General Betting
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Hi guys i'm a mug punter looking to change!!, yes i'm looking to imply a strategy within my bankroll and look to build it up over the course of a year, the one bit of advice i keep reading about is telling people to get an edge but how do you find an edge???
somebody give me an example![smiley:crazy]
somebody give me an example![smiley:crazy]
Show More
Relentless
I like to skim waffle if anyone posts their long term profits as being negative thats all the info i need.
You make good points but your conclusions are in my opinion wrong. Long term your betting has been wrong and the short term upswing due to instinct i would suspect to be wrong also.
Personally i use instinct a bit, experience i use more.
Relentless Joined: 09 Feb 02
Don't be afraid to admit that your intelect doesn't set you above everyone else.
My intellect is average, C at maths g.c.s.e went to a s*it uni scraped a degree leading to a below average career. Got lucky by stumbling across betfair in 2002, but that was when the luck stopped the rest wasnt luck.
I like to skim waffle if anyone posts their long term profits as being negative thats all the info i need.
You make good points but your conclusions are in my opinion wrong. Long term your betting has been wrong and the short term upswing due to instinct i would suspect to be wrong also.
Personally i use instinct a bit, experience i use more.
Relentless Joined: 09 Feb 02
Don't be afraid to admit that your intelect doesn't set you above everyone else.
My intellect is average, C at maths g.c.s.e went to a s*it uni scraped a degree leading to a below average career. Got lucky by stumbling across betfair in 2002, but that was when the luck stopped the rest wasnt luck.
The Betfairy zips seen em all over the last 40 years .. heres the top boys (gamblers ) aint no order .. John Banks .. John Gough .. John Mort Green ,, Alex Bird , Phil Bull . The Ace .
Betfairy .. all them gamblers played the horses . but the best gambler .i was ever involved with .. played the greyhounds .
R/Rat, fair enough.
Not saying my recent upturn is entirely due to instinct but I'm definitely letting it play a bigger part now than in the past. I manage a business now, having had a relatively successful small business in the past and a terrible one; learned more from the bad one but I still experience occasions when something feels 'just wrong' and I'm not afraid to act on that feeling. Still make mistakes but hopefully not as many as before and therein lies my edge.
I see gambling as a business; had good times and bad but it's the decisions made in the future that count and again, I trust my 10,000 hours, along with normal event analysis, will provide me with enough instinct to be profitable. Again, still make mistakes but less so than in the past.
So to return to the original question I would say once you have done your time and maxed out on all available data, let your instinct come into play; that might be enough of a differentiator to give you an edge.
Not saying my recent upturn is entirely due to instinct but I'm definitely letting it play a bigger part now than in the past. I manage a business now, having had a relatively successful small business in the past and a terrible one; learned more from the bad one but I still experience occasions when something feels 'just wrong' and I'm not afraid to act on that feeling. Still make mistakes but hopefully not as many as before and therein lies my edge.
I see gambling as a business; had good times and bad but it's the decisions made in the future that count and again, I trust my 10,000 hours, along with normal event analysis, will provide me with enough instinct to be profitable. Again, still make mistakes but less so than in the past.
So to return to the original question I would say once you have done your time and maxed out on all available data, let your instinct come into play; that might be enough of a differentiator to give you an edge.
You can find the best edge in history ... but if the price is'nt right it aint worth squat.
This is a mental game. The biggest edge anyone can gain is getting themselves in order.
Franky four fingers .. best in history ..History in my " book "....... try THE DOOMSDAY BOOK.
I personally swear by my 'Betfair bell'
It's an old 'pub time' brass bell i bought from e -bay
When that sexy red Suspend sign shows her face , i ring my trusty bell ... it sure sets the pulses racing and the juices flowing .
Then the goals appear from no where .
Not sure what the neighbors make of it though
It's an old 'pub time' brass bell i bought from e -bay
When that sexy red Suspend sign shows her face , i ring my trusty bell ... it sure sets the pulses racing and the juices flowing .
Then the goals appear from no where .
Not sure what the neighbors make of it though
The Betfairy - you must be very pleased. You mentioned about zigging when everyone else is zagging and if you disagree with everyone else then you have your edge.
Unless of course everyone else has been deliberately lying and giving the wrong advice in an attempt to create or protect their own edge. But then maybe you did the same so that then cancels it all out and you are still ok. Ooh i'm confused now I think I may need to lie down.
Unless of course everyone else has been deliberately lying and giving the wrong advice in an attempt to create or protect their own edge. But then maybe you did the same so that then cancels it all out and you are still ok. Ooh i'm confused now I think I may need to lie down.
Edge in horse racing ~
Every horse has its own story to tell, although everybody has the same access to the history of that horse, when it comes to rating it to determine its price
each person that prices will have different slant on the value of bonuses and penalties that they apply.
A person rating a 3yo racing against a 4yo will apply a penalty to the 3yo but each rater will have a different perspective on the value to apply.
Then continuing in a like manner on 20 or 30 other considerations to be made ~ distance value, defeated margins, sex, weight etc...
The price that is derived will differ between each handicapper and the ones that do it best will have an edge.
Long term if you do it right the % chance of winning for each horse will not change much only the price, and as it is all about getting value, if the price
is below expectations you have a lay if above it becomes a win bet.
All that coupled with timing and mathematically calculating optimum bet or lay stakes can give you a healthy edge.
You only have to find one or two with value in a race and then you will have value on all runners. It stands to reason that on a book of 100% +/- 2%
that if you have 2 runners with a combined chance of winning that is 10% above what their odds indicate then the aggregate of the balance of runners
must be below par and can be dutched as a lay.
Every horse has its own story to tell, although everybody has the same access to the history of that horse, when it comes to rating it to determine its price
each person that prices will have different slant on the value of bonuses and penalties that they apply.
A person rating a 3yo racing against a 4yo will apply a penalty to the 3yo but each rater will have a different perspective on the value to apply.
Then continuing in a like manner on 20 or 30 other considerations to be made ~ distance value, defeated margins, sex, weight etc...
The price that is derived will differ between each handicapper and the ones that do it best will have an edge.
Long term if you do it right the % chance of winning for each horse will not change much only the price, and as it is all about getting value, if the price
is below expectations you have a lay if above it becomes a win bet.
All that coupled with timing and mathematically calculating optimum bet or lay stakes can give you a healthy edge.
You only have to find one or two with value in a race and then you will have value on all runners. It stands to reason that on a book of 100% +/- 2%
that if you have 2 runners with a combined chance of winning that is 10% above what their odds indicate then the aggregate of the balance of runners
must be below par and can be dutched as a lay.
You people are awful. How did you decide that 1000 essay are a good way to answer this question?
When you fail at first, try, try, and try again. Try everything that you can hypothesize as a betting method, test it with empirical data, and hope the method, if profitable, stays effective long enough for you to become the milionaire that you aspire to be.
Though I'll argue that discipline is at least as key, ESPECIALLY when you're starting with a small bank.
When you fail at first, try, try, and try again. Try everything that you can hypothesize as a betting method, test it with empirical data, and hope the method, if profitable, stays effective long enough for you to become the milionaire that you aspire to be.
Though I'll argue that discipline is at least as key, ESPECIALLY when you're starting with a small bank.
