General Betting
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Yes its been 10 years, which has been on/off and two accounts since i had this brainwave that i could just sit here and make £100+ a day, tax free using a simple system.
All i had to do was come up with this method that was going to lay these golden eggs or produce a money growing tree at the end of the garden.
well guess what ? i cant find one !!
There is no doubt in my mind there is great profit making strategies out there and people are using them with great success but we will never get to hear about them and thats the way it should be.
Why dilute an award winning wine ?
You'd have to be brain dead to give away your edge !!
Ive tried working out systems on horseracing, tennis and football as this is where the most liquidity is using mainly stats and maths as a basis.
Anyway after 10 years ive come to the conclusion im never going to find that massive edge or the golden goose, ive combed every market and tried everything i can possibly think of to produce a fine wine to no avail....BUT and a big but.. in my haste to find the BIG ONE, the boeing 747 of systems..the life changer...i actually did found a little golden nugget, infact lots of tiny little nuggets but where the **** have i put them !!
Basically over the last 10 years ive had lots of systems produce a profit but only a very small time consuming one.. say 10 units up over 100/150 bets, which can take weeks to achieve...so i just binned them off coz i wanted to get rich quick !!
Now im thinking if i put all these systems, methods and strategies together in a giant pot i can seriously cook up a quality stew to go with my classic Romanée-Conti.
Just one problem, all my ramblings over the last 10 years were scribbled on pieces of paper long since gone !!
Time to take a trip down memory lane and try and remember which of the hundreds of crazy methods i tried did actually make a very small profit and start using them.
I may not have a golden goose or a money growing tree but im sure i will have a few slices of bread and butter.
Anyone else been through simualar experiances ?
All i had to do was come up with this method that was going to lay these golden eggs or produce a money growing tree at the end of the garden.
well guess what ? i cant find one !!
There is no doubt in my mind there is great profit making strategies out there and people are using them with great success but we will never get to hear about them and thats the way it should be.
Why dilute an award winning wine ?
You'd have to be brain dead to give away your edge !!
Ive tried working out systems on horseracing, tennis and football as this is where the most liquidity is using mainly stats and maths as a basis.
Anyway after 10 years ive come to the conclusion im never going to find that massive edge or the golden goose, ive combed every market and tried everything i can possibly think of to produce a fine wine to no avail....BUT and a big but.. in my haste to find the BIG ONE, the boeing 747 of systems..the life changer...i actually did found a little golden nugget, infact lots of tiny little nuggets but where the **** have i put them !!
Basically over the last 10 years ive had lots of systems produce a profit but only a very small time consuming one.. say 10 units up over 100/150 bets, which can take weeks to achieve...so i just binned them off coz i wanted to get rich quick !!
Now im thinking if i put all these systems, methods and strategies together in a giant pot i can seriously cook up a quality stew to go with my classic Romanée-Conti.
Just one problem, all my ramblings over the last 10 years were scribbled on pieces of paper long since gone !!
Time to take a trip down memory lane and try and remember which of the hundreds of crazy methods i tried did actually make a very small profit and start using them.
I may not have a golden goose or a money growing tree but im sure i will have a few slices of bread and butter.
Anyone else been through simualar experiances ?
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what works today may not work tomorrow, but what doesn't work today almost certainly won't work tomorrow either.
therefore winning strategies get harder not easier to find. therefore it pays to start looking today rather than tomorrow. |
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The markets on here are very accurate.
Perhaps not on a runner-by-runner or even race-by-race basis for insiders, but once you start aggregating prices e.g. looking at how 2-1 jollies do over hundreds of races, or e.g. winners last time out w/out being reassessed or animals returning to a RH course or dropping to their last winning mark, then you can find very few pricing anomalies. Understanding trainer and horse psychology is hugely advantageous but might not get you over the hurdle of comm. As maximum suggests, the way to go is to take more bets at a smaller subjective margin. Prob. the way the big winners win is simply to do time and again the things you initially discarded looking for a knock-out strategy. |
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therefore it pays to start looking today rather than tomorrow
I like that sentence a lot. No better time than the present. Small advantages compounded can soon add up. |
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I'll give you an example of an old winning strategy I used involving Premier League Darts. It was based on the fact that matches were significantly more likely to be won on your own throw which meant you backed the player throwing first to win 8-3 and 8-5 and likewise the player throwing second to win 8-6 or 8-4. Didn't last long that one before the odds changed.
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so i just binned them off coz i wanted to get rich quick !!
says it all |
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It has taken me 25 years of betting and although I did not keep records for the first 12 years, I am 16 days away from making a profit this year (Apr-Apr) and believe that I have served a long and difficult apprenticeship. The reason is that I have spent all these years studying betting that I now know what pitfalls to avoid, I sometimes slip up but this year has definately seen a turning point. There are no systems, for me it comes down to hard work, watching as much of the sport that you are betting on.
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systems dont work (nap)
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any system which does work will be discoverable by others and cease to work (nap)
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9 years and still no ships!
keep spouting the rhetoric presidente |
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birch2, are you Richard Birch by any chance?
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shame innit.
