HOW DO YOU FIND AN EDGE?

kilmarnock v arbroath .( killy top league , arb bottom e.g )
 

killy have their 3 main players missing

the equivalent , in that league , to drogba , ````````````````cech  and gerrard  .
but are priced at 1/6 cos they're toppa the league .

You could bet in markets where favourites have historically shown a profit.  QPR are 1.34 to be promoted this year, it was stated earlier on today that 17 out of the last nineteen leaders of the championship at the turn of the year went on to be promoted suggesting the real odds should be around, 1.13 to go up.

Arbitrage

It may be a good idea to bet when the market seems to be going the other way, when people desperately want to be laying a bet possibly it could be a good idea to be a backer in order to get fancy odds on a particular runner, this of course remains a controversial and speculative idea but it isn't without possibilities as any runner must be value as long as you get big enough odds.

Start in the middle and work you way outwards.

Research, more research and analyse.

Penalty runners - how many favs win. Does Sir Mark Prescott show a profit in this remit considering 98% of his penalty runners in 3yo+ hcps start fav?

Horses that have had a break (50 days+)- disregard April - May months as they have highest ratio
Why is the 3yo+ Hcp win ratio at Southwell 50% less than other AW tracks for break runners?
Why Carlisle has the fewest wins in flat hcps for break runners.

Lady Rosamunde (yesterday) started odds on after only run and a 54 day break. How many winners have their been in 2yo mdns by a filly taking on the colts under those conditions? (very few)

Superb thanks guys, this time next year i'll be millionaire rodney

Perhaps we should qualify what type of edge you mean; there's the 'selection' edge and there's the 'volume/margin' edge. The former is most likely the one you refer to i.e. are my selections more profitable than yours? The latter is out of reach to most of us i.e. by applying big number crunching systems across many thousands of bets, tiny margins can be made. Let's forget this one for now.

With regard to finding a 'selection' edge, after many years of developing systems based on stats and other generally available information, I have come to realise that the availability of this info is the very reason why systems don't work long term, therefore data based systems will not give you an edge.

If that is true, then there can only be an edge when one varies from the statistic based logical selection process. This can be done in any number of ways e.g. lay every statistic based logical selection instead of backing them. However, for the same reason it may succeed for a while, failure is inevitable as others begin to follow the same path.

You could argue that by interpreting data differently you will gain an edge; highly unlikely that you will be the only one with that thought and with the resulting selection.

The conclusion I draw from this (my experience) is that the single most important element in a selection process is gut feel. Some may be familiar with the theory of 'thin slicing'. Essentially this means that after many hours/days/weeks/years of studying any given topic, you will know enough for your instinct to play a valuable part in decision making. How many times have you witnessed an outsider winning and thought to yourself 'I had a feeling that would win'. This may be due, in part, to your sub-conscious interpretation of the event i.e. your gut feel.

As with every other selection process, it is unlikely you will get it right every time; for many there is simply not enough 'data' in the sub-conscious for it to produce meaningful output. But if the percentage of profit making punters is really around 2%, then doesn't that tell you that the others are taking the wrong approach?

So in summary I would say your edge is you; so long as there is enough data in you to start with.

Don't mention "gut feel" Relentless.  You will be ridiculed.

You need to put the time in , and have a 'gamblers brain' imo .

Some further info on 'thin-slicing'.......

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blink_%28book%29

Indeed James, some folk simply bet on the name

Ah yes the old "gut feel" conundrum. I'm sure there are people out there who bet just off gut feel and make a good living from it. This is their edge. Likewise I'm sure there are also people out there who don't have this gut feeling but can also make a very good profit from other strategies and hard work.

I assume from your post that as you state that you are looking for a change then you are probably operating at a loss or at best break-even. Also as you honestly refer to yourself a mug-punter then your current approach is probably that of betting primarily on your instincts. If this is the case then it's probably wise not to rely on gut instinct as for all those that can profit from it there are also those that completely fail and if the approach you are currently using is not working then why stick with it. No offence intended to all who are able to make a profit from their instincts alone.

alot of people think they have an edge and really they dont. if you want to make money betting theres no one secret system that works across the board.

the fundamental concept in sports betting is to be able to know the true price of a market and to know when a market price is wrong and place your bet. Try to think about outcomes in terms of percentages, (dont just look at a price and think "i fancy that!")

whatever sports you focus on, try to focus on specific leagues and specialise in it, look at historic prices using sites like oddsportal, look at historic stats on sites like soccernet, and finally dont be sucked into bets because of short term form and team news, usually markets overreact to this stuff and there is actually often value on the opposite side to what you might expect.

leave the key under the mat - cheers

no moves Date Joined: 24 Feb 04
Add contact | Send message When: 29 Dec 10 18:33 I am not sure about relentless's imput in this discussion he suggests you should study form then just disregard it, because others will have came to the same conclusion as you if they have read the same information rendering the whole form analysis thing to be useless.

But what is this magic winner finding idea that relentless relies on, he calls it "gut feeling". If a person doesn't rely on past results to determine a bet surely a much shorter phrase could be used for this technique "guessing".

Is relentless in profit with this idea i'd be very suprised if he was.
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I have to take issue with this; I'm saying the opposite - that you DO have to take into consideration ALL the form but unfortunately your conscious mind isn't capable of doing so, hence your more powerful sub-conscious must be allowed to come into play. I'm not saying 'don't do your homework'- I'm saying that on top of your homework, let your individual element be the deciding factor. That's your edge.

Guessing is  not to be underestimated; however, I'm  more likely to back the guess of an old timer than a novice; who would you back? And why?

Without looking at any body elses odds, work out your own odds for an event. Then look at betfair's prices.

Back any selections that are longer odds than yours and/or lay any odds that are shorter than yours.
See how you do over time. If you're making a loss & it's not just down to bad luck or a bad run, re-evaluate your procedures and try again.

Repeat until an edge is achieved, or you give up, or you go bust.

The single most important factor for me in 27 years betting is getting the staking right, closly followed by discipline.

If you've been winning for 27 years, you likely have an edge without knowing why or where. This is the "Gut feel" some people talk of. I've checked some winning "Gut feel" players in poker and it turns out they're doing the maths just fine, they just don't think in numbers. It's almost impossible for the numerically minded to see how that could ever work, but it certainly does, and to a surprising degree of accuracy.

Staking is important. IMO discipline is a word made up by losers though, it's meaningless unless for some reason you want to have big bets when you don't have an edge, which would be a rather odd thing to do if you're a winner.

That said, I've had the discipline argument on here enough times that I wonder if people who use it think it means something different to what I think it means.
It seems to have a meaning of "Not betting when you shouldn't". That for me isn't lack of discipline, it's compulsive gambling

with regards staking

anyone betting over , and even underweight needs to adjust. it may take a little time

but that's just common sense.

people are frightened by the world 'discipline' imo



with regards 'finding an edge'

think about it more as ' making an edge'

specialise in a certain area of a sport (espec in horse racing ) or certain markets.

learn them like there's no tomorrow

too many unscientific approaches have been put forward here

unless you keep meticulous records over several years (covering at least 50000 events), you cannot even start to claim an edge. Even if your in profit this should not convince you that your system is infallible.

Many elements make up the strategy for the possibility of defining an edge - only a few have been mentioned here, and 'gut feel' has too much dependency on luck.

If 'gut feel' is part of your strategy, I would be most surprised if you really have an edge