At ths start of this thread I put forward the idea of adopting an opposite approach to gambling, what I was suggesting by this is that you could back against the percieved wisdom of the Forum in order to make a profit.
Example 1,
Twenty years ago I read a piece by a profesioanal gambler, in this article he stated this: when a tennis player wins the first two sets in a five set match and then goes on to lose the next two sets, the match score is now 2:2, in three out of four occassions the winner of the match is the person who had won the first two sets.
Now by the time of the start of the fifth set all the betting momentum would have been with the player who had won the third and fourth set, but it would have been a faulse call to go with that momentum of money as the true favourite would have been other player whose odds almost certainly would have been increasing by the start of the fifth set. I accept this may be out of date and I have no idea whether the data still supports this idea you'd have to do the research yourself to find that out, I mentioned it to show that going against the perceived wisdom has the potential to be highly profitable.
Example 2,
The percieved wisdom is that the Grand National is a lottery, but is that true? Three of the last seven winners and five of the last fourteen have been either favourite or joint favourite. This years winner Dont Push it, was 10/1, joint favourite with the bookies, but layers on here were so certain of the lottery nature of the race they made it an eighteen-two-one starting price. The results seem to indicate in the last fifteen years since the race has been made softer that the Grand national is one of the most profitable races in the calendar for favourite backers.
Example 3,
Earlier this year I came up with idea of backing what I believed to be a good bet in golf by backing a player after each round in the hope his price would have diminished by the time he started his next round so I could green up for a small profit. One of the problems I found doing this, my stake would be about £20 on three or four players per round,on markets with limited liquidity I was forced to take poor odds in order to close my position in order not risk losing all my money.
It strikes me if you have the idea of gaining a profit through trading surely your first rule must be not to leave your positions open. The layers who were laying the rubbish odds to me must have known that at that moment people were trying to cloe out their position on that golfer. You may think I am just an idiot but I was making a small profit overall on my bets maybe £10 TO £15 a week but you can see why I was unwilling to risk leaving my positions open and losing £20 a time rather than trading out at poor odds and making a smaller loss.
I am sure that many of these slick programming devices (bots) must have a sacrad rule not to leave positions open. I could just visualize somebodies bot making dozens of bets and just getting sniffy about the odds offerred on mediocre liquidity markets and just deciding not to trade the position out, the person coming home to check his bot could easily find himself wiped out by results going against him.
The need for traders with or without bots adearening to rule of trading out even if the odds on offer are poor must offer a very good opportunity for a person to take advantage particularly in markets with mediocre liaquidity. My idea is directed specifically to the start of play or the start of the second half of play really any time the market your playing is about to go live and the traders are at risk of losing their money in open play. Really this idea is to do with the flow of money at the beginning of play going live in moderate liquidity markets. The flow of money going one way may open an opportunity for somebody going the other way.
Example 1,
Twenty years ago I read a piece by a profesioanal gambler, in this article he stated this: when a tennis player wins the first two sets in a five set match and then goes on to lose the next two sets, the match score is now 2:2, in three out of four occassions the winner of the match is the person who had won the first two sets.
Now by the time of the start of the fifth set all the betting momentum would have been with the player who had won the third and fourth set, but it would have been a faulse call to go with that momentum of money as the true favourite would have been other player whose odds almost certainly would have been increasing by the start of the fifth set. I accept this may be out of date and I have no idea whether the data still supports this idea you'd have to do the research yourself to find that out, I mentioned it to show that going against the perceived wisdom has the potential to be highly profitable.
Example 2,
The percieved wisdom is that the Grand National is a lottery, but is that true? Three of the last seven winners and five of the last fourteen have been either favourite or joint favourite. This years winner Dont Push it, was 10/1, joint favourite with the bookies, but layers on here were so certain of the lottery nature of the race they made it an eighteen-two-one starting price. The results seem to indicate in the last fifteen years since the race has been made softer that the Grand national is one of the most profitable races in the calendar for favourite backers.
Example 3,
Earlier this year I came up with idea of backing what I believed to be a good bet in golf by backing a player after each round in the hope his price would have diminished by the time he started his next round so I could green up for a small profit. One of the problems I found doing this, my stake would be about £20 on three or four players per round,on markets with limited liquidity I was forced to take poor odds in order to close my position in order not risk losing all my money.
It strikes me if you have the idea of gaining a profit through trading surely your first rule must be not to leave your positions open. The layers who were laying the rubbish odds to me must have known that at that moment people were trying to cloe out their position on that golfer. You may think I am just an idiot but I was making a small profit overall on my bets maybe £10 TO £15 a week but you can see why I was unwilling to risk leaving my positions open and losing £20 a time rather than trading out at poor odds and making a smaller loss.
I am sure that many of these slick programming devices (bots) must have a sacrad rule not to leave positions open. I could just visualize somebodies bot making dozens of bets and just getting sniffy about the odds offerred on mediocre liquidity markets and just deciding not to trade the position out, the person coming home to check his bot could easily find himself wiped out by results going against him.
The need for traders with or without bots adearening to rule of trading out even if the odds on offer are poor must offer a very good opportunity for a person to take advantage particularly in markets with mediocre liaquidity. My idea is directed specifically to the start of play or the start of the second half of play really any time the market your playing is about to go live and the traders are at risk of losing their money in open play. Really this idea is to do with the flow of money at the beginning of play going live in moderate liquidity markets. The flow of money going one way may open an opportunity for somebody going the other way.
Relentless Date Joined: 09 Feb 02
Just remember this. All necessary data (other than significant, genuine inside information that very few have access to) is available for all to use. If there's a pattern to be found from analysis of data, someone will find it and try and exploit it. The chance of that pattern being exclusively identified and remaining confidential AND profitable is very slim.
Relentless , I seek constantly to look for patterns , yes some maybe taken by others over time I agree to that
however I'm not convinced that the chance of not being found out is very slim , I also feel the final piece of the jigsaw can be the pattern itself as opposed to a "gut feeling"
Just remember this. All necessary data (other than significant, genuine inside information that very few have access to) is available for all to use. If there's a pattern to be found from analysis of data, someone will find it and try and exploit it. The chance of that pattern being exclusively identified and remaining confidential AND profitable is very slim.
Relentless , I seek constantly to look for patterns , yes some maybe taken by others over time I agree to that
however I'm not convinced that the chance of not being found out is very slim , I also feel the final piece of the jigsaw can be the pattern itself as opposed to a "gut feeling"
Good thread this, with a good measure of insight and wisdom.
I think the point about data gathering and collation - that it is available to all and thus of limited help when seeking an edge - is well-made. However, it can also depend on what is done with that data once it's all been carefully analysed and pored over.
Taking that data and using it, not for standard backs, lays, dutches and the like, but as a form of weaponry to be wielded in-play can perhaps be an edge for some people. Going into a football match knowing te average goal times of both teams, having information at hand about a team's second-half performance, how well they fare when going behind, which periods most goals are scored, what the likelihood is of the referee showing a card - all these kind of things can be used to some advantage within the volatile waves of betting in-play where people are more prone to making incorrect snap decisions. Over/Under reactions can be taken advantage of more readily when data about "this type of game" is right at your fingertips. Reacting to a game as everyone else does will probably lead to a negative P/L in the long run.
