General Betting
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BF bombard me with phone calls after forum PC criticism
BF bombard me with phone calls after forum PC criticism
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Replies: 495
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actually, that's wrong - ignore that.
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"Is this customer good for our business?"
______________________________________ and who would you determine is good for business , Jonny ? A lot of losers on here may only lose a fiver a week and will stick to that level for years ,they can't be good for BF can they ? |
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catfloppo someone betting full time and making a profit isnt likely to wait until he makes a loss before he quits unless hes partially addicted.....unless you are factoring back their perceived opportunity cost and deducting that from their profit. Even then someone betting full time could still run out of cash soon enough if he doesnt make enough gambling to cover his living expenses.
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The opponents of the principle of the pc need to consider in what circs it is attractive for bf to have a winning customer.
The answers can only be when they are providing liquidity i.e. they populate markets and 'serve' recreational players or when they are taking negative expectation bets w/ a lot of tail risk (I'd suspect far more winners are doing this than they suppose). Otherwise, why wd bf want to have winners who are just cheese-paring? The same principle applies to the shop bookies I bet at. Staff have both turnover and profit targets. My bets help for the first but not the second. Their solution is to limit me for prices flagged up as high-risk by Head Office and hope that I put more on the losers than the winners (and if I don't, it's the price setters and risk managers who'll take the flak). The big mistake bf made was charging a single comm rate to traders and outright position takers. Imv they shd have rectified this absolutely fundamental error outright rather than introducing the charge. Poss. way to do this include differential comm. rates per number of bets submitted per market, per direction of trades per runner or increasing minimum bet sizes w/ lifetime site profits. Not all are feasible tho, so it seems we will be stuck with a flawed charge for a long time yet. |
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So a good BF customer is
Player A ,deposits £100/month on average ,never has a balance above £500, never withdraws , pays BF £800 commission( is this possible ? ) during the year. Player B ,deposits 3k ,withdraws 1k/month(impressive),never has a balance under 3k ,pays BF £4000 commission/PC during a 12 month period. Player C,deposits 30k ,withdraws 70k at end of year ,pays BF 20k comm/PC during the 12 months.Obviously has 30k min as his balance through the year. They love player A but how much do they love B and C ? |
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the issue with player B though was that for many people the figuree were more like:
deposit 1K (as a one off) withdraw 10K a year pay BF 600 quid a year commission. |
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CLYDEBANK29, I can only really comment on my own circumstances but I think I would need to stand at least two or three losing months before concluding that my edge had gone, depending on how big the losses were. Even then I would probably dip my toe in again a few months later to see if things had improved. I am not in any way an addict, just realistic about the fluctuations on here.
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catfloppo, my sense is that winning gamblers are addicts who have just learnt how to win. It may be slightly different for anyone who bets in a highly automated way and has no interest in the underlying events.
I have a business opportunity coming up for which I wd have to stop gambling part-time (but seriously) for a while. It's going to be much more lucrative per hour spent than making books on here and I'm interested in whether I'll be able to give the habit a kick. |
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isn't a business gambling in itself though askari ? i mean it's not like donning a cap and going to work is it ?
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It is coachbuster and I have always told my family that 'the horses are the only things in life that don't let me down'--in other words that I am less dependent on other people's whims and the caprices of fortune on here than I wd be if I were fully committed to the 'real world'.
Of course there are ups and downs on bf but nothing it shd be impossible to control w/ a winning strategy and good risk management. In the end I think it's what you enjoy doing and what you're good at. I'm fairly good at gambling but there will be many, many better, and it's prob. right that there are other things I cd do that would be more socially useful and more remunerative. |
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i agree with the socially useful part (although fewer and fewer jobs seem to fit that bill).
This is a zero sum game and there will be very few winners long term ,we will all become food on the Betfair sea floor eventually ! I'm not sure how i could be useful in the real world . Good luck anyway askari. |
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askari1,
I do use automated betting. Before the api I made a small profit but I don't think I would have the b@lls to gamble online for a living. |
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catfloppo, I've never been able to put together a compiler that identifies value bets. I have an instinct for them some of the time but this isn't anything that can be formalised. And my background isn't in putting together models or proving hypotheses.
Any edge I have comes from visual information and a read on trainer, horse and crowd psychology. |
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In other words, just done with mirrors and thus just perhaps only transitory success ?
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Compilers, mirrors, wtf are you two on???
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A roll ?
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