The futility of betting

If making money is the sole object then, like with most other things in life, it will become rather pointless at some stage, mor eparticularly if you succeed in doing it solely with bots requiring little or no intervention.

FAFH,

Working out (and then programming) profitable bot strategies is the only interesting part of the work for me.

Not my point really Contrarian.
As you yourself said, once the models are up and running the challenge is over for you.
But if you're constantly setting yourself new programming challenges, then presumably you will not be bored.
The point is that it's not really about the money for you is it ?

Ultimately because I do win some money. Not a great deal but enough to help make a difference, whilst still being able to be at home. Don't get me wrong I do enjoy what I do, otherwise I wouldn't do it and I understand what you are saying about the challenge. If I found that I couldn't make money or I was losing money then I would quite happily stop. Hmm I wonder how many gamblers have made that last statement only to lapse. Anyway fortunately I don't have to prove that last statement just as people don't have to believe it.

I do enjoy what I do, but if I didn't have to do it or it doesn't make a difference there are other things that I would happily do or try to do instead.

kef4o     05 Jan 11 20:29 
Tctctc, I'm disappointed. I'm alone in this. Money is not the goal. It's the byproduct.

I dont get it. Ivey plays poker for cash/challenge/job but cash is the core reason not a byproduct, no?

Contrarian     05 Jan 11 15:04 
Don't you find, though, that there's not much of an intellectual challenge left,

lucky you, enjoy it 99.99% struggle.

FINE AS FROG HAIR     05 Jan 11 21:11 
If making money is the sole object then, like with most other things in life, it will become rather pointless at some stage,

not pointless, great to earn good money dont get this either.

Ok, about Ivey, he plays craps for fun, and bets lifechanging amounts on it, to the majority of the world at least. Does he do it for money? Does he really have to play as high as he does to maintain the life he has built around himself? He needs to feel it, the buzz of winning. And that's what makes him be the guy that he is. It's his own words:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNb2-ZB5Vhw&t=1m8s

Why on earth would someone want to quit a good job to do this full time?  If I had a good job to go to, I would switch off my computer and forget all about horse racing.  I wouldn't even watch the Grand National again.  (And as a child, I used to love it, and the local point to point meetings.)

Making more money on a consistent basis, that's usually the truning point.

Maksman
The answer is only if you can do it successfully without having to put in boringly long hours of anti-social time commitment.
Obviously most of us can't but apparently some can.
Good luck to them methinks.

I have to agree with FAFH's last post.

"If you think you can, or think you can't, your right"-Henry Ford

elflem knows

'Why on earth would someone want to quit a good job to do this full time? '


'Fraid i'm no good at anything else...and i'm not that good at this either

I can't believe there isn't a lot of bvllshit on here.  According to about 90% of the contributors on this thread they seem to be making £1000,0000 on here each. Now there is nobody on here telling porky pies is there, are you sure?

You're just jealous NM.
Get your act together man.
Be positive.
Porky pies?
On the BF forum?
Never in a million.

no moves 07 Jan 11 00:04
I can't believe there isn't a lot of bvllshit on here.  According to about 90% of the contributors on this thread they seem to be making £1000,0000 on here each. Now there is nobody on here telling porky pies is there, are you sure?


Provided I don't take a loss, I am happy.  My target is 50p a day.

Are you content with that no moves?

What do you mean Fine as Frog's Hair?  I'm making  a million on here as well, isn't everybody? Well according to this thread they are.

50p a day LOL  [:(][:(] Would not cover your ISP bill

Alex has always been considered as slightly over ambitious on here.
So I would not follow his example too closely, as it might just lead to financial ruin.

50p a day is a target and only a target.  Who needs big targets? If you hit the target do you put your feet up?  If you don't hit the target do you chase?

50p a day is fine for me.

These questions don't exclude you even if you have a 50p target though. And targeting, I do it, but it's a bank killer.

Daily targets are a no no.
But that doesn't mean that targets per se are bad.
After all you have got to know where you're going inorder to know if and when you're there.
Targets should be based on number of games played, which in turn should bear some intelligent mathematical nexus with the level of probabilities you are primarilly wagering on.

kef4o
Your point is presumably that a 50p target can be as dangerous as a 500 quid target, if you're chasing in any form and manner.
If so, I wholeheartedly agree.

Yes, basically. But targets are bad anyway imo b/c they normally come with a certain time constraint and that's just unneeded pressure.

