Last £500 betting balance

Paulme I continually shake my head at you.

Its obvious you have no clue on how to making money, atleast you've admitted it.

Now you've had your begging bowl out hussling for scraps, and some people have even given you a 3 course meal, of which you tipped out as it didn't suit your taste at the time.

So in relation to Man U do tell me whch team in the EPL you feel will beat them.

Now betting is based on current form probabillity.

So on current form I can't see a single team beating Man U this years, they ar estreets ahead of their nearest team, They might be unlucky and get held to a draw 2-3 matches but with their current starting lineup they are unbeatable in the EPL. They rolled cjelsea easily and smashed Arsenal  whos next liverpool?? man city?? man city would be the game I sat out of.

I'd rather plonk my bank on them to win draw no bet than lump your bank laying 40-1 outsiders on the horses as you were so keen to do.

Why don't you set aside 50 quid and all up it on Man U every EPL match and if you think a sode has their measure don't backem that week?????


now the soup kitchen opens shortly if that doesn't interest you???

hmm come back to me if they go all season unbeaten. also west brom were the only team to get a point at OT last season. now who would have singled them out .

MUG

I'm not sure I'd exactly label Man U as unbeatable. Form can temporarily go out of the window without a warning Gold Coast, and you never know when even a really good team is going to throw in a shocking game.

I guess 1.21 as a Draw No Bet on them beating Stoke seems a fair price. But Stoke isn't an easy place to go, and you are assuming Man U have completely recovered from their problems on the road last year. They had a lot of very bad results away from OT last season, several of them quite hard to see coming.

And I wouldn't imagine you'd get very good odds on a Draw No Bet if they were at OT.

We seem to agree Paul!    I'll get my coat...

i need a lie down

No outcome is certain otherwise it wouldn't be on here.  It;s all a question of probability.  If a football team appear unbeatable their odds will be consequently short.  The job of the successful gambler is to determine whether they are too short or too long and bet accordingly.

OK paulme

who do you think is capable of beating Man U on current form in the EPL...............

I'll answer that, they are all capable of beating Man U.

Ok by your own judgement Man U away are a bit of a liaillity, so Why not lump on them at home win draw no bet??

Is that question for me?

Capable and able to are two different things,

Was Arsenal capable yes, but they got steam rolled 8-2

What about Chelsea? capable yes, but got dusted 3-1

I reckon if your disciplined enough and get don't get an unlucky break this dudes $500 bank could go sky high, discipline and a bit of luck.

Nah was for Paulme

he is the eternal pesimist, brought on by months of backing losers and has developed the you can't win mentality, He isn't smart enough to formulate a staking system or betting approach.

GoldCoastinvestor     21 Sep 11 08:31 
Ok by your own judgement Man U away are a bit of a liaillity, so Why not lump on them at home win draw no bet??

all depends on the price, if you are lumping on them at a short price you are doomed, terrible advice.

Ok then Einstein whats your advice for this fellow to actually win?????

So far you've stumped up 9/10ths of fk all???

barnsey there are no shortcuts to success, even if your going for broke strategy  (or non strategy) came up trumps you  would be intoxicated with the result leading to more bad decisions.

Making it a pay on here is Pure Drudgery and a Marathon not a Sprint!

hmm anyone can beat anyone in the EPL on their day so this is ridiculous.

cat flap - unanswered pm's?

See paulme, that is another example of your stupidity, your so drunk on losing you can't see a winner even it were gifted to you as many have been in the past.

Your a typical mug punter actually your worse than that your here day in day out begging for a winner or someone to give you a winning system. have you followe dup on that lay the draw system that seems to have merit if you'have discipline?? Nope why?? doesn't win big amounts only wins small amounts and thats not good enough for you is it, you want it all and you don't want to do any leg work for it, fact is punting wise, you'll never win, ever.


You could not win a raffle if you held every ticket

goldcoast your advice to paulme is to lump on Man Utd at home and then you are on the path to success.  And then you have the cheek to call others stupid.

Your advice is prob some of the most naive I have seen on here. As was already put there is no shortcut to success.  Unless you are backing value or laying value you have no chance to make it pay long term.