It is therefore the use of the data that is important, and not merely the manner in which it is manipulated into a statistic.
I think the point about data gathering and collation - that it is available to all and thus of limited help when seeking an edge - is well-made. However, it can also depend on what is done with that data once it's all been carefully analysed and pored over.
Taking that data and using it, not for standard backs, lays, dutches and the like, but as a form of weaponry to be wielded in-play can perhaps be an edge for some people. Going into a football match knowing te average goal times of both teams, having information at hand about a team's second-half performance, how well they fare when going behind, which periods most goals are scored, what the likelihood is of the referee showing a card - all these kind of things can be used to some advantage within the volatile waves of betting in-play where people are more prone to making incorrect snap decisions. Over/Under reactions can be taken advantage of more readily when data about "this type of game" is right at your fingertips. Reacting to a game as everyone else does will probably lead to a negative P/L in the long run.
It is therefore the use of the data that is important, and not merely the manner in which it is manipulated into a statistic.
ebasson61
It is therefore the use of the data that is important, and not merely the manner in which it is manipulated into a statistic.
I agree. For example, what do we make of ManU stats so far this season, at home p10, won9, drawn1, away p8 won1 drawn7. What do those figures tell us ? That we should back them at home ? Lay them away ?, back them to draw away ? Lay their opponents every match ? All of those conclusions individually would be profitable, but only with hindsight.
Actually backing ManU (unbeaten, top of the league) in every match, would show a loss of about 20% of your stake.
A sobering thought.
It is therefore the use of the data that is important, and not merely the manner in which it is manipulated into a statistic.
I agree. For example, what do we make of ManU stats so far this season, at home p10, won9, drawn1, away p8 won1 drawn7. What do those figures tell us ? That we should back them at home ? Lay them away ?, back them to draw away ? Lay their opponents every match ? All of those conclusions individually would be profitable, but only with hindsight.
Actually backing ManU (unbeaten, top of the league) in every match, would show a loss of about 20% of your stake.
A sobering thought.
MAVERICK05 - You still have not said what sport is the one you know best ......so I suggest you indicate it, then you may get replies specifically aimed at such sport.
Unlikely anyone will disclose too much .....but you never know what might happen after someone has had a few jarsssssssssss.
GL with quest.
Unlikely anyone will disclose too much .....but you never know what might happen after someone has had a few jarsssssssssss.
GL with quest.
Trouble is it takes so long to find an Edge by the time you start betting its disappeared.
Ebasson61
Relentless made a great point here ( 1st in nearly 10 years that I've seen this being made ) , which basically was to look for "patterns" in the data ... from what I can gather advocating that you need to slice into the data
eg to look at average times goals scored , performances after conceding of even in a lead etc- which of course I believe there could be a lot of merit in this ....however I don't need to do this for some of my systems bets
I follow a pattern which in turns either allows me to back or lay ....the beauty of this game is there are more than 1 way to win on here ....it's all about what works for you
Relentless made a great point here ( 1st in nearly 10 years that I've seen this being made ) , which basically was to look for "patterns" in the data ... from what I can gather advocating that you need to slice into the data
eg to look at average times goals scored , performances after conceding of even in a lead etc- which of course I believe there could be a lot of merit in this ....however I don't need to do this for some of my systems bets
I follow a pattern which in turns either allows me to back or lay ....the beauty of this game is there are more than 1 way to win on here ....it's all about what works for you
Ron, that means the Edge found, never was an edge, the ccorrection having set in.
Some pretty decent posts here. In full agreement with what five leaves left and Lori have written.
I'll make my little suggestion then. Definitely study relevant data from previous contests. Then think in terms precedents, rather than overall averages. This may be helpful.
In law, let us imagine 75% of alleged rapists are found not guilty. Apologies for the awful subject matter but it is a decent way to illustrate my point. So then let us say in the instant case, the level of evidence is about average for a case of this type being brought before a court. We might say a guilty verdict is a 3/1 chance. But the crime was alleged to have been committed against a nun in a convent. Let's say 80% of people accused of raping a nun are found guilty. We might now say our 3/1 shot is a 1/4 chance of a guilty verdict. But imagine now this case can be readily compared to a number of cases where the nun had a history of claiming sexual assault against men she had sex with, and in 100% of those cases the accused was acquitted. How is your 1/4 shot looking now?
Anyway, don't take this as any sort of explanation as to how the criminal law works, but thinking in terms of precedents may help you find an edge if you know your subject well enough.
I'll make my little suggestion then. Definitely study relevant data from previous contests. Then think in terms precedents, rather than overall averages. This may be helpful.
In law, let us imagine 75% of alleged rapists are found not guilty. Apologies for the awful subject matter but it is a decent way to illustrate my point. So then let us say in the instant case, the level of evidence is about average for a case of this type being brought before a court. We might say a guilty verdict is a 3/1 chance. But the crime was alleged to have been committed against a nun in a convent. Let's say 80% of people accused of raping a nun are found guilty. We might now say our 3/1 shot is a 1/4 chance of a guilty verdict. But imagine now this case can be readily compared to a number of cases where the nun had a history of claiming sexual assault against men she had sex with, and in 100% of those cases the accused was acquitted. How is your 1/4 shot looking now?
Anyway, don't take this as any sort of explanation as to how the criminal law works, but thinking in terms of precedents may help you find an edge if you know your subject well enough.
I have to say, I'm completely and utterly baffled by the last post! 
Jesus fccking Christ Deadly Earnest you need help man!
Are we talking about raping a bottle of Blue Nun?
Lori Joined: 20 Apr 04
Replies: 27455 29 Dec 10 10:47
This.
Lori, I'm still trying to work out your post.
Replies: 27455 29 Dec 10 10:47
This.
Lori, I'm still trying to work out your post.
OK you find an edge.
Lets say John Balding mostly has winners in hcps at 5 to 7f.
At LingAW he is pretty good with 5f runners. (Yourlikemefrank 3.00 today)
Now monitoring over 150 trainers with similar comments and keeping track of such comments is a pretty laborious job when you want to find it.
Looking at a racecard you might spot half a dozen and then check out each comment. Then check the more involved detail like grade of race, month, form and whether the trainer is good with penalty runners (or apprentice riders) etc.
You may manage in the AW season but a Saturday flat meeting will drive one insane on occasions.
It maybe prudent to reduce the amount of trainers to a suitable size. In that case John Balding is unlikely to remain on the list of trainers, like so many other small string trainers with little gems.
Any constructive comments welcome. All current data 1995 onwards in Excel under individual trainer with comments via notes.
Lets say John Balding mostly has winners in hcps at 5 to 7f.
At LingAW he is pretty good with 5f runners. (Yourlikemefrank 3.00 today)
Now monitoring over 150 trainers with similar comments and keeping track of such comments is a pretty laborious job when you want to find it.
Looking at a racecard you might spot half a dozen and then check out each comment. Then check the more involved detail like grade of race, month, form and whether the trainer is good with penalty runners (or apprentice riders) etc.
You may manage in the AW season but a Saturday flat meeting will drive one insane on occasions.