Presumably, that's what pros would feel and I doubt it's doing them any good, unless they need a motivation like not having money to pay the bills in order to get the best out of themselves.

Professionals bet on race by race, match by match basis. If there is
little to bet on, then they, and I, have a day off. Daily, weekly, etc
targets are a nonsense.

i love this so much that its 3:00am and im reading this

i love the challenge, the difficulty, the evolution, the variation, the independence betting allows, with also some big "hates" in the mixture

Futility is thinking you are an acomplished person because you have a paid job where you know that you are riding on the back of others or something, where you know that what matters is that final payday at the end of the month and the bonus by christmas,etc, etc., and at best your fight is making others believe that you really are interested in all the BS that surrounds you.
You know that in the end you really dont like what you do but you do it anyway because you need to pay your bills, you know because you dont like what you do, you will never put that extra effort into it that will make the difference between an exciting thing or a boring to death one.
This futility affects i would safely say 98% of people, so, having done both of them in my life i can safely say, i love what i do now and i feel fortunate that i can do it

Lusi
Sounds just like the sort of philosophising that most do in the middle of night, either p!ssed or unable to sleep.
Butwhen they get up in the morning, theycarry on as usual doing nothing about it till it's all too late in life.
I'm glad to hear that you got off your butt and did something different in your life. I wish you all the best for trying.

LOL FAFH

no i wasnt pissed, its just my way of seeing how people in general just surrender their dreams and aspirations to pay the bills, society tells you that "this is the way to go" but as you want to feel included you start to make decisions based on what others expect you to rather than what you really want to do and from then on you will never achieve your true potential (of course many don't have that luxury of chosing)
i started doing what i do when at a certain time in my life i said to myself "feck them, i dont know exactly what i want but i surely know what i dont want to do" and from then on i had a free mind to search and eventually find it, simples

Follow your bliss and the universe will open doors where there were only walls

Good posts, Lusitano. Do you mind me asking how long you've been full time on here and what is your MO (programming, stat analysis, etc)?

Lusitano makes a very pertinent observation.

Other peoples opinions about what is right for you, especially concerning betting are worthless. They will undoubtedly be contaminated with preconceived ideas about "gambling" & will serve you no purpose whatsoever.

I share the same boat but conformity isn't as bad, and feeling special b/c you're not conforming is wrong imo.

Of course it's bad if it stops you being you.

And it's bad if you end up married with kids because of it..

What I really don't like is people who feel they are special b/c they are different or nonconforming. It reaks of selfcenteredness and "I'm better than you." attitude. Who are you tell that others are unhappy with their job and not putting enough effort etc.? Also, if you think that lack of effort does not count for people who love what they're doing, you are deluded.

Married with kids might be exactly what you want to be. Nothing wrong with that.

Haha, you caught me.

kef4o     08 Jan 11 13:45 
What I really don't like is people who feel they are special b/c they are different or nonconforming. It reaks of selfcenteredness and "I'm better than you." attitude. Who are you tell that others are unhappy with their job and not putting enough effort etc.? Also, if you think that lack of effort does not count for people who love what they're doing, you are deluded.
_______________________

I think it's harder if you non conform since the 'system' sways heavily in favour of folk who do conform (atleast as far as job prospects go ) ,therefore if you can think of a way to make something pay away from the norm  then i think it's something to be proud of .

Trying to make a success of something  anywhere ,whether it be on here ,e bay, running  a business ...its pretty bloody hard going.

However ,whether anyone is better than anyone else is open to debate.

That is well the case coachbuster, no need to be smug about it though. That's what I have problem with.

Some people like the security of a regular income.

Absolutely . Everyone in honest employment is a vital piece in the jigsaw puzzle of life.

Absolutely. Everyone is a vital piece in the jigsaw puzzle of life. [;)]

Every jigsaw puzzle is a vital part of life.

Everyone is a piece in the jigsaw puzzle of life.

Not many, if any, are vital :)

kef4o     08 Jan 11 13:45
What I really don't like is people who feel they are special b/c they are different or nonconforming.


