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thanks for your posts LB and Van-Wedged. This particular filter/factor logically should have some affect so will look at it quite carefully.
Coolhand - always a bit frustrating to go backwards so early on but left the betting bot on auto yesterday arvo and it ended in profit so that was nice. Must admit I am bit too 'hands on' with my betting as I like to be there during the race/game etc to react when required ... Speaking of I had a nice win on the Welsh in the Rugby  |
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Rugby Union Showing 1 - 1 of 1 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Rugby Union / Ireland v Wales : Match Odds 08-Oct-11 06:00 08-Oct-11 07:41 130.68 So did a nice bet/trade on the Welsh earlier on ... and this back bet on the French ... France 3 £56.54 £113.08 Ref: 1481831947 Bet matched:08:02 08-Oct-11 Mmmm to trade or not ... Also betting bot setup with greyhound/horse lays for the day ... all I need now is a nice clean sweep  |
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Draw 30 £5.00 £145.00
Ref: 1482530853 Bet matched:10:18 08-Oct-11 Well I did do a small green up on the draw at the end ... but nice two wins on the Rugby. ... wonder if I should back the Aussies tomorrow ... |
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good
to see uve joined the bot club undern . your woman will be pleased . mine certainly is |
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6/10 figure was wrong on yesterday's summary...
what do you mean the 6/10 figure? |
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just got back in ... greedkillsmybankagain ... noticed the bot is doing well today ... just got to stop myself from betting outside of the bot selections
Paulme - I have already explained it. the 6/10 refers to 6th October or 6/10/11 or 6/10/2011  |
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ah ok
Undern - where did you discover these "systems"? do you pay for them? how did you learn to make a bot? |
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i will answer you Paulme re: systems/bots if you put up on your thread the p&l (from August or whatever) for your other BF account. You said you had two accounts but have only post up the p&l for one of them ....
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righto cobber
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Undern - where did you discover these "systems"? do you pay for them? how did you learn to make a bot?
Paulme the answers for your questions are as follows: I made them up using research/thought/time. No. I didn't make a bot. |
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thanks,
how did the bot come into play then? |
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I wanted to spend less time on here so decided to start using a bot.
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no i mean how did the bot come to exist if you didnt make it?
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2011-10-08
16:37 16640533816 2011-10-08 16:33 GB Hex 8th Oct / 16:30 2m4f Mdn Hrd / Fill The Power Back 2.94 50.00 Won 97.10 nice rare win bet .... |
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It is a commercially available product just like the 100's of other Bots out there ...
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ah so you paid for "it"?
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Did you even read into the link Shane gave you?
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Nice day with two good picks in the Rugby. Wasted some money in some 'non system' greyhound selections very early on but did nicely in the horse racing. System selections on there own produced about £135 profit. Good to get the bank moving forward into positive territory.
