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Is anyone interested in Goals to SHOTS ON TARGET RATIOS? why you should lay unquoted in every Man
Is anyone interested in Goals to SHOTS ON TARGET RATIOS? why you should lay unquoted in every Man
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THIS THREAD HAS JUST MADE MAN UNITED CERTS TO SCORE 4 V WEST BROM TOMORROW
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i agree.
I have that feeling as well. |
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I just googled Paul Steele Penetration Ratings:
You create a new scoreline and then a new league table. Goals = ((Shots On Target x 2) + Shots Off Target + Corners) / 10 You then add a goal on to the winning team. For an upcoming match you calculate: Points/Games Played Subtracting the Away team Pts per game from the home Pts per game to get the rating. He tested 5 variations: A - 3pts for a win, 1 for a draw B - 2pts for a win, 1 for a draw C - 3pts for a HW, 4pts for an AW, 1pt for a Home Draw, 2pts for an Away Draw D - 2pts for a HW, 3pts for an AW, 1pt for a draw E - 3pts for a HW, 5pts for an AW, 1pt for a Home Draw, 2pts for an Away Draw E was the best at predicting HW (66.77%) C was the best at predicting AW (46.96%) this was over 700 predictions |
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Man U went down to 3.9 on uq after goal so a lay wins again.
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this works.
Sunderland 2-0 and only 2 shots on goal , am at mother in law so will look at shot/sot in detail later, but i layed unquoted when SUNDERLAND were 2-0 up. There was no indication that they would score 4. They were 3(2) i think after the second goal. was out to lunch during west brom game but note man utd did 6(4). They were never going to score 4 goals in that game. Was watching the Liverpool game and they were had loads of shots today. Well above average. My expectation at 0-1 was that they were going to score. My expectation was during the City game as well that they were going to score a second half goal but their shot count was high and Sot low so maybe we should pay more attention to SOT. I will detail all the games later. Anyway in all the games not one team looked like scoring 4. Man city unquoted was short, sunderland unquoted went to 2.66 after 2nd goal . spurs unquoted was short before ko, and man utd went short after early goal. |
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ps Blackburn overs away is now around 82%
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Man utd 6(4) ()=SOT-SHOTS ON TARGET gives an expectation of just over 1 goal with SOT.
lIVERPOOL 26(5) AVERAGE AROUND 13(7). Before they scored they had around 11 shots. shots= just over 3 goals expectation and SOT just over 1 goal expectation. Man City 22(3) shot expectation gives 2.75 goals and SOT gives 0.75 of a goal. City above average shots but well below average for shot on target to shot ratio. Stoke8(1) give shot expectation just under 1 goal and SOT no goals. Sunderland 14(4) shot expectation = 1.75 goals and SOT= just over 1 goal. Spurs 15(5) gives shot expectation= 1.5 goals and SOT= 0.75 of a goal. Westham13(7) gives SOT=1.9 goals and shot= 1.6 goals In the Liverpool game before they scored there were was a strong indication that they should score as they were well above their average for shots at ht and if their shots had been more accurate then they would have got 3 or 4. |
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Arsenal average around 17(9) and at ht it is 8(4). There is no indication that they will score 4+ goals.
Unquoted went to as low as 4.5 after the goal. The indication is that if they do their average 17(9) then they will score 2.55 goals for shot expectation and 1.8 for SOT. |
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birmingham leak goals 46-60 mins so i think boat missed now on laying unquoted.
although unlikely it is very likely that arsenal will be 2-0 up on 60 mins.... |
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and arsenal score on 58'
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now unquoted is 5.6 to lay and nothing to suggest that arsenal will score 4+
but Arsenal are dangerous because of their high average shots .... |
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they are bang on to do their average
so expectation is 2.55 goals. |
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0-3 and 13(7). if you have layed unquoted and not greened out then this is trouble. 2.2 to lay.
still no indication they will score 4+ but i would not be laying 2.2 as the risk is greate rthen the reward here. |
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75' 14(7) bang on average.
