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http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/horse-racing/010511/Hamilton_Park-GB-Ham/1505
Profit on race $21.67 $21.67 * 0.95 so $20.59 profit. Commission equals $1.08 |
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Beat, why are you trying to prove to everybody that your system works? Why would you ever give away this information? It seems to work well on individual races, so I can't see why it wouldn't work in the other ways that you suggest, and I suspect your figures are well worked. I am a little mystified as to why you want everybody to know about it though?
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Lord Bobbin,
I'm just trying to help, there's plenty in the pot for everyone. Should this change, there are other strategies I use in conjunction which are run alongside, so even if every man and his dog do it, it won't really cost me. |
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Beat The OverRound,
Same results for me for the two races. |
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CM,
Be very careful using the AUS SP data provided, before the 1st of June this year they also had non runners in the data and the prices are quite often wrong. Also there are extra bets in there such as winning jockey, beaten lengths, etc etc etc. |
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That's very commendable Beat The OverRound. The forum needs more people like you!
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Let's extend our test: all races from 2011-08-01 until 2011-08-31
My result: Races: 1246 Total P/L: -263.205068 euros |
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BTO
I actually backed or laid every one of those 3112 runners, I take a snapshot with snip of each race results so I know exactly what the BSP was, which is not the same as BSP published prices. Some BSP may be published at say 23.10 but their calculation for my lay might be 23.13 |
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CM are these just Melbourne metro?
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Yes
I use gruss to update prices only, at the 4 minute mark I turn off updating, compare the prices at that point to my prices all prices more than mine I back bet, all prices equal to or less than my price I lay. Only exceptions to the rule is I back all odds on and lay all over 50.00. The 4 minutes gives me time to place all bets with liabilities and back stake according to chance of each horse either winning the lay or winning the back bet. |
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Could this same principle work on greyhounds?
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acornel,
Yes we are almost the same for august, I did all runners, not those under $10.00, so August was a slight loss for UK. Under $10.00 was better. |
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Now, from the beginning of the year:
Races: 8952 Total P/L: -1763.010728 euros |
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Doesn't work on greyhounds, no liquidity means you are driving the price up.
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Your system doesn't work for all runners (horses) for the same reason (no liquidity on higher odds) + minimum stake
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Your 0.98c @ 1000/1 isn't going to affect the $2,000 waiting to be matched in any way.
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Why would you lay all favourites when clearly some favourites are over-priced at some under, its using skill and race reading that makes the difference, looking at all data group as a whole will make no edge as markets are generally very accurate.
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The same reason a bookie lays the field rather than just the favourite on his board.
The market overround is more often over 100% than under betting SP. Simple as that, that's where the edge is. |
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acornel, I've been right through my SP data, and noticed a couple of problems with some deadheaters which may have skewed my data a bit, but the end result is close.
I have 8991 races for the year so far. Laying all at SP to $100 liability the profit before commission is $7,694.28 There is $98,785.18 commissionable on races where there was a profit. Assuming 5% commission - $98,785.18 * 0.05 = $4,939.26 commission payable. $7,694.28 - $4,939.26 = $2,755.02 profit per $100 liability for the year so far. I have to rejig my data all the time to split my UK and AUS stuff and rework commission, but that's my final account laying all horses in the field UK and IRE only. Even a 1% commission reduction means close to an extra $1000 profit per $100 liability. Then of course, there's the extra bonus of going to less than $10.00. |
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Now, from the beginning of the year:
Races: 8952 Total P/L: -1763.010728 euros BTOR, do you obtain the same thing? |
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As we have the same figures for August, could you please send me the Total P/L month by month so that we could identify where the gap is?
Let's take only the odds |
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Someone's got it wrong here, BUT WHICH ONE??????
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let's take only the odds < or equal to 10
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Ah I did less than 10.00
Man I haven't worked this hard since 1987 [:o] I'll post back month by month less than 10.00 before commission to see if we can pinpoint from there. Hold a while I have to recode..... |
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What tool / language are you using for coding?
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Here are my results
races month Total P/L (5% comm) 815 1 482.67 736 2 -932.51 876 3 3658.86 1107 4 -648.80 1332 5 -3408.67 1206 6 360.24 1277 7 445.54 1246 8 -263.20 |
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Excel VBA, but I have to query my database and recreate commission and delete my "other" bets at SP and filter out my AUS bets as well.
Anyhow... Jan 2011 $1,645.68 profit Feb 2011 $ 240.72 loss Mar 2011 $6,007.60 profit Apr 2011 $ 756.16 profit May 2011 $1,162.52 loss Jun 2011 $ 948.40 profit Jul 2011 $2,794.79 profit Aug 2011 $1,367.00 profit Sep 2011 $ 205.49 loss (to yesterday) Total Profit before commission $11,910.89 |
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Please post the figures comm included ...
For august August you said the net P/L is same as mine, right? ( ~ -250 euros) |
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That was for all runners not those under 10.00
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Ok let me have another bash
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It's important to accurately calculate the commission ... 1% difference in comm has a BIG impact in total P/L.
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Jan $ 459.23 profit
Feb $1,206.81 loss Mar $4,717.52 profit Apr $ 658.71 loss May $2,849.70 loss Jun $ 616.53 loss Jul $1,103.29 profit Aug $ 165.72 loss Sep $ 550.48 loss Total $232.09 |
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I calculated commission correctly at the full 5%.
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As you can see one is far better off laying the field if on the full 5% commission, you can only lay those under 10.00 if on a much reduced rate. Part of my changing to below 10.00 was to reduce premium charges, but of course you pay more commission.
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$232 for 9 months work eh!
Not quite the amounts previously referred to, or am I again confused? |
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However if they are to $10 stakes, using $1000 might make it slightly more appetising.
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Slicer,
laying the field at SP to only $100 liability and allowing for full 5% commission is like this... $2,755.02 profit per $100 liability for the year so far. $1,000 liability is $27,550.20 profit if you're paying 5% commission. |
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Point of interest even $10,000 liability is only $10 stake on 1000/1 runner.
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I would NOT lay the whole field if I was to do this, I would only lay those priced less than 10.
ARE YOU REALLY SURE YOUR FIGURES ARE CORRECT????? Really cannot see it myself, but then I am very old now, worn out, with mashed potatoes for brains! |
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Month UK & Ireland
1 547.36 2 -1,068.54 3 4,717.53 4 -383.65 5 -2,292.92 6 -420.08 7 1,273.29 8 16.41 9 -550.48 Total 1,838.92 I did the calculations for UK and Ireland and get monthly figures that are not exactly the same as BTOR but highly correlated. Although 2011 has been profitable so far it's not difficult to imagine a bad month wiping that out. I drew a graph of the daily bank (assuming start with $100 and take $1 liability laying everything) and it looks pretty much like a random walk to me, apart from a recent positive trend in Ireland. I tried to insert the graphs but the moderator has to approve the picture before I can post it. In the spirit of openness that BTOR shared the strategy I will post the VBA code I used to produce these results. |