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General Betting
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Systems, methods and strategies. My 10 year conclusion
Systems, methods and strategies. My 10 year conclusion
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Replies: 148
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American are better than English too as each state is a seperate bet and declare slowly through the night.
Almost like 10 English elections in one go for the closest 10 states. maps of where has declared so far, numbers of who is leading and what might be to declare, national picture to consider etc etc  I should stop now, i think the bath is overflowing. |
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One way of increasing liquidity
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does anyone remember the OCD thread? one of the all time classic threads, imo. I'll try and ttt it.
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just ttt'ed it, but it's in football betting.
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cheers viva i'll take a look later when the betting slows down a bit, i remember seeing a while back and forgot to look through then.
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I always found betting on Big Brother very profitable but it did my head in watching the programme itself so I quit doing it after a few years. I found it just about the most inane drivel available on tv and that was just watching the main show some nights, I could never bear the thought of watching the live feed.
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Add me to the OCD list, lol. Same as you Armagnac, I got it from my father, he does the hand washing thing. We used to play tricks on him by placing a single blade of grass on the carpet in a random room, then watch him come in, spot it and pick it up straight away tutting to himself! He actually brushes the road outside his house every day and constantly moans about litter.
My ones are checking the cooker is turned off (I imagine that's quite common) but mainly car rituals that involve checking the bonnet catch is fully pushed in, the handbrake fully down, fog light switch is off, and mirrors adjusted to the millimetre before setting off on every drive, then checking them all again after I've set off. Also have a terrible habit of double checking other things, I'm a compulsive double checker of just about everything. I think that stems from my carpentry apprenticeship, again with my father who didn't allow mistakes, make a mistake and you were made to feel like a complete fool and bollocked inside out, so double checking everything began there. |
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I am 53 and have been gambling since I was about 12. Used to play cards on the bus to school and had a regular card school every sunday night. First got into horse racing in 1976. Blistering hot summer with small fields Favs trotting up all over the place. Never had it so good.
Got brought down to earth when winter arrived. For the next 34 years I have been searching for that system that pays. Casino, horse racing, poker, lotteries you name it I have tried it. There would be periods of small success followed by the inevitable downfall. Worked for C O R A L S for 13 years which in hindsight did give me an indication of when and what to bet on, but still no holy grail. 18 months ago I followed up a small success I had about 6 years ago and meticulously checked the results back for 10 years and then 20 years. I couldn,t quite believe what I had found out. So I started with the system in December 2009. It takes up maybe an hour of my time each week and the returns on investment are approx. 67%. So never ever give up the ghost.Good luck with your quest. |
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Trevh
Your not alone A few people have mentioned the handbrake on the car, it just shows how random OCD is coz i dint have any problem with that but once ive parked up the car either in town or back at home. I have major issues with the doors and windows making sure there shut and locked. the same checking process as the house. I must look so odd to the neighbours checking my car for 5/10 mins everytime i come home, lol. When im parked in a car park and start my checking routine, any passers by must think im trying to break into the dam thing One of my mates call me OC coz im so bad |
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dont*
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exactaman
I think nearly every gambler in the world has that amazing lucky streak for the 1st weeks of there gambling life and inevitably get sucked into thinking ' god this is easy ' of course its not long before it all comes crashing down. Glad to see you've turned the corner and are now heading in the right direction, it seems your very long apprenticeship is now paying off  goodluck and remember to take the odd holiday now and then. |
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'18 months ago I followed up a small success I had about 6 years ago and meticulously checked the results back for 10 years and then 20 years. I couldn,t quite believe what I had found out. So I started with the system in December 2009. It takes up maybe an hour of my time each week and the returns on investment are approx. 67%.'
Nice going, exactaman. Is that horse racing you're betting on? |
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Thinly veiled what is your edge? By duncan idaho their, because i'd like to steal it off you.
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yep, this is def. my spiritual home...
Ok, confession time here. I have a ritual for checking results... I find it very difficult to watch the end of race - I'm ok up to about one furlong out, then I have to switch channels. (oh this is so embarrassing...) So to check results I have a postcard I hold over the bf page for that race, and once the suspended gif is up and I know the race is over, I slowly uncover one horse line at a time (always leaving the horse I've laid until last) hoping for blanks because that means the horse has placed. If I find three blanks I know my lay bet has won... Just reading that back makes me realise how stupid my actions are, but it's a ritual I can't seem to break... I enjoy the suspense of it I guess. I know it's a long shot... but does anyone else do the same?  I also have to arrange the remaining eggs in a box in a (if possible symmetrical) pattern! |
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I used to play an American Football simulation called "Gameplan" where the results were sent by post. 6 pages of printout in the format:
0:13 SW LB 1st and 10 Run for gain of 5 yards... 0:42 .... etc Used to use a stopwatch and only read the appropriate line (Covering up in similar method to yours) when the time on the left came up on the stopwatch. Friend who also played did the same. Good way to kill an hour |
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Duncan
In answer to your question yes it is horse racing and I am afraid that is as much as I will reveal. |
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yeahyeah , i do the same from time to time on results. start at the bottom and work up, not third place , good not second place yes either won or no where , damn nowhere
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Lori, did you get my response to your message?
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I sent it a while ago by the way.
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exactaman It takes up maybe an hour of my time each week and the returns on investment are approx. 67%.