The fact that there are so many people on here clueless about value, even those offering advice (!), is the reason it is possible to make a good profit on here.

Ok so what is value on a Man U at home win draw no bet.

Give us some figures of value??

I could back a figure that was "value" but if it loses where is the value in that???

take a footy match 1 side is $1.15 the other $8 sure the $8 side is "value" but would you back it???

of course you wouldn't because it is most likely a Man U Vs WBC and even though 8s are good value youy might as well piss your money up the pub wall??

if I determine 8 is value then yes without a doubt I will back it. I am not concerned short term whether it wins or loses.  I am only concerned with the bigger picture

Barnsey, here's another draw no bet idea for you. Huddersfield have not lost for 34 league games. It's an extraordinary run, to put it into context it's the longest ever unbeaten run outside the top flight in 120 odd years of professional football. It's my view that week after week the market underestimates the extent to which this team is able to play 90 minutes without losing. I've done very well out of that so I'm sharing it with you. Despite being 32 then 33 games unbeaten, in both of their last 2 league games they started as underdogs.  This week they're at home to Orient, who can be laid here now at 7.6. Orient have played 9 games this season and not won any of them. The reason I suggets draw no bet is because they have drawn a lot of games during their run. They are resilient, extremely well organised and they've forgotten how to lose. Any team that can leave a striker as talented and prolific as Jordan Rhodes on the bench as often as they do is clearly a superior force at this level. Of course eventually they'll lose some games, maybe even this week, but I'm of the view that following them consistently this season unless and until they suffer a horrendous run of injuries to their best players will continue to be profitable. Even if it's not as profitable as it has been so far during this run, there's a lot of margin for error, as so far there would have been 0 losing bets out of 34 if you'd got in at the very start.

GoldCoastinvestor

Ok so what is value on a Man U at home win draw no bet.

Give us some figures of value??

I could back a figure that was "value" but if it loses where is the value in that???

take a footy match 1 side is $1.15 the other $8 sure the $8 side is "value" but would you back it???

of course you wouldn't because it is most likely a Man U Vs WBC and even though 8s are good value youy might as well piss your money up the pub wall??

I would go for the value every time, any fool can see than Man U are most likely to win but to make a profit on here you have to be able to assess how likely and if they are shorter than they should be LAY!

I'm not clever enough to do so in this particular case, unfortunately.

value is an opinion and it carries no weight in relation to true odds.


I am going to start a thread and in it I'll lump $500 pretend dollars to replicate old mates desire and see where it ends up, will only bet draw no bet, I'll pick out the matches where I think regardless of the price I will back the team I think will provide a win for the bank balance.

See what I can turn $500 into just to prove a point. I bet i can accumulate a balance that would pay off old mates 4K credit card debt in a reasonably short period of time.

Gold Coast...make sure you include Huddersfield from time to time.

Incorrect, value is the difference between the true odds and those available.

Gold Coast, how would you define 'true odds' then?  Surely that's just an 'opinion' as well, isn't it? It's very difficult, if not impossible, to precisely determine the true odds of a bet. But we can obviously use statistics, judgement etc. to say what we believe the true odds to be. The more accurate we tend to be with our estimates of true odds, the more successful we will be at finding the value. And that will help us make more money in the long term.

A price for Man U is value to us if, by backing that bet many times over, we believe we would end up with more money than we started with. If we don't believe that, we shouldn't be backing it, irrespective of whether we expect that bet to be a winning one on that particular day.

OK first bet

Back Liverpool to win draw no bet

$500 @ $1.25

go ahead with your thread and lets see GC

oh dear i fancy a brighton upset personally

Liverpool should be 1.36 draw no bet in my opinion.  Good Luck though!!!

You will only know you have found value after AT LEAST  100 selections

Discipline will get you nowhere unless you have the odds in your favour - end of .

If you're taking 1.25 shots that are poor value, I bet good money you'll know your concept of value isn't working long before you've made 100 selections..

gold coast investor, to say that man united will go unbeaten this season after having played five games,
i'm sorry but thats just silly.

I seem to recall people saying the same about chelsea last year, they were 1.4 to win the prem after a few games have been played.

incidentally the best chance the original poster has to work it up to 4k, is just to put it all on a 9-1 shot, and hope it comes in. any other method will surely lose.

