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barnsey
19 Sep 11 22:44
Joined:
Date Joined: 28 Mar 11
| Topic/replies: 25 | Blogger: barnsey's blog
My balance is now down to £500 after a few medium stakes loses over the weekend.

I just havent got the time, skill, patience or discipline to make money gambling.

I have 4k outstanding balance on my virgin credit card......and with this £500, want 1 final shot at making £3.5k profit to clear this card, then close down account and stop gambling.

sounds simple......but obviously wont be.

Ive lost big before, and wont lose sleep if this challenge fails and I lose the £500.

I'd like to, if possible, make this £3500 in around 4-5 weeks.........

I just am unsure weather to go for broke on 3 even money shots????

wot u recon guys?

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Replies: 113
By:
paulme
When: 19 Sep 11 22:48
almost impossible but good luck
By:
Horts
When: 19 Sep 11 22:56
perfectly possible but you need time patience and disciplne

£3500 in 5 weeks is £100 per day
20 races at an average profit of £5 per race
By:
catflmasppo
When: 19 Sep 11 22:58
Not impossible.  Around 7/1 I reckon.
By:
paulme
When: 19 Sep 11 22:59
catflap you get my pm?
By:
paulme
When: 19 Sep 11 23:00
as if anyone can win £100 a day consistently on the nags. unless he uses gruss that is
By:
Trevh
When: 20 Sep 11 01:40
Barnsey, the bit of your post that shouts at me is "I just havent got the time, skill, patience or discipline to make money gambling".

Then you go on to express how much you want to gamble the £500.

You can't win because if you make the 7/1 chance you will probably be convinced that you've finally cracked it and continue to blow it all over again, that's how it works, may as well quit now and save the 500.
By:
LordBobbbin
When: 20 Sep 11 02:21
I'm amazed Cat is giving him odds of 7/1.  I'll lay you 12.0 Cat!!
By:
catflmasppo
When: 20 Sep 11 09:00
You're on.  If the op is going to pick three even money shots in reasonably mature markets its unlikely that the odds of him winning are as high as 12.  If he/she does something like Horts suggests I wouldn't even touch 20!  Not because what Horts has said is wrong but without an edge it just won't work.
By:
Gowly
When: 20 Sep 11 11:27
@Barnsey, take it slow, don't set yourself a time limit of 4-5 weeks, just a little a day and try to grow your balance and be selective in what you choose to back, lay or trade.

I'm doing a 100 days to Christmas challenge which I started 4 days ago.  Starting with £500 and trying to increase by 4% a day by laying a couple of nags at 2% a race.  Tested it over the course of the last 4 weeks on paper and got every selection beat, not to say it will happen again but it's abit of fun and if I lose £500 I'm not too concerned but on the other hand may well be a few grand for Christmas.

Good Luck anyway... [;)][;)][;)]
By:
Coachbuster
When: 20 Sep 11 12:21
4-5 weeks ?  your'e bonkers !!!


you need to be looking at 4-5 months at least ,possibly years .



you need time and a certain skill level as well as disipline
By:
GoldCoastinvestor
When: 20 Sep 11 12:36
I'd bet the bank on Man U to win with draw no bet.

You'll get $1.35 each hit, all up it each match just look for games that look like Man U will win.

IE premier league only.
By:
paulme
When: 20 Sep 11 12:55
what about when they lose an EPL game!?
By:
LordBobbbin
When: 20 Sep 11 15:53
Well if that happens then he's in trouble!   And I get to collect on my 12.0 lay!  Woohoo!
By:
GoldCoastinvestor
When: 21 Sep 11 00:30
Paulme I continually shake my head at you.

Its obvious you have no clue on how to making money, atleast you've admitted it.

Now you've had your begging bowl out hussling for scraps, and some people have even given you a 3 course meal, of which you tipped out as it didn't suit your taste at the time.

So in relation to Man U do tell me whch team in the EPL you feel will beat them.

Now betting is based on current form probabillity.