Which sport and from how many bets ? |
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kenilworth..he said it was horse racing. That said you are not going to go 30 years of trying to make a profit and then suddenly turn a profit of 67% on a consistent basis. With that sort of a return he'd be a millionaire within a year and a half. More likely his maths needs retuning. Nevertheless there are different ways to calculate returns on turnover. Someone who backs 1500 1.01 shots and has 10 losers. His return could be 0.33% or 49% depending on how you view it and both answers can be right.
In one market I play and I'm keeping records I had a run of 17 consecutive winners. In the last 20 markets I have 10 winners and 10 losers. |
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Kenilworth
As Clydebank rightly pointed out it is horse racing. The returns on investment are correct at 67%. E.G. £100,000 invested would return £167,000. This is based on the last 20 years results. The number of bets is quite small relatively. Approximately 50 bets per year. I have calculated that it will take me until approximately 2018 to win £1,000,000 due to the small number of bets. |
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There are different ways of calculating %profits and my preference
is level stakes. At 50 bets per year over 20 years, (1000 bets) £1 per bet, he is £670 in profit, or has he increased his bank by 67%, not naming his stake per bet ? |
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That is level stakes for the 20 years.
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go on exactaman tell us , you know it makes sense. we might be able to refine it for you
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I think after 34 years I can refine my own systems thank you Olddesperado, but very nice of you to offer thank you.[;)]
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your welcome.
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Does it involve 1st time out in blinkers at Towcester?
Am I getting warm? |
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670 points profit to a point stake per qualifier
from 1000 bets? |
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Now thats a return i would like to see!. Are you the lad from Mexico who has pipped Gates and Co on the rich list?
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Liquidity works both ways. If the market is extremely liquid, then you cannot find an edge, as the price is always close enough to the "true" value that you will never have an edge over the commission.
Illiquid markets however, you can make the markets yourself, and as long as you have a genuine edge and good research, you can put up a book and have a reasonable chance of getting it matched across the market at a fair overround. I must stress I don't have any experience market making on betfair (my bf bank is about £30, a fact I don't hide), but I can imagine it can be profitable. Even if you're just backing 1.03/laying 1.02 in running in footie matches, enough gets matched you can skim a lot, but you need to be good and have a good understanding of where odds will go after a goal so you can get in early behind the queue without risking getting sniped. Cricket is good for that, I'll often put up a position knowing it'll get matched after a wicket but actually be a good price despite that. But a lot of the bets I make work because I'm betting pennies, I would not be able to take out £100 a day just by multiplying all my positions by 100. |
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If the market is extremely liquid, then you cannot find an edge, as the price is always close enough to the "true" value that you will never have an edge over the commission.
That's not true ror. Sometimes the most liquid markets can give you a great edge, namely 'time'. Every week there are highly liquid football matches where the 0-0 odds don't decay as quickly as they should, just one example. Even Dundalk tonight had a slow decay from 12.5 to 8.5 in the first 30 minutes, that's a great edge for layers. |
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kenilworth Joined: 04 Nov 05
Replies: 4824 21 Mar 11 18:54 670 points profit to a point stake per qualifier from 1000 bets? No response to the above post, so I will answer it. It's not only improbable, but impossible. I think the posster must have the dot in the wrong place. |
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no it's not impossible kenilworth. You can win 999 pts from 1 bet for a start on here
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fwiw there's a bet I was holding out for available at 40/1 and 33/1 all over the place 3 hours ago that is best priced 10/1 now.
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If I went back 9 years and I tried honestly to pick what I thought were genuinely my best 500 (1000 is probably a bit of a stretch) bets over that period before the event I mebbe would have achieved that percenatge return (although it would depend entirely on how many short priced bets there were)
Problem is out of those 500 bets how many would be in mainstream events where you could get £500 on...mebbe 5 a year at best. Some I may have been able to get only a tenner on ..some like the bet above ..as it turns out nothing at all. It makes things like Kelly totally redundant 99% of the time as often the biggest challenge is getting on Over a period of a year, without the benefit of some massive priced winners, and in mainstream events where you could get a decent bet on I'd say it was impossible to get close, but I could be wrong. |
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kenilworth Joined: 04 Nov 05
Replies: 4824 21 Mar 11 18:54 670 points profit to a point stake per qualifier from 1000 bets? No response to the above post, so I will answer it. It's not only improbable, but impossible. I think the posster must have the dot in the wrong place. Kenilworth The dots are all in the right place. As I said in my first post, even I couldn't believe what I found out when I did my research. There is no way of me authenticating this to you unless I was to actually show you my system. Unfortunately this is not going to happen. Whether or not you believe me is entirely up to you. |
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It's not a matter of not believing, it's a matter of what is
possible and what is not. An example of your claim; backing, say 1/1 chances would require a 83% strike rate, 3/1 chances a 42% strike rate etc. Those strike rates are simply not possible except in the short run, not over 1000 bets. Sorry, GL. That's me out of this thread. |
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I beleive his system involves laying, not backing. just guessing, its just easier to find losers than winners especially at the races.
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I believe you exactaman that it can be done...........with HORSE RACES ( specific types) anyway........and ROI would be substantially higher, but strike-rate low......Some stats I have for such a high reward betting strategy are for 3 strategies were over 46 day period...
NUMBER OF BETS FOR -284 -454 -508 PROFIT/LOSS RE STRATEGY 1160.07 1408.44 1354.44 PROFIT/LOSS RE STRATEGY 1160.07 1408.44 1354.44 ROI ROUNDED 408.4753521 310.2290749 266.6220472 NUMBER RACES 7 42 55 So i believe it IS POSSIBLE..........and for someone to state it is NOT, without knowing what the feck someone is doing is pretty ignorant IMO........ |