General Betting
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I have been working on an edge which looks at laying pre off. I have paper traded the results and from 3000 selected horses over 6 months ( End of March till beginning of September) there have been only 12 that beat me.
The prices have averaged out at 66/1 B.P.
Are there any views as too wether the time has come to move into small stakes or should this be run for 12 months to be completely confident.
TIA for any advice.
The prices have averaged out at 66/1 B.P.
Are there any views as too wether the time has come to move into small stakes or should this be run for 12 months to be completely confident.
TIA for any advice.
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Anyone??
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No idea what "edge" you believe you have re such LAYS at high odds............doubtful if you do .
Most people off the street could probably do as well ......as the odds reflect the chances (perceived) of the horse winning.....SLIM. If you do believe you have an edge....then why not lay em for small stakes.....and as bank grows increase stakes etc etc. GL if you go ahead. |
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thanks.... ill start off slowly.
If there were an edge laying the specific horses i select, would 6 months and the numbers involved be a strong indication of ongoing results. |
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Too many unknowns in your initial post ...........
How many races? Average field size? etc etc etc etc Don't know if there is an "exact" or "correct" answer to your question.....but likely to be over 10,000 bets.... Somebody will know or express opinion though.... |
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The prices have averaged out at 66/1 B.P.
...what is B.P.? |
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betfair s.p...apologies. Clydebank your a clued up guy ,having read some of your previous posts. Whats ure view on the best approach with this angle.?
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My initial thoughts are;
From a bank of £3000 lay each horse to a fixed liability of £200. Nothing bigger than 100 on betfair, no bottom price, if the horse fits my selection criteria it gets layed. |
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My thoughts are forget it and try something else.
Having an amazingly good strike rate is childs play when laying at such collosal prices. Highly unlikely to have an edge based on such a tiny sample size in relation to the odds. I could run up an amazing sequence if I started laying 3-3 draws no doubt, wouldnt mean a thing. |
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Yes, you need a huge sample when average price is very high or very low
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Considering the return the sample is easily big enough imo.
2 things to consider imo... Firstly, have you been fair in reaching those results? i.e. if you looked at past results and just noticed a pattern I'd be cautious. However, if you had the idea beforehand, based on instinct or logic or a combination of both, and then you looked at the results for the following 6 months, and it gave you the results you say that's a huge positive. Secondly, could it be seasonal? If you are happy with both go for it. You should be looking at staking nearer 1/6th than 1/15th of your bank at those odds imo |
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clydebank can you please reveal how it is possible to lay 66/1 selections with 1/6,1/15 or even 1/65 of your account when clearly the bet would be impossible due to the exposure limit of 66/1 stakes to then potentially put 100% of bank at risk?
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He means 1/6 of bank as max liability obviously.
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In answer to the thread when reserching strike rates that are quite low the rate and pattern
of loss /win rates will be wandering at a higher rate per unit set of selection examples , as a rule of thumb to arrive at realistic accuracy levels the data sets will need to be above ; (>) 1000/(1/strike rate or implied chance) = 1000/(1/(66/1)) = 66,000 or a hell of a lot more than 3000 . |
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I see trevh, thanks, clearly the obvious solution if explaned as exposure and not as stakes in the refered post!
You should be looking at staking nearer 1/6th than 1/15th of your bank at those odds imo |
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Boardroom, if you haven't been back-fitting as Clydebank explained I would start with real money right away. You should be losing far more than you have, your stat's suggest the real price of your lays should be around 250.0 so that's a good edge.
Backing between 1.01 and 1.02 as you are and only taking a loss every 250 races is good enough to proceed with real money. |
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You would be ill advised to start laying at a percieved edge based on to small a data set for the small strike rate that is implied by the odds, you have been looking at random page when you need to read the whole book and all its pages to access its true worth/edge!
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Lets put it like this, imagine an apple tree with a large canopy, its the end of the fruit season and the apples are on the ground and pleniful, if you were to throw a hoop upon the fruit chances are you will have quiet a few fruit in every throw and little chance of getting no fruit!
Now imagine the same test only this time its the start of the season and there are only 12 fruit on the ground and the ground area equals 660 hoops, try throwing the hoop a few times and hey presto you have no fruit in the hoop so you percieve there is little friut around, but wait and think How many time will you need to throw the hoop to arrive at a true average and which part of the season did you get your racing data from because just like fruit the runners of races ripen within different areas at different times of the season and the season and seasonal conditions are the biggest factor that affect runners of races on surfaces containg water and animals that are affected by the weather/temperate/going condition within training, wintering of horses , affect of average going on performance types etc etc etc. |
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You have tested the system over the spring and summer when trained horses have matured on the track, in autumn and winter far more outsiders win horse races because of counter-productive conditions to racing and you will find much more than 4 horses winning there races at av bsp 66.0
case closed(till next march[;)]) |
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Personally, I'd be inclined to get on with it accepting that there is a risk of loss. Edges and advantages on here are finite. Market conditions regularly change, you never know what's around the corner. Any edge you can spot can also be spotted by someone else, the longer you wait the more likely it is your edge will have gone.