So on current form I can't see a single team beating Man U this years, they ar estreets ahead of their nearest team, They might be unlucky and get held to a draw 2-3 matches but with their current starting lineup they are unbeatable in the EPL. They rolled cjelsea easily and smashed Arsenal  whos next liverpool?? man city?? man city would be the game I sat out of.

I'd rather plonk my bank on them to win draw no bet than lump your bank laying 40-1 outsiders on the horses as you were so keen to do.

Why don't you set aside 50 quid and all up it on Man U every EPL match and if you think a sode has their measure don't backem that week?????


now the soup kitchen opens shortly if that doesn't interest you???
By:
paulme
When: 21 Sep 11 00:39
hmm come back to me if they go all season unbeaten. also west brom were the only team to get a point at OT last season. now who would have singled them out .

MUG
By:
LordBobbbin
When: 21 Sep 11 00:42
I'm not sure I'd exactly label Man U as unbeatable. Form can temporarily go out of the window without a warning Gold Coast, and you never know when even a really good team is going to throw in a shocking game.

I guess 1.21 as a Draw No Bet on them beating Stoke seems a fair price. But Stoke isn't an easy place to go, and you are assuming Man U have completely recovered from their problems on the road last year. They had a lot of very bad results away from OT last season, several of them quite hard to see coming.

And I wouldn't imagine you'd get very good odds on a Draw No Bet if they were at OT.
By:
LordBobbbin
When: 21 Sep 11 00:42
We seem to agree Paul!    I'll get my coat...
By:
paulme
When: 21 Sep 11 00:50
Shockedi need a lie down
By:
catflmasppo
When: 21 Sep 11 07:56
No outcome is certain otherwise it wouldn't be on here.  It;s all a question of probability.  If a football team appear unbeatable their odds will be consequently short.  The job of the successful gambler is to determine whether they are too short or too long and bet accordingly.
By:
GoldCoastinvestor
When: 21 Sep 11 08:24
OK paulme

who do you think is capable of beating Man U on current form in the EPL...............
By:
catflmasppo
When: 21 Sep 11 08:28
I'll answer that, they are all capable of beating Man U.
By:
GoldCoastinvestor
When: 21 Sep 11 08:31
Ok by your own judgement Man U away are a bit of a liaillity, so Why not lump on them at home win draw no bet??
By:
catflmasppo
When: 21 Sep 11 08:39
Is that question for me?
By:
GoldCoastinvestor
When: 21 Sep 11 08:56
Capable and able to are two different things,

Was Arsenal capable yes, but they got steam rolled 8-2

What about Chelsea? capable yes, but got dusted 3-1

I reckon if your disciplined enough and get don't get an unlucky break this dudes $500 bank could go sky high, discipline and a bit of luck.
By:
GoldCoastinvestor
When: 21 Sep 11 08:57
Nah was for Paulme

he is the eternal pesimist, brought on by months of backing losers and has developed the you can't win mentality, He isn't smart enough to formulate a staking system or betting approach.
By:
dlarssonf
When: 21 Sep 11 09:40
GoldCoastinvestor     21 Sep 11 08:31 
Ok by your own judgement Man U away are a bit of a liaillity, so Why not lump on them at home win draw no bet??


all depends on the price, if you are lumping on them at a short price you are doomed, terrible advice.
By:
GoldCoastinvestor
When: 21 Sep 11 10:10
Ok then Einstein whats your advice for this fellow to actually win?????

So far you've stumped up 9/10ths of fk all???
By:
Cardinal Scott
When: 21 Sep 11 10:19
barnsey there are no shortcuts to success, even if your going for broke strategy  (or non strategy) came up trumps you  would be intoxicated with the result leading to more bad decisions.

Making it a pay on here is Pure Drudgery and a Marathon not a Sprint!
By:
paulme
When: 21 Sep 11 10:20
hmm anyone can beat anyone in the EPL on their day so this is ridiculous.

cat flap - unanswered pm's?
By:
GoldCoastinvestor
When: 21 Sep 11 10:27
See paulme, that is another example of your stupidity, your so drunk on losing you can't see a winner even it were gifted to you as many have been in the past.

