General Betting
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For the first time in years I'm seriously considering giving up this business entirely.
I'll be on 40%, and I will probably still be able to function reasonably well if I devote some time to developing some 'churning' bots to help keep commission levels up. But I fear for what Betfair will spring on us next. It has only been 2 and a half years or so since the PC was originally introduced, and already they have dramatically increased the level of the charge.
One of the massive advantages of being a pro gambler is the feeling of independence of authority, and the sense that one has control of one's destiny. These latest moves by Betfair thoroughly undermine that sense, and force us to suspend any faith we might have had that this company will continue to offer us a genuine exchange for our betting.
I'll be on 40%, and I will probably still be able to function reasonably well if I devote some time to developing some 'churning' bots to help keep commission levels up. But I fear for what Betfair will spring on us next. It has only been 2 and a half years or so since the PC was originally introduced, and already they have dramatically increased the level of the charge.
One of the massive advantages of being a pro gambler is the feeling of independence of authority, and the sense that one has control of one's destiny. These latest moves by Betfair thoroughly undermine that sense, and force us to suspend any faith we might have had that this company will continue to offer us a genuine exchange for our betting.
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It shouldn't be a 'Business'. If you want to run a betting business, you should become a bookie.
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I'd say just cross bridges as and when you come to them.
It's what you've always done successfully in the past isn't it ? If you ever really felt gambling for a living was a "sure" thing, then you really are one of the chosen few. |
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that's the nub of it contrarian. it won't affect me directly, but it's what it signifies for the future that's the issue. you just can't confidently make plans, because what will they do next? they have the power of a de facto monopoly and until/unless that changes there's not really anything you'd put past them.
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Then plan for the worst but hope for the best.
Btw do you really sincerely think that BF wants to put " winners" completely out of business by making it absolutely impossible for them to win any reasonable amounts ? I do think there is a certain " greed " factor underlying a large number of posters' agendas on here. At least , BF is "claiming " that they need more from the big winners to fund their operations. What are the really big winners claiming they need more than 40% of their gross profits for ? To fund their luxury lifestyles. Now I know that the PC is also hitting many of those with modest winnings and lifestyles, and that is where I do come down to a large extent on the side of the protesters on here. But the likes on contrarian, mr celebrity, et al. I don't think so. Nothing personal really. They really must have plenty of slack to play wiyh. |
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the on course boys playing late , the traders, the courtsiders, they will still get money, just less
the punters, yes punters, what this place was meant for will now be set an impossible task |
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i will take 90% of my money out of betfair ..and bet only at pinnacle and try to get matched at b@tdaq...
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Maybe the majority of ordinary punters may in fact get a better deal now.
I think that perhaps that is really what BF is clumsily trying to do with this " super tax" on big winners. These big winners will now be forced to implement some low profit high churn strategies to increase their " total charges" to GP ratio, or else simply have a slug taken out of their bottom line by BF. y forcing them to implement more low profit churn type stratregies, this should help the ordinary punters who are trying to get ahead just a little bit, if nothing more ambitious. If the big boys are allowed simply to continue to employ high profit, low risk type strategies and bleed the whole pot dry ( some are apparently doing it at an alarmingly high monthly/daily rate), then where will all the future money come from to fund this situation ad nauseam.? Unless you think there is an endless supply of losing punters with bottomless pockets ? |
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1) Post bets simultaneously here and on Purple (more advanced setup required).
2) Possibly create churning bots, however this is a risk in itself (if fail to break even) so probably a case of taking PC charge on the chin? More thought/analysis required. 3) Look to diversify into more markets. 4) Possibility of selling software/tips service to make money for < 250k customers. Obviously the payoff would have to be higher than potential profit minus new PC say per year - seems an unlikely option but not dismissed yet! Also this would require paying real tax so another negative. 5) Never quit, only quit once it is no longer profitable to do so or the return is less than I would get paid in my previous job. 6) Continue to save as much as possible ready to invest in a "real" business in case BF do finally decided to get rid of us all. 7) Plan B... many other ideas I haven't thought of yet... Betfair will likely move the goal posts again and it is quite a concern not knowing their "real" plans. It is also a concern what will happen to the markets once other players such as traders give in/forced out - this could lead to more/less value bets? Who knows - scary times ahead. We all will have to hope it falls in favour of our own style of betting! |
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It's all about "me" it would unfortunately seem.
The general good of the ordinary punter is getting lost in all the debate. Very unfortunate. |
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FAFH - "me" = betfair right?
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Nope.