Dont get me wrong kef4o, i dont feel special but im glad im fortunate, fortunate enough to know that i have never conformed to whatever others told me it was the way to go

and like the man that was pissed at God and asked,
"God why dont i ever win?? why?? why??"
God answered "Son, at least buy the ticket"

my best experiences in life came from going against the mainstream or if you prefer against "the safe way" or "the conforming way"

im fortunate because i had that choice and intuition to know what was important but im well aware that many dont have the choice, so what i say goes against those..the ones that have it

Now let's talk about RESILIENCE

Resilence is what you dont think you have but when confronted with the harsh reality, you will soon find out that you have it in loads (unless you're a total loser), that resilience can make the hardest situation seem not that bad...thats a defence mechanism inate to us humans and most use it throughout their lives and like i said 98% of the working people use it every day

[;)]

kef4o
Date Joined: 05 Sep 07
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When: 08 Jan 11 13:45
What I really don't like is people who feel they are special b/c they are different or nonconforming. It reaks of selfcenteredness and "I'm better than you." attitude. Who are you tell that others are unhappy with their job and not putting enough effort etc.? Also, if you think that lack of effort does not count for people who love what they're doing, you are deluded.

A definition of 'special': of a distinct or particular kind or character

As nonconformists are by their very essence a minority, you could certainly call them special. Not saying they are better though. A lot of 'nonconformists' like to be different together. Straight out of the life of Brian: Think for yourselves!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQqq3e03EBQ

All a bit of word play

I am non-conformist and better than everyone else.  So it is possible...

When I said special, I meant it as in superior.

If you feel fulfulled though, good for you. Just don't think one can't feel this way if one has a regular job.

regular is the key word yet you seem to love it

Sorry, I don't follow you, Lusitano.

thats obvious kef4o

I never have much to say these days, but this is a gem of a thread.

yes dave b and another gem is having 60 replies in 9 years.. you dont talk much do you??

thats less than one reply per month

talk about discipline

Ha... don't believe the stats do you Lusitano71?

[;)]

Ask questions, particularly the question "why?". Ask everyone (not just the so-called experts), and try to answer your own questions as well. When you get an answer, try to think of exceptions, and then ask yourself why those exceptions exist. Never be satisfied until you arrive at an answer that has very few exceptions.


Look for selfish motives.Some people will become very annoyed, and perhaps even offended, that you're questioning something they accept without question. Whenever people want you to think a certain way, it's because it benefits them in some way. But that benefit is not always obvious or direct. Many times, people want you to adopt their perspective because it makes them feel more comfortable and secure (safety in numbers). Sometimes, people's beliefs make it easier for them to feel like a good person. These people don't want those beliefs challenged because it's as if you were challenging them personally - it seems to them that you are questioning their "good-person-hood". Sometimes, people are trying to look out for your best interest, and truly want you to be in step with their beliefs without looking into their statements any further. And sometimes, people just want to be seen as authoritative and trusted, so they're personally invested in whether or not you buy into the things they say. That's why they take it personally if you don't automatically buy in.


People who don't think for themselves are often scared of disagreeing with others, and scared of "rocking the boat". A freethinker, on the other hand, bases their self worth on something other than what people think of them. These people may still experience rejection, discomfort, and anguish, but they will continue to think for themselves.

Do the research. Look into the statements made by others. You'll be amazed at how many times you'll find lots of evidence to contradict the statements of others. Yet, these people spout this erroneous information and never question the accuracy or truth of what they're saying. Use Google or go to the library, and search for information to prove or disprove the statements made. Remember where you get the "evidence" from. Be aware that, just because you saw it in a book or on the internet, that alone does not make it the truth.

Live outside your comfort zone. Not only will some people be very perturbed by your refusal to take their statements at face value, but you will also learn to question your own assumptions, and that can make you feel lost and confused, like walking into a dark room. It takes courage to face uncertainty. Be Bold.

Beware paralysis by analysis. When you're thinking for yourself, you're taking full responsibility for your life and your actions, because you can't say you were trusting someone else's judgment. This can be very nerve-wracking, and lead to excessive self-doubt. Remember that thinking for yourself doesn't mean being sure. It means making decisions based on your own analysis, rather than someone else's. There will always be some degree of uncertainty, no matter what, that you must learn to accept and cope with.

Good post, Frankie. How do you make your money on here, out of interest? Not asking for any trade secrets, just general idea!

Yes ,agree good post Frankie..

Winners in most walks of life actually,do the opposite to what the majority think.

Do you know why they call him Franky F**king Four Fingers?

I've just formed some sort of image.

http://www.wikihow.com/Think-for-Yourself

Nice one Franky

Good Spot T2R

I do the opposite to all the winners on here ...





I lose money,hence the nickname.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bLTjL5HY9o8&feature=related

I was hoping to find the "Do you know why they call him Franky F**king Four Fingers?"

But this was all they had.

Seriously now, very good information in that post Frankie.