It maybe prudent to reduce the amount of trainers to a suitable size. In that case John Balding is unlikely to remain on the list of trainers, like so many other small string trainers with little gems.
Any constructive comments welcome. All current data 1995 onwards in Excel under individual trainer with comments via notes.
I think it all comes down to whether or not you believe in the Efficient Market Hypothesis which states that if all relevant information is publically available then prices will trade at a fair value, in which case it's impossible to beat the market average. I believe this is what Relentless was alluding to.
Personally, I don’t believe in EMH. I know from personal experience that my own investment and betting decisions can be influenced by factors outside of the markets. Why would anyone want to sell a product at less than “fair” value? There could be a myriad of reasons. Equally with betting; a punter may close a position at very poor odds simply because he has to go to the loo, which in turn may affect market sentiments! Until you can model the bowel habits of punters I remain unconvinced.
Personally, I don’t believe in EMH. I know from personal experience that my own investment and betting decisions can be influenced by factors outside of the markets. Why would anyone want to sell a product at less than “fair” value? There could be a myriad of reasons. Equally with betting; a punter may close a position at very poor odds simply because he has to go to the loo, which in turn may affect market sentiments! Until you can model the bowel habits of punters I remain unconvinced.
Betfairy, I put the picture on 'hold' when I go go the toilet.
LOL. I never know if I will be 2 minutes or two hours.
Presumably this would be the DMH (Diahorrea Market Hypothesis)?
"Deadly Earnest" post deciphered?
Let’s say generally under the criteria of study your strike rate average is 25%
Your selected runner on the day is 3/1.
The horse loves the track and has also won at the distance. It has won on the going and has a decent draw. The 3/1 looks too good a price for the race and you rate it an odds on chance.
Odds on favourites and Low priced winners are common at the track in the type of race.
Later analysis reveals the going has changed from soft side of good to heavy (which doesn’t suit your horse). Also the draw is high and low numbers are preferred, especially on soft to heavy going.
The horse is now looking more like 10/1 chance
Let’s say generally under the criteria of study your strike rate average is 25%
Your selected runner on the day is 3/1.
The horse loves the track and has also won at the distance. It has won on the going and has a decent draw. The 3/1 looks too good a price for the race and you rate it an odds on chance.
Odds on favourites and Low priced winners are common at the track in the type of race.
Later analysis reveals the going has changed from soft side of good to heavy (which doesn’t suit your horse). Also the draw is high and low numbers are preferred, especially on soft to heavy going.
The horse is now looking more like 10/1 chance
Pinza Date Joined: 01 May 01
Add contact | Send message When: 31 Dec 10 16:11 OK you find an edge.
Lets say John Balding mostly has winners in hcps at 5 to 7f.
Pinza , In horse racing I do think this is the way to go , however not without many variables though
Add contact | Send message When: 31 Dec 10 16:11 OK you find an edge.
Lets say John Balding mostly has winners in hcps at 5 to 7f.
Pinza , In horse racing I do think this is the way to go , however not without many variables though
Ron, that means the Edge found, never was an edge, the ccorrection having set in.
What you mean like the one I found that showed a 14% profit for the first 1500 bets but only broke even for the next 1500?
What you mean like the one I found that showed a 14% profit for the first 1500 bets but only broke even for the next 1500?
7% profit from 3000 bets ? I didn't think it was possible to have
an 'edge' over 3000 bets.
an 'edge' over 3000 bets.
Yes, on the right track there Pinza. My point is probably quite obvious to some, but worth considering for a person trying to figure out what weighting to give to each of several factors in order to gain an edge over the market.
In racing terms - and forgive me for using Australian racing parlance - a horse may be running on heavy going at Randwick. It has run there 5 times before for 5 easy wins in the heavy. But it is a little horse, and therefore is affected more by weight increases than a bigger horse. In the instant race it has been given 59kg's. 5 times it has run before with weights above 56kg's and every time it has performed well below expectations, including in the heavy on another track.
The horse is even money favourite, on the strength of its 5 heavy wins from 5 races at this track. Are these races that it won the most relevant precedents to follow for the instant race, or are the 5 failures with high weights setting the precedent for the horse's performance here?
Where you can identify the correct precedent and the market is misled by other previous performances that were in some important way distinguishable from the instant event, then you have an edge. In this case, if I am any judge, the horse will perform below expectations. So you might be looking to lay it. In my experience, this occurs a lot more often than people might think, where the market is simply on the wrong track because it is giving significant weighting to data that is basically irrelevant for the instant event. I don't bet on the races these days by the way, this type of thinking can be used in other sports as readily as it can be used for horse racing.
In racing terms - and forgive me for using Australian racing parlance - a horse may be running on heavy going at Randwick. It has run there 5 times before for 5 easy wins in the heavy. But it is a little horse, and therefore is affected more by weight increases than a bigger horse. In the instant race it has been given 59kg's. 5 times it has run before with weights above 56kg's and every time it has performed well below expectations, including in the heavy on another track.
The horse is even money favourite, on the strength of its 5 heavy wins from 5 races at this track. Are these races that it won the most relevant precedents to follow for the instant race, or are the 5 failures with high weights setting the precedent for the horse's performance here?
Where you can identify the correct precedent and the market is misled by other previous performances that were in some important way distinguishable from the instant event, then you have an edge. In this case, if I am any judge, the horse will perform below expectations. So you might be looking to lay it. In my experience, this occurs a lot more often than people might think, where the market is simply on the wrong track because it is giving significant weighting to data that is basically irrelevant for the instant event. I don't bet on the races these days by the way, this type of thinking can be used in other sports as readily as it can be used for horse racing.
"Deadly Earnest"
A very good example provided. The small horse carrying weights has cropped up recently elsewhere on these forums.
I have fond memories of Randwick from a three week holiday at Coogee. I did not venture to the track on racedays nor enter the bookies on hight street at Coogee. A holiday is a holiday and my UK system doesn't apply in Oz.
I can confer with you not betting on racing these days with the study involvement.
"Scotbet"
Thanks
It was a very general statement and I do have many variables.
I use a certain criteria which eradicates a lot of runners.
Since 1995 the trainer has achieved 28 winners at 5f in low grade 3yo+ hcps (E & F grades)
17 of those wins met my general criteria and the better criteria now matched 7 wins from 9 runners.
Most of his 5f hcp winners in those grades had run within 3 weeks (21 from 28)- like todays winner.
A very good example provided. The small horse carrying weights has cropped up recently elsewhere on these forums.
I have fond memories of Randwick from a three week holiday at Coogee. I did not venture to the track on racedays nor enter the bookies on hight street at Coogee. A holiday is a holiday and my UK system doesn't apply in Oz.
I can confer with you not betting on racing these days with the study involvement.
"Scotbet"
Thanks
It was a very general statement and I do have many variables.
I use a certain criteria which eradicates a lot of runners.
Since 1995 the trainer has achieved 28 winners at 5f in low grade 3yo+ hcps (E & F grades)
17 of those wins met my general criteria and the better criteria now matched 7 wins from 9 runners.
Most of his 5f hcp winners in those grades had run within 3 weeks (21 from 28)- like todays winner.
In the sports that interest me, Cricket, Footy and Rugby, one key factor dominates my thinking and it's one which any newbie must be aware of.
