Advice would be greatly appreciated!

Good Afternoon,

Another bountiful day with 16 lays and no scares, despite the god awful conditions. It is slightly more exciting doing this for real money. Im being careful not too get carried away and being rigid with my rules.

cheers

Boardroom.

the 1000/1 shots is like blackburn to win the league, bets like that?

is it in the corners market investor?

Yeah, that's the one Francis.

what sort of bank would you need to make it work Investor?

whoops lot to learn

Even at £2 stakes, a 1000 lay is going to hurt...

laying 66s!
would rather
watch paint dry

paulme
Date Joined: 20 Jan 11
Add contact | Send message
When: 14 Sep 11 01:49
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 2,759 | Blogger: paulme's blog
what sort of bank would you need to make it work Investor?

If you're not already making money, stick to a small bank and place a lot of small bets (£2 or £3) to figure out what works.

When you start making money in a predictable way, scale up to whatever level you can.

Of course 'small' is different for different people and depends on your own level of wealth/income etc.

Depending on your own personality, you should also be betting at a level where you care whether you win or lose.

Good afternnon fellow forumites. Another 16 succesful lays today. I am glad that i waited till now before  began with real money as i stake with confidence.

Have a great evening,

Boardroom.

good luck boardroom , i also have done paper trading , and have now gone live , have made a reasonable return for me , and its on the football , again good luck to you , albert

Many thanks Albert.. I wish u success with the footie!

can you explain the method a bit more please investor. i cant win on here any other way so may aswell try anything

Ouch!  Not exactly a positive attitude there!!

take advantage of the bookie offers, learn what makes odds move and make money at the same time.

I know of at least one strategy that makes a 12-18% return on bank per annum, laying 15000 shots at 1000. Hardly worth it for a PC2 payer, I used to make the equivalent of about 40% on this when I had spare capital available, but now the margin has been driven down to the point where I don't bother.

sorry i mean THAT investor

i know what makes odds move

I mean using money to lay stuff at 1000 that has true odds of 10000. It can be pretty tedious, and as there is a lot of competition for 'free money' I don't bother much anymore. Big bank required too.

This is stuff that comes relevant when you start to reach maximum capacity for winning strategies.

The best thing to do for you is bookie offers. It's really such a no brainer.

the bookies offers? whats this? opening the accounts,free bet,lay on here is it? i thought u did this paulo,i remember it being said to u before?

Has anyone considered the intrinsic problem with using a system that lays runners at big odds only
and that is that if you betting a percentage of your bank and watching it grow handsomely that when eventually you have to pay out a say 66/1 runner say at a matched £5 for instance your average bet will of mean somewhere between your initial stake size say £2 and the current £5 so there for you have paid out at a maximum stake value but your average return may of been as low as £3.50 so if operating on a modest margin you still make a loss overall, this is where level stakes comes into its own but laying off big prices and using it for growth is very counter productive logically and fiscally.

Evening all,

Managed only 12 lays today but its better than nowt.

Good luck all

Im laying to a fixed liability and will not increase this until the bank has grown by 25% and then maybe only an additional £20 to £220.

I think this will take away some of the issues u discuss above, bf fanatic.

Well at least i hope it will.

Hi boardroom, my advice would be to do the following stakeplan

1.....determine the average profit margin of system via survey research.

2.....use level stakes that are safe enough to withstand bad losing runs relative to risk for the bank

3.....either increase in steps after a set amount of bets or a set amount of overall profit has been reached.

4.....avoid the temptation to keep increasing frequently the bet size just because the bank has grown
as you will have to pay a loser out at some point and you need the average bet to be as similar
as possible to the losing stake.

5.....above all be patient and careful and you will prosper in the long run so play the long game.

bff i read alot of your posts and enjoy them. you intreague me greatly. can you tell me a little more about yourself please?

He used to be a circus clown. And he likes Penelope Pitstop.  Oh, and as a youngster he liked to be in the back of cars squeezed between two dogs. (I'm talking greyhounds Paul. Take your mind out of the gutter!)

That enough information for you?

as a fellow writer LB do you agree his posts demonstrate a certain level of comic/literary charm?

They often have an entertaining concept at the heart of them.  I think his punctuation and use of English often leaves a little to be desired however..

Good Morning,

Back in after night out and happy to report another 17 lays today.

Past the break even point now so profit no matter when the run comes.

Hoping the average remains intact.