I started doing something/discovered something I think around the end of 2006. It worked until October 2009 when at a stroke someone else muscled into the market and any value went. Funnily enough about two weeks to a month before that someone entered the market and very briefly made a mess of it (possibly the same person) Point is all it takes is one other person to mess you up. |
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alas, no - I would not be too happy with his strike rate
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fair enough birch2, thanks.
................................................. The whole issue of searching for the edge within the markets I think is something that has probably been explored to death. It's not to say of course that further opportunities don't exist, but by definition as time passes they will become less and less. Maybe the way forward is to get a little old fashioned and try to predict the outcome of an event better than those you compete against? |
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still, 3 years is quite a decent run clydebank.
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Dave Edwards
if not less and less. its certainly tighter and tighter - but rather than get old fashioned, you need to improvise on your strategy more and more and grind out the results |
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To get anywhere you have to think of an idea ,then think of an idea within that idea and then an idea inside that idea.
Its no good just thinking 'that might work i'll try that' . I would sit down and think on a different level to the norm. Try to imagine round tea bags at a time when tea bags were square . |
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Armagnac : Basically over the last 10 years ive had lots of systems produce a profit but only a very small time consuming one.. say 10 units up over 100/150 bets
10 units up over 100/150 bets is great, it sounds like greed got the better of you. Of course it's time consuming and hard work, anyone who thinks gambling for a living is going to be 'living the dream' is totally naive. In my case for instance, I spend roughly 12 hours a day on here, sometimes more, Friday and Saturday nights I'm placing bets at 2,3,4 o'clock in the morning and then up for an 11am kick off the next day through to 11pm, playing in-running. During that time all bets and odds matched are recorded to analyse later. I wouldn't recommend full time gambling to anyone, it's long hard lonely work and has to be in your blood as your life revolves around it. Who in their right mind would choose that? DaveEdwards : Maybe the way forward is to get a little old fashioned and try to predict the outcome of an event better than those you compete against? I can't see many people succeeding at that Dave, predicting the future is notoriously difficult, some would say impossible :) |
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I can't see many people succeeding at that Dave, predicting the future is notoriously difficult, some would say impossible :)
And that is why I am attracted to it. Firstly, I love a challenge, but more pertinently if your are prepared to put in the work and build up your own database of information as compared to that shared by the masses then "picking winners" becomes a more viable proposition. Not to say that it is easy work. I put in 12 hours yesterday and will do the same today, taking a break for Cheltenham of course! |
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^^ you are
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the best system is too use your head and observe keep observing keep making notes football can be done especially on the goals market just keep looking for patterens observe observe
i have an nba system that im testing its 3 from 3 i think it will work it makes sense and its really easy no hard work involve |
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I believe the football markets are basically efficient and I also
think the loopholes are to be found in the market moves. There are many over reactions to minor news items, team changes etc, and some nuggets appear here and there. It helps to be totally objective as I feel I am, it also helps if one is a seller rather than a buyer. One other point is to be satisfied with thin margins, as low as maybe 5%. |
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armagnac,
I too have tried to find the holy grail for the past few years but can't find it anywhere. Over that time though I have found systems which give a small amount of profit. If you can find a few of these, and use them at the same time, then your bank may be able to build up. I'm currently using a 4-pronged attack using 2 bots. While I didn't have much supporting data (only one months worth) I thought I'd at least give it a go asap (as viva el presidente! said - it pays to start looking today rather than tomorrow). Although it is only early days the 4 different systems are up +86 points so far this month (15 days). While it may not keep going, I'll keep fighting until the bitter end to try and make something work. And don't forget, your 10 units profit can be anything depending on how much your units are. If betting 100 then your 10 units equals 1000. Happy Days.  |
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DaveEdwards
Congratulations, i believe you have cracked the holy grail of betting...am i right in thinking you have taught yourself how to become an odds compiler ?? if your are prepared to put in the work and build up your own database of information as compared to that shared by the masses then "picking winners" becomes a more viable proposition. To make this pay you simply have to be the best in any given area, or better than the highstreet gents who consistantly make error's in there so called specialised fields. I presume you specialise in one maybe two sports ? you gain as much information about these sports as possible by: 1) Reading the daily/weekly/monthly papers and mags 2) Reading the top internet sites for each sport to keep upto date with news, injuries and stats. 3) Use social networking sites to keep upto date with certain individuals who like to chat, eg twitter can be amazing for tennis..certain players like to mention how there feeling. eg negative, tired, injured. 4) Finally the most important, watch as much of the sport as you possibly can. Basically eat, sh!t and sleep that sport. Now you've become as much of an expert as you can, you should feel quite confident of pricing up markets in that sport...maybe not all area's but certain teams and individuals who you know inside out should be fair game. Now its a waiting game, for the market to form or the books to show there hand and if there line is way out compared to yours you strike. We all have differing opinions of value, but i only bet when i THINK im getting HUGE value...not when value is available but when value is screaming back at me. I have certain markers. eg: If i price up a certain market and i think my selection should be around the 1.60 mark, then i check here and the books i will only bet if i can get on at 1.84 ( after comm ) or above. Basically im not looking for value, im looking for mega value when i bet. My markers are based on getting an extra 40% minimum of what i price up at. my price 1.70 only bet at 1.98 or above my price 1.80 only bet at 2.12 or above and so on. Some might say if your getting value why not just take it, whatever it maybe. Well i studied certain markets over a very long period of time and found i was achieving virtually the same profit margins by just taking the big value bets than betting on all value situations and virtually cutting my number of bets in half. eg: A ROUGH EXAMPLE 1000 bets on all value + 140 units 500 bets on 40% or more value + 125 units I was virtually breaking even on the lower end value bets so it made commen sense for to reduce my number of betes considerably and still achieve virtually the same profit. Now taking all this into account, these bets are very hard to find and can be rare..i can study upto 10 hours and may only find 4 or 5 bets, but i have great satisfaction in placing them win or lose. This method combined with others i am currently resurrecting are bring light to a very very long tunnel. |
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The_Ocho
Great stuff pal, thats exactly what im talking about. keep looking for those tiny profit makers incase you start to lose your value/edge on one or more of your current methods. I have been greedy and trying to get rich quick but with hard work and half a dozen little workers you can still make good steady profit and if one system does lets you down over the day, the others will balance that out. goodluck |
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I wouldn't say that I have cracked the holy grail as such. I have had a few insights of my own, but the bottom line is working hard.
