General Betting
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Greening-up - does it really pay long-term?
Greening-up - does it really pay long-term?
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Replies: 103
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Hello there Plechy
Deciding whether to green up (when an event is in-play) depends on the nature of the bet within the market that you are betting on. For example in a football game if you take the outright market you can place a bet on the draw without the intention of betting that the game is actually going to finish as a draw. Using this example if a game is 0-0 after 25 minutes and you feel that there wont be a goal in the next 5 minutes but also that you think the price will fall significantly in the next 5 minutes then you could back the draw with the expressed intention of then laying the draw in 5 minutes time and greening up. You have no idea of whether you think that the price in question is a good value price for the draw at placing the back bet. In this instance you are not betting on the game being a draw just simply that there wont be a goal in the next 5 minutes and that the change in odds that you expect means that the value of that bet will be good. |
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If the odds in and the odds out are not both good value then that sort of strategy will also fail long term.
If not, why not ? |
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The chances are that both bets will be good value. The flats and plunges on the price graphs tell the story of where to back and lay (after the event) the trick is getting used to doing it just before it happens obviously.
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???? Trevh.
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Look at you P&L for backs and lays. If all lays only or backs only show a loss then forget greening up.
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Can't argue with that really. Irrefutable logic.
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Curly nailed it ....saves a lot of anguish by greening up if things get too heavy .
After saying that, since the pc charge i tend to let things run a bit more than i used to. |
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Coach
Things only get too heavy if you're in too deep. And if you're in too deep then it's only a matter of time before it all goes pear shaped, regularly greening up or not. |
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FAFH , sometimes the unexpected happens ,that's the only time i green up in bulk ..and possibly out of value ... but after saying that you are probably right about the 'being in deep' lark ,i have half a mind to bet in lower volumes for the new season ,too many close shaves for my liking.
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Sounds wise Coach.
I'm sure your doctor will see improved blood pressure readings. |
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It pays in the sense of your pschology.
As for me and many other punters that is the greatest hurdle to overcome then giving away some value for a guaranteed win even if you're giving some value away, is more profitable in the longterm. |
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Apologies. Not giving away value twice, obviously.
Just a badly constructed sentence. |
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FAFH - A stiff drink helps with the nerves i find [;)]
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Hello there Fine as frog hair, glad to see that you are losing your battle with forum addiction. I had visions of you going into Forum Anonymous meetings and saying things like "my name is Fine as Frog Hair and its been 5 days since i last posted". Only joking of course.
Anyway with regards to you post saying "If the odds in and the odds out are not both good value then that sort of strategy will also fail long term." i'd have to disagree and say that as long as your cumulative odds are above value then your srategy will be successful. Taking an extreme example along the lines of draw in outright matches as referred to before, if the true value in-play is 3.00 and you back it at 3.50 and then the true value drops to 2.90 after 5 further minutes and you lay it at 3.00 overall this strategy will be sucessful long-term even though the lay bet isn't at value. All you are doing is betting that in those 5 minutes there wont be a goal and the true value of this bet is difference between 3.00 and 2.90 whereas you got the bet on at the difference between 3.5 and 3.00 which is obviously greater and therefore value. I know that you may well say that if you left it a bit further before laying then that would be better and you would be right but the purpose of the example is to illustrate that not every single bet has to be a value bet in order to succeed long term. |
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Hello there UA.
Unfortunately I have to disagree with you. You are assuming that you are more right than wrong in your " guessing" that there is not going to be a goal in the next 5 minutes. The movemennt of the odds in that 5 minutes will fairly reflect the probaility involved. If you open and close always on the wrong side of the spread ( that is at poor value), you will lose long term, unless you have a very good crystal ball. Btw not a bad idea that one for Forum Anonymous. |
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'It pays in the sense of your pschology.'
This, I probably give up 20% of my profit greening up but i'm far happier and more comfortable that way. Much prefer to have 2 small winning weeks than 1 small losing and 1 big winning week. |
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Hello there FAFH
You say "If you open and close always on the wrong side of the spread" but i am not saying open AND close just that either the open or the close could still theoretically not be at value and it still be a value bet. You also use the term "guessing" but lets face it determining what the absolute true value is at a point in the game is by and large "guessing" as well. It's like saying that you are right more than you are wrong when guessing what the true value of a market is. You also say that the movement in odds will reflect the probability involved but i disagree as you're implying that everyone who has an opinion on what the price should be, will be correct. There are always going to be inaccuracies. It's like saying that the price of a game just before kick-off is always the true price as that's what people think it should be. |
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UA
Your points are fair enough. But in the long term the odds quoted are essentially pretty close to spot on in terms of probability. So if you trade in and out consistently just taking the bet and lay odds on offer, you will lose overall eventually. That's all I'm saying essentially. DonNo1 Not very professional, but completely understandable. Each to his own. |
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No worries FAFH.
Have you started doing any live trading yet or do you still avoid it. By the way I notice your posts are coming thick and fast tonight. |
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No I don't trade at all UA.
