General Betting
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To All people who think Pc is a good thing
To All people who think Pc is a good thing
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Replies: 176
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Johnny The Gesser is very strange post. Board want big salary for them, now. That why big price put in now, and thing which peoples cannot work out with money calculations like staff morale getting much lower is acceptabel to board. Why so many manager leave Betfair, why so many unhappy. Board are not owner of Betfair. Board make different decision than right ones sometimes because this.
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Liquidity has been woefully down on UK races in the past week. Not a good sign and obviously has something to do with PC2.
Now, the other side of the coin is if more of the top earners leave here, the markets will be un-backable and odds would be much lower than that of bookies. Mugs don't put on big bets, so Betfair will have little to offer them. So therefore if the big guys go, mugs won't be far behind and the beginning of the end would then be clearly visible. |
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Crap...it's holiday time...
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in Poker...it's the winners who start up a empty tables...In many ways , betfair is the same as a poker room
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Bob, that's what was being said just after pc1. I am one of the 480 and I've had quite a good winning run since 18th July - no chance of me moving anytime soon.
Nairda, pc2 didn't increase the charges from 5% to 60% but in anycase yes, to implement a minimum threshold for commission paid is quite a small change. |
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And i didn't actually say it was a small change in the first place [:p]
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Thanks, catfleppo.
Of course, the other thing could be that the top 500 (or so) who pay the PC2 charge could increase their stakes and earnings just to get to the same level of profits they were making before the charge - therefore not really solving anything that Betfair had originally hoped for. Either way, it will be interesting to see how things go in the next 6 months. |
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Surely that would be good for betfair?
I agree it will be interesting to see how things develop. |
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What is already happening..(speaking as a track player) is that the behemoths are playing harder than ever..
After all if you have been making £1 million + a year on 20% PC... then for a good lifestyle, why stop when this reduces to c 600k on say 50%? Box costs (eg 50k per annum)are less of a factor to these players... So what happens... the smaller stake steadier players are driven out.... In the short term ...more comm. for Betfair... longer term... 200 of the 500 affected players are driven out..the ones in fact Betfair would be better off keeping.. Liquidity then drops.. so a short term lift for Betfair in next month... then the share decline continues... |
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Glasgow Rangers was just liberated from the Champions League-stress. They lost and they are out. How many in the pc2club
will start losing? How many will be out? Don´t get stressed. I have a little bit of a contrarian view on this issue. I think the pc2 or something like it is inevitable because there is too much inequality in the system. The gap between the really successful and the not so is too big, which leads to too many players drain the system for too much money in a too short period of time. I have seen a few signs that the system (Betfair) is declining and that the system itself may be under threat. Believe it or not, I am a pc2er and personally I rather try to adapt to a new, higher tax-environment, than see the whole system at risk. Anyone with a strategy good enough to win £250K should be good enough to adapt to a new environment. Environments change constantly. Who knows, some day online-betting should be legal in the USA. How could you not thrive in such an environment? Don't stress. |
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That theory has an awful lot of holes in it.
A terribly socialist point of view. Penalising ability is not a good look. If BF are not supertaxing the big winners to reinvest the monies raised to attract new bettors ( as they seem to say they are doing, but a lot on here reasonably question), then the whole PC exercise is not only pointless but inevitably self defeating. That is you can't raise up the poor by bringing down the rich. If however you really mean there is currently inequality in the exchange due to certain cheating going on, then to eradicate this the PC is also certainly not the answer. In summary if the PC is not about reinvestment in the exchange by BF, then it is wrong and will fail. |
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You guys don't understand....you think, if you're winning $1 million a year, and now playing PC, that the PC player should bet more money to win the same million next year.....this is how you go broke
Look, it's like this, lets say I have a betting bank of $100,000..and I believe Team A is 60% chance to win, and Team A is odds of 2.00 on betfair...if im betting to a bank of 100k ..this is what the odds become for me at each level of PC, and how much i should be No PC commis 2.5% 1.975 bet $18,974 20% PC plus 2.5% commis 1.933 bet $17,127 40% PC plus 2.5 commis 1.866 bet $13,810 Now...why the f-ck do you think the PC guys will bet more money now...if wanted to back Team A at **** for 1.98 (less 2.00 on betfair) and on 2.5% commin there 1.955 bet $18,115 Big different in prices/odds |
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amd guess what...if I offer 1.96 on betduck...and it's 2.00 on betfair...my bet will be ab between betfair and betduck.. and I will still end up with the money, and the money will still leave betfair, but this time, the money will end up in a betduck account
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Nairda
If they want to win the same amount of money ex PC they just increase their betting bank don't they, if the mkt. is scalable that is ?. |
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Atc your postulating a whole load of conditions that don't really exist and a prediction that is wildly speculative to justify salting a charge that you have no real idea of its business logic and discard the fact that betfair still offers the largest profits available in any betting company worldwide in consistency, does your brain offer you more hope if you walked back into the sea and make like a fish as your back pedaling the evolutionary advantages of human intelligence, gulp , gulp
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Bet you the first fish that gets fried in the duckpond ATC
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Bff
If you GR neurons are as good as your imagery neurons then you're onto a winner that's for sure. |
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Well, FAFH, it was not my meaning to post a socialist theory! But I can see your point and I can appreciate if you are not happy with the latest developments. Me neither. But the issue of cheating I have not even thought about.
