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boardroom
10 Sep 11 19:57
Joined:
Date Joined: 10 Sep 11
| Topic/replies: 41 | Blogger: boardroom's blog
I have been working on an edge which looks at laying pre off.  I have paper traded the results and from 3000 selected horses over 6 months ( End of March till beginning of September) there have been only 12 that beat me.

The prices have averaged out at 66/1 B.P.

Are there any views as too wether the time has come to move into small stakes or should this be run for 12 months to be completely confident.

TIA for any advice.
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Report boardroom September 13, 2011 5:29 PM BST
Good Afternoon,

Another bountiful day with 16 lays and no scares, despite the god awful conditions. It is slightly more exciting doing this for real money. Im being careful not too get carried away and being rigid with my rules.

cheers

Boardroom.
Report aueng September 13, 2011 5:43 PM BST
the 1000/1 shots is like blackburn to win the league, bets like that?
Report Francis Benali September 13, 2011 6:16 PM BST
is it in the corners market investor?
Report TheInvestor2 September 13, 2011 10:17 PM BST
Yeah, that's the one Francis.
Report paulme September 14, 2011 1:49 AM BST
what sort of bank would you need to make it work Investor?
Report aueng September 14, 2011 2:44 PM BST
whoops Sad lot to learn
Report LordBobbbin September 14, 2011 2:47 PM BST
Even at £2 stakes, a 1000 lay is going to hurt...
Report greedkillsmybankagain September 14, 2011 3:52 PM BST
laying 66s!
would rather
watch paint dry
Report TheInvestor2 September 14, 2011 4:15 PM BST
paulme
Date Joined: 20 Jan 11
Add contact | Send message
When: 14 Sep 11 01:49
Joined:
Date Joined: 20 Jan 11
| Topic/replies: 2,759 | Blogger: paulme's blog
what sort of bank would you need to make it work Investor?


If you're not already making money, stick to a small bank and place a lot of small bets (£2 or £3) to figure out what works.

When you start making money in a predictable way, scale up to whatever level you can.

Of course 'small' is different for different people and depends on your own level of wealth/income etc.

Depending on your own personality, you should also be betting at a level where you care whether you win or lose.
Report boardroom September 14, 2011 5:13 PM BST
Good afternnon fellow forumites. Another 16 succesful lays today. I am glad that i waited till now before  began with real money as i stake with confidence.

Have a great evening,

Boardroom.
Report albert stubbins September 14, 2011 5:33 PM BST
good luck boardroom , i also have done paper trading , and have now gone live , have made a reasonable return for me , and its on the football , again good luck to you , albert
Report boardroom September 14, 2011 5:39 PM BST
Many thanks Albert.. I wish u success with the footie!
Report MrHunt September 14, 2011 5:49 PM BST
Love
Report paulme September 14, 2011 10:01 PM BST
can you explain the method a bit more please investor. i cant win on here any other way so may aswell try anything
Report LordBobbbin September 14, 2011 10:04 PM BST
Ouch!  Not exactly a positive attitude there!!
Report TheInvestor2 September 14, 2011 10:05 PM BST
take advantage of the bookie offers, learn what makes odds move and make money at the same time.
Report paulme September 14, 2011 10:11 PM BST
I know of at least one strategy that makes a 12-18% return on bank per annum, laying 15000 shots at 1000. Hardly worth it for a PC2 payer, I used to make the equivalent of about 40% on this when I had spare capital available, but now the margin has been driven down to the point where I don't bother.

sorry i mean THAT investor
Report paulme September 14, 2011 10:11 PM BST
i know what makes odds move
Report TheInvestor2 September 14, 2011 11:43 PM BST
I mean using money to lay stuff at 1000 that has true odds of 10000. It can be pretty tedious, and as there is a lot of competition for 'free money' I don't bother much anymore. Big bank required too.

This is stuff that comes relevant when you start to reach maximum capacity for winning strategies.