Challenge Summary: 03/10/11 £2500 04/10/11 £2655 05/10/11 £2608 06/10/11 £2196 07/10/11 £2458 08/10/11 £2879 |
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Greyhound Racing: -£16.64 | Horse Racing: £234.35 | Tote: | Total P&L: £217.71
Horse Racing: -£31.71 | Rugby Union: £235.30 | Tote: | Total P&L: £203.59 (Aussie markets) |
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Horse Racing Showing 1 - 16 of 16 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Horse Racing / GCst (AUS) 8th Oct : R8 1400m CL3 08-Oct-11 08:15 08-Oct-11 08:16 -11.00 Horse Racing / Belm (AUS) 8th Oct : R5 1200m 3yo 08-Oct-11 08:05 08-Oct-11 08:09 11.71 Horse Racing / EFrm (AUS) 8th Oct : R7 1500m Qlty 08-Oct-11 07:10 08-Oct-11 07:16 14.04 Horse Racing / Rose (AUS) 8th Oct : R7 1500m Hcap 08-Oct-11 07:00 08-Oct-11 07:02 14.52 Horse Racing / Belm (AUS) 8th Oct : R3 1600m Hcap 08-Oct-11 06:45 08-Oct-11 06:50 12.10 Horse Racing / KemG (AUS) 8th Oct : R7 1400m CL1 08-Oct-11 06:35 08-Oct-11 06:42 -48.00 Horse Racing / Caul (AUS) 8th Oct : R9 1400m Hcap 08-Oct-11 06:40 08-Oct-11 06:42 7.26 Horse Racing / Tood (AUS) 8th Oct : R2 1850m Mdn 08-Oct-11 06:27 08-Oct-11 06:33 24.20 Horse Racing / EFrm (AUS) 8th Oct : R6 1800m Hcap 08-Oct-11 06:30 08-Oct-11 06:33 -19.20 Horse Racing / Pakn (AUS) 8th Oct : R6 1309m Hcap 08-Oct-11 06:25 08-Oct-11 06:27 -2.40 Horse Racing / Rose (AUS) 8th Oct : R6 1400m Listed 08-Oct-11 06:20 08-Oct-11 06:22 11.62 Horse Racing / GCst (AUS) 8th Oct : R5 1200m 3yo 08-Oct-11 06:15 08-Oct-11 06:17 1.94 Horse Racing / Belm (AUS) 8th Oct : R2 1600m Hcap 08-Oct-11 06:05 08-Oct-11 06:15 14.52 Horse Racing / Morp (AUS) 8th Oct : R6 1200m 3yo 08-Oct-11 06:10 08-Oct-11 06:14 4.84 Horse Racing / Caul (AUS) 8th Oct : R8 1200m Listed 08-Oct-11 06:00 08-Oct-11 06:03 24.20 Horse Racing / Tood (AUS) 8th Oct : R1 1100m Mdn 08-Oct-11 05:52 08-Oct-11 06:01 -92.06 |
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Rugby Union Showing 1 - 2 of 2 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Rugby Union / England v France : Match Odds 08-Oct-11 08:30 08-Oct-11 10:27 104.62 Rugby Union / Ireland v Wales : Match Odds 08-Oct-11 06:00 08-Oct-11 07:41 130.68 |
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Greyhound Racing Showing 1 - 18 of 18 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Greyhound Racing / Sittb 8th Oct : A2 480m 08-Oct-11 20:51 08-Oct-11 20:54 14.52 Greyhound Racing / Wdon 8th Oct : A4 480m 08-Oct-11 20:15 08-Oct-11 20:19 14.52 Greyhound Racing / Romfd 8th Oct : A7 400m 08-Oct-11 19:45 08-Oct-11 19:50 14.52 Greyhound Racing / Hove 8th Oct : A11 515m 08-Oct-11 19:30 08-Oct-11 19:43 -38.49 Greyhound Racing / Wdon 8th Oct : A5 480m 08-Oct-11 19:30 08-Oct-11 19:32 -7.50 Greyhound Racing / Sittb 8th Oct : S3 642m 08-Oct-11 19:06 08-Oct-11 19:08 14.52 Greyhound Racing / Newc 8th Oct : A1 480m 08-Oct-11 14:58 08-Oct-11 15:01 11.26 Greyhound Racing / Romfd 8th Oct : A5 400m 08-Oct-11 13:19 08-Oct-11 13:21 24.20 Greyhound Racing / Romfd 8th Oct : A3 400m 08-Oct-11 12:47 08-Oct-11 12:50 13.26 Greyhound Racing / Crayfd 8th Oct : H2 380m 08-Oct-11 12:24 08-Oct-11 12:26 3.39 Greyhound Racing / Romfd 8th Oct : A4 400m 08-Oct-11 12:17 08-Oct-11 12:19 5.87 Greyhound Racing / Crayfd 8th Oct : A5 380m 08-Oct-11 11:37 08-Oct-11 11:38 14.52 Greyhound Racing / Crayfd 8th Oct : A7 380m 08-Oct-11 11:23 08-Oct-11 11:24 11.62 Greyhound Racing / Romfd 8th Oct : A2 400m 08-Oct-11 11:16 08-Oct-11 11:18 24.20 Greyhound Racing / Crayfd 8th Oct : S7 540m 08-Oct-11 11:07 08-Oct-11 11:10 5.81 Greyhound Racing / Romfd 8th Oct : A8 400m 08-Oct-11 11:00 08-Oct-11 11:02 9.68 Greyhound Racing / Crayfd 8th Oct : A7 380m 08-Oct-11 10:53 08-Oct-11 10:55 -83.64 Greyhound Racing / Romfd 8th Oct : A2 400m 08-Oct-11 10:46 08-Oct-11 10:47 -68.90 See the first two were hits ! |