Maybe it will all go to hell with Betfair, but my keypoint was that they obviously found the amount of money, drained from the system by successful players, was on an unsustainable level. I really hope its not just about squeezing out as much profit as possible or , even worse, trying to get rid of successful players. I agree you can't help the poor by joining them in poverty. The key word in too-much-inequality is "too". Not necessarily from my point of view, but from Betfairs as it obviously cost them so much that they take this big step. To be honest, read my post as self-peptalk and peptalk on taking on the new environment. I personally have learnt a few lifelessons the hard way. This sh-t I can't do anything about but adapt to in the best possible way= adjust and keep on working. |
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Nairda
If they want to win the same amount of money ex PC they just increase their betting bank don't they, if the mkt. is scalable that is ?. you're much smarter then that FAFH |
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Tks for the compliment nairda, but I'm not on this particular point that's for sure.
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Bleeding Swede
Maybe Winston Churchill might have said " Never have so few taken so much from so many " ? But your point about just getting on with things is well taken by me. |
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Well considering there is much less likely-hood of becoming a 250,000 bracket earner on a site that has 8% liquidity of betfair, would any intelligent big punter really relish the duckpond with any fiscal appetite, nope, but a consistent loser will get no better deal at the duckpond, perhaps the persons that make a bit now and then and don't grow there revenues and business like betfair will appreciate a firm that does exactly the same in performance like duckpond, happy days
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because FAFH...PC punter, is now getting less money per $1 in risk, as such, PC punter should risk less money from he betting bank on each bet
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I get that nairda, but we're talking about big punters who seem to be able to win at any reasonable odds, not just value ones.
That is they're not that risk/reward sensitive and would willingly bet larger amounts if and when they can ( not at ridiculously stupid odds htat is of course). I don't mean your type of gambler who is making finely calibrated pre-off position bets/lays, but the IR high volume momentum type ones. |
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What is the forum used like, sesame streets urban business arts club, for under achievers, yeah splash a bit of resentment with a little duck following a big swan, a choppy water and the swan dives and the duck floats, come and play
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or has BFF got it all wrong again
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they are still making less money per $1 risk..and no one has end less banks...
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How can a school of thought survive with to many teachers and not enough pupils, its staff room coffee break chaos in here, no-one willing to agree or learn and teachers at 10 paces!
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Is it just me or does anybody else not understand a word of what this chap is saying?
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may be its the "thought of school" that torments more than the "school of thought" that pleases but hey
you have to be in something to gain something and if winning the biggest profits possible isn't for you then fluncking out may be an option and I should know, best truant in my class 2 years running lol  |
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Jimmy get to the back of the class
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i block him
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nairda
Date Joined: 05 Jan 07 Add contact | Send message When: 03 Aug 11 22:16 Joined: Date Joined: 05 Jan 07 | Topic/replies: 789 | Blogger: nairda's blog they are still making less money per $1 risk..and no one has end less banks... The thing is that someone that places £10k bets and needs a big margin due to PC, can place lots of £100 bets with virtually zero margin, as this will increase overall profitability. That will be too much of a hassle for many though. |
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nairda is head of building blocks, lol
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I'm loathe to block people...I've got to get my laughs from somewhere
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You can make a profit with 1% margin mate and still take something home after pc, its all relative, its not a jigsaw with "i want 100% of my profits" as the missing piece, god its like a nursery in here
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its all good fun, if you take me seriously then thats something I never do so why should you, I love you all really
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I hope all the exchanges do well, its the bookies I hate, never used them since they openly coned me out of £800 3 months ago, never bet in them again,they admitted I placed a bet on a dog that won and that I told them it was for a dog race, the cashier made a note on the computer till as there was a horse race on at same time. but when it came to getting paid, "we don't have to pay you as the rules on the wall says so" , I got my stake money back, worse betting day of my life, thats 100% premium charge, betfair always pay a winner, ok if your making millions you will pay more in charges but
At least there honest |
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In corals I backed a 4/1 shot trap 5 with 100 quid, it went out to 8/1, thats were it all went wrong,bookies don't like to make a loss on the week or day and I made the mistake of using the same bookie 5 times in a row and winning, betfair is fair at least they pay you out, corals have told me I cant place large bets,100 quid isnt large, head office said they are monitoring all my bets, I gave up on corals and all bookies, they don't like winners!
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a scandinavian arguing in favour of higher marginal tax rates for high earners.
whatever next?  |