Look the whole essence of the exchange principle is that it has to be self-sustaining. If you have a small group of big winners taking inordinate amounts of money out of the system , and not giving the ordinary punter the slighest chance of ever coming out ahead, then it has to break eventually. Unless there is a bottomless pit of dumb, uneducated, clueless gamblersnot there. BF has given these big winners pretty much free rein up until a year or so ago, and they have simply taken more and more advantage of the situation. They have not acted responsibly in the sense of reining in their greed, they have simply exponentially increased their operations and profits, without any concern as to the overall health of the exchange community. Ring a bell ? Think Wall St and investment bankers and huge bonuses based on short term profits etc. It's the same selfish, greed factor coming through. BF is now trying to give these players an option. Start acting more responsibly in the gedneral interests of the overall betting community, that is start churning at low margins more, or we will tax you into submission and reluctantly force you into the type of roles you should be playing. If the exchange concept goes out of business due to a lack of ordinary punters able or willing to continue subsidising the " big" winners' enormous, inequitable profits ( almost obscene in some apparent cases, considering they effectively are generated from an activity that contributes nothing to society in real terms), then nobody gains. The big winners will have no source of punters to fleece, and the recreational punters will have no option to "giving" their monies to the HS bookies for their bit of harmless fun. There will always be net winners and net losers on BF, it just the margin of difference between the two that needs to be more balanced. The debate should be about whether the PC achieves this rebalncing fairly and equitably. It shouldn't be about the basic principle of whether or not the big winners should or should not be able to decimate the system without any self control, or responsibility to others who give them the pot to decimate in the first place. |
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" -- clueless gamblers out there "
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This PC stuff has been blown way out of proportion.
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Absolutely in principle at least.
There are however some very genuine gripes about its basic operational fairness. They should be addressed by BF. |
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Somebody needs to copy some of FAFH posts from just a few months ago and compare them to now.
What a transformation FAFH. Almost...unreal. |
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Not at all Rocket.
I think I have pretty much always felt and said that there are inequities in the implementation of the PC charge. You think I haven't ? Maybe I'm a bit clearer thinking on it now perhaps. Could be the case I will admit. |
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Firstly I really don't see why people are fussing so much. The exchange concept is NOT unique to BF and these 480 have obviously enough liquidity to make it pay elsewhere. People will follow liquidity wherever it is. BF is a business and whilst they have strayed from what they were and are expecting customers to pay for their mistakes this is not uncommon in business anywhere - just look at the banking industry.
We all have a choice to play by their rules or not play so enough talk. Action is the only thing that matters. Yes I see the scenario where another exchange follows the same fees as BF eventually but cross that bridge if/when it happens. |
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I think you missed my point, I wasn't talking about the PC.
IMO the only thing Betfair can do now to minimise the damage is to give some sort of assurance that no more pocket pinching ideas will be enforced in the next 'X' years. Unfortunately as they now answer to many others this is almost impossible |
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thing is rocket, I remember them saying they had no plans to change the pc in a webchat not so long ago.
any assurances they gave now would be met with a degree of scepticism imo |
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That's a fantastic point actually.
I may be wrong but I believe it was brought up in the previous Q&A and the one previous to that and they answered both in that way. 'We have no plans' However this was at the same time they were rolling out the cross matcher and their new casino update. They knew fine well. |
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"Look the whole essence of the exchange principle is that it has to be self-sustaining.
If you have a small group of big winners taking inordinate amounts of money out of the system , and not giving the ordinary punter the slighest chance of ever coming out ahead, then it has to break eventually." You are talking about every bookie here and they all take much larger amounts as profits than betfair and they still very much exist. Everyone knows that ordinary punter no chance of coming out in profit long term taking their prices and still nothing breaks.... |
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This whole business has, at the same time, everything.....and nothing, to do with '480' individuals. It's about 480,000 individuals.
Anyone who actually listened to what the directors said at the shareholders' presentation on Wednesday would know what the real purpose of the new charge is. The new PC charging structure is but a mere sideshow in the great scheme of things. It's all about helping losers to lose more slowly than at present. They said so out loud, and even gave a rather disingenuously basic example of the principle in action. The commission generated for betfair by the churning of £1,000 by a 'loser' whose bank deteriorates much more slowly than at present far outweighs the extra PC betfair will generate. But in a magnificent 'double whammy', betfair gets to have its cake AND eat it. Presumably the original PC structure was designed to do exactly the same thing, but it would appear the charge simply hasn't been high enough to achieve its purpose. Who knows; maybe 60% won't be high enough either! In which case they absolutely will hike it again and again until it fulfils its ral purpose. As for 'operational fairness', they just don't give two hoots about that. The 480 leave, betfair wins; the 480 stay and pay, betfair wins even more. And yes, a few years down the line, the exact same scenario would/could/will unfold at another exchange. But by then I suspect the taxation landscape will have changed substantially, rendering the whole excercise somewhat obsolete. Betair's main 'duty' is to shareholders, and whether they realise it yet or not, this is no less than a masterstroke. Probably the best business decision they've made since the golden days in 2000 when the 2 Williams sisters' odds at Wimbledon got transposed and no-one noticed for 2 days. Those days have long since gone, and how!! |
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from Frog
"It's all about "me" it would unfortunately seem. The general good of the ordinary punter is getting lost in all the debate. Very unfortunate". I didn't realise we were in the gambling business for the greater good of all mankind. Too be honest, anyone that says this in not a business is "kidding" themselves. Last time I looked Betfair were treating it as a business. Betfair say that in the last 12 months the liquidity (in Markets) has increased 20% but their profit has only increased by 8%. The next question is what will happen if this move doesn't help with their profit margin,and personally I don't think it can help. Whats happening here is that the people with "bots" are turning their computers on every morning and checking their assured profit and then taking off for the gym and lunch. Betfair are saying ( quite rightly ) --these people can handle the extra charges because there will always be a profit for them,just not as much. The genuine gambler who has the ability to win on his own "smarts" is being blasted out of the water. I have been betting with Betfair since 2003 and it has been a nice ride but it's no longer " worth the price of admission". At the moment I am betting on "future markets" that wont be settled for some months,they will be my last bets with betfair. I'm not dirty on them but just find it will no longer be worth the time and effort. |
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Betfair keep on moving the goalposts and as a pro-trader/punter there is just no long-term stability left in it anymore. I can no longer say I can do this for the next 10 years, not because my edges will be eroded, but because I don't have a clue if I'll have the platform to make it worthwhile.