Too time consuming in the sense that when I did it took up too much of my leisure time. I position trade only well before the off, and only on football. Place my bets, close down my computer, go out and have fun and relax, come back much later and check the results after all is done and dusted. Much more rewarding both stress wise and actually monetary wise. |
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'Not very professional'
It's not ideal but i'm content with how much I make and much prefer finishing the day in a positive mood |
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Yes it does make that evening sherbert much more enjoyable I agree.
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Fun betting isn't that what the bookies are always trying to get us to imbrace Don1?
But is there really much fun in losing? If you bet in a way in which you acknowledge as less profitable, namely greening up, the game in the long run will be less lucrative. |
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I believe you make more money in the long run if you're a good place psychologically.
Big swings, though on paper, might lead to larger profits, but we are driven by emotions and in reality unless you're psychologically incredibly strong then the dips are likely to lead to you making bad decisions. Slow and steady profits mean you tend to be in a much better psychological place, feel less pressure and are therefore less prone to errors and make better decisions. Leading I suspect to more profit in the long run. |
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'If you bet in a way in which you acknowledge as less profitable, namely greening up, the game in the long run will be less lucrative.'
Naturally. I don't have the ideal make-up for a gambler and am rather risk averse but i've managed to form an edge such that I can make it pay well whilst taking on low levels of risk. I quantify losses and feel regret often so I like to lock in profit when I can even if i'm laying slightly above the true price. If I was at the limit of making a living on here I probably would exploit my edge to the maximum but as it is i'm very happy giving some back and as fll points out remaining positive. For instance if I drop 2k on a Friday I can't rest easy and will have mind on betting on a Saturday where in the end I may win 3k back, but if I lock in £750 on a Friday, my mind will be off betting and can even consider taking Saturday off. The extent of my edge allows me to do this and I feel much less pressured this way |
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Betfair takes 5% off most people
Many long term winners pay premium charge Even people who profess to having an edge wont surely have much percentage profit left after paying commision and premium charge. I'd of thought every last small loss could mean the difference of ending up on the right side and not the wrong side of the line. |
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No Moves
You can have a very large amount of profit left after paying all commission and any PC. In fact you will have 80% of your gross profit, won't you ?. I know this won't apply to those whose earnings go up and down like a yo yo week to week, but those people are not necessarily representative of the majority on here, or are they iyo ? |
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screaming from beneaththewaves's blog
Bet according to what's going on out on the pitch/court/track, never according to the colour of your screen. I tend to agree with this. A good example is tennis. You'll be watching a match and assess "how" the player is winning their points and how solid or fragile their performance is. A few times on football, I have sat without the odds/computer open, seen how the pressure is turning and how fragile the 1-0 lead is becoming and gone in and closed part or all of my bet. More often, my gut is correct and the next goal makes it 1-1. From there, you can always go back in. But I tend to trade back a partial of the bet rather than greening out. This sometimes gives, as someone mentioned, that psychological edge needed to avoid being gun shy in the future. Example, you back a horse for £20. Line up the partials at 1.01 to lay. 2, 3, 5, 10. Watch how the race is panning out. If your horse has the lead and the horses you perceive are dangers are still in the mix, then fire chunks up in-running. If the dangers aren't challenging, look at how the other horses are running. And as the race closes, if it looks tight then fire some of the money sub 2.0 to be clipped. The same approach can be used on any slower moving event. |
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I should start a thread entitled,
How the Premium Charge taught me to embrace my inner loser and make even bigger profits Seriously, the pc pushed me into experimenting again and I think I see ways to avoid the pc and increase my profits. |
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I cannot recall the number of times when I have greened on both sides but as the game progresses, the human nature (greed) takes over and I end up betting all the profits (Green money) made on A on B and at the end of the game, A wins, thus leaving me with nothing but lost time, energy and unnecessary tension! So, the morale here is: Never let the gambler in you take over the trader, which I concede is ALWAYS easier said than done!
It's all about discipline! We are here to TRADE and make money NO MATTER WHO WINS OR LOSES AT THE END OF THE GAME! No matter how minimal the profit (green) can be. It's better than losing on a normal betting site.  |
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Good stuff pxb. I've made hundreds of thousands avoiding the PC. Easy when you realise how.
Funny thing is that I didn't even need to avoid it. Scaremongering on here was what made me think I would need to avoid it... |
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Fred
A legend in the making ? |
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[x] Pleasing Fred?
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Just to sum up lads, pxb and fred are now saying that the PC is a good thing, as it has resulted in them thinking "more deeply" and finding ways to make even more money.
Wonders never cease. |
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Wonders never cease.
Congratulations Froggie. You are the first person I've put on ignore. |
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I've been ignoring you for ages.
Welcome aboard. |
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Btw don't ever stop posting on here.
I tend to find your particular posts quite amusingly ridiculous. I'm just really trying to protect some innocent on here from ever starting to take you seriously. But of course then they would have to take me seriously to heed my warning. Bit of a conundrum that. |
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I just realised that it is a bit unfair of me to snipe at you like this, as you now apparently can't read and reply accordingly. Which sort of takes the edge of things.
So I will stop. |
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" --edge off things "
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Late night/early morning bs.Don't worry folks.
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