Enjoy your Weekend

A fantastic day all round, 25 lays today at an average of £5 per lay. There were a lot of great opportunities today.

enjoy ure night

cheers

boardroom

Only 10 lays today. This may be the way its going to be as the flat season ends and the jumps takes over. Still pleased with the approach and interestingly only 2 placed horses in this latest run of lays.

I may have to look into the past results to see if place laying these horses may be profitable too.

May as well have as many strings to ones bow as is possible.

cheers

Baordroom

19 succesful lays today... Better than id initially hoped for as some horses were surprisingle good value to lay today.

Hoping the run continues

Good Luck All

Another 12 lays today. A pleasing result.... there will clearly be less opportunities over the jumps if recent days are anything to go by. We shall see

cheers

boardroom

this is not all in is it?

Will he actually admit it when he eventually hits a 100/1 shot?

There would be no reason for me not too. I would only be kidding myself on. I am using this thread to keep me disciplined and motivated to continue untill either the stratedgy fails or perhaps, just perhaps, it continues to produce an edge. We shall see.

cheers

Boadroom

Think he's laying them at 1000/1!  Pretty painful if it ever goes wrong. Of course, if the horse is 1000 in running, the race is pretty much over for it, so it does seem fairly safe. (As long as you're not doing Antepost - I remember when Kicking King was effectively ruled out of the 2005 Gold Cup through illness only to recover and come back to win, almost £50 had been matched at 1000!  Those layers must have been seething...)

And you do only need to get it wrong the once with that strategy...

He's already said what odds range he lays and for how much.

Boardroom, you won't know if the "strategy fails" until you've covered several more months yet, and taking 2 or 3 hits in a row would mean nothing in itself.

Given the odds he's working with, I think taking 2 or 3 hits in a row would mean quite a lot to him!

Undoubtedly LordBobbin, but it would mean nothing in terms of assessing long term edge. Many a winning method has been ditched due to human frailty.

Yes yes. I understand that.

boardroom

By my reckoning you've racked up 141 winning lays since 11/09/11.

So how does the average BSP of the above compare to that recorded when you were paper trading?

copy
and
paste
all
bets
here
after
each
day
.
instead
of
telling
us
the
winning
amount.

The average Betfair S.P on the latest run has been roughly 59.0 which is slightly below the average achieved when paper trading the 3000  bets. I can see how this has occured, as there have been a lot more races recently that fit the stratedgy where the prices in my view were better value than during the summer months, this of course be caused by the changing ground conditions and the prices being factored into that.

There were 14 lays today which was a good return especially with a lot of small fields at Perth.

boardroom

Thanks for the info on BSP.

141 winning lays each returning on average approx. £3.20 (assuming 5% commission).

Add in the winnings from today and you must be very close to that 25% increase in the bank you referred to a while back?

14 lays all today, a pleasing day.

Yes im close to an increase in liability as the 25% increase in bank was achieved today. My only concern is  the loser, as soon as i increase liability (sods law).

The lowest run of winners was 95 and the biggest 593, whilst paper trading. I suppose i should increase my liability tomorrow.

Ill report back on that decision tomorrow.
boardroom

good luck all

Stick to the staking plan rigidly Boardroom, no room for superstition :)

Evening all, a great day with loads of laying opportunities at good value (in my book). 19 Lays today at an increased liability of £225.

Have a great weekend

Boardroom

Boardroom whats your points profit so far since you started betting your system with cash? stating you have x lays today doesn't really tell us much so it would be nice to be able to pat you on the back if we knew how well your system is doing.

average lay price (46.0) today was below average, mainly because of the competative racing on offer.

19 lays returned a profit of £86 after commission.

Ok thanks for yesterdays profit report but wheres your overall report?

bff i've said many times you intreague me. how old are you? what are your main hobbies?

HE IS 14 YEARS OLD



AND IS VERY GOOD AT CONQUERS

17 lays over the weekend, not great but better than nothing.

In response to bf the stratedgy has produced a profit of £589 so far.

thats really good going. what sort of stakes/bets are you employing here?

Paul the bets were to a fixed liability of £200 until the bank reached +%25, since then the liability has been increased too £225.

There were a dissapointing 9 lays that met the criteria today. I suppose the number will likely drop during the winter period, we shall see.

good luck all

boardroom

Paul the bets were to a fixed liability of £200 until the bank reached +%25, since then the liability has been increased too £225.