Your a typical mug punter actually your worse than that your here day in day out begging for a winner or someone to give you a winning system. have you followe dup on that lay the draw system that seems to have merit if you'have discipline?? Nope why?? doesn't win big amounts only wins small amounts and thats not good enough for you is it, you want it all and you don't want to do any leg work for it, fact is punting wise, you'll never win, ever.


You could not win a raffle if you held every ticket
By:
dlarssonf
When: 21 Sep 11 10:31
goldcoast your advice to paulme is to lump on Man Utd at home and then you are on the path to success.  And then you have the cheek to call others stupid.

Your advice is prob some of the most naive I have seen on here. As was already put there is no shortcut to success.  Unless you are backing value or laying value you have no chance to make it pay long term.
By:
paulme
When: 21 Sep 11 10:34
Plain
By:
catflmasppo
When: 21 Sep 11 10:41
The fact that there are so many people on here clueless about value, even those offering advice (!), is the reason it is possible to make a good profit on here.
By:
GoldCoastinvestor
When: 21 Sep 11 11:12
Ok so what is value on a Man U at home win draw no bet.

Give us some figures of value??

I could back a figure that was "value" but if it loses where is the value in that???

take a footy match 1 side is $1.15 the other $8 sure the $8 side is "value" but would you back it???

of course you wouldn't because it is most likely a Man U Vs WBC and even though 8s are good value youy might as well piss your money up the pub wall??
By:
dlarssonf
When: 21 Sep 11 11:16
if I determine 8 is value then yes without a doubt I will back it. I am not concerned short term whether it wins or loses.  I am only concerned with the bigger picture
By:
dizzydavid1
When: 21 Sep 11 11:30
Barnsey, here's another draw no bet idea for you. Huddersfield have not lost for 34 league games. It's an extraordinary run, to put it into context it's the longest ever unbeaten run outside the top flight in 120 odd years of professional football. It's my view that week after week the market underestimates the extent to which this team is able to play 90 minutes without losing. I've done very well out of that so I'm sharing it with you. Despite being 32 then 33 games unbeaten, in both of their last 2 league games they started as underdogs.  This week they're at home to Orient, who can be laid here now at 7.6. Orient have played 9 games this season and not won any of them. The reason I suggets draw no bet is because they have drawn a lot of games during their run. They are resilient, extremely well organised and they've forgotten how to lose. Any team that can leave a striker as talented and prolific as Jordan Rhodes on the bench as often as they do is clearly a superior force at this level. Of course eventually they'll lose some games, maybe even this week, but I'm of the view that following them consistently this season unless and until they suffer a horrendous run of injuries to their best players will continue to be profitable. Even if it's not as profitable as it has been so far during this run, there's a lot of margin for error, as so far there would have been 0 losing bets out of 34 if you'd got in at the very start.
By:
catflmasppo
When: 21 Sep 11 11:41
GoldCoastinvestor

Ok so what is value on a Man U at home win draw no bet.

Give us some figures of value??

I could back a figure that was "value" but if it loses where is the value in that???

take a footy match 1 side is $1.15 the other $8 sure the $8 side is "value" but would you back it???

of course you wouldn't because it is most likely a Man U Vs WBC and even though 8s are good value youy might as well piss your money up the pub wall??


I would go for the value every time, any fool can see than Man U are most likely to win but to make a profit on here you have to be able to assess how likely and if they are shorter than they should be LAY!

I'm not clever enough to do so in this particular case, unfortunately.
By:
GoldCoastinvestor
When: 21 Sep 11 11:50
value is an opinion and it carries no weight in relation to true odds.


I am going to start a thread and in it I'll lump $500 pretend dollars to replicate old mates desire and see where it ends up, will only bet draw no bet, I'll pick out the matches where I think regardless of the price I will back the team I think will provide a win for the bank balance.

See what I can turn $500 into just to prove a point. I bet i can accumulate a balance that would pay off old mates 4K credit card debt in a reasonably short period of time.
By:
dizzydavid1
When: 21 Sep 11 11:51
Gold Coast...make sure you include Huddersfield from time to time.
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