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Any filter, be it football or horses has to have logic, without
logic it probably comes from back fitting, and will fail. The logic also needs to be something no one else has noticed, as common knowledge is useless for obvious reasons, and is the diff between the 85% and the 15%. Sorry for being pedantic (or perdandic as some one labelled me!) |
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regarding the subject of this thread laying favorites well there is some virtue to this and the reason for it is as plain as the nose on your face.
The common betting model of bookmakers laying favorites is tailor made to profit from favorites for one simple reason, the majority of money is bet on the first 3 favorites. The problem with laying all favorites is that in more open races where there is no strong fancy then market forces will level out a favorite where more of the smart money is going so some races it will be unprofitable laying the favorite. I have mentioned how one can profit from laying favourites in another thread and its cast iron. Heres how it works 1.....buy a paper or racing post or look on-line for the top say dozen strong fancies of the day. 2.....Make sure the fancies are in top races, open looking races, and that they look to your glancing eye rather on the skinny side pricewise, chances are they will be as this runners will be targeted by the main high street bookmakers and will be backed heavily by the masses in the bookmakers. 3.....decide a maximum price in your view that you lay it at, also try to get a feel for what the realistic price is for that runner and to win that race based on some research 4.....when the markets open for these runners the bookmakers will flag as they already expect that punters are placing this runner in a lot of the multiple bets and will send office money down to trackside to hammer the sp price. 5.....try to lay the runner as late as possible if the price seems to be going down And there you have it, by targeting the same runners as the bookmaker you will be laying at small prices with much less risk and probably the hardest races will be involved, the more money is on the highlighted runner then the closer to sp the price will be. Its worked for bookmakers for many years and it can work for you, also these markets it may well be worth backing a runner as the prices will be better for the rest of the market. |
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There are no 'click and win' systems on betfair.
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Proven wrong.
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When ?
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Many times in this thread by others who went to the trouble of checking.
It's all in the Betfair data, proveable. |
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Beat, Why don't you add US Racing?
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BTO
Was your reply of 'Proven wrong' to SHAPESHIFTER or bf_fananatic? I'm hoping it was to SHAPESHIFTER Thx |
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Have I mentioned that ITCANTBEDONE?
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yes
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Shapeshifter.
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Shapeshifter.
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Some years ago I did some work which seemed to come to the opposite conclusion to bf fanatic. It seemed to me that the strongly fancied horses drifted more often than not and were good value when they did. I had a plan that I would lay them earlier on and if they drifted then back them for the same stake and get a small free bet, and if they did not drift then run the bet and take the risk.
It was a long time ago and at the time made a little money. |
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ttt ....Might be of interest to recent thread started....
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phil has a good point laying favs on heavy ground 6.2 per cent profit
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