There were a dissapointing 9 lays that met the criteria today. I suppose the number will likely drop during the winter period, we shall see.

good luck all

boardroom

what sports mate?

boardrooms system will start to get into trouble as winter sets in, sept-jan is a difficult time for horses and there trainers, flat horses are winding down and some flat maidens are sent in to win at big odds, the National hunt is getting into swing and all this seasonal adjustment to training regimes
of horses coupled with the changes in weather means many big outsiders will be winning soon, and if boardroom is laying this group without great care he may get into some bother.

true bff. enjoying a late night tipple? any bets today?

Hi Paul, no bets as yet, cant risk anything with no cultured and test edge , been real busy with stuff at mo, don't drink much, just very occasionally, but I can drink [;)]

busy with what sorry? the forum?

very funny, no the forums a distraction not my apparent dedication[;)]

jus messing with ya. i though you were unemployed? you busy job hunting then, or lemme guess searching for the betfair holy grail?

Hows your search for the lesser spotted profit margin going Paul

£10-20 a day is all i can manage just now. reckon many people are making much more?

you didnt say what you were busy with mate

Busy with all-sorts of things, what do you bet in and what are you currently using for research of data?

well im too busy with work but footy and horses mainly. you still out of work?

Only 11 lays today, ive been ultra cautious as the ground has gone soft at present. I have made a decision  not lay on heavy ground and if the stratedgy begins to deviate off the norm during the winter i will close it down till the spring, we shall see.

best of luck to you all

Boardroom

Can give you some sound advice, beware of horses that haven't had a run this season on the national hunt as there form may read 445PPP but after a long lay off there form will have changed and 66/1 for this kind of form condition is actually profitable if backed, let them run at least once if they haven't run for 90 days to evaluate there current form.

bf_fananatic

"Can give you some sound advice, beware of horses that haven't had a run this season on the national hunt as there form may read 445PPP but after a long lay off there form will have changed and 66/1 for this kind of form condition is actually profitable if backed...."

Do you have any stats to back up this advice?

Yeah, via private messaging only, certainly not giving all my secrets away, reply to my message and follow the instructions and I will show you the verified data.

Thanks but no thanks.

wd boardroom

directed at Paulme.

So Paulme you go around the whole forum asking everyone to post their bets just to prove themselves to you ... yet this OP puts up a post everynight saying ' Layed 12 today, Layed 18 today, Layed 15 today ... ' yet all you can say is "wd boardroom"

Come on Paulme - you harass all those punters on the P&L thread on the football - why aren't you harrasing the OP in this thread

go bore your wife undern rather than being a bore on here

just want some consistency with your questioning across all forums, threads and fellow forum users .... is that so much to ask

Any update to this challenge Boardroom ?

Boardroom, your posts have stopped, has your system gone tits up mate

Hi all,

Following a short break with the Mrs u will be delighted to here that there were 20 lays today.

I wish u all a enjoyable weekend.

cheers

Boardroom

Current profit from this run now £701 after commission. Getting closer to the average run now so we will see if this continues.

cheers

Boardroom

well done mate

Well that day finally came and i hit one.

The run lasted 231 lays at a profit after commission of £745. A £225 loss today shows an overall profit of £520.

Following the loser i have layed 15 today which is a pleasing start to the new run.

cheers

Boardroom

boardroom,I added up your lays and came to 257 before the last day with a loser.
  You really should put more effort into this story if you want to become a forum "legend".

May add few info for the unbelievers?
"Following the loser i have layed 15 today which is a pleasing start to the new run."



What was your loosing bet? I suppose it was Kie that won at Kelso yesterday (the only horse that won having a high BSP). A bit impossible to LAY 15 after the HIT ... there were about 5-6 horses with BSP odds between 50 and 100 yesterday ... in total [:x][:o]

how do i join this great system

Boardroom, what was your losing bet? Good luck with the future bets. It is good to read an intelligent thread on this form.

Looks like Boardroom has been caught out making this up.

Boardroom - are you able to update your thread .....

I reckon he has gone into retirement but not likely to be on a sunny beach counting his millions [;)]

defo not. having a nice wet weekend bff? few beers tonight mate?

i hope hes not laying today

nope. RIP thread

The best fishing trip ever. 'Sharp minds'

Possibly..? Interesting thread though.. Will he be back to defend the figure fudging accusations? Hope so..

doubt it

Yep, he was on earlier so guess he was just a wind up merchant..

Honestly, I personally have had 25 successfull lays today,all odds on. what you mean you don't believe me? Now I ask you in all sincerity would anybody lie on the forum? Surely that never happens?