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Replies: 178
By:
Fairfield Grand
When: 25 Jun 11 12:15
betfair's next step is to offer a traditional sportsbook in the countries exchanges where are banned...poacher turned gamekeeper, lets see how they do...
By:
SHAPESHIFTER
When: 25 Jun 11 16:44
Fairground.  If betfair are going to reach out to countries were exchanges are banned and thus increase the liquidity and matching within the exchange, then great.

It already takes place with bookmakers using the exchange.

I'm finding more and more bets being matched at the prices I want in horses.  The volatility isn't as obvious as it was years ago, but is now there a subtle way due to their cross-matching.
By:
askari1
When: 25 Jun 11 17:32
Fairfield, they tried in Italy and ran into the same vested interests.

If you're a politician, you have to weigh a job in a government-run company on one side against better prices on the other. Why shd you want a punter to win and even conceivably turn professional? Betting winnings are only taxed in America and monopoly betting revenue cross-subsidises other spending.

It seems reasonable to me that bf are only going to get licensed in territories where they have sizeable operations w/ tax-paying employees. How many of these can there be?
By:
TheInvestor2
When: 25 Jun 11 17:33
turtleshead
Date Joined: 01 Jan 05
Add contact | Send message
When: 24 Jun 11 21:01
Joined:
Date Joined: 01 Jan 05
| Topic/replies: 10,733 | Blogger: turtleshead's blog
"Btw turtle are you now sticking your head out and predicting BF shares to fall to circa 3.50?"

Maths is not your strong point, if I think they are overvalued by 50% now, that makes their correct price about £5, no?

You didn't need to be mystic meg to work out their float price was ludicrously hyped up from thin air without any basis in reality. I just wish I had known that you could sell their price on the spreads Cry


£5 a share would make Betfair a good investment imo.
By:
Do wah Diddy
When: 25 Jun 11 18:26
THEY SHOULD HAVE A MARKET WHERE YOU CAN BET ,IF THEY GO UP OR DOWN
By:
Do wah Diddy
When: 25 Jun 11 18:28
AND DONT SAY THEY DO ITS CALLED THE STOCK EXCHANGE
By:
pxb
When: 27 Jun 11 03:32
The premium charge chickens come home to roost.

Good job the regulators don't understand what bf did with the pc, otherwise some people would be in serious doodoo.
By:
dashero
When: 27 Jun 11 09:01
LONDON (SHARECAST) - Betfair, the online betting exchange, is to begin searching for a new chief executive after David Yu, the current man in charge, told the board he wants to move on after 10 years at the helm.

Since launching in 2000 the firm claims to have become the largest platform for punters to test their wits against each other anywhere in the world.

Yu took the company public in October 2010 but since then shares have fallen 52% on revenues of around £340m.

The latest piece of bad news for the firm is a proposed new tax regime in Germany which would effectively prevent online betting exchanges operating from 2012. Germany currently provides Betfair with 5% of its income and the move from German regulators hints at the complicated regulatory regime all betting companies face within the EU.

"I have discussed my plans with the board and as a result, we are beginning the search for my successor. We are announcing this now so we can actively and transparently begin the process," Yu said of his departure.

"I will remain committed to delivering the best for our people and our shareholders and will give the board all possible support during the succession process,” he added.

