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REALLY THINKING OF GIVING UP THE SEARCH FOR THE HOLY GRAIL
REALLY THINKING OF GIVING UP THE SEARCH FOR THE HOLY GRAIL
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Yeah, you do. If you wait for the few times you're getting good odds on them then there's plenty to be made that way.
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ok good luck thanks for the chat lordbobbin you have woken me up ill not be on here as much anymore because whats the point if i should looking at form and factors anyway u have woken me up and made me relise that to win you must put hard work in and its still no gaurentee to win but first u must work hard thank you
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Yeah, analysing each factor is the key. Good luck Dev. Come back when you're good and winning!
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'Quickly on DFC's systems, I think you need a way of laying out the factors in a way that makes sense to you. I have a couple of programs that take the form for UK and US horses and strip the different factors down to the essentials - calculating pace figures, training figures and the like. A lot of the info I don't want to look at - I simply want to drill down to the bits that I know are important. If I need a more thorough overall picture, I'll look at the form in more depth. '
LordBobbin, how do you get the form into your own programs so that you can customise it? I'm no good with programming/techie stuff but i know people who are (non-racing/betting people) and i've often wondered how i could go about this. Is it possible to customise racecards to show the factors i want to see rather than the standard racecards, for instance. Thanks for any help. |
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If you want to make money without thinking much then act and think like a bookmaker, pick up some papers, Racing post and find out what the likely strong fancies of the day will be as this is what the bookies do, then highlight them if you feel the forecast sp looks very skinny, chances are it will be under-priced as all the chomps in the bookies will be sticking them in there yankees and bets of the day, then all this runs of money will filter down to the bookies HQ and they will send there little
boys at the track to use office money to send the price even lower, then you lay it when its at its lowest price near they off and hey presto, your are a bookmaker, derr can it be any simpler than that. |
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GET it on my son and fill your satchel and your boots.
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duncan idaho 20 Sep 11 06:48
'Quickly on DFC's systems, I think you need a way of laying out the factors in a way that makes sense to you. I have a couple of programs that take the form for UK and US horses and strip the different factors down to the essentials - calculating pace figures, training figures and the like. A lot of the info I don't want to look at - I simply want to drill down to the bits that I know are important. If I need a more thorough overall picture, I'll look at the form in more depth. ' LordBobbin, how do you get the form into your own programs so that you can customise it? I'm no good with programming/techie stuff but i know people who are (non-racing/betting people) and i've often wondered how i could go about this. Is it possible to customise racecards to show the factors i want to see rather than the standard racecards, for instance. Thanks for any help ==================================================================== DI - You can download race card from SL site using a specifically devised program that can then be used to transfer data into a database etc. I got a friend who created a program to do so ( I am not technically minded re programs etc .....but that is what I believe he did) Using a USB device, the data is then entered into the database using a program he again devised for me to click on for that day race card. The horse race system then allocates points for each race to every horse automatically when I click on a box. So the basic "form" ( race history for last set number of races.......together with C,D, C&D etc etc details ....) is dealt with using points for each factor relevant to basic "form" off the card. It also automatically allocates points for trainers ( database within the system...that can be updated) and other relevant factors just using the race card format. So much of the boring stuff is dealt with , including some complicated factors that friend has devised the database programs to do automatically when I click one button etc. The system then allows me to click on boxes against any horse that deserves points for a number of FACTORS that require subjective input. There are a number of columns for each factor at top of page etc. I think it would be very very difficult to devise programs to do the "subjective" part...................Would be extremely time consuming to have databases within the system for certain factors!!!.....So much easier for me to click on BOXES against horses that qualify for more points etc etc It might take me up to 5 minutes to tick boxes etc.....but once boxes are ticked ....i just click on another box and points are again automatically allocated for the boxes ticked. HORSES are then shown in rated order etc. After taking years to get the friend to do above for free, it then has taken me years just to analyse ratings/results....mull over results etc etc.....but all been worthwhile exercise. need to go help in house  cheers the noooooo ...and trust above helps a bit. |
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"...but all been worthwhile exercise." ==> from which point of view, DFC? At the first glance your "system" does not look to be very profitable ... or am I wrong?
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"First glance" means little A..........
You have to analyse hundreds of races ...rate over 10,000 horses...detail results ( when i say "detail" ..........that is fairly comprehensive detail!). Gain a deep understanding of what the system does, then seek the VALUE from it using a constant way of doing it! Check the post on other thread re RACE 1....for LAYING purpose, where "VALUE" /RANK of horse in ratings/MARKET ODDS enable the selection of 1 horse to lay in WIN market. Apply what I posted to other races where 10 runners ( it works that day with races with less runners, but generally works well where 10 or more). Cursory glances mean nothing......... BTW no horse will be layed where odds are 10-1 SP in a race of less than 21 runners......... Gotta go find nap for competition.......Cheers the nooooooooooooo |
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Duncan, it depends on the service you use. All you really need to be able to do is to take the relevant information from the race card and drop it into some kind of text file. If you've got the race card up on a web browser, you can cut and paste it into a text file by hand, for instance. Some services (the Daily Racing Form in the US, for instance) will provide you with their own program that automatically downloads the relevant data into a file for you.