Have to agree with you there mp, or just go to a casino and back red a few times.

LordB, there is only one 'true odds' for any given outcome.  There are many opinions as to what it might be and those closest to the truth stand best chance of making money.

Yes Cat, that was my point. I know that, technically, there's one value for 'true odds'. However, since there's no way to be sure of pinpointing that figure, the best we can do is make as well-informed a guess as we can. The best players will be the ones who constantly get very close to the real figure, even though they generally won't know exactly how close they got.

GoldCoast was suggesting that value was just an opinion, and that the important thing was true odds (and yes, I understand the distinction between the two). I was simply asking him what he thought true odds was if it wasn't also simply an opinion?

Liverpool First corner 1.7

Having some of that.

the forum clown appears..

been to work bondy?

Bet came in did it not?

1/1 first bet home

liverpool $500 @ $1.25

balance $625

P/L +$125

I'll put all the bets in this thread and we'll go till we pay off old mates CC or until we go bust.

And true to form Paulme picks an upset in this match, must of been good value?? and as sure as day follows night he has lopped on another loser.

Bet 2

Serie A

Roma to Beat Siena   Head to head Draw no Bet

$625 @ $1.20

yep i do pick alotta losers not denying it, although i did just mug lay a horse in a maiden US and it lost so i won £18. nice...

draw no bet on the roma GC. keep going

Bundesliga 1

Stuttgart V Hamburg

Stuttgart to win

draw no bet

$625 @ $1.25

This soon went belly up GCI, i hope this was just a demonstration to paulme, and you havent just lost £625 trying to prove something you didnt have to prove.

don't say you were not warned Goldcoast - as I said some of the worst advice I have seen given on here

goldcoast has done his bollox

Whoops!!     Perhaps GC needs to get TrevH and Cat to explain value to him!

whether it was just a demonstration to me or not, it proves no-one can make a living from gambling full term... yet again!!

GoldCoastinvestor
21 Sep 11 11:50
Joined:
28 Aug 10
| Topic/replies: 1,238 | Blogger: GoldCoastinvestor's blog
value is an opinion and it carries no weight in relation to true odds.


I am going to start a thread and in it I'll lump $500 pretend dollars to replicate old mates desire and see where it ends up, will only bet draw no bet, I'll pick out the matches where I think regardless of the price I will back the team I think will provide a win for the bank balance.

See what I can turn $500 into just to prove a point. I bet i can accumulate a balance that would pay off old mates 4K credit card debt in a reasonably short period of time.


shame, thought it was real

no one wins on betfair. everytime someone trys it fails. end of...

If you believe nobody can win, why are you bothering Paul?  If I had started this game thinking nobody could win, I wouldn't have started!

Well that didn't last long did it???

What it proves to me is that if you go looking for bets, you'll lose.

I know nothing about any soccer league other than the EPL and carling Cup.


Good thing it was pretend money other wise....... well we want go there.

what it should prove to you is, unless you are obtaining value you have no hope long term. 

Paulme is just a troll who seems to get more enjoyment whinging on the forum than he does from putting in an effort and trying to better his betting

So had I backed them at $2 that would have been a better albeit still losing bet?? so how would that represent "value" it still lost crikey it could have been 20s and still lost but hey it would have been good value???????

I have probably backed more poor value winners that have won and allowed me to increase a bank balance than pass them up and still be stuck with the losing bets that were gunna happen regardless of the price.

I'll do a EPL thread atleast give myslef a chance on a comp I actually follow?

for the last time , it doesn't matter over one match, its getting value over a long term sample.  I can't make it much clearer.  One bet is not going to determine whether you are getting value or not.

if you're doing so well larrson maybe you should post a few bets and prove yourself cos up to now your credibility is 0 chap

Paulme the parasite, I don't need any credibility from a forum , least of all from a troll like you.  I am quite happy with my profit/loss and I have never felt the need to have my ego massaged on an internet forum.  I am quite happy to engage in debate and I am only offering my advice to Goldcoastinvestor that unless your a obtaining value over a large sample you have no chance to win long term.