Not at 250k yet, should hit it next year. I'll make my money and take my chances while I can, before betfair close every possible door.... hopefully some worthwhile competition presents itself. |
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It's always going to be worth turning on a bot for guaranteed profits and then going off to the gym.
It's just going to be a bit different now in that the gteed profits will not be so astronomically high. I'm all for winners being rewarded for effort and skill. But these winners also have to rein in their greed, if it threatens to destroy the exchange concept, by draining too much money out in too short a time frame. |
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It doesn't 'threaten to destroy the exchange concept' for gods sake, it's just a desperate business move by betfair as they have (rightly or wrongly) judged that they'll make more money as a result.
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FINE AS FROG HAIR
02 Jul 11 01:02 Joined: 12 Mar 07 | Topic/replies: 2,728 | Blogger: FINE AS FROG HAIR's blog It's always going to be worth turning on a bot for guaranteed profits and then going off to the gym. Not if you need X to pay the mortgage and the bot brings in X-X |
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Maybe that should be X-Y
[smiley:crazy] |
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Mc Chicken
As things change, new opportunities will present themselves. That always happens. Also one man's poison is another man's meat. I don't worry one bit about those who have been clever enough in the past and in the now to make profits gambling, either here or elsewhere. These types of people have obvious abilities to think about these things in different ways to the average person. They will not only survive but also prosper. Do not doubt that for one minute. |
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You spend hours a day spouting this pointless rhetoric?
You've seemingly taken a part-time job to provide the 'other' side to every premium charge debate. If you were doing this for a living and you were one of those who in two weeks time were due to go from 20% to 60% I doubt you'd be repeating the same old lines. |
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The fact that a couple of months ago he seemingly didn't know his ar*e from his elbow suggests to me that yet again FAFH is the smelliest character on here and one to avoid
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You're both wrong.
I'll admit that I don't depend solely on gambling to fund my lifestyle. But I think, or at least I hope, I know a bit more than most on here on how things work in the real businss world of creating wealth generally. I've made my pot of wealth outside the world of gambling, and I suppose I can afford to take a relaxed view on such matters as the PC. But I can also recognize " greed" and " selfishness' and " short sightedness" and in fact general business myopia when I come across it. And I'm coming across it in spades on here. |
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But these winners also have to rein in their greed, if it threatens to destroy the exchange concept,
-------- excuse me, but where is the actual evidence for this? BF has grown continually, has no debt and a cash pile despite putting money into various non-core failed ventures, so what existential crisis are you talking about exactly? my personal opinion is that fafh has some connection to BF. I just can't imagine why anyone would spend so much of their time on here arguing their case on this and other issues otherwise. |
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The amount of time he spends repeating himself on this topic is utterly bizarre.
But I can also recognize " greed" and " selfishness' and " short sightedness" and in fact general business myopia when I come across it. Are you talking about betfair's actions here (reads like it to me)? |
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Viva
Scout's honour, I have no nexus with BF, apart from being an " ordinary" customer. I'm just a successful business person who sees things as they are in the real world. You cannot run a business successfully if you are effectively giving product away, or at least underpricing it, to those who don't need freebies or discounts to be encouraged to use the product. |
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Mc Chicken
I repeat my mantra no more than you and others repeat the opposing one. Look in the mirror occasionally buddy. |
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It's perfectly sustainable, betfair have deemed that PC increases are a long-term profitable move. They have seemingly over-estimated the potential for growth, and are desperately looking for ways to meet profit projections that they have set.
Only time will tell if this is a positive business decision from them. It certainly goes against any ethos they had when opening the exchange, and a large part of the reason for it's success. |
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FINE AS FROG HAIR 02 Jul 11 01:33
Mc Chicken I repeat my mantra no more than you and others repeat the opposing one. Look in the mirror occasionally buddy. That's not true, you seem to be on an individual crusade to make up for the tide of anti-pc posts. |
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McChicken
When they opened the exchange they probably hadn't even thought of punters using bots. The whole thing has probably evolved far differently than they forecast, and the original pricing structure has been totally inadequate. I say probably continuously, because I will freely admit that I'm largely guessing, as I'm not privy to their inner financial secrets. I'm just trying to apply a bit of basic business common sense to the whole muddy picture. |