Yu's departure is the most high profile of a string of defections this year. Other prominent executives to leave include: Mathias Entenmann, chief product and services officer; Charlie Palmer, head of mobile; Matt Carter, director of architecture, research and prototyping; Lee Cowles, director of UK sports and gaming, and Robin Osmond, chief executive of financial betting exchange LMAX.
By:
heynoodles
When: 27 Jun 11 09:23
Told the board he wants to move on Laugh
By:
heynoodles
When: 27 Jun 11 09:27
Do Betfair have a PR dept? They've done a terrible job of fighting back against this relentless tide of doom and gloom.
By:
Feck N. Eejit
When: 27 Jun 11 09:53
Their PR dept defected as well. Laugh
By:
heynoodles
When: 27 Jun 11 10:04
Aye he did... to Betfred Cry
By:
heynoodles
When: 27 Jun 11 10:04
It was Mark wot won The Tote.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 27 Jun 11 21:11
Come on lads. Who on here is going to be applying.? Fess up.
Of course you'll have to put your "uccessful" punting careers on hold.
Could be a bad trade off for many of you, it would appear from posts on here.
By:
chrisblues
When: 28 Jun 11 17:44
now will go to £3 sad times
By:
dashero
When: 28 Jun 11 18:01
share price finished up so I guess their results are not too bad....
By:
dashero
When: 29 Jun 11 10:57
Betfair Group Plc (BET), which operates a U.K. online person-to-person betting exchange, said it will add more fixed-odds betting products to keep customers from moving to traditional bookmakers.
The company is looking to add more wagers where it acts as bookmaker, to increase the number of in-game or multiple-bet wagers. Betfair’s full-year profit rose 60 percent as it added new customers, the London-based company said in a statement.
Betfair said 92 percent of its sports revenue was generated through its betting exchange, where customers set the odds for each other. On average, Betfair grabs about a 72 percent share of its customers’ gambling money, said Chief Executive Officer David Yu in a conference call with reporters.
“We know they are spending money elsewhere,” he said. “Some customers have multiple accounts, and we want them to spend more with us.”
Betfair rose 5 pence, or 0.7 percent, to 776.5 pence at 9:13 a.m. after earlier gaining as much as 3.7 percent in London trading. Its shares have dropped 19 percent so far this year, giving it a market value of 830 million pounds ($1.3 billion).
Net income was 24.2 million pounds, or 22 pence per share in the year ended April 30, compared with 15.1 million pounds, or 13.8 pence per share in the same period a year earlier, the company said.
Fixed-odds betting sales are below forecast in the first eight weeks of the new year, while betting-exchange sports, poker and games trading are “in line,” the company said.
‘Challenging’
“While we do not have an operational issue with Betfair behaving as bookmaker, we do see it challenging its sector premium and ‘killer ap’ status,” wrote Paul Leyland, an analyst with Investec Securities, in a note to investors. He has a “sell” recommendation on Betfair.
The company carries a price-earnings ratio of 34, while traditional bookmaker William Hill Plc’s is 12, according to Bloomberg data.
Customer numbers grew by 15 percent over the year, as new players were attracted by last summer’s World Cup soccer championship. Soccer sales grew 24 percent, the company said.
Betfair said it plans to purchase as much as 50 million pounds in shares over the next 12 months. The company also declared its first final dividend, of 5.9 pence per share.
Yu said June 27 that he will leave the company when his contract expires in October 2012
By:
donny osmond
When: 29 Jun 11 11:15
yeah the share price has shot up

premium charge announced just in time , eh ?


they have a premium over the bookies but they
want to become a bookies....
By:
dashero
When: 29 Jun 11 11:39
Share price slump forces Betfair to initiate £50m buy-back


With the company’s shares losing nearly half of their value since its IPO last October, Betfair Group plc has announced that it intends to commence a share buy-back programme to make market purchases of up to £50m of its shares over the next twelve months. 

Betfair was listed on the London Stock Exchange in October 2010 at a price of 1300.00 pence per share, valuing the company at approximately £1.39bn, with approximately 15.2 per cent of the company’s total equity (16,227,462 shares) offered for sale.

Since its IPO however, Betfair has seen the value of its shares disintegrate, with shares hitting a post-IPO low of 714.00 pence per share earlier this week after the company’s CEO David Yu confirmed that he will be stepping down from his role by the end of his current contract.

Alongside the release of the company’s results for the year ended April 30th, Betfair said this morning that it intends to commence a share buy-back programme to make market purchases of up to £50m of its ordinary shares over the next twelve months.

The buy-back programme will be conducted by brokers mandated by the company. Any purchases will be made in the open market and at a maximum price equal to the higher of either 105 per cent of the average middle market closing price of the shares for the five dealing days immediately preceding the date of purchase, or the higher of the price of the last independent trade and the highest current independent bid on the trading venue where the purchase was carried out. 

Any purchase will be subject to availability and market conditions.

“We have a plan in place to deliver long-term shareholder value through a combination of accelerating our revenue growth, driving further margin improvement and returning excess cash to shareholders,” said Betfair CEO David Yu. “The share buy-back programme is one element of this plan. We have always been a very cash generative business which allows us to both invest for the future and return cash to shareholders.