Sport is great because it's unpredictable. Knowing that this is the case, the in play punter has an edge. If we know games can fluctuate we can take advantage of high odds if you're backing or low odds if you're a layer.
For example, Chelsea dropped to 1.5 to win the League. They touched 6 a while ago and are now at 4.5.
Wolves were 8s to beat Liverpool. Australia were odds on to win the Ashes etc etc.
This edge is of course just the start. But it's a pretty decent entry point.
Sport is great because it's unpredictable. Knowing that this is the case, the in play punter has an edge. If we know games can fluctuate we can take advantage of high odds if you're backing or low odds if you're a layer.
For example, Chelsea dropped to 1.5 to win the League. They touched 6 a while ago and are now at 4.5.
Wolves were 8s to beat Liverpool. Australia were odds on to win the Ashes etc etc.
This edge is of course just the start. But it's a pretty decent entry point.
deadly earnest - your earlier post was very well put .
Betfairy is absolutely correct imo that the EMH couldn't possibly apply to the sports betting scenario.
No matter how perfect the information that was proved to the public it would always then be down to individual/group opinion & interpretation. Any efficiencies would tend to end at this point. If they didn't it would be impossible for the small margin market makers to operate. They'd be taken apart week in week out, but as they are the most successful on Betfair it ought to give a little clue as to where some opportunities may lay.
No matter how perfect the information that was proved to the public it would always then be down to individual/group opinion & interpretation. Any efficiencies would tend to end at this point. If they didn't it would be impossible for the small margin market makers to operate. They'd be taken apart week in week out, but as they are the most successful on Betfair it ought to give a little clue as to where some opportunities may lay.
Look at it in a way that only a minority are doing would be one way of getting an edge as most of the others would be formulating their opinions via a more popular method and therefore perhaps you would come up with value bets in the majority of cases.
I agree with allinadayswork
What % of punters actually rate and price using objective data.
I would guess less than 1%
Those that do can take advantage of early prices where the value can be found.
What % of punters actually rate and price using objective data.
I would guess less than 1%
Those that do can take advantage of early prices where the value can be found.
MAVERICK05
...the one bit of advice i keep reading about is telling people to get an edge but how do you find an edge???
somebody give me an example!
Most answers seem to be form study related, but simple edges exist in the betting pattern of markets. For example in the overs/unders or correct score markets, after a goal suspension the market is wiped clean and bets resubmitted. If you know roughly what the new price will establish at, you can ask above and below to catch the bounce as the price forms during the first minute. That's a simple edge to play with that can lead to experimenting with and discovering other opportunities. Another simple example that requires patience is something like laying the 0-0 in certain matches where you can back it back after 3 - 8 minutes at the same price, resulting in a free lay and free win if the goal comes early enough. There's lots of simple edges that involve studying the market movements, how often do you currently look at price graphs?
...the one bit of advice i keep reading about is telling people to get an edge but how do you find an edge???
somebody give me an example!
Most answers seem to be form study related, but simple edges exist in the betting pattern of markets. For example in the overs/unders or correct score markets, after a goal suspension the market is wiped clean and bets resubmitted. If you know roughly what the new price will establish at, you can ask above and below to catch the bounce as the price forms during the first minute. That's a simple edge to play with that can lead to experimenting with and discovering other opportunities. Another simple example that requires patience is something like laying the 0-0 in certain matches where you can back it back after 3 - 8 minutes at the same price, resulting in a free lay and free win if the goal comes early enough. There's lots of simple edges that involve studying the market movements, how often do you currently look at price graphs?
Why would any sane person share this info
You clearly don't understand, or understimate the power of the group. If you are consistantly taking money out of a market then you WILL see competition. Why you'd encourage that competition is beyond me because it will be the death of your edge. Where money is involved there is no f*cking about.
Silly silly boys.
You clearly don't understand, or understimate the power of the group. If you are consistantly taking money out of a market then you WILL see competition. Why you'd encourage that competition is beyond me because it will be the death of your edge. Where money is involved there is no f*cking about.
Silly silly boys.
This thread is laughable. 
The cheapest way to find an edge is hard work.
Any worthwhile example given would no longer be an edge.
The cheapest way to find an edge is hard work.
Any worthwhile example given would no longer be an edge.
its not laughable .
the poster is simply looking for advice .
the poster is simply looking for advice .
What's laughable is the number of people with so called edges willing to give them away at the drop of the hat.
They either don't have an edge or have no respect for the market.
They either don't have an edge or have no respect for the market.
Rocket, I do recall you asking me to tell you the in-play thing I was discussing off forum with Betfairy!
What I have alluded to above, whilst obvious to someone who has spent time thinking about it, would never occur to the majority nor for that matter would it disappear because the structure of the market is such that it needs to cater to the lowest common denominator.
I'm also vague enough in a lot of my posts not to give my actual train of thought away, hints in the general direction are fine imo. They can stimulate debate that then sets other trains of thought running in your head.
What I have alluded to above, whilst obvious to someone who has spent time thinking about it, would never occur to the majority nor for that matter would it disappear because the structure of the market is such that it needs to cater to the lowest common denominator.
I'm also vague enough in a lot of my posts not to give my actual train of thought away, hints in the general direction are fine imo. They can stimulate debate that then sets other trains of thought running in your head.
If you profit from it then you should keep it quiet.
I posted a pretty simple formula in jonnyg's P&L thread a few weeks ago. Almost instantly the spread closed. As far as I was aware it was already out there but clearly not as widespread as I thought.
You have no idea who is reading these threads, what bank they have, what software they have etc.
If you can do it then anyone can so why go bleeting?
I posted a pretty simple formula in jonnyg's P&L thread a few weeks ago. Almost instantly the spread closed. As far as I was aware it was already out there but clearly not as widespread as I thought.
You have no idea who is reading these threads, what bank they have, what software they have etc.
If you can do it then anyone can so why go bleeting?
Oh, I do agree with you Rocket. The best bits I haven't mentioned & never will.
There are definitely lurkers reading this.
There are definitely lurkers reading this.
By: This user is online. DaveEdwards
Date Joined: 06 Sep 07 Add contact | Send message When: 01 Jan 11 21:18 Rocket, I do recall you asking me to tell you the in-play thing I was discussing off forum with Betfairy!
You're right. And if you can discover something like you did then why can't any of the millions of other punters watching the same market?
I had a brief look when you mentioned it but didn't put much more thought into it. If I'd taken a week off and really studied it, or any number of other things, I'm sure I could have come up with something. Like the hundreds of thousands of others who could've. And in those 100k's I bet there are a few who could utilise software to remove the donkey work, utilise a large bank and sh*te all over your edge/
Date Joined: 06 Sep 07 Add contact | Send message When: 01 Jan 11 21:18 Rocket, I do recall you asking me to tell you the in-play thing I was discussing off forum with Betfairy!
You're right. And if you can discover something like you did then why can't any of the millions of other punters watching the same market?
I had a brief look when you mentioned it but didn't put much more thought into it. If I'd taken a week off and really studied it, or any number of other things, I'm sure I could have come up with something. Like the hundreds of thousands of others who could've. And in those 100k's I bet there are a few who could utilise software to remove the donkey work, utilise a large bank and sh*te all over your edge/
I agree which I why I am vague at best on here, but that isn't to say that people cannot interpret what I or others may hint at & apply it themselves.