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Horse Racing Showing 1 - 14 of 14 markets
Market Start time Settled date Profit/loss (£) Horse Racing / Wolv 8th Oct : 6f Hcap 08-Oct-11 18:30 08-Oct-11 18:41 9.68 Horse Racing / Wolv 8th Oct : 6f Nursery 08-Oct-11 18:00 08-Oct-11 18:02 14.52 Horse Racing / York 8th Oct : 1m2f Hcap 08-Oct-11 17:15 08-Oct-11 17:19 10.19 Horse Racing / Hex 8th Oct : 2m4f Mdn Hrd 08-Oct-11 16:30 08-Oct-11 16:37 83.10 Horse Racing / Newm 8th Oct : 7f Grp2 08-Oct-11 16:25 08-Oct-11 16:31 -22.10 Horse Racing / Fairy 8th Oct : 2m4f Hcap Hrd 08-Oct-11 16:15 08-Oct-11 16:23 12.10 Horse Racing / Chep 8th Oct : 2m3f Nov Chs 08-Oct-11 16:10 08-Oct-11 16:15 -11.81 Horse Racing / Fairy 8th Oct : 2m4f Mdn Hrd 08-Oct-11 15:40 08-Oct-11 15:46 50.34 Horse Racing / Chep 8th Oct : 2m4f Nov Hrd 08-Oct-11 15:35 08-Oct-11 15:40 10.89 Horse Racing / York 8th Oct : 6f Listed 08-Oct-11 15:25 08-Oct-11 15:27 19.36 Horse Racing / Fairy 8th Oct : 2m Hcap Hrd 08-Oct-11 15:05 08-Oct-11 15:12 14.52 Horse Racing / York 8th Oct : 1m1f Hcap 08-Oct-11 14:50 08-Oct-11 14:54 14.52 Horse Racing / Hex 8th Oct : 2m Nov Hrd 08-Oct-11 14:40 08-Oct-11 14:45 14.52 Horse Racing / Fairy 8th Oct : 2m Mdn Hrd 08-Oct-11 14:00 08-Oct-11 14:08 14.52 |
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Funny enough the two bigger wins in the horse racing were both back bets ... must admit laying is what I focus on but I can see how it can be a great feeling when you pick out some very nice winning back bets ...
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Very nice numbers Undern, great work.
Are you going to venture into occasionally backing some selections now? I focus mainly on backing horses, and have to admit i struggle to get my head around laying, although occasionally if a short priced Fav is there to be beat, ill lay it but still be looking to back something against it, i think i would find it difficult to back and lay in races with any sort of regularity, i think they call for very different approaches. Each to their own i guess, keep it up. Coolhand. |
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Cheers Coolhand. I did actually do a few back bets in my previous challenge though I doubt whether I will get fully into it.
Been caught out a few times with a lay selection to have money come in late for it ... for it then to go on and win. I guess it is a case of more horses working for you (when laying) versus only one working for you (when backing). all the best to you too. cheers. |
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Cheers Coolhand. I did actually do a few back bets in my previous challenge though I doubt whether I will get fully into it.
Been caught out a few times with a lay selection to have money come in late for it ... for it then to go on and win. I guess it is a case of more horses working for you (when laying) versus only one working for you (when backing). all the best to you too. cheers. |