“Our balance sheet remains strong and provides us with the flexibility to react to the fast changing environment in which we operate."

Betfair previously returned capital to shareholders in 2008 when the company returned £112m as part of a court approved scheme of arrangement.

Betfair has commenced a regular dividend payment, with the payment of a final dividend of 5.9 pence per share to be made following shareholder approval at the company's 2011 Annual General Meeting, scheduled to be held on September 22nd.

The company said that had it been listed for the whole of the financial year, the total dividend for the year would have been 8.9 pence per share.

Shares in Betfair Group plc (Co. Profile) (LSE:BET) have gained 0.71 per cent in London this morning and are currently trading at 777.00 pence per share, down 40 per cent on its IPO listing price.
By:
dashero
When: 29 Jun 11 18:20
Betfair's premium charge increase welcomes winners with open palms

The betting exchange claims only 500 customers will pay the new rate, but it could have an adverse affect on average punters

Nothing is guaranteed to stir up punters as much as threatening to take their winnings away, and it's no surprise that changes announced this week to Betfair's premium charge structure have been met with a mixture of outrage and transparent threats to take business elsewhere.

It's worth emphasising that only a tiny minority of Betfair's customers will be affected by the creation of a new top tier of premium charge payers – only punters who are more than £250,000 in profit on the exchange will have to pay at the new rate. Betfair estimates around 500 of their 3.8 million users will be hit.

However, everyday users of Betfaircould be indirectly affected if the increased charges mean that traders who dip in and out of many markets for small but steady profits, decide it is no longer viable to continue to use the website when faced with a tax of up to 60% on their profits.

These kind of traders play a significant role in the liquidity of many racing markets, although a statement from Betfair issued to the City, along with their latest results, suggested that any holes could in the future be plugged by the development of "an integrated exchange and sportsbook combination" – effectively an acknowledgement that Betfair believes it can operate simultaneously as bookmaker and betting exchange.

Sympathy should perhaps be limited towards premium charge-paying punters using faster picture feeds or work from the racecourse to hoover up money on in-running racing markets. Along with those colloquially described as "courtsiders" – exchange punters who have made money from trading in-running on tennis matches by heading to the tournaments and being first to the back or lay button every time – in-running racing punters who lay bets placed on fallers are often seen, even among their own, as parasites. Furthermore, those utilising computer programmes and algorithms to produce returns with minimal overheads will probably continue to operate on the same basis.

Traders who use dedicated applications, that utilise huge volumes of data to build up statistical models are presumably the customers Betfair refers to as being those "who currently pay a rate of commissions and charges that does not reflect the benefit they gain from the Betfair ecosystem".

But there are also a number of other racing punters, those who rely more heavily on their knowledge of the formbook, who will be affected by changes to the premium charge.

A Betfair punter, for example, who has made £25,000 a year over the last 10 years on racing will now have to hand over between 40 and 60% of any future profits – if he doesn't do this naturally through commission generated, then Betfair will simply debit the difference.

That seems an altogether less satisfactory conclusion, particularly as several well-known Betfair punters who have made money out of racing have reinvested in the sport through ownership.

Betfair's former promise that "winners are always welcome", quietly withdrawn when the first 20% premium charge was introduced in 2008, clearly no longer seems to apply to this group and that's a shame (although Betfair would no doubt argue that winners remain more welcome with them than with fixed-odds rivals – they just have to pay more than they did before).

"Since inception, we have provided customers with a unique and innovative product that has consistently offered them, on average, the best value on the market," read a statement from Betfair.

No arguments with those comments here. In common with many British racing punters, Betfair has transformed a large chunk of my betting activity. No restrictions; better prices; an ability to trade out and take profits before and during races. But, then, I'm not one of the "Betfair 500". A Facebook group formed to discuss the "premium charge fiasco" was alive with activity on Wednesday, with contributors calling for strikes and/or the relocation of business to ****, Betfair's biggest rival.

However, similar rallying calls have fallen on deaf ears before. The prospect of a battle between Betfair and its most successful punters may have repercussions elsewhere, not least for fixed-odds bookmakers, who could potentially expect to see some old foes attempting to return.