Something that I do wonder about is working as a team. It is already an established fact that there are syndicates working the markets. What most of the contributors here appear to be is individuals. Working collectively on major markets pooling ideas etc I think there would be obvious scope to put something robust together. That said, everyone would have to trust each other and be prepared to share certain things that they did. Maybe it wouldn't work & I cetainly don't feel it is something that I am ready to do right now, but I'm certainly not against the idea of a select few discussing strategy etc. I'm not talking trading now obviously.
Something that I do wonder about is working as a team. It is already an established fact that there are syndicates working the markets. What most of the contributors here appear to be is individuals. Working collectively on major markets pooling ideas etc I think there would be obvious scope to put something robust together. That said, everyone would have to trust each other and be prepared to share certain things that they did. Maybe it wouldn't work & I cetainly don't feel it is something that I am ready to do right now, but I'm certainly not against the idea of a select few discussing strategy etc. I'm not talking trading now obviously.
There are teams that manipulate the markets.
Rocket : Why would any sane person share this info
You're assuming sanity? :)
The more liquidity in the example of laying the 0-0 for a free lay, the better. Ideally the layer will also try to lay the preceding odds. If you can get a good lay on the 0-0 straight after kick off near the head of the queue, say odds 14.0, and another at 13.5, 13.0, 12.5 etc near the head of the queues, you can back them back at the same odds just before the drop of a tick.
You're assuming sanity? :)
The more liquidity in the example of laying the 0-0 for a free lay, the better. Ideally the layer will also try to lay the preceding odds. If you can get a good lay on the 0-0 straight after kick off near the head of the queue, say odds 14.0, and another at 13.5, 13.0, 12.5 etc near the head of the queues, you can back them back at the same odds just before the drop of a tick.
Generally speaking I aim to bet against the popular
vote, not on every market of course, but mainly betting
against things happening, i.e. low bookings when high
expected and such like.
vote, not on every market of course, but mainly betting
against things happening, i.e. low bookings when high
expected and such like.
Can you come and bet on cricket Kenilworth? I'd like someone to bet against when I expect high runs or low sixes, these type of things.
http://www.facebook.com/pages/Stupid-Oddscom-Big-Betsnet-for-Sports-fans/180...
Every bet type has edges (remember that "bet type"), you just have to find them, every edge is proven in long term statistical results, do the maths on your theory see the stats and results to see if it works.
I am very mathmatical in my approaches, I have a system for laying a certain type of horse, 9 out of 10 of my qualifiers lose, meaning I win.
Soccer, I have a theory on a bet type that shows 7 out of 9 wins
Cricket, look at the statistics of Strauss as captain in test matches, 31 matches 5 losses???? so that tells you to lay the opposition (trade in and out to go green)
If you rely on gut instincts, national pride or heart, you'll lose.
most people are too lazy to look for angles and do the math on them.
My biggest tip for an edge would be to bet and lay the same to go green IE worst case scenario is you break even
For example, I will in soccer bet at the start of the game, under 2.5 goals, right now we have Hyundai A league melbourne V Nth Qld under 2.5 goals $1.86 as the game progresses with no goals the price will shorten lay out to be square.
$100 @ 1.86 gives $86 profit, then lay under 2.5 at $1.50 with a liabillity of $86 so if it is under 2.5 goals I break even if over 2.5 win $60
I am very mathmatical in my approaches, I have a system for laying a certain type of horse, 9 out of 10 of my qualifiers lose, meaning I win.
Soccer, I have a theory on a bet type that shows 7 out of 9 wins
Cricket, look at the statistics of Strauss as captain in test matches, 31 matches 5 losses???? so that tells you to lay the opposition (trade in and out to go green)
If you rely on gut instincts, national pride or heart, you'll lose.
most people are too lazy to look for angles and do the math on them.
My biggest tip for an edge would be to bet and lay the same to go green IE worst case scenario is you break even
For example, I will in soccer bet at the start of the game, under 2.5 goals, right now we have Hyundai A league melbourne V Nth Qld under 2.5 goals $1.86 as the game progresses with no goals the price will shorten lay out to be square.
$100 @ 1.86 gives $86 profit, then lay under 2.5 at $1.50 with a liabillity of $86 so if it is under 2.5 goals I break even if over 2.5 win $60
Lay price on above is now into $1.62 after 15 minutes of play, I lay out now for a break even or $36 profit
its not called the gold coast for nothing then !
i agree with most of your conclusions here.
i agree with most of your conclusions here.
Backing under 2.5 and laying off 15/20 minutes later is most certainly NOT an edge. It's about as old and tired a method as lay the draw.
with all due respect GCI, "every edge is proven in long term statistical results, do the maths on your theory see the stats and results to see if it works." is your absolutely critical statement.
I have found thru painful experience that short term successes can be very misleading. If you truly want to prove and 'edge' you must test it over thousands of tests not hundreds. or perhaps over a year or more, not mere weeks or months.
Short term success tends to lead to overconfidence, overstaking and therefore sudden disaster when the inevitable losing strek hits.
Probability's a bi tch !!
GL all.
I have found thru painful experience that short term successes can be very misleading. If you truly want to prove and 'edge' you must test it over thousands of tests not hundreds. or perhaps over a year or more, not mere weeks or months.
Short term success tends to lead to overconfidence, overstaking and therefore sudden disaster when the inevitable losing strek hits.
Probability's a bi tch !!
GL all.
Deadly Earnest
Can you come and bet on cricket Kenilworth? I'd like someone to bet against when I expect high runs or low sixes, these type of things.
Earnest, there are plenty of negatives as well as positives in cricket just as there
are in football. I do ok I can assure you.
Can you come and bet on cricket Kenilworth? I'd like someone to bet against when I expect high runs or low sixes, these type of things.
Earnest, there are plenty of negatives as well as positives in cricket just as there
are in football. I do ok I can assure you.
I'm sure you do well Kenilworth, I'm only kidding you on mate.
On a more serious note, I do agree there are often opportunities in opposing general market sentiment. Other times, there is pretty clear value in backing the favoured result. England to win the 5th test in Sydney at 2.5ish looks a clear and timely example of that to me, for reasons I won't expand upon here.
On a more serious note, I do agree there are often opportunities in opposing general market sentiment. Other times, there is pretty clear value in backing the favoured result. England to win the 5th test in Sydney at 2.5ish looks a clear and timely example of that to me, for reasons I won't expand upon here.
Earnest, no problem. The final test is interesting, from memory backing the favourite
on a match by match basis has produced just one win so far, correct me if I'm wrong.
The bookmakers and exchange markets have been very cautious about opposing Australia
and so far have been right to do so. I can't make up my mind on this as I can't get
away from the fact that Australia need it more than England, and will Strauss and co.
battle if the have their back to the wall ? I hope they can.
on a match by match basis has produced just one win so far, correct me if I'm wrong.
The bookmakers and exchange markets have been very cautious about opposing Australia
and so far have been right to do so. I can't make up my mind on this as I can't get
away from the fact that Australia need it more than England, and will Strauss and co.
battle if the have their back to the wall ? I hope they can.