Once you've got the racing form in a text file, you can then do pretty much anything with it you want. You can do numerous calculations on any figure, create averages, rank things in order of certain factors etc. You can choose which factors you want to display, how many races you want to cover, omit certain types of race altogether etc. Obviously, if you want to turn the form into fancy graphs and things, you'll need some decent programming skills. Otherwise, a working knowledge of variables and arrays, loops and file handling is all you really need. I use Visual Basic, which is pretty old fashioned (especially my version!!), and my programming skills are primitive, to say the least. However, even these basic skills are enough for me to take the racing form and instantly create statistics and figures that would take me hours and hours to do by hand. If you've got an idea of what it is you want to do, you could enlist the help of a friend, as DFC has done. However, this is quite limiting. I'm often thinking of new things that I want to try out for a bit. If I had to go back to my friend and get him to tweak the code every time something occurred to me, I'd be barred within a few weeks! I'd seriously recommend getting a programming language and a How-To book, and teaching yourself how to program. It probably won't take you long to get the essentials nailed down, and once you've taught yourself, you'll be surprised how often you want to knock up a simple program to try out a simple theory - whether related to betting or not! |
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Stats yes can be useful, but can mislead. If a team win 2-0 in last game you look at stat and see they win but maybe they score lucky goal? I believe very much in ture form and stat form. The only way you see true form is by watching game and game and game, yes it can be boring. If you like football so much, as a start point, pick one league this season and only bet on this league, learn this league and every player. Watch the game, watch highlight, learn the team, the manager, how he acts in situation of different game. Learn inside out, who make the team play etc........,
eg. that playmaker in centre pitch is main player who is out injured. He is very clever passer who can make the great play, the player come in for him, can he do the same? if you watch enough game and see how a team function you can see better picture if the team can still perform. I do this for Italian football, this is a level I play for. To have idea of every manager (hard to learn in Italy as sacked every week), player and importance to side Keep record of evry game you watch, write notes, who play well, who is important. build up infos on everything. Use this to take into next game EG Roma Roma have team in progress but now are not showing level or team play to reach potential right now. Mug punter will see Roma on coupon and see short odds, sure win..right? Wrong! Now roma have not correct balance or understanding in side yet. Against small team like Cagliari who defend and Roma expect to smash, roma pass, pass, pass, no finish moves. They are open to counter attack and get beat in a game they dominate. Agianst Inter away, a different game plan to Cagliari and a game which Roma must defend and counter. If Roma had a ready team they could have beat Inter but they are not at that level yet. We draw 0-0. average punter will see next game at home to Siena. They may look at Inter result and think, Roma have improve to bet on, they must beat Siena, who is Siena? but Siena will come to play like Cagliari and how can we be sure Roma have learned the system to create chances, the movement etc when all we have to go on is Cagliari match. Sorry for long post but I hope you get to see what I say. I am saying this because I see you talk about world football, yes it would be good to know many leagues but I think you should league a few inside out than just look at number stats of all league |
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Yes. Very good post.
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I see him as being one of those theoretical bettors who's far more interested in betting theory then he is in actual betting.
agree. again beautifully put. LB do use relatively large stakes when you find a horse you like in the place market then? |
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Relatively large for me. It usually takes several successful lays to add up to one place bet.
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what about that £850 i put on maunsells duke to place? anywhere near that big?
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Now is that the 200th time I have heard about Maunsell's Duke ....
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Not yet Paulie!!
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haha he replies to that. strange fruit you are undern. i think it may be time for a greggs...
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DFCIRONMAN and LordBobbin, thanks v much for the replies. LordB, i'm afraid if you're programming skills are primitive, mine are positively neanderthal
 ...not sure when i'll be able to teach myself how to program, as i still need to get to grips with Excel first! Really all i want in the short term is to customise racecards so that i can discard stuff like C (course) and D (distance) symbols and include the last 6 ORs for each horse and the last 6 pace figs i have for each horse (plus the ability to flag up if i've noted horses to be B2L (Back to Lay) or L2B propositions). Not too bothered about crunching numbers and systems...i had Raceform Interactive for a couple of years and used the query database lots but found that even some of the positive findings just bogged me down when it came to day-to-day racing...there's too much to cover as it is and i'm primarily a racereader/form man. Thanks again for sparing the time. duncan |
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I hate Excel too! Visual Basic is definitely more fun. (And yes, I know Excel is partially based on VB, but it lacks the fun bits as far as I'm concerned!)
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Don't give up, the Holy grail is just around the corner
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