Proven winners are unlikely to find much in the way of a warm welcome at their door either.
By:
Lori
When: 29 Jun 11 18:28
Betfair said 92 percent of its sports revenue was generated through its betting exchange, where customers set the odds for each other.

Given that they stopped taking bets from their bigger clients because it was "too risky" , can someone remind me what the other 8% is
By:
Lori
When: 29 Jun 11 18:28
Multiples?
By:
ante
When: 29 Jun 11 18:33
Poker? Arcade? Exchange games?
By:
ante
When: 29 Jun 11 18:34
Oh, sorry, SPORTS revenue, I see.
By:
hazel
When: 29 Jun 11 18:42
it seems to me that this is what its all about. 

".. although a statement from Betfair issued to the City, along with their latest results, suggested that any holes could in the future be plugged by the development of "an integrated exchange and sportsbook combination" – effectively an acknowledgement that Betfair believes it can operate simultaneously as bookmaker and betting exchange."

They want to remove long term winners so that they can replicate their mode of operation and take all the money for themselves.  Cant argue with that I guess, but betfair subsidiary  seeding markets will add to complexity and integrity issues.
By:
the message
When: 29 Jun 11 19:01
that wasnt what they said - ezchange to work alongside fixed odds betting for those markets that the ezchange doesnt work - the example they gave was around in play betting on some markets
By:
Feck N. Eejit
When: 29 Jun 11 19:07
These kind of traders play a significant role in the liquidity of many racing markets,

LaughLaughLaughLaugh
By:
askari1
When: 29 Jun 11 19:49
Look at it from the City's point of view (because that's what bf have been doing):

Company 1, let's call them, bet3.65p say they are a profitable gaming company that shuts out skill-based winners. They're no listed but I'm sure the City wd be pleased to provide any financing they needed for expansion.

Company 2, who are listed, say they are a profitable gaming company whose model forces them to share a big portion of their proceeds w/ winners.

The City will be horrified at company 2. They will want them to limit long-term winners' share as much as possible and even move to replace them.

Bf are in the sh!t because what they've told the City over the last nine months has been incoherent and in many instances wrong-headed. They've said they can squeeze out more from clients from cross-selling--when this has just infuriated the company's most loyal customers. They've pushed the idea they are a technology, not a gaming company--when they have no one to sell the technology to w/out giving them a worse business proposition (why wd a bookie like bet3.65 need an exchange) and when they offer their most valuable commodity--accurate tissue prices--free anyway to anyone who wants to look. They have said they have growth areas such as mobile which are less compatible w/ exchange technology than with that of their fixed-odds rivals.

The company has made imv a fundamentally wrong choice in going down the route of squeezing their winners a bit tighter. They need to treat liquidity-generating market makers as suppliers, not as leeches. I don't believe they can replicate the service they offer equally well, in which case it will be off to purple for a lot of bf's casual money.
By:
dashero
When: 29 Jun 11 19:59
Agree with that askari......

from the guardian
Betfair, the struggling betting group, has unveiled one of the swiftest share buybacks in City memory as it announced its first full-year results as a public company.

The betting exchange said it planned to repurchase £50m shares from investors just nine months after its flotation, which has subsequently seen the company shed 41% of its value after a series of underwhelming announcements, regulatory concerns and a string of management departures.

Share buybacks are a popular tactic for mature businesses and are typically employed when companies cannot think of efficient ways of deploying spare cash. However, Betfair was sold to investors in October as a company that had strong growth opportunities. When asked if the management had run out of ideas about how to grow, finance director Stephen Morana insisted: "Not at all. We are investing huge amounts in this business. We announced this at our initial public offering. This was published in the prospectus. It complies exactly with that."

The move to buoy the share price comes after Betfair confirmed that David Yu, its embattled chief executive, would be leaving the company following the group's troubled introduction to the public markets. It also follows a string of unscheduled departures from the company, including those of Mathias Entenmann, chief product and services officer; Robin Osmond, chief executive of financial betting exchange LMAX; and Matt Carter, director of architecture, research and prototyping. The defections came as the company ran a private polling of employees, which revealed that staff believe Betfair management is lacking direction.