For whose own good do people want you to do things or conform, yours or theirs?

How do you know that's good information Dave?

Only because it conforms in a way with my own outlook on life. I've always walked to the beat of my own drum & the content above kind of rings true with me.

That said, there is no way to know for sure if your own outlook on life is correct.

But so long as it is correct for you that is what counts. Of course that applies to how you bet too.

If that rings true they you share the views of the author, and so are not a free thinking. [;)]

But as that is the first time I have read this I at least arrived at my conclusions independently!

"Yes! We're all individuals!"

Single man: "I'm not different!"

Supply and demand.

A bet that is in popular demand will usually contract in price.

Jeez I've made plenty of stupid bets ... But you can't put s**t back in the donkey

Arsenic was in high demand during the 1800s for use in snuff.

Franky

I was just looking around that wikihow site and stumbled across this....

http://www.wikihow.com/Survive-a-Long-Fall

Haven't laughed so much in ages.

I'm glad we bumped in to each other earlier on otherwise I doubt I'd ever have read it.

http://www.wikihow.com/Survive-in-Dangerous-Times

How to Survive in Dangerous Times
#14 Keep a flashlight and pair of shoes near your bed so they can be easily used in the event of an emergency.

What dangerous times were they planning for an earthquake?

http://www.wikihow.com/Do-a-Running-Catleap

Tips Start practicing between ledges that have the ground close between them so that if you fall, you won't fall very far.

Anybody who says he walks to the beat of a different drummer probably isn't.
It ain't that simple.

Froggy, things never are with you.

Suffice it to say you know absolutely nothing about me, either as a person or what I may or may not be doing on betfair, so you can keep your preconceived opinions about what I probably am to yourself.

We knew you would say that.

I like your style Mr Angry, you've made me laugh this evening & you don't get that very often on here

Yep Mr Angry is very astute and very cynical. I like both characteristics.
Dave E
Don't take things so personally.
The fact that I can get your goat means in itself that you are not all that different from the mob. You just think you are.
Real contrarians are so off the wall that they never even understand when you're having a go at them.

Froggy, that is nonsense. The fact that I have a short fuse has nothing to do whatsoever to do with my databases, spreadsheets or the work & research I have put into them.

Again you presume that I am not that different from the mob with no real basis to your thinking apart from your preconceived ideas of what I may be like.

Of course someone who is of a contrarian nature would realise that someone was having a go at them. Honestly, you do talk crap sometimes.

Well you know what to do then Dave.
I'm just being contrary. You should understand that.

Dave, can I call you Dave, nope? OK Dave listen, stop being so pi$$ed off, if you were making money you wouldn't be seething, relax and follow Money Tree's tips you'll soon be where the rest of the forum are.

I repeat Dave.
True contrarians are usually impervious to criticism.
They have to be.
It essentially always comes with the territory.
Most people think they're wrong and worse than that quite often think they're idiots.
I don't think you're necessarily wrong or an idiot, so ipso facto you can't be a contrarian.
Nice argument eh ?

I've hit upon the perfect solution. Froggy I'm blocking you. You add nothing.

mesmerised, again just because I have a short fuse doesn't mean anything about my account or anything else for that matter. Thanks for the MT steer, but I'm ok thanks.

You have a short fuse for a reason, you need that seeing to, and don't get bent out of shape at reading that, do something like spend less time here and more time exercising, that will get rid of your stress, sitting down at a monitor no stop is giving you a headache. I only post here early morning and sometime late evening like now, short bursts.

Truth is I've put about 12 hours homework in today, I'm tired & that is why I flew a bit quickly.

You are right, I probably do need to relax a bit more.

I'm renaming this thread the futility of posting

I don't Bayes I think I'm good therapy for a lot of seethers

know*

Correct Bayes. Time out for me I think.

Wise move Dave.
The blocking that is.
All the best of luck in the future in going against the flow.
Nice if you can do it.

@ Duncan Idaho...Married with kids because of conformity was my point..You must've seen the poor chaps being dragged around the shops with a pram and a wife..They'd rather do that through some sense of belonging, than risk being alone..I do hear however, that some do this by choice..

Btw the simple answer to the OP is that there is nothing futile about betting if you're winning.
Otherwise it is totally futile, except perhaps for the entertainment value.
After all, some excitement is a necessary part of everybody's life surely.

Betting for a living is just another business.  Those who can calculate the risk reward ratio correctly tend to make money.  A few people seem to be disappering up their own Jacksies.  There's nothing special about it.