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16(9)
DANGER DANGER... |
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SOT OF 9 = 2.25 GOALS FOR ARSENAL.
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17(10) 83'
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18(10)
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SOT= 2.5 GOALS NOW FOR (10)
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18(10) 88'
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19(11)
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SOT 11= 0.25*11=2.75 GOALS
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FT 19(11)
SOT=0.25*11=2.75 GOALS SO nearly bang on. arsenal did slightly above their sot average today. i said at home time when 8(4) that in line to do average 17(9) which is 2.55 goals(shots) and 2.25 sot (said 1.8 but got that wrong) Arsenal average 0.25 goals to shot ratio so 0.25*9=2.25. and 0.25*11 =2.75. I think this has cracked it. hang on i have cracked it. |
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£7
2.10 £260 3-0 2.12 £110 2.14 £696 2.16 £5,623 2.18 £2,744 2.20 £3,329 2.22 £1,089 2.24 £1,600 2.26 £3,484 2.28 £914 2.30 £2,663 2.32 £1,746 2.34 £524 2.36 £771 2.38 £1,263 2.40 £868 2.42 £79 2.44 £542 2.46 £115 2.48 £541 2.50 £751 2.52 £18 2.54 £31 2.56 £268 2.58 £205 2.60 £472 2.64 £6 2.66 £222 2.68 £39 2.70 £388 2.72 £59 2.74 £7 2.76 £244 2.78 £15 2.80 £66 2.82 £99 2.84 £83 2.86 £282 2.88 £258 2.90 £83 2.92 £83 2.94 £527 2.96 £52 2.98 £103 3.00 £804 3.05 £219 3.10 £293 3.15 £12 3.20 £24 3.25 £92 3.30 £44 3.35 £137 3.40 £426 3.45 £30 3.50 £56 3.55 £3 3.60 £302 3.65 £15 3.70 £46 3.75 £96 3.80 £475 3.85 £117 3.90 £7 3.95 £43 4.00 £384 4.20 £857 4.30 £892 4.40 £514 4.50 £362 1-0 4.60 £855 4.70 £699 4.80 £1,623 4.90 £1,958 5.00 £599 5.10 £2,133 5.20 £1,128 5.30 £530 5.40 £552 5.50 £533 5.60 £268 5.70 £413 5.80 £305 5.90 £276 6.00 £900 6.20 £1,331 6.40 £940 6.60 £372 6.80 £428 7.00 £974 7.20 £413 7.40 £266 7.60 £170 7.80 £410 8.00 £1,189 8.20 £91 8.40 £185 8.60 £935 8.80 £6,011 9.00 £14,852 9.20 £9,927 9.40 £3,430 9.60 £924 9.80 £469 10.00 £3,917 10.50 £1,315 11.00 £1,599 11.50 £133 12.00 £551 12.50 £103 13.00 £86 13.50 £47 14.00 £232 14.50 £252 15.00 £164 15.50 £74 16.00 £45 16.50 £0 17.00 £454 17.50 £142 18.00 £27 18.50 £0 19.00 £6 20.00 £8 21.00 £68 25.00 £15 28.00 £0 29.00 £12 32.00 £0 34.00 £40 38.00 £0 40.00 £21 44.00 £49 48.00 £9 50.00 £0 55.00 £2 60.00 £20 100.00 £2 200.00 £3 280.00 £2 |
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good luck to you jonny
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Jonny good stuff. For years there has been a pattern of games with high number of first half goals and then none/one in second half. I think market has wised up to this now.