I wouldn't call myself an odds compiler, but I can price up a domestic match. I only look at Premiership games. The reason for this is that there is more data available here than on anything else. This is deemed to be hardest place to get ahead, but the key thing is looking at issues that others don't attach too much importance to or overreact to. My other area of interest is greyhound racing & am intending to do a bit on the flat handicaps this summer too. |
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great stuff Dave, here's a site that will help if you dont already have it.
. http://www.betinf.com/england_injured.htm amazing for injuries |
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Thanks Armagnac, looks very interesting. Didn't know about this site.
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Thers is a lot of importance attached to team news, injuries etc on here
But team fitness is almost as significant if not more so to the outcome of a match. |
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Good point Rocket, almost certainly overlooked by many punters
This applied massively to Andy Murray in his early days and many naive punters got caught out when he become one of the fittest players on tour but still believed he was flagging during a match...only to later realise this was his natrual look, to appear extemely tired.. lol |
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viva el presidente! Date Joined: 10 Jun 06
Add contact | Send message When: 14 Mar 11 21:47 Joined: Date Joined: 10 Jun 06 | Topic/replies: 7,234 | Blogger: viva el presidente!'s blog any system which does work will be discoverable by others and cease to work sorry I usually agree with the presidente but that was just bollox |
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Rocket, what do you mean regards team fitness ? Are you
talking about individuals coming back after injury or what ? |
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okay lex, maybe not every system will cease to work for practical purposes.
but as a rule of thumb it's a good one. if you can work it out, it's by definition discoverable, and the chances of it being discovered tend towards one with time. worse, once you start using it there's additional information out there to point people in its direction: your bets. |
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I'm with you armagnac ....
If it makes you feel any better I've been p*ssing around for the last 40 odd years and still havn't found the Holy Grail of betting. In the early days ...thought I'd discovered a foolproof system on Roulette...just playing even chance (Reds /Blacks) (martingdale system ?) ...had 4 winning nights on the trot & well up - then night 5 betting red, had 19 consecutive blacks against me a zero & then another 6 blacks !!!! wiped out ! The good thing is - I never bet with money I can't afford to lose ...so still trying ! |
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Rockinron
I never bet with money I can't afford to lose very good point, all newbies to our game should read this a thousand times and engrave it into there brains. trying to work stuff out, can become quite costly !! |
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Martingale, there is no pockets deep enough for that system. avoid at all costs
i actually toyed with this and made subtle changes to it in my early days on a number of markets, but had many losing sequences and soon realised a system this simple was doomed from the start. |
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kenilworth 15 Mar 11 11:32
I believe the football markets are basically efficient ______________ I disagree , i don't think they are on the whole ,peoples perceptions of an event are always slightly skewed and too much is left to the imagination. The only problem is the majority are also un-tradable since that belief won't go away throughout the 90' duration with an almost stubborn belief . The only way to take advantage of this is to bet outright which involves gambling with fairly large sums,and the problem then becomes one of a potential sods law even though the odds are in your favour to some 3 or 4% . |
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presidente
All systems are cyclic and most fail because the long term average liability is greater than the average long term profit; a negative bias. A system with a positive bias cannot fail. |
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You have to think outside the box..
imo Kenilworth made a very accurate statement in which if applied correctly you can make money from the 'Crowds..OVEREACTIONS..this always works the same when dealing in shares. You only have to look at IR prices after the event to see that some were ridiculous investments/decissions taken in a fraction of a second,you just need to think of a way to capitalize on others errors |
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for any system to work, two things need to be true. there needs to be a discrepancy between prices and true probabilities, and you need to be able to implement it.
over time, two things (actually one thing in two guises) are likely to happen. the prices will shift to more accurately reflect reality, and competition to take advantage of the wrong prices will increase. |