The best thing to do for you is bookie offers. It's really such a no brainer.
Report aueng September 15, 2011 1:36 PM BST
the bookies offers? whats this? opening the accounts,free bet,lay on here is it? i thought u did this paulo,i remember it being said to u before?
Report bf_fananatic September 15, 2011 1:55 PM BST
Has anyone considered the intrinsic problem with using a system that lays runners at big odds only
and that is that if you betting a percentage of your bank and watching it grow handsomely that when eventually you have to pay out a say 66/1 runner say at a matched £5 for instance your average bet will of mean somewhere between your initial stake size say £2 and the current £5 so there for you have paid out at a maximum stake value but your average return may of been as low as £3.50 so if operating on a modest margin you still make a loss overall, this is where level stakes comes into its own but laying off big prices and using it for growth is very counter productive logically and fiscally.Cool
Report boardroom September 15, 2011 8:38 PM BST
Evening all,

Managed only 12 lays today but its better than nowt.

Good luck all
Report boardroom September 15, 2011 8:40 PM BST
Im laying to a fixed liability and will not increase this until the bank has grown by 25% and then maybe only an additional £20 to £220.

I think this will take away some of the issues u discuss above, bf fanatic.

Well at least i hope it will.
Report bf_fananatic September 15, 2011 10:02 PM BST
Hi boardroom, my advice would be to do the following stakeplan

1.....determine the average profit margin of system via survey research.

2.....use level stakes that are safe enough to withstand bad losing runs relative to risk for the bank

3.....either increase in steps after a set amount of bets or a set amount of overall profit has been reached.

4.....avoid the temptation to keep increasing frequently the bet size just because the bank has grown
as you will have to pay a loser out at some point and you need the average bet to be as similar
as possible to the losing stake.

5.....above all be patient and careful and you will prosper in the long run so play the long game.
Report paulme September 16, 2011 9:45 PM BST
bff i read alot of your posts and enjoy them. you intreague me greatly. can you tell me a little more about yourself please?
Report LordBobbbin September 16, 2011 10:11 PM BST
He used to be a circus clown. And he likes Penelope Pitstop.  Oh, and as a youngster he liked to be in the back of cars squeezed between two dogs. (I'm talking greyhounds Paul. Take your mind out of the gutter!)

That enough information for you?
Report paulme September 16, 2011 10:17 PM BST
Laugh

as a fellow writer LB do you agree his posts demonstrate a certain level of comic/literary charm?
Report LordBobbbin September 16, 2011 10:20 PM BST
They often have an entertaining concept at the heart of them.  I think his punctuation and use of English often leaves a little to be desired however..
Report boardroom September 17, 2011 1:15 AM BST
Good Morning,

Back in after night out and happy to report another 17 lays today.

Past the break even point now so profit no matter when the run comes.

Hoping the average remains intact.

Enjoy your Weekend
Report boardroom September 17, 2011 6:44 PM BST
A fantastic day all round, 25 lays today at an average of £5 per lay. There were a lot of great opportunities today.

enjoy ure night

cheers

boardroom
Report boardroom September 18, 2011 6:16 PM BST
Only 10 lays today. This may be the way its going to be as the flat season ends and the jumps takes over. Still pleased with the approach and interestingly only 2 placed horses in this latest run of lays.

I may have to look into the past results to see if place laying these horses may be profitable too.

May as well have as many strings to ones bow as is possible.

cheers

Baordroom
Report boardroom September 19, 2011 8:07 PM BST
19 succesful lays today... Better than id initially hoped for as some horses were surprisingle good value to lay today.