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I would agree with your statement ICO as its not sitting on your hands that makes you a winner its getting your hands dirty, would advise a safe percent of bank as the stake and keeping fingers crossed.
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The sample is easily large enough.
Modjadji Date Joined: 02 Jan 11 Add contact | Send message When: 10 Sep 11 23:17 Joined: Date Joined: 02 Jan 11 | Topic/replies: 777 | Blogger: Modjadji's blog My thoughts are forget it and try something else. Having an amazingly good strike rate is childs play when laying at such collosal prices. Highly unlikely to have an edge based on such a tiny sample size in relation to the odds. I could run up an amazing sequence if I started laying 3-3 draws no doubt, wouldnt mean a thing. That's incorrect, over 3000 bets laying at 67.00, fair odds would suggest about 45 losers. Having only 12 losers is extremely unlikely to occur randomly. Similarly, if you layed 3-3 3000 times for £2 at avg odds of 100, and you lost only ten times, that would be statistically significant. Start using some real money and see how you go. Paper trading results aren't worth much. |
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Thanks for all the great advice. I am going to start laying these today as im convinced ive found an edge despite the potential pitfalls.
In answer to Clydebank, i did not back fit any data etc. The concept was something i had been considering for a while. I came up with the concept and added a number of criteria that had to fit in order for a horse to be selected. I am a tad concerned that this may be seasonal (thus waiting for a full 12 months to pass) but there have been varying ground conditions, during the spring, summer months, but not the extremes you may find in the Autmn/Winter. The losers have hit on Firm, G/F, Good, Good/Soft. This makes me slightly more confident about the forthcoming winter period. We will see. Bf fanatic i also agree with your hypothesis re not a big enough sample size. Thus my initial question re amount of bets. But i might as well give this a go and see what comes of it. It may well be seasonal so i will not give up on this if it fails in the winter. 1/6th of the bank is a little concerning so i will go for 1/10th... incase the winter period throws up some curvbe balls. I will keep in touch re this progress of this idea. Once again many thank for your informative replys. |
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I actually think your sample size might be ok in retrospect but would be concerned about the weather so avoid really muddy conditions or freezing weather and the best of luck.
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The market tends to incorporate such conditions in the odds .....I would have thought.
I suggest that certain race types are more likely to produce high odds winners.........So I suggest you check what race types did your 12 winners run in.... I know where very high odds SFCS can come from .....but if I told you .......I'd have to xxxx you   .........You will have to do own research on that! |
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Good start today... only 11 winning lays but the only way is up.
cheers |
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let's see how often you post when you lay a winner at those odds
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I've laid at 1,000 and lost (Scandinavian football match where the favourites were winning 3-0 and conceded 3 goals in injury time). If you've got a fairly big edge, you don't need to worry about the occasional loss, even if it is huge.
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^^ wow that would get me to give gambling up totally. boardroom/poster, u said 12 out of 3000 beat u over 6 months on average 65.0 odds so are u saying u layed 3000 horses and only 12 beat u over 6 months? that's around 17 lays a day. Fair enough if u sat there laying 17 horses a day for over 6 months(no bot you would have to sit around 4+ hours a day) and this was all for paper trading/NOTHING??
you get my point |
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Another 15 lays today despite Mussleburgh being off and a few opportunities passing me by.
Pleasing start. Yazza, i see your point about not doing anything for 6 months other than watching but i wanted to be confident before risking real money at those odds. |
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boardroom, are you analysing form, or using another method to arrive at the correct odds?
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Hes using the method that is well known as a killer in the betting world, reading tea leaves, a local council estate uses the same method, and they all drive rolls canardalys now.
They roll down hill and canardly get up them [;)] |
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In response too bf fanatic, lol. I like the response.
Investor, my selections are made based around a number of different factors. Without giving too much away, specific race types, trainer form etc are taken into account. There is one overiding factor which allows the selection to be made but that would be giving it away. It is my view that others are already using this approach in one form or another, as i watch the prices of the horses i lay closely. I am confident im not the only one! |
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Well I did get the impression he was underestimating you and its obvious your not using tea leaves, good luck mate.
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boardroom, one other thing to keep in mind with this is that you are likely to have loads of winning weeks and a very small number of losing weeks, so you will be an ideal candidate for BF to creaming the PC off.
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Yeah that's true TheVis (if he is betting large enough to pay PC). It won't matter too much though, as his edge is so big (if his paper trading results are replicated in the real world).
I know of at least one strategy that makes a 12-18% return on bank per annum, laying 15000 shots at 1000. Hardly worth it for a PC2 payer, I used to make the equivalent of about 40% on this when I had spare capital available, but now the margin has been driven down to the point where I don't bother. ^ Let's see if someone knows what I'm referring to. I've mentioned it before [;)] |
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Good Afternoon,
Another bountiful day with 16 lays and no scares, despite the god awful conditions. It is slightly more exciting doing this for real money. Im being careful not too get carried away and being rigid with my rules. cheers Boardroom. |
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the 1000/1 shots is like blackburn to win the league, bets like that?
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is it in the corners market investor?
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Yeah, that's the one Francis.
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