General Betting
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I trade and arb (boo hiss, yes I know) for my bread and butter profits; but I'm a punter at heart! So, I have set aside a starting bank of £10k of my hard earned to give the punter within a chance to express himself a little. The bets will be selective, but there will be something most days.
There are a few decent opportunities in the next 24 hours, so hopefully we can end the weekend with a nice profit and get the thread off to a good start.
Just as a bit of background - I'm profitable with my 'day job', trading (mainly on medium to long term markets) but I have long believed that I can make it pay just sports punting. So here goes!
First bet is in the NRL - the Bulldogs are a confident pick to beat the Panthers by 8+.
1. Bulldogs outright at 1.62 for 800 and
2. Bulldogs (-4.5) at 1.94 for 700.
There are a few decent opportunities in the next 24 hours, so hopefully we can end the weekend with a nice profit and get the thread off to a good start.
Just as a bit of background - I'm profitable with my 'day job', trading (mainly on medium to long term markets) but I have long believed that I can make it pay just sports punting. So here goes!
First bet is in the NRL - the Bulldogs are a confident pick to beat the Panthers by 8+.
1. Bulldogs outright at 1.62 for 800 and
2. Bulldogs (-4.5) at 1.94 for 700.
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Poor first half from the Bulldogs, 12-0 down. Unlucky to be 12 down but definitely need to up their game in the second half. A Bulldogs comeback is likely though in my view, so I have availed myself of the 9/2 on offer at Bet365 for £300.
1st score in this 2nd half is crucial! Total Bank at the moment is £8,300. |
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Surely you are a bf plant.
You make money on yr 'day job' trading long-term markets and yr immediate concern is to start some **** challenge i.e. w/ something other than the new pc? Good specials and long-run events players doing it full-time are paying much less than the 20% pc threshold basic. If they've won more than 250k (perhaps unlikely given how few events they have) they are about to give 65% of it back. Yet yr language is all 'boo hiss' and 'bread and butter punting'? |
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*some dumb challenge (nearly the word I used)
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If you were watching the first 15 minutes of the match and the price fluctuations you would have traded out as Bulldogs did not nor do they look like scoring, This challenge is down $1700. You could have got out on $1.55 after 15 minutes of clear lack of attack or creativity by canterbury. They've got nothing and had nothing all season.
Penrith on the other hand are always capable of an "upset" especially at home on a Saturday night??? |
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Askari - you're making a number of assumptions there my friend. Do I operate on Betfair alone? No. Do I operate on Betfair predominantly? No. I have little interest in the PC as it isn't relevant to me, but I do think it is ill conceived (so much for being a BF plant). Why you feel the need to bring up the PC is beyond me. "Some dumb challenge"? You got out of the wong side of the bed this morning? If thats your view, then move along. Its a bit of fun, that could get interesting after an admittedly appalling start. Let's see though eh?
GC - no trading on these bets, certainly not with relatively low amounts - I may break this rule if the amounts get larger :-) Bet 4 - Kvitova to win, £1k @ 2.58 Current Bank is £7300 |
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Do you operate on BF alone?? no, you state??
But you joined today?????? you maytrade if you bet larger?? what 15% of your bank is not large enough?? I give you credit for having a sense of humour, cause I am in stitches. |
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I joined today did I? I had a Betfair account before you'd even heard of the site.....
And it's definitely true to say that this forum has gone downhill dramatically since those days. You two are good examples of the types that inhabit this place now. Thanks for the credit you give me, I give you none in return - you've fallen into the same elementary mistakes as askari. And yes, it can be a much larger bet at the same % dependent upon the size of the bank in question. You really are being a bit foolish aren't you. Anyways......Kvitova to start strongly, build an early lead and hold on.....just. No trading out here though. Fingers crossed. |
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MrBiswas
Joined Betfair: 02 Jul 11 My blog maybe I have been involved with Doc and Marty and gone back to the future??? |
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I know you Aussies are not renowned for your intelligence (great drinking buddies though [;)] ), but do I really need to talk you through this?
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So what to do now??
Sharapova will lose the first set and be paying about $2.70?? Do you have $1000 on her at that price, giving you green of about $600 regardless of the outcome??? I think the occassion might get to this Kvitova chick when it really matters??? If I were a betting man I'd be laying Kvitova now at $1.57 to recoup some of the footy loss??? But thats just me. |
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Kvitova is home and hosed now??? you would have to think???
But I'd have traded out cause in sport anything can happen?? |
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Sharapova will lose the first set and be paying about $2.70??
