Mebbe it is ignorant to think it is possible?

kenilworh never changes his mind on anything as far as I can see in any case.

Sandown

Thank you also. Think you hit the nail on the head with the amount of bets I have.

Yes I do filter down from a much larger number of races.

As regards my forum name that was yet another of my systems that fell by the wayside. Nice try though.[;)]

If the market is extremely liquid, then you cannot find an edge, as the price is always close enough to the "true" value that you will never have an edge over the commission.

.......

As stated above that is clearly not the case but as a general rule of thumb the more liquid a market is the less likely you are to find an edge and you are substantially less likely to find a big edge.  The other dynamic is how difficult the market is to price up.  You are much more likely to find an edge in a horse race than a snooker match for instance.  The 2 go hand in hand of course but whereas there will be more liquidity generally in the snooker match there will be more interest and more will be bet in the horse race (pre ir that is)

But did the bet win Viva?

I backed someone who was ineligible at 180 down to 120 and they won.

I thought you were going to say you backed someone who is ineligible at 1000 Lori

I'm a member of

"I LAID A WINNER ON BETFAIR AT ODDS OF 1000"

Do I get a badge too?

For having the front to be quite open about it you definitely deserve some sort of betfair award I think.

As I guess Bayes does too for his very frank thread about what happened to him the other evening.

trynabe I do, and i think its a major point !!  yes im a little paranoid myself, being an OCD addict dont help and i love conspiracy theories but i think your spot on.
Lets face it, if i worked at betfair ( which i dont ) and i spotted a winning account and it was easy to take apeak without getting into trouble of course i would take a look to see what was going on. Like if someone posted on the forum they had a great winning system, 1st thing i'd do is check there pl,
or if some idiot was bragging they were making thousands i'd take a look just to see if they was really a £2 punter, i think its naive to think that does'nt actually go on ?

If your system involves doing the same thing over and over again using the same odds, watchout !!!

I'd always thought about what you'd said trynabe and always tried to come up with a method that could not be worked out even if someone was studing your account for hours on end.
like value punting for instance, impossible to detect...coz nobody knows where the value is until they actually find it...completely random...but using a stat based system and making it random would be very difficult to do i reckon..

got a few people thinking now hav'nt we ???

Big brother is watching, and a few sneaky staff no doubt

Jeez..anything based on mathematical inefficiency is bound to go or get much harder in time.  Its called derivative betting and is what bookies love because all it requires is a computer program and prices appear for loads of markets.  The ability to initially price up a market is a much scarcer skill than the ability to derive further prices from a priced up event.  It's also a confidence thing....people have much more confidence in taking priced up events

I've made fair money on one particular market and I always used to do it manually.  I built a spreadsheet to do it for me because there was a big event coming up but as it turned out it was a waste of time because for the big event there were early markets already priced up that previously I would have priced up myself and the prices were all spot on (at least I knew my spreadsheet was error free!). 

I clearly was making money before from the markets because I was pricing up future events myself.

oh and the correction has taken place with main street bookies now ,,but for 3 days the lay was lower but that was never gona last realistically
just thought id add that before somebody asked me

my task was to see if you could have a normal discussion on this forum
youve ended the task now with your childish astrology response

The problem I had with my "system" re HORSE RACING was getting it computerised. Did not believe I could afford to pay someone I did not know to do this, and there was the "trust" element re dealing with a "stranger". So I relied on a friend to devise a computerised method to rate races.

Now the above took YEARS to get the "system" ( called hereafter HRS) onto a computer......for friend would have periods where they did no "work" on it.....

Once I had HRS on computer, then for first month of using it , doing roughly 800 races, I made umpteen "errors" in using HRS on computer. Just took me ages to get concentration up to speed, and also the amount of races being covered was pretty knackering, even with using a computer.

The 2nd month, MAY 2008, I was getting "better" at using HRS . However, the system was devised to get GOOD ODDS WINNERS in the top rated horses ....................it was not devised for LAYING purposes.

In APRIL 2008 the system was being used to LAY horses in PLACE market...........which led to it not doing very well due to :_

1. Me making many mistakes in applying HRS and
2. HRS not being devised for LAYING purposes, and
3. I did not really appreciate what the "quirks" of using such a computerised system were ( with certain race types the ratings could be topsy turvy due to some subjectivity in rating races).


After a few days in MAY 2008 then a decision was made to stop an "arrangement" made with an experienced layer to try various strategies using the ratings. A small profit was made over the period of a month and a bit..........but generally i was a bit deflated re the HRS being any good for LAYING purposes in PLACE market. However, the reasons why the STRATEGIES used did not work too well were down to the above 3 circumstances..... 

The "excitement" of getting a computerised version of HRS , combined with using it on computer , something that was alien to me  , contributed to ratings having mistakes being made....Also I discovered later that some parts of the HRS were not functioning correctly! Now fixed !

I layed HRS aside due to being knackered and deflated by the results of using some strategies on mainly LAYING in PLACE market not working as well as had hoped.

Since 2008 I have gone over the ratings and -

1. Detailed all SP odds for every horse rated ( over 10,000 horses rated)
2. Detailed results on ratings .
3. Applying selection criteria to races selected.
4. Considered numerous STRATEGIES on the ratings and found many STRATEGIES that appear to be PROFITABLE ones.

OK ....I only have 623 races where strategies have been tested on but WIN LAYS profit is over 200 points and PLACE LAYS profit is over 140 points ( laying to gain 1 point etc ). How "successful" those figures are ....i have no idea as i am not a LAYER.

However, the point I am making is that some systems are so complex that it is difficult to fully comprehend uses for them......even for the originator of them !


Due to various commitments "work" wise it will take me til JUNE 2011 before I can apply HRS again......now that I know which strategies to use on certain race types/shapes etc.....

As I have seen some posters saying SYSTEMS don't work ...or can't last etc etc .....then thought I'd post this to indicate they can.........if you get to understand them better.....

GL A with digging out all the ones that "worked"!