devs writing style has changed since the beginning of this thread

Think you'll find that's because it's turned midnight.

pual me i most go i should only return if i become sucessful theres people on here that dont want me they have in for me


BUT I WILL RISE TO THE TOP REVOLUTION

Systems are very hard to develop unless you have real expertise. Your best bet is to try and generate various statistics that'll allow you to pinpoint situations where a bet is underpriced or overpriced. Combine that with a general reading of the factors, and you should be onto something.

Lordbobbion although your quite correct, how will he achieve this without self discipline in the first place?

lordbobbin you really havnt got a clue  its a learning process if you make money now im 110% sure you didnt start winning instantly


and i do have discpline if i didnt have discpline i would have rosario central as one of my picks but did i pick them no when  but my main reason was becuase they lost 2 nil in thier last game on paper they look a very likely to win did i pick them the answer is no becuase of my theorys is i dont pick teams that lost thier last game espeiallt=y ny two goals did i pixk them no even when they look very likely winners

yes value is the key lordboboin as you said systems are very hard to make and using your head is the only way  im just going to keep trying hard and trying theres no harm when your paper betting or playin g small stakes like 4 pound or two pound



lordbobbin what sport do u bet on

and the team i avoided are getting beat now 2-1 and for proof i wenr on to the forum and said i wouldnt get involved with that team

has he not had a bet?

where have i ever said i make money lord bobbin now u are lying to make a story



lordboobin i have betted b4 but i havnt betted in ages


i said there is no sytstems can you read that was my problem i blieve in systems so started searching and trying to develop one when i always knew using my head was the only way

i have betted i was betting big on 1.05 shots once won money but got out as i know there was no value in what i was doing long term but i went on an incredible winning streak so i got lucky

and i havnt bet since that  and that was like 4 months ago accept for 2 pound bet yesterday as i left ten pound in my acccount to watch bf live video

Dev, you do understand that when I talk about 'BFF', I'm not talking about you, don't you?!   For the record, I'm very happy to say that I've never said you make money!!

I know you've finally dismissed the idea that you'll be able to come up with a proper mechanical system. I agreed with you on that. Now go and read my 01:52 post again and see if it makes sense this time...

100 PERECENT AGREE WITH YOU THERE LORDBOBBIN



WHAT IS YOUR THING BACKING HORSES OR LAYING HORSES

IS BFF BETFAIR FANANTIC IS HE NOT YOUR M8 IM CONFUSED

TR - you say

THE-REVOLUTIONARY. 20 Sep 11 02:52 
where have i ever said i make money lord bobbin now u are lying to make a story



lordboobin i have betted b4 but i havnt betted in ages


i said there is no sytstems can you read that was my problem i blieve in systems so started searching and trying to develop one when i always knew using my head was the only way
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Maybe with such a simple sport as FOOTBALL can you quickly appraise a game using your head,


However, HORSES is far more complicated than simple FOOTBALL .......and you can't IMO rely on your head to calculations accurately and take all information in that is relevant re RACE TYPE and the point in season....on the GOING in the CLASS of race etc etc etc


If you have the "grail" (never know what correct spelling of this is !)..... re HORSES....it is impossible for the head to do as well as a system of rating a race. IMO


There are more than 100 FACTORS that can come into ratings being reasonable standard ...........

With FOOTBALL ...probably only , at CLUB LEVEL, about ess than 20 factors.....so it is "simpler" to weigh up games....BUT odds are not so good IMO....as the masses bet on FOOTBALL.

LordB,
Youre far too patient and kind for your own good.

Dev, I generally look for a horse that I strongly believe to be the best in the race. The vast majority of races I can't find one and pass straight over - even in US racing, with dozens of races a night, I rarely find more than a handful of horses I really like.   There are various factors I look for, so it varies from pick to pick. Sometimes I'll be betting on there being a really strong early pace which should set it up nicely for a closing horse. Sometimes I'll just think a horse has superior speed figures and times (consistency is the clue here - several good races in the last four are usually required for me to be interested). Sometimes there'll be a new trainer angle. There are other angles as well, but it's really just looking for a pattern that I know works over time.

Once I've found a horse, I'll look at the odds. I'll generally have an idea of what sort of price I'd be willing to accept and I try my hardest to resist backing below that price. Often the odds will be too short for my liking and I'll pass.  Over the course of a night I may find a couple of races that I actually want to play. Quite often I won't even find that many, so I am very picky!  Quite often the horses are favourites, but not necessarily. It's more the price that I focus on rather than where the horse is in the betting.

I play a few lays a night, but those usually make less money per bet - the liability will generally be higher than on my place bets, so I keep the stakes smaller there.   I do like laying though. In far too many races, there are horses trading at prices they simply can't justify (not necessarily the favourites - I lay lots of horses at prices of 4.0-8.0).

do u only bet on the us racing i thought i seen u on there forums

Yeah Dev, I do pop up on the forums. However, I'd seriously recommend not posting races on the forums. The problem is that you find yourself spending time analysing whatever races are coming up. And that often means you analyse races you would never have been interested in to begin with. And then you find yourself feeling compelled to take positions on those races, because if you don't, you're essentially dismissing the analysis you just posted up as not being trustworthy...  So then you end up losing money on a race you wouldn't usually have even considered betting on. That makes you feel humiliated, so you then go onto the next race and find yourself betting on that one etc.

Don't post selections up on the forum. It'll just get you into bad habits. Play races you feel you've found an angle on, and ignore all the rest.  If you go a whole night without placing any bets, so be it.

yes theres no point betting becuase its man united v arsenal if you cant find a reason to make a dicison based on value no bet


thats why i didnt understand all these guys getting into a frenzy over cheltenham its great competitive racing as thier all championship races but is it good from a betting perspective in your opionion

Cheltenham is a gamblers' graveyard. The bookies love it because all sorts of punters get sucked into the hype.  The odd wise head will look for a few value bets and play just those. Most of us should simply stay away though.

Personally I try to bet on the big races as little as possible. I find the form much easier to read on the low value stuff. Who cares about the quality of the race as long as we're making a good bet??