Hoping the run continues

Good Luck All
Report boardroom September 20, 2011 8:28 PM BST
Another 12 lays today. A pleasing result.... there will clearly be less opportunities over the jumps if recent days are anything to go by. We shall see

cheers

boardroom
Report paulme September 20, 2011 11:00 PM BST
this is not all in is it?
Report no moves September 20, 2011 11:44 PM BST
Will he actually admit it when he eventually hits a 100/1 shot?
Report boardroom September 21, 2011 12:08 AM BST
There would be no reason for me not too. I would only be kidding myself on. I am using this thread to keep me disciplined and motivated to continue untill either the stratedgy fails or perhaps, just perhaps, it continues to produce an edge. We shall see.

cheers

Boadroom
Report LordBobbbin September 21, 2011 12:12 AM BST
Think he's laying them at 1000/1!  Pretty painful if it ever goes wrong. Of course, if the horse is 1000 in running, the race is pretty much over for it, so it does seem fairly safe. (As long as you're not doing Antepost - I remember when Kicking King was effectively ruled out of the 2005 Gold Cup through illness only to recover and come back to win, almost £50 had been matched at 1000!  Those layers must have been seething...)

And you do only need to get it wrong the once with that strategy...
Report Trevh September 21, 2011 1:37 AM BST
He's already said what odds range he lays and for how much.

Boardroom, you won't know if the "strategy fails" until you've covered several more months yet, and taking 2 or 3 hits in a row would mean nothing in itself.
Report LordBobbbin September 21, 2011 1:53 AM BST
Given the odds he's working with, I think taking 2 or 3 hits in a row would mean quite a lot to him!
Report Trevh September 21, 2011 3:47 AM BST
Undoubtedly LordBobbin, but it would mean nothing in terms of assessing long term edge. Many a winning method has been ditched due to human frailty.
Report LordBobbbin September 21, 2011 3:50 AM BST
Yes yes. I understand that.
Report top2rated September 21, 2011 8:42 AM BST
boardroom

By my reckoning you've racked up 141 winning lays since 11/09/11.

So how does the average BSP of the above compare to that recorded when you were paper trading?
Report greedkillsmybankagain September 21, 2011 3:01 PM BST
copy
and
paste
all
bets
here
after
each
day
.
instead
of
telling
us
the
winning
amount.
Report boardroom September 21, 2011 7:51 PM BST
The average Betfair S.P on the latest run has been roughly 59.0 which is slightly below the average achieved when paper trading the 3000  bets. I can see how this has occured, as there have been a lot more races recently that fit the stratedgy where the prices in my view were better value than during the summer months, this of course be caused by the changing ground conditions and the prices being factored into that.

There were 14 lays today which was a good return especially with a lot of small fields at Perth.
Report top2rated September 21, 2011 8:39 PM BST
boardroom

Thanks for the info on BSP.

141 winning lays each returning on average approx. £3.20 (assuming 5% commission).

Add in the winnings from today and you must be very close to that 25% increase in the bank you referred to a while back?
Report boardroom September 22, 2011 8:42 PM BST
14 lays all today, a pleasing day.

Yes im close to an increase in liability as the 25% increase in bank was achieved today. My only concern is  the loser, as soon as i increase liability (sods law).

The lowest run of winners was 95 and the biggest 593, whilst paper trading. I suppose i should increase my liability tomorrow.

Ill report back on that decision tomorrow.
boardroom

good luck all
Report Trevh September 22, 2011 9:31 PM BST
Stick to the staking plan rigidly Boardroom, no room for superstition :)
Report boardroom September 24, 2011 12:10 AM BST
Evening all, a great day with loads of laying opportunities at good value (in my book). 19 Lays today at an increased liability of £225.

Have a great weekend

Boardroom
Report bf_fananatic September 24, 2011 12:19 AM BST
Boardroom whats your points profit so far since you started betting your system with cash? stating you have x lays today doesn't really tell us much so it would be nice to be able to pat you on the back if we knew how well your system is doing.
Report boardroom September 24, 2011 12:38 AM BST
average lay price (46.0) today was below average, mainly because of the competative racing on offer.

19 lays returned a profit of £86 after commission.
Report bf_fananatic September 24, 2011 12:41 AM BST
Ok thanks for yesterdays profit report but wheres your overall report?
Report paulme September 24, 2011 1:07 AM BST
bff i've said many times you intreague me. how old are you? what are your main hobbies?
Report CASHINVEST September 24, 2011 1:14 AM BST
HE IS 14 YEARS OLD



AND IS VERY GOOD AT CONQUERS
Report boardroom September 25, 2011 7:13 PM BST
17 lays over the weekend, not great but better than nothing.