Do your stats explain or merely reflect this pattern i.e. once a team have had a lot of shots and goals in first half they have simply "used up" their average for that match? Usual explanations are "teams can't sustain intensity" for 90 mins or a winning team "takes foot off gas in second half". Or is what I'm saying irrelevant and I'm missing the point (likely!) |
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still not sure myself george but it appears that when there are early goals or a cluster of goals that a team may get ahead of their goal expectation but the amont of shots and shots on goal are saying that the goals will slow down to allow it to fall in line with the average expectation.
does that make any sense? if a team are firing in shots like lIVERPOOL today tehn the expectation is that they are going to score. at ht they were behind their goal expectation. also like man city today more shots then average but a much lower ratio shots/shots on target so no surprise they did not score loads, but they should have. |
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and Arsenal did have the most shots on target today (11)
west brom (3) man utd (4) liverpool (5) bolton (4) city(3) blackpool (5) stoke(1) everton(2) sunderland (4) balckburn (0)-they were not going to score if they played 900mins. spurs(5) fulham (2) west ham (7) wolves (3) arsenal (11) birmingham (1) arsenal and west ham were slightly over their average today. |
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and Arsenal do average the most amount of SOT in the league as of end of Nov 2010.
so no surprise there. |
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and guess what, Blackburn average the least and birmingham the second least
and what happened today |
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Its probably all over my head and I don't have Sky so not sure how/where you even get the in running stats for any given match...or do you just play the televised ones? Link/source?
Anyway you asked for comments/thoughts so here are some. 1. Where earlier you said: so we can agree that if you layed unquoted this season in every game but not involving BOLTON VILLA BLACKPOOL CHELSEA ARSENAL MAN CITY that you would have made a profit.Laugh With any system hindsight is a wonderful thing! I know you are a bit tongue in cheek here but in reality seems to me that each season you would need to produce new averages e.g. squad changes, promoted teams etc. Or do you risk previous years stats? How far into the season do you gather stats before you start betting? 2. Might there be a quick and dirtier system where say you come up with rolling league averages and instead of the unquoted market go for the unders/overs instead? Not sure myself what I mean here just throwing stuff into the pot |
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Arsenal 30(12) 6 v blackpool Sot expectation = 3goals
Arsenal 22(11)4 v Bolton 2.75 goals Arsenal 20(7) 4 v Villa 1.75 goals here are the 3 Arsenal unquoted. today was 19(11) 2.75 goals * 0.25 sot to goals average. so this game could easily have ended unquoted even though Sot says 2.75. |
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ok george i am using espn webiste for shot/sot updates. there must be a better way.
yes i agree must be a way of exploiting under overs with the expectation of a goal(S) or lack of them. and yes should wait for a few weeks into the season so shot/sot average is established. delighted you are asking me questions. i have not got all the answers. i am sure the top traders are using bots and live data feeds to exploit this informationa already. |
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As always its how you use information and maybe there's an in with the relegation market. Only wolves odds on now and above you refer to blackburn and birmingham having lowest sot ratio...who knows with these two?
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if we go back to Chelsea V Sunderland 0-3
14(3) v 21(9) we get 0.5 goals v 3.95 goals on SOT at ht the sot was saying sunderland are going to score more. think they were up to around 1.75 goals at ht. anyway i have to prove this for in real play from now on. In the Arsenal game i was trying to calculate the SOT /goal expectation from ht and predict how many goals arenal would score at ft during ht. 4 sot at ht gives 0.25*4 = 1 goal. no reason to suggest more then average in the game so 9*0.25=2.25 goals. and 11ft gives 2.75 goals at 3-0 arsenal moved slightly ahead of their expected total goals. |
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and you would expect that if they had 16+ Sot then they would score 4+
16*0.25=4. but be aware that they have done 12, 11 and 7 and scored 4+ |
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as of end nov 2010
wigan had lowest goal to SOT ratio AT HOME and west ham away which they improved at fulham 4 SOT AND 3 GOALS. |
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I will try and read the games IR tomorrow and see how we go just using SOT.
spread of Sot may be the flaw. say a team do 0 sot in first half and 10 in second.  anyway lets see what we can see from this. |
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A serious question jonny and please don't take offense - if you have found a quality edge, why the hell are you sharing it on here?
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