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Been here 10+ years, its not realistic to pay 60% premium charge, so in effect Betfair have closed my account.
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one consequence I think this will have is that BF will at some point be forced to legally defend the linkage of accounts for PC purposes. there's just too much money involved now for someone not to go to law.
Totally agree. I mean, I run bots on the football markets. Why couldn't I 'encourage' my girlfriend to open a Betfair account, and then give her my software and a few basic instructions (press that button, love). Technically, and legally, she is doing the betting. |
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catflappo, your one of 'those' people aren't you. Trying to get credit for something they think no-one else has spotted.
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what software do you use contrarian? i await your negotiation for my (far from) PC account?
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something i though about as well contrarian; but surely they are not legally abliged to accept all customers: they must be able to refuse accounts on whatever grounds they like.
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*obliged
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Paul, it's my own software (I wrote it).
DStyle, yeah BF definitely have to right to refuse an account with no justification. |
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Paul, some of the people on here are needlessly rude, but a number are actually quite helpful.
I like to be needlessly rude. I consider it payment for the times I'm quite helpful. |
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Funnily enough Lori, you were one of the few I was thinking of when I posted the bit about some being helpful!!
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speak to you on msn Lori?
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Thanks Bobbin |
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This is not a good move business-wise from bf. It's something they were pressured into by the City and wh/ imv will rebound on them.
There are market makers paying over 20% in comm. generated (but less than 40%) offering fine prices and accommodating bf's losing client base. These people are more like bf's suppliers than their regular punters. In being prepared to freeze them out or take more from them, bf will force a migration and may not be able to provide as good as service themselves. A better long-term strategy wd be to move into new markets with price as the USP. Exchange prices are always going to be better than monopoly tote or private book providers. By admitting they are no more than a private bookmaker themselves, bf are limiting their possibilities for growth. |
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As to whether it's good for me, if the liquidity moves to purple, bettors will surely move w/ it.
Not many people liable for increased pc will be playing on early price horses, but the markets are competitive enough to be tight enough whether they're there or not. The real fear is bf doing away w/ markets where I have a skill-based pricing edge in favour of markets where non-botted players churn money between themselves. But horse markets in general are a long way away being like this. |
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I think you overestimate me, baldloaf ;)
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Contrarian
29 Jun 11 16:38 Joined: 19 May 03 | Topic/replies: 608 | Blogger: Contrarian's blog ... and then give her my software and a few basic instructions (press that button, love). Oo-er |
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Are you lot gonna be happy when the big punters leave rather than pay this tax and the liquidity on all the favourite markets end up looking like the US racing markets?
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I'm in favour, get rid of the Schrewdies as we call them in Deutschland.
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jah jah ich agree-en
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RIP BETFAIR
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Will it get rid of the shrewdies?
There seems to be a widely held belief that markets on here have become more competitive in the last few years. This indicates to me that the whole business of gambling has become more disciplined on Betfair and more professional. Automated betting and intense knowledge of markets for long term winners today; suggests that Betfair's idea in its advertising literature of "novice against novice betting" maybe outdated. Judging by the replies on this thread, if you can believe them? their are still many who still make a good profit on the more competive modern Betfair, these people weren't put off by the changing nature of the exchange in some ways they've flourished with their automated betting and fast pictures. Will Betfair bleed its customers dry in time? Who knows! maybe, but the laws of natural selection suggests the strong will be the last ones standing. Winners in life always seem to find a way to adapt and survive. Its been pointed out before that in reality long term winners pay nothing to the exchange (the successfull gained all their revenue from the people who are unable to make a profit on here) so in reality it is the 85% of us who make a loss on here who will pay this tax. |
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Anyone know how big a player Smartodds is on here?
If they make a large proportion of their profits on here then I'm definitely opposed to the PC hike. |
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Excellent common sense post no moves.
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Its been pointed out before that in reality long term winners pay nothing to the exchange (the successfull gained all their revenue from the people who are unable to make a profit on here) so in reality it is the 85% of us who make a loss on here who will pay this tax.
--------------- no; it's the losers who will be the origin of the money that is paid in tax. which is different. |
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Although you could frame it like that no moves, the losers pay nothing extra as a result of this tax.
It simply changes the split of profits between Betfair and it's winning customers. If this split changes from 80/20 to 90/10, the losers don't pay a penny more, it simply means that a little more of the losers money goes to Betfair rather than the winning customer. Losers pay the same amount, but the proportion in which their funds are split is altered. The 0.1% winners actually pay more. Ergo winners pay the tax, not losers. |
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Imv this depends on whether bf themselves, or bf's preferred suppliers, can give casual punters as good prices as they get w/ the current winning market-makers.
In the sport I bet on, horses, I'm not sure that they can. |
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Forgive me if I am just being cynical but could theinvestor2 be an employee of Betfair?
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Again you can say 'winners pay nothing to the exchange'. However, strange as it may sound casual gamblers benefit from an increase in winners.
Winners compete with other winners for the loser's money. So the more winners there are, the better the odds they will offer. If some is making a market to 1.95 2.04 and I come in offering 1.96 and 2.02, of course the casual gambler will benefit. Someone else comes and offers 1.97 and 2.01 and so on. |
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i thought betfair was about the average person betting against other similar people. when you atart talking about winning a 1/4 mil in profits you might as well say you are betting against a shyte load a bookies.
i am happy about this pc charge as i don't want to bet against people who have walls of money at prices that are sure to have an edge. |
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Joined: 24 Feb 04 | Topic/replies: 1,107 | Blogger: no moves's blog
Forgive me if I am just being cynical but could theinvestor2 be an employee of Betfair? no chance |
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i am happy about this pc charge as i don't want to bet against people who have walls of money at prices that are sure to have an edge.
how about betting in direct competition with betfair then? thats where this is all heading. |
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Why's that DizzyD?
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i thought betfair was about the average person betting against other similar people. when you atart talking about winning a 1/4 mil in profits you might as well say you are betting against a shyte load a bookies.
i am happy about this pc charge as i don't want to bet against people who have walls of money at prices that are sure to have an edge. So for someone who has been here as long as you that equates to just 25k a year for a 8-10 hour day over, perhaps, a seven day week. Not even minimum wage. When betfair are making the markets they'll be taking commission off you if you win and will be taking the majority of your money when you lose, basically they want the lot off everyone not just pc payers. |
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Unless I'm misinterpreting what is meant by betfair making the markets, would it be fair to say that, to successfully make the markets, betfair will probably look to employ some of the very people they are pi**ing right off right now?
If they want the best in the business, they'll be very much mistaken if they think they can get them. |
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They have there own team and it will be an organic process from within the Betfair mothership.....
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Or do they not need to make accurate markets as they think they won't be taking on the big hitting shrewdies?
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Personally, I don't think they will successfull rid their exchange of those who will be able to tuck them up a treat.
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Why employ them when they know what they're doing anyway?
Can't be that difficult to look at their bets and replicate |
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Silverback.....because Smartodds' owner is, like me, a Brentford fan and his generous investment helps keep the club afloat. Without his funding (he's gradually buying the majority shareholding from the supporters trust) we'd probably be struggling near the bottom of League 2 rather than an upper middle League 1 team. Anything that hits his profits could be bad news for Brentford. I've always assumed Smartodds is of the bigger players on here, I know he's made many millions from betting on football, but I never see the company mentioned on here. Perhaps he just manages to do it quietly, which fits in with him and his company's general low profile approach.
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that should read *is one of the bigger players on here*
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Smartodds are indeed one of the biggest players on here.
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