GoldCoast
Cricket, look at the statistics of Strauss as captain in test matches, 31 matches 5 losses???? so that tells you to lay the opposition
how do you correlate this with 'long term statistics'
31 events? absolute crazy example
Cricket, look at the statistics of Strauss as captain in test matches, 31 matches 5 losses???? so that tells you to lay the opposition
how do you correlate this with 'long term statistics'
31 events? absolute crazy example
What it tells you is that is would have been a good idea to back a Straus led
side, but you have to think that way before it happens.
side, but you have to think that way before it happens.
Birch, on average a skipper probably captains less tests than that in his reign, so you have no chance to make decisions based on relevant sample sizes in the thousands where cricket is concerned. The beauty of that of course, is neither do the people you are betting against. In fact in my experience those who dwell on large sample sizes will be badly misled by averages etc as outcomes in cricket change over time with new rules, equipment, training techniques etc.
This goes to my earlier point that it is often better to focus on relevant precedents to the instant event, rather than averages gleaned from huge samples.
This goes to my earlier point that it is often better to focus on relevant precedents to the instant event, rather than averages gleaned from huge samples.
Wow, thanks for the info guys, lots taken on board, i think or i know my problem is discipline, for instance i'm only going to start with a bank of around two hundred pounds but my problem is in the past patience basically.
I actually know people who are making a fortune from bf and have given up their jobs and if i'm completely honest i'm envious.
I'm betting on football, poker, horses etc and taking punts to try and build it up big quickly but i've realised without patience and discipline yes you can have a good day but eventually it all goes back.
If i had to choose one market to stick to it would probably be football markets over 2.5 goals as i seem to do pretty well on that and you are limiting your losses as the average price seems to be around the even money mark, that's my thoughts and am thinking of studying the football and sticking to this,
what do you think??
I actually know people who are making a fortune from bf and have given up their jobs and if i'm completely honest i'm envious.
I'm betting on football, poker, horses etc and taking punts to try and build it up big quickly but i've realised without patience and discipline yes you can have a good day but eventually it all goes back.
If i had to choose one market to stick to it would probably be football markets over 2.5 goals as i seem to do pretty well on that and you are limiting your losses as the average price seems to be around the even money mark, that's my thoughts and am thinking of studying the football and sticking to this,
what do you think??
What do you think, you ask ? I think you ought to ask these
people you mention who are allegedly making 'fortunes', for
some advice. My bit of advice is not to believe everything
you are told.
people you mention who are allegedly making 'fortunes', for
some advice. My bit of advice is not to believe everything
you are told.
What are the people you know making a fortune on, I mean which sport and for how long? I wouldn't believe all they tell you if I was you, making a fortune on BF is possible of course, but nearly as rare as rocking horse poo.
You sound very much like I was a couple of years ago, my problem was a lack of discipline too. Some people don't believe in the discipline concept because it comes naturally to them, but for thoses of us that suffer, learning a systematic approach is essential. I learnt to control my staking by only ever betting 0.5% of the betting bank, as the bank grows so do the profits.
IMO you're right to just stick with football, study the markets and the price graphs and work out where the opportunities are. The day I gave up horse racing to concentrate on football was the day I started to make money!
It's still hard to stick rigidly to a system/method though, as a good edge will only give you perhaps 2-5% after comm, so there will still be losing runs that can tempt you in to a chase. You have to learn how to stick to the method even when you feel like you've been 10 rounds with Tyson. That's difficult when you're just a human and not a bot!
I try to look at it as if I'm running a roulette table (a licence to print) but even so the edge is only a puny sounding 2.7% and there will be days when punters rape you, but if you can keep your head through those days you will always come out on top.
You sound very much like I was a couple of years ago, my problem was a lack of discipline too. Some people don't believe in the discipline concept because it comes naturally to them, but for thoses of us that suffer, learning a systematic approach is essential. I learnt to control my staking by only ever betting 0.5% of the betting bank, as the bank grows so do the profits.
IMO you're right to just stick with football, study the markets and the price graphs and work out where the opportunities are. The day I gave up horse racing to concentrate on football was the day I started to make money!
It's still hard to stick rigidly to a system/method though, as a good edge will only give you perhaps 2-5% after comm, so there will still be losing runs that can tempt you in to a chase. You have to learn how to stick to the method even when you feel like you've been 10 rounds with Tyson. That's difficult when you're just a human and not a bot!
I try to look at it as if I'm running a roulette table (a licence to print) but even so the edge is only a puny sounding 2.7% and there will be days when punters rape you, but if you can keep your head through those days you will always come out on top.
MAVERICK05
The idea of sticking to one sport and specializing on it is imo the way to go.
With your football markets, maybe I am wrong but limiting yourself to bets or lays around the even money price also limits your scope to obtain big overlays.
Your mind set is on limiting losses instead of increasing profits. Fear of losing is the greatest obstacle to rising above mediocrity in all walks of life.
By all means get the 2.5 goals and over right, this might be your bread and butter punting. Once you are consistently making a profit on that increase your scope to the more profitable bigger odds. Keep a data base or spread sheet, predict before the event what you think the prices should be for all the bet types
available, jot those down next to the matches and jot down pre-match prices for the same. Analyze how your predictions are doing, are you way out, close or better than the final outcome. Are you doing better than pre-match? Study, study and tune your predictions.
The idea of sticking to one sport and specializing on it is imo the way to go.
With your football markets, maybe I am wrong but limiting yourself to bets or lays around the even money price also limits your scope to obtain big overlays.
Your mind set is on limiting losses instead of increasing profits. Fear of losing is the greatest obstacle to rising above mediocrity in all walks of life.
By all means get the 2.5 goals and over right, this might be your bread and butter punting. Once you are consistently making a profit on that increase your scope to the more profitable bigger odds. Keep a data base or spread sheet, predict before the event what you think the prices should be for all the bet types
available, jot those down next to the matches and jot down pre-match prices for the same. Analyze how your predictions are doing, are you way out, close or better than the final outcome. Are you doing better than pre-match? Study, study and tune your predictions.
Maverick, with a bank of 200 pounds you will need patience to acquire fortunes. However it is a good amount to practise a necessary betting skill. A tip for you is to record all your bets and review them afterwards with a particular emphasis on your emotional state at time of placing bets, you will soon see in exact monetary terms the cost of impatience.Mastering this skill is essential to success as it is one of the cornerstones of successful punting.
Fear of losing is the greatest obstacle to rising above mediocrity in all walks of life.
=============================================================================================
COMPOUND .......You ain't a KIWI!.......................Their mentality re RUGBY is the best there is................................
PERFECTION is what they "teach"..................................
LOSING is nowhere in their mental approach to a game OR ANY game..............
However...............in life...some "lose".....few WIN...................BUT ....what is "winning" ....and what is "losing".........DEFINE!
=============================================================================================
COMPOUND .......You ain't a KIWI!.......................Their mentality re RUGBY is the best there is................................
PERFECTION is what they "teach"..................................
LOSING is nowhere in their mental approach to a game OR ANY game..............
However...............in life...some "lose".....few WIN...................BUT ....what is "winning" ....and what is "losing".........DEFINE!