My advice to you on the other hand is to stop whining and begging on an internet forum like a pathetic little weasel and get your lazy arse in gear, work hard and see if you can make a few bob.  But as has already been proven with your 4,000 posts in the last ten months, you would rather be a troll.

im backing city.

they wont win...

It never ceases to amaze me that people who clearly cannot win on here can be so dismissive of an intelligent and well informed piece of advice offered up by someone who clearly can.

don't be harsh on Paul - I've tried it and it doesn't work.   Lacking the empathic facility to see yourself as others see you, he thinks that people repeatedly telling him he's a lonely and loathsome internet troll are just being 'snippy'.  being 'people'. doing what people do.
  He can't allow that people are seriously trying to help him - that would bring everything crashing down. No, we're all horrible snippy inadequates ourselves, all having a go at 'I just wanna be friends Paul'.

get your lazy arse in gear, work hard and see if you can make a few bob.

is that your idea of a well informed useful piece of advice cat flap?

if so cat flap my advice to you is to spend your saturday afternoon drinking red wine and consuming pain killers. now there's a good chap

you have told in more polite terms hundreds of times but not only me but by others but you just won't listen

zzz place a bet larrson and stop bugging me FFS

the truth hurts

it does. dont feel bad that your betting credentials amount to nothing.

(x) larsson seething

If that makes you feel happy yep go ahead and run with that thought.  It might help with your betting... oh wait it won't!!!

any bets for the 3 o clock kick offs?

Gold Coast, do you really not understand the concept of value?  Do you really think that a losing bet is automatically poor value because it lost?

Answer me this. Say somebody offers to let me lay Stoke against Man U at 1.25. (Note I'm not laying Man U to win at that price, but Stoke.) Clearly that person would be a bit unhinged or had some insider info.   Now let's say that I take them up on this bet.  And let's say that Man U pretty much dominate but don't manage to translate that into goals, missing a few sitters, not scoring from a penalty, and then hitting the bar twice. Stoke go 90 minutes without creating a chance. In the last minute, Stoke get a set-piece off a disputed foul and score from the free kick after an incredibly lucky deflection. The match ends 1-0 to Stoke.

Now, let's assume the person offering to let me lay Stoke wasn't dodgy, but just idiotic. Are you really trying to tell me that I got poor value on that bet? Yes, it lost, but you could play that same fixture countless other times and Stoke wouldn't win. In the long term, if I lay Stoke to win at 1.25 against Man U, I'm going to make money. And lots of it.

I accept that's an extreme example, but the same principle applies to all bets in reduced circumstances. If you take on a bet at poor value, you'll lose in the long term, regardless of whether your bet defies its true odds today.

Guys, you're wasting your time explaining the simple concept of value. I learnt in the Schalke thread that no matter what you say, the answer will always come back "if it doesn't win it's not value" or along those lines. Even many punters who claim to understand value say this.

So best to just leave them to it.

Thanks for the tips and advice......

anyway, stuck £500 on Liverpool to win, Man City to win, Spurs to win or draw.

£693.18 profit.

Balance now £1193.18 :)

was that an acca?

Jamie Redknapps hot tip of Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea to win treble was 11/10 on skybet.

Chelsea as a single were 1/6, and i didnt really fancy them, so I instead included Spurs win or draw at 1/4.

Liverpool were lucky to escape with the win though.....Wolves had chances in last 10mins to grab equaliser.

nice acca win. can you copy and paste the bet when ya get chance barnsey mate

haha

hopeless

whats hopeless?

Value is just an opinion.

However your value and my value will at some point on the odds scale meet.

You may think that a price of $1.50 is poor value.

Yet I may think $1.50 is good value.


You may think that the same above game at $1.40 is poor value, and I may think that at that price it is poor value too.

Who is right when it comes to the opinion of value????

Well yes GCI, value is an opinion. And the better and more accurate your opinion, the more successful you'll be.  There is a 'true price' for every bet that perfectly sums up the chances of that bet being successful. We can never know for sure what that true price is, but we can judge what we believe it to be. The better our judgement is, and the more often we get a price that's better than the true price, the more successful we'll be.