Morana, who many employees say trumps Yu for knowledge of the betting industry, has now ruled himself out as a potential successor – although most watchers had already expected the company to make an external appointment, possibly a high profile City figure in attempt to halt the share price slide.

The latest intrigue came as the company announced its first full-year figures, which showed pre-tax profits up 49% to £26.6m on revenues up 15% at £393.3m. However, the numbers were flattered by last year's football World Cup and the company conceded: "Revenue growth during [the financial year] could have been stronger but we have delivered a significant improvement in margin resulting in profitability for the year above expectations".

James Hollins, a leisure analyst at Evolution Securities, added: "Bears will focus on fourth-quarter revenue growth of just 3% and [first-quarter] revenues declining year on year, reflecting [a] tough comparison against the World Cup. We expect continued difficult first half trading, although superior returns on marketing spend and product development should support both future top-line growth."

Espirito Santo analyst Geetanjali Sharma, who advises clients to sell Betfair shares, added: "We are disappointed by the revenue trends. We also anticipate a period of uncertainty as the search for a CEO begins."

The company added that it would invest in its LMAX financial share trading platform for another 12 months, investing no more than £10m on top of the £20m already spent. The venture, which many warned before it was launched would struggle to compete with existing sprea-betting platforms, has failed to catch on despite the backing of investment bank, Goldman Sachs.

Despite trumpeting its international growth opportunities before its flotation, many watchers also doubt that Betfair will be able to trade profitably in jurisdictions outside the UK, even if it gains licences to operate as online betting becomes increasingly regulated.

Betfair's licensed business in Australia is loss-making, while in November 2010 the company's Italian sports betting operation was suspended pending a licence review. "That review continues and we are in regular discussion in order to reach a satisfactory conclusion," Betfair said
By:
brendanuk1
When: 29 Jun 11 20:19
Given that they stopped taking bets from their bigger clients because it was "too risky" , can someone remind me what the other 8% is

Is it betfair Italy? Seem to remember hearing its a sportsbook over there, not sure it would make 8% though. It was suspended mid way through the year. If they have one in Italy could have others? Confused

The volume on our risk taking Sports products increased by 34% over the year, driven by the expansion of our telephone based sportsbook service. The margin decreased from 9.0% in FY10 to 8.7% in FY11 while revenue grew by 29%. Revenue from risk taking products increased to 8% of total Sports revenues (FY10: 7%).
By:
askari1
When: 29 Jun 11 21:51
dashero, if they thought about it bf's clients wd not like the idea that bf's margin was improving given that commission has a fixed structure.

Then again bf are progressively moving away from the exchange model.

As for their remarks about wanting a bigger slice of clients' gambling money, if they can match bookmakers' morning prices at sufficient liquidity then I will bet with them.
By:
FINE AS FROG HAIR
When: 29 Jun 11 22:02
Askari
Nicely expressed penultimate post.
The point in the last para about treating liquidity generating market makers well is the key issue surrounding the PC.
Is the PC failing largely to do this, because it is catching "good guys " as much as it is catching " leeches ".
By:
askari1
When: 29 Jun 11 22:19
FATH, before introducing the pc mark 1, they had the chance to discriminate between _types_ of winner by taking such steps as massively increased data request charges, diff. forms of transaction pricing (that wd charge on a basis closer to per bet than per market), or even gradated clawbacks for abnormally high strike rates suggesting corruption.

They chose instead to apply the charge at proportions of comm. under 20% w/out distinction, very easily catching value bettors on a good run.

I argued at the time that it wd have been preferable to have a charge e.g. some sort of turnover levy that explicitly targeted traders, and maybe more explicitly traders of the kind that move in and out of the market in seconds rather than minutes, only putting up slightly worse offers than on average and according to their algorithm will be available moments afterwards.

This move to me is more naked from bf. It's saying to all winners, we don't want you, we can sufficiently replicate yr liquidity ourselves.

In the context of the sums involved in the business (e.g. a 10 million investment over a year in LMAX, a 825 million market capitalisation), 500 people winning 250k is a lot of money--more than 5% of what the company is ever projected to be worth. It's too much to give away to people who shd be giving to you. Bf can only ever be a bookmaker.
By:
dashero
When: 30 Jun 11 07:02
Betfair's flotation is full of holes

The hopes and expectations contained in Betfair's decision to list have come to little. But it can still generate plenty of cash

Betfair raised no money when it floated last year, so let's remind ourselves of the reasons the online betting exchange gave for going public. First, the directors believed the reputational benefit would help its international operations. There's no sign of progress on that front: Italian regulators have suspended one of Betfair's licences.

