General Betting
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Is anyone interested in Goals to SHOTS ON TARGET RATIOS? why you should lay unquoted in every Man
Is anyone interested in Goals to SHOTS ON TARGET RATIOS? why you should lay unquoted in every Man
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Is the spread the flaw or the strength of the system jonny? Don't you just work on basis that the averages will work out e.g. team averages 16 shots-4 sot-1 goal and at half time it is 8-0-0 then you have to assume 8-4-1...or am I missing something?
Have to say there are lots of variables as well to cater for e.g. sya you go for 19 games before you start betting then any given team loses their "star" strikers or its the last 5 games of season and some teams have something to play for and others don't etc. Like you say do it in running for a while and see...I'd do overs/unders as well as unquoted. |
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Chelsea 17(9) v ASTON VILLA 12(7)
Chelsea 0.25*9=2.25 goals Average goals scored at home 2.11 Villa 0.12*7=0.84 goals Average goals scored away 0.55. unquoted 4.6 . Wigan 13(7) v Newcastle 11(6) Wigan 0.11*7=0.77 goals Average goals scored at home 1 Newc 0.35*6=2.1 goals Average goals scored away 0.88 think 6 shots on target is skewed to home games as dont have break down for home/away average but 0.35 away is correct. unquoted 14.5. so if they are AVERAGE games then we have Chelsea 2/3 -villa 0 and wigan 0/1 - newc 1/2 (may be too high) on paper unquoted in Chelsea games looks about right and wigan games looks rather short but this is of no interest as we want to see how the games develop. |
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marky i am hoping that the spread of ideas will make this work better.
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http://www.sportinglife.com/football/news/
is a site that do in running stats too eg STAT ATTACK 1 Shots On Target 11 1 Shots Off Target 7 7 Fouls (Conceded) 9 4 Corners 5 3 Yellow Cards 1 0 Red Cards 0 |
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Villa average goals conceded away. 2.44
not a game to lay unquoted at random. |
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re calculated newc away and it is 4 4 4 3 5 2 2 4 4 SOT so average is 3.55 so 1.25 goals(0.35*3.55)
wigan 1 newcastle 1 looks very possible. |
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Sunderland have the best goal to Sot ratio home and away which they showed again today
4 shots on target and 3 goals. this was why it was such a shock when they did 31(11) v blackpool and 0 goal. should have scored 5.  |
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back tomorrow to call the expected score as the game progresses.
could be fun. |
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before i go off i will calculate barca at home.
rude not to when unquoted is odds on back in a mo with stats. |
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sunderland v blackpool games merely help to work out averages. On such games you will lose as you can't win them all when you are taking a (half?) season long view.
Games like that happen and you know in your blood early doors that "its going to be one of those days" for one or both teams..goodness knows how you factor such gut instinct into hard edged stats though  You will also need to work out your betting strategy as the game progresses ie when is the optimum time/price to lump on...and get out if necessary...its no concidence that most profit for the firms happens in running. |
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barca home
17(9) 0 0.36*9=3.24 goals 16(5) 1 0.36*5=1.8 goals 27(10)1 0.36*10=3.6 goals 13(8) 2 0.36*8=2.88 goals 18(9) 5 0.36*9=3.24 goals 16(5) 3 0.36*5=1.8 goals 15(6) 5 0.36*6=2.16 goals 22(9)5 0.36*9=3.24 goals Average is 18 shots.(22 goals so 2.75 goals per game). Average SOT is 7.625 average. 0.36 i think is the figure we need for SOT ratio.22goals/61 sot looks like it is impossible to predict during a game if barca will score 1 or 5  |
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if we just look at last 4 games then we have 29 shots on goal SOT and 18 goals.
this gives a shot ratio of 18/29 of 0.62. will have a look at real adrid 3.25 goals average at home 25(7) 1 0.39*7 2.73 goals 20(7) 3 0.39*7 2.73 goals 17(8) 6 0.39*8 3.12 goals 16(9) 6 0.39*9 3.51 22(13) 20.39*13 5 16(6) 5 0.39*6 2.34 19(11)2 0.39*11 4.29 10(5)1 0.39*5 1.95 145 shots 66SOT 26 GOALS SOT RATIO=0.39.Average shots 18 per game. |
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yes george i agree with what you are saying.
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Keep going jonny - I'm sure you'll get there.
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Rangers at home average 15(9) SOT ratio 0.23 so 0.23*9 2.07 goals at home.
celtic away average 17(8) SOT ratio 0.2 so 0.2*8 1.6 goals away |
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Am I missing something or is this just a complicated way of going about things? For example, if Man U average 8 shots per game and 1 goal per 4 shots, isn't that just the same thing as saying they average 2 goals per game?
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shots and shots on target(SOT)
two seperate entities. |
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ok will do Rangers v Celtic In running
it's 15(9) 0.23 v 17(8) 0.2 |
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Ok, if they average 16 shots, 8 shots on targets, and 1 goal per 4 shots on target, isn't that just a complicated way of saying they score 2 goals a game?
Also, isn't it more relevant what the defence is like - some defences may allow 10 shots on target per game, some only 2 |
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Ft score should be rangers 2 celtic 1.6
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unquoted taken a walk now 15.0
was as low as 11. |
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howard will have a look at that later
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6' rangers 2(1)
no sign of 4+ goals. |
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rangers 3(1)
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10 mins gone
and current score should be Rangers 0.23 celtic 0 |
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15' 3(1) rangers 0(0) celtic
projection is 1-0 ft i would be backing unders.... |
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1-0 is fav correct score
not a surprise |
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20' 4(1) v 0(0)
if celtic score 2 or more i will run naked down the road. 0.23 v 0 at the mo projection 1-0 |
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midway through first half and both teams well under average SOT
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score remains 0.23 v 0 on Sot
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celtic first shot off target.
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It is jolly kind of you to keep everyone updated on each kick of the Rangers v Celtic game.
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project ft is now 0.92 v 0
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30 mins 4(1) v 1(0) both teams well under Sot ans shots
current score should be 0.23 v 0 with ft prohection 0.7 v 0 chances of celtic scoring look slim on the Sot. |
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35 gone 4(1) v 2(0)
projection now 0.6 v 0 |
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40 4(1) 2(0)
interesting that 0-2 holding steady at 24-28 with Sot should be around 100/1 |
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after 40 projection is 0.5 v 0
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4(1) v 2(0)
projection ft 0.46 v 0 it works you could have backed unders with confidence etc etc etc..... |
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over to chelsea now.
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