Let's say the 'true' price of a particular bet is 1.50. You don't know this exact price, but you work everything out and decide that value for you should be 1.60. You only go for that bet if you can get 1.60 or higher. If you do this, and the same bet is replayed time and time again, you'll make money over the long term.

Let's say I come along and look at the same bet. I'm not as good as you. I think 1.25-1.30 should be the true price, and I'm willing to accept 1.35-1.40 as value. I take these prices again and again. Over the long term I'll lose money playing this bet. That's because your judgement is better than mine. As I learn more and improve my judgement, I might get closer to the right price, and might come to realise that 1.35 is a poor deal. But until then, I'm doomed to failure.

Value is about judgement. The better a judge you are, and the more often you correctly identify where there's value (or get close to working out the 'true price', if you prefer), the more successful you'll be.

Thats cool I understand all that.


How about for the next 4 weeks I'll post up my selections


I'll back them with level stakes $100 a bet.

I will run 2 books.

I will have the starting odds on betfair.

Then a book on bets only placed when value is agreed upon using betfairs odds



how does that sound.

We'll have a pretend starting bank of $2000.

Ok I got the topic up and running.

I will restrict it to 1 maybe 2 bets a day, some days will be no bets I will look for what I think are winners firstly then the price if it ticks all boxes we have a bet, then you can chime in and tell me if you think its good value or not, if it isn't the bet wont go on if it is it will go on.

Should be a bit of fun IMO.

No need for criticisms and snide remarks just a bit of good old fashioned harmless fun at no cost too.

Okay. As you say, it should be fun.

GoldCoastinvestor Joined: 28 Aug 10
Replies: 1248 21 Sep 11 08:31   
Ok by your own judgement Man U away are a bit of a liaillity, so Why not lump on them at home win draw no bet??



is this a joke?


pmsl, dude theyre about 1/10 to beat most teams at home[smiley:crazy]

your a joke and so is your mum.

Meanwhile the Bank of Huddersfield profits continue to roll in, 36 unbeaten now, a 4-0 win away to Brentford yesterday and they were a class above. Hope some of you got on and if not it's still not too late to join.

Another 4-0 win away from home today, the train keeps a rolling, 38 unbeaten now and still counting. .

And that's now 39, with Jordan "benchwarmer" Rhodes now having hit 13 goals in his last 5 games. Even I didn't predict a strike rate like that and I've rated the boy for years.

If u have no edge then your best option is to stick the lot on 1 bet to hit your target in one attempt.

And a 2-2 draw at Scunny brings up the 40 unbeaten, though perhaps a close shave tonight as Scunny had 2 penalties saved. If Walsall and Yeovil can be negotiated without defeat, Chelsea's 42 game run will be equalled, leaving only Arsenal's 49 to catch, excluding non-league.

Another day, another winner. For the 41st consecutive game (!!) the lay of their opponents brings home the bacon, today at 5.3. To me the perceived 18% chance of them losing when they've now gone 89% of an entire season's length unbeaten was, as usual, excellent value (both figures rounded down).

As you were, 42 unbeaten now after a 1-1 draw with Walsall. That's Chelsea's run equalled, one more game will put the Terriers in clear second place behind Arsenal's 49. The lay prices are getting bigger though, the market's started to wise up.

I was wrong about Chelsea, it was Notts Forest who did 42 unbeaten. Anyway, that record has now been overtaken and we're up to 43 after yesterday's win against Notts County. Hope the OP is still on board. Toughest possible test next week though, away to League leaders Charlton. Funny thing is last week the Terriesr lost 4-1 away to League 2 Swindon but as it was in the cup it doesn't count of course.

lay alan keytes tips using the ladder system

printing money .

another failed thread i see. i did predict it in the first post

Failed? Huddersfield? You sure about that Frimpong?

you wot david?

Everyone else lost interest in this thread long ago Frimpong but for me the laying of Huddersfield's opponents continues. That has obviously been anything but a failure. When they finally do lose a game perhaps I'll let the thread fade away.

Pouint being Frimpong that if the OP had followed my advice he'd probably be getting quite close to achieving his goal of turning £500 into over £3000 by now. Who knows, maybe he did and is still on board? If they don't lose next week he'll achieve it by then (if he goes for the straight lay option anyway. If he's on DNB it could take longer depending on the result).