In response to bf the stratedgy has produced a profit of £589 so far.
Report paulme September 26, 2011 12:06 AM BST
thats really good going. what sort of stakes/bets are you employing here?
Report boardroom September 26, 2011 4:36 PM BST
Paul the bets were to a fixed liability of £200 until the bank reached +%25, since then the liability has been increased too £225.

There were a dissapointing 9 lays that met the criteria today. I suppose the number will likely drop during the winter period, we shall see.

good luck all

boardroom
Report boardroom September 26, 2011 4:36 PM BST
Paul the bets were to a fixed liability of £200 until the bank reached +%25, since then the liability has been increased too £225.

There were a dissapointing 9 lays that met the criteria today. I suppose the number will likely drop during the winter period, we shall see.

good luck all

boardroom
Report paulme September 27, 2011 12:22 AM BST
what sports mate?
Report bf_fananatic September 27, 2011 12:29 AM BST
boardrooms system will start to get into trouble as winter sets in, sept-jan is a difficult time for horses and there trainers, flat horses are winding down and some flat maidens are sent in to win at big odds, the National hunt is getting into swing and all this seasonal adjustment to training regimes
of horses coupled with the changes in weather means many big outsiders will be winning soon, and if boardroom is laying this group without great care he may get into some bother.
Report paulme September 27, 2011 12:31 AM BST
true bff. enjoying a late night tipple? any bets today?
Report bf_fananatic September 27, 2011 1:00 AM BST
Hi Paul, no bets as yet, cant risk anything with no cultured and test edge , been real busy with stuff at mo, don't drink much, just very occasionally, but I can drink [;)]
Report paulme September 27, 2011 1:01 AM BST
busy with what sorry? the forum?
Report bf_fananatic September 27, 2011 1:03 AM BST
very funny, no the forums a distraction not my apparent dedication[;)]
Report paulme September 27, 2011 1:05 AM BST
jus messing with ya. i though you were unemployed? you busy job hunting then, or lemme guess searching for the betfair holy grail?
Report bf_fananatic September 27, 2011 1:09 AM BST
Hows your search for the lesser spotted profit margin going Paul
Report paulme September 27, 2011 1:15 AM BST
£10-20 a day is all i can manage just now. reckon many people are making much more?

you didnt say what you were busy with mate
Report bf_fananatic September 27, 2011 1:20 AM BST
Busy with all-sorts of things, what do you bet in and what are you currently using for research of data?
Report paulme September 27, 2011 1:24 AM BST
well im too busy with work but footy and horses mainly. you still out of work?
Report boardroom September 27, 2011 6:13 PM BST
Only 11 lays today, ive been ultra cautious as the ground has gone soft at present. I have made a decision  not lay on heavy ground and if the stratedgy begins to deviate off the norm during the winter i will close it down till the spring, we shall see.

best of luck to you all

Boardroom
Report bf_fananatic September 27, 2011 6:22 PM BST
Can give you some sound advice, beware of horses that haven't had a run this season on the national hunt as there form may read 445PPP but after a long lay off there form will have changed and 66/1 for this kind of form condition is actually profitable if backed, let them run at least once if they haven't run for 90 days to evaluate there current form.
Report top2rated September 27, 2011 7:19 PM BST
bf_fananatic

"Can give you some sound advice, beware of horses that haven't had a run this season on the national hunt as there form may read 445PPP but after a long lay off there form will have changed and 66/1 for this kind of form condition is actually profitable if backed...."

Do you have any stats to back up this advice?
Report bf_fananatic September 27, 2011 7:43 PM BST
Yeah, via private messaging only, certainly not giving all my secrets away, reply to my message and follow the instructions and I will show you the verified data.
Report top2rated September 27, 2011 8:03 PM BST
Thanks but no thanks.
Report paulme September 27, 2011 8:44 PM BST
wd boardroom
Report undern September 27, 2011 8:52 PM BST
Laugh directed at Paulme.