Really? Market reading isn't your strong suit.... Trading out is not in the spirit of this thread, although if/when the amounts involved are greater I may well take a more pragmatic view. |
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Net profit £1501, so running total of £9801.
A few bets to come on the UFC tonight, if anyone has any opinions to offer on what should be a good card tonight, I would love to hear them? I'm a big fan of Cruz and can see him outpointing Faber tonight. Silva is on my 'to get' list and so will be opposing him - as long as Leben has prepared properly he will win by stoppage. Bader will be way too much for Tito, just not a great price. Just can't bring myself to put anything decent on the boxing, will just enjoy it with a beer I think. |
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One for the Aussies on the card, Sotiropoulos is decent value at around 1.5 to beat Dos Anjos.....and perhaps a few quid on the Stun Gun to beat Condit.
I'll post the exact bets before the event later. |
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Gold Coast you seen my reply to you on the other thread yet?
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No Paulme what reply was that?? Though I did see one where you suggested I visit your horse tippiong thread as you stated I was "aftertiming" is that what you call posting tips after the race??
If so your wrong, very wrong I post all my tips 2-3 mins before the race starts. Just wonder over to the aussie forum wait for a raceday thread to start and ask if I post my lays before during or after the race, the 20 or so regulars over there will confirm they are all posted before the race, oh and ask them what my success rate is too, they'll too confirm that my lay system has about an 85-90% success rate and the price of my lays are always under $5. Mrbiswas, well done on holding out on the tennis, I prefer a bird in the hand to two in the bush and you gotta admit womans tennis hardly goes to script??? look at the losers this years,top 15 woman all lost Kvitova could have easily choked?? |
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I disagree GC. I had a fair few quid tied up with lays on both Williams sisters and also on Wozniacki - all 3 were way too short in a very open competition this year.
UFC shortly....... |
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Kim to beat Condit - £1000 @ 1.9
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Running total £8801
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Bader to smash Tito into retirement by stoppage 2000 @ 1.90
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Sorry, not 1.9 its 3.0.......been a long day :-)
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£6801
Leben to beat Silva 1800 @ 2.9 |
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Can't string anything together today, but Leben winning so back to square one.....
Total Bank = £10,050. |
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pm'd you gold coast
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£1000 on Roosters at aggregated 5.6 midway through the first half whilst 12 down.
Raiders are there for the taking if the Roosters can get their act together. Bank is £9,050. |
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All the breaks are going to Raiders, lets hope this starts to even out......still happy with the bet at this stage despite being 10 down.
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Drops the ball going over the line! Unbelievable......
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Bombed near the line again. Highly frustrating.
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roosters have only won 3 games all year they are useless home or away they are one of 4 teams you should never back this year.
Gold Coast Souths Easts Canterbury |
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Raiders are awful too.
I didnt punt pre game, as I agree Roosters are not to be trusted to perform this year. I do think they were a decent value punt at near 5/1 whilst still in the game before half time.....against a poor team....and not having had any rub of the green. Lets put it another way, I def wouldnt have been backing Raiders at 1/5 at the same stage, terrible value.....so Roosters where at worst reasonable value to get back into the match. Which they did, albeit briefly, and there was a good trade out at nearly half the price I backed them at. |
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Next wager is on the State of Origin decider.
I have been on the right side of the result in the opening two games, and despite the fact that I cannot see the Maroons running away with it, I just don't see anything other than a Lockyer inspired win for the Queenslanders. First choice back division, bigger pack (need to dominate the mobile Blues pack as they did in the first game) and a better half back pairing. Plus, theyre at home.....and perhaps as important as any of this, its Lockyer's final Origin game. Tight, pulsating and dramatic.....I'm really looking forward to this one tomorrow! £2,500 on Queensland at 1.62, which leaves the bank at £6,550 pending this result. |
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Gold Coast - let's have your input before the game this time please.
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Just realised I didnt post my bet for the Cruz/Faber fight. Profit on it was £1,850......
Running total is therefore £8,400 pending the Origin result. |
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£100K will be made - and you will see only 40% of it.
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Why's that?
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24-0 to Q'land at 38 mins....
24-10 at half time. Should still win comfortably, but this has reminded me why I trade out normally. 1.02 traded quite heavily before NSW score 2 late tries. |
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Q'land just too much for them, great series though. Shame about the injury to Thurston, looks a bad one.
£1475 profit. Bank is £12,375 +2,375. |
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judging by the post count he's obviously new here (although not to the world of gambling im sure! ;) ) so premium charge will not apply yet.
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your staking....from a hundreds to thousands.....
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