Second, Betfair would have "the flexibility to react to a developing and consolidating online betting and gaming industry". In other words, it would be able to buy businesses by paying in shares. In practice, it can't: investors who bought at £13 a share would protest if Betfair printed equity at 771p, Wednesday's share price.

Third, a public listing would "assist in the incentivisation and retention of key management and employees". Oh dear: chief executive David Yu said this week he wants to leave.

Fourth, flotation would "provide ongoing flexibility and liquidity for existing shareholders." Well, yes, they are free to sell shares. But big shareholders, such as SoftBank and the founders, would risk doing even more damage to the share price if they tried to offload large quantities. Flotation, then, has not done what it was supposed to.

Cue Wednesday's £50m share buy-back. In one sense, this was a welcome reminder that the company's core exchange is an impressive operation that generates lots of cash. But it also reminded investors that Betfair could afford to distribute more only if its extra-curricular activities – or "growth" projects – performed to scratch.

Some £20m has been spent on the LMAX share-betting platform and another £10m will follow. The launch is described as a "mixed success", a generous interpretation given that sign-ups are "significantly below expectations". Sports betting in the US is a more promising prospect, but it's early days. Meanwhile, European regulators continue to drag their heels on exchange betting.

Time to postpone dreams of global domination, then, and sit back and enjoy the cash-generative qualities of the core business at home? Betfair is not talking that language – but the share price might improve if it did.

The Guardian
By:
Sandown
When: 30 Jun 11 10:10
BF have postioned themselves to the City as a "techie" company" rather than a "gambling" company.Reason: Their p/e is 30+ Billy H is 10+. Makes sense, yes?

Unfortunately, the downside is the need to invest mega millions in technology and in techie staff to meet the demands. They have also created an unnatural type of customer - a consistent winning customer who takes advantage of their techie skills to cream off profit without little risk. Not unlike BF's model, which is ironic.

Also, and just as unfortunate, Bf have drifted away from their core proposition which was fairer (better) prices (true at face value but not rue after commission and PC) and "we like winners" which they certainly don't.

Add onto this strategic mess the rampant development of products which seem to fit no coherant strategy, and the "bet the bank" need to open overseas markets, where welcoming arms are not present, and you have the extraordinary situation of watching a golden goose slowly being cooked.

The new CEO's (hopefully a "gambling man") first and most important task will be to talk to and listen to his core customers and take heed of what is said. There lies the way ahead.
By:
Sandown
When: 30 Jun 11 10:23
with little risk
By:
dashero
When: 08 Jul 11 16:06
Betfair drops as brokers downbeat


Shares in Betfair are among the top fallers on Britain's FTSE 250 index , off 3.1 percent, pressured as UBS cuts its target price for the betting exchange following its recent full-year results.

"Betfair's results and the ensuing consensus EPS downgrades highlight the lack of underlying growth in the business, in our view," UBS says in a note, lowering its target price to 660 pence from 775 pence.

The broker reduces its EPS forecasts for Betfair by 32 percent for FY 2012 and 27 percent for FY 2013, and maintains its "sell" recommendation.

Separately, Espirito Santo lowers its fair value for the firm to 630 pence, while repeating its "sell" rating.

"In our view, Betfair's updated growth strategy is effectively turning it into a conventional bookmaker over time, diluting the original exchange proposition."

Betfair acts as an intermediary between gamblers wanting to place a bet or offer odds to others, with the company taking commission on their winnings.
reuters.com
By:
Lori
When: 08 Jul 11 16:14
In our view, Betfair's updated growth strategy is effectively turning it into a conventional bookmaker over time, diluting the original exchange proposition

How has it taken them so long to realise this? We've all been saying it for donkeys.
By:
Johnny Fontaine
When: 08 Jul 11 16:30
Time for 'sack the board' chants from the shareholders Mischief
By:
five leaves left
When: 08 Jul 11 16:30
£4 here we come.
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