So Paulme you go around the whole forum asking everyone to post their bets just to prove themselves to you ... yet this OP puts up a post everynight saying ' Layed 12 today, Layed 18 today, Layed 15 today ... ' yet all you can say is "wd boardroom"

Come on Paulme - you harass all those punters on the P&L thread on the football - why aren't you harrasing the OP in this thread LaughLaugh
Report paulme September 27, 2011 8:54 PM BST
go bore your wife undern rather than being a bore on here
Report undern September 27, 2011 8:58 PM BST
just want some consistency with your questioning across all forums, threads and fellow forum users .... is that so much to ask Cool
Report undern September 30, 2011 7:18 AM BST
Any update to this challenge Boardroom ?
Report bf_fananatic September 30, 2011 9:06 AM BST
Boardroom, your posts have stopped, has your system gone tits up mateConfused
Report paulme September 30, 2011 11:13 AM BST
Cry
Report boardroom October 2, 2011 2:07 AM BST
Hi all,

Following a short break with the Mrs u will be delighted to here that there were 20 lays today.

I wish u all a enjoyable weekend.

cheers

Boardroom
Report boardroom October 2, 2011 2:10 AM BST
Current profit from this run now £701 after commission. Getting closer to the average run now so we will see if this continues.

cheers

Boardroom
Report bf_fananatic October 2, 2011 2:29 AM BST
well done mateBlush
Report boardroom October 3, 2011 12:50 AM BST
Well that day finally came and i hit one.

The run lasted 231 lays at a profit after commission of £745. A £225 loss today shows an overall profit of £520.

Following the loser i have layed 15 today which is a pleasing start to the new run.

cheers

Boardroom
Report Eddie the eagle October 3, 2011 7:44 AM BST
boardroom,I added up your lays and came to 257 before the last day with a loser.
  You really should put more effort into this story if you want to become a forum "legend".
Report acornel October 3, 2011 2:05 PM BST
May add few info for the unbelievers?
"Following the loser i have layed 15 today which is a pleasing start to the new run."



What was your loosing bet? I suppose it was Kie that won at Kelso yesterday (the only horse that won having a high BSP). A bit impossible to LAY 15 after the HIT ... there were about 5-6 horses with BSP odds between 50 and 100 yesterday ... in total Devil[:x][:o]
Report greedkillsmybankagain October 3, 2011 2:15 PM BST
Shocked
Report easykc1 October 4, 2011 2:40 AM BST
how do i join this great system
Report Blades October 4, 2011 10:51 AM BST
Boardroom, what was your losing bet? Good luck with the future bets. It is good to read an intelligent thread on this form.
Report TheVis October 4, 2011 5:20 PM BST
Looks like Boardroom has been caught out making this up.
Report paulme October 4, 2011 11:02 PM BST
Cry
Report undern October 8, 2011 3:14 PM BST
Boardroom - are you able to update your thread .....
Report bf_fananatic October 8, 2011 4:01 PM BST
I reckon he has gone into retirement but not likely to be on a sunny beach counting his millions [;)]
Report paulme October 8, 2011 4:07 PM BST
defo not. having a nice wet weekend bff? few beers tonight mate?
Report paulme October 9, 2011 4:46 PM BST
i hope hes not laying today

nope. RIP thread
Report stewarty b October 9, 2011 6:18 PM BST
The best fishing trip ever. 'Sharp minds' LaughLaugh
Report Dave C October 10, 2011 10:59 AM BST
Possibly..? Interesting thread though.. Will he be back to defend the figure fudging accusations? Hope so..
Report paulme October 10, 2011 9:44 PM BST
doubt it Cry
Report Dave C October 10, 2011 11:22 PM BST
Yep, he was on earlier so guess he was just a wind up merchant..
Report no moves October 11, 2011 12:02 AM BST
Honestly, I personally have had 25 successfull lays today,all odds on. what you mean you don't believe me? Now I ask you in all sincerity would anybody lie on the forum? Surely that never happens?
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