DFC
Did you ever watch 'Kung Fu' the TV series built around the philosophies of life? Losing is embracing safety ~
You can't gain if you don't compete, you will not know true joy without experiencing sorrow, for most situations in life
there is a yin and yang. If you take no chances in life there will be no rewards.
The rich in love, business, sport prowess, inventing, investing etc... are that way because they took a gamble, not because they sat back
and played it safe and risked nothing. No risk no reward, nothing ventured nothing gained. Fortune favors the brave. etc... etc...
Losers are people who are content to serve others, willing to be enslaved so as not to risk losing their next meal.
Did you ever watch 'Kung Fu' the TV series built around the philosophies of life? Losing is embracing safety ~
You can't gain if you don't compete, you will not know true joy without experiencing sorrow, for most situations in life
there is a yin and yang. If you take no chances in life there will be no rewards.
The rich in love, business, sport prowess, inventing, investing etc... are that way because they took a gamble, not because they sat back
and played it safe and risked nothing. No risk no reward, nothing ventured nothing gained. Fortune favors the brave. etc... etc...
Losers are people who are content to serve others, willing to be enslaved so as not to risk losing their next meal.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBYoarsGLXc
Are they "winning" ..........or "losing"?
Are they "winning" ..........or "losing"?
"MEDIOCRITY".......can suck you innnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnnn..........
Blend in to the "background"...................say NOTHING ( a bit like K).........moan about after-eights...................
You MIGHT be AUSTRALIAN ...Compound................and so.....................Get used to losing ONCE in your life!......................Won't happen too often ............... as you is AUSTRALIAN!
Blend in to the "background"...................say NOTHING ( a bit like K).........moan about after-eights...................
You MIGHT be AUSTRALIAN ...Compound................and so.....................Get used to losing ONCE in your life!......................Won't happen too often ............... as you is AUSTRALIAN!
Compound Magic Joined: 27 May 06
Replies: 539 03 Jan 11 03:32
DFC
Did you ever watch 'Kung Fu' the TV series built around the philosophies of life? Losing is embracing safety ~
You can't gain if you don't compete, you will not know true joy without experiencing sorrow, for most situations in life
there is a yin and yang. If you take no chances in life there will be no rewards.
The rich in love, business, sport prowess, inventing, investing etc... are that way because they took a gamble, not because they sat back
and played it safe and risked nothing. No risk no reward, nothing ventured nothing gained. Fortune favors the brave. etc... etc...
Losers are people who are content to serve others, willing to be enslaved so as not to risk losing their next meal.
===========================================================================================
Trouble is................................some people believe they are playing FOOTBALL.......when they are just POOR PLAYERS .....NOT EVEN STRUTTING!
They are NOT "brave"...................just mediocre in their approach to the "beautiful£ game..............a bit like LIVERPOOL have been for last 2 years................+
Go through the motions in life......................and you get NOTHING other than self-gratification.............and NOBODY WILL RECOGNISE any "talent" you MAY have.....by JUST GOING THROUGH THE LOCO_MOTION of life!
Replies: 539 03 Jan 11 03:32
DFC
Did you ever watch 'Kung Fu' the TV series built around the philosophies of life? Losing is embracing safety ~
You can't gain if you don't compete, you will not know true joy without experiencing sorrow, for most situations in life
there is a yin and yang. If you take no chances in life there will be no rewards.
The rich in love, business, sport prowess, inventing, investing etc... are that way because they took a gamble, not because they sat back
and played it safe and risked nothing. No risk no reward, nothing ventured nothing gained. Fortune favors the brave. etc... etc...
Losers are people who are content to serve others, willing to be enslaved so as not to risk losing their next meal.
===========================================================================================
Trouble is................................some people believe they are playing FOOTBALL.......when they are just POOR PLAYERS .....NOT EVEN STRUTTING!
They are NOT "brave"...................just mediocre in their approach to the "beautiful£ game..............a bit like LIVERPOOL have been for last 2 years................+
Go through the motions in life......................and you get NOTHING other than self-gratification.............and NOBODY WILL RECOGNISE any "talent" you MAY have.....by JUST GOING THROUGH THE LOCO_MOTION of life!
DFC
I am actually a British citizen living in Australia.
Its not about losing or being defeated on an outcome it is about continuing the game, not giving in to defeat.
Many suffer temporary defeats and go on to be successful and reap the rewards of persistence.
I am actually a British citizen living in Australia.
Its not about losing or being defeated on an outcome it is about continuing the game, not giving in to defeat.
Many suffer temporary defeats and go on to be successful and reap the rewards of persistence.
KIWIS know what winning mentality is..................never even consider a backward step .... EVER........they have the winning mentality .......or they are just MENTAL!
Head to Head
Australia wins 39
New Zealand wins 95
Draws 5
Australia wins 39
New Zealand wins 95
Draws 5
Results
Date Venue Score Victor Comments
6 November 2010 Twickenham, London 16 – 26 New Zealand
21 November 2009 Twickenham, London 6 – 19 New Zealand
29 November 2008 Twickenham, London 6 – 32 New Zealand
21 June 2008 AMI Stadium, Christchurch 44– 12 New Zealand
14 June 2008 Eden Park, Auckland 37– 20 New Zealand
5 November 2006 Twickenham, London 20 – 41 New Zealand
19 November 2005 Twickenham, London 19 – 23 New Zealand
19 June 2004 Eden Park, Auckland 36 – 12 New Zealand
12 June 2004 Carisbrook, Dunedin 36 – 3 New Zealand
14 June 2003 Westpac Stadium, Wellington 13 – 15 England
Date Venue Score Victor Comments
6 November 2010 Twickenham, London 16 – 26 New Zealand
21 November 2009 Twickenham, London 6 – 19 New Zealand
29 November 2008 Twickenham, London 6 – 32 New Zealand
21 June 2008 AMI Stadium, Christchurch 44– 12 New Zealand
14 June 2008 Eden Park, Auckland 37– 20 New Zealand
5 November 2006 Twickenham, London 20 – 41 New Zealand
19 November 2005 Twickenham, London 19 – 23 New Zealand
19 June 2004 Eden Park, Auckland 36 – 12 New Zealand
12 June 2004 Carisbrook, Dunedin 36 – 3 New Zealand
14 June 2003 Westpac Stadium, Wellington 13 – 15 England
Compound Magic Joined: 27 May 06
Replies: 540 03 Jan 11 04:06
DFC
I am actually a British citizen living in Australia.
Its not about losing or being defeated on an outcome it is about continuing the game, not giving in to defeat.
Many suffer temporary defeats and go on to be successful and reap the rewards of persistence.
====================================================================================================
When you state you are British.........................you really must mean IRISH?
Replies: 540 03 Jan 11 04:06
DFC
I am actually a British citizen living in Australia.
Its not about losing or being defeated on an outcome it is about continuing the game, not giving in to defeat.
Many suffer temporary defeats and go on to be successful and reap the rewards of persistence.
====================================================================================================
When you state you are British.........................you really must mean IRISH?
You appear to be very knowledgeable re AUSTRALIAN RACING.......................or should I say HORSE RACING .
Therefore you is IRISH!.........You certainly CANNOT be ENGLISH or WELSH................
Therefore you is IRISH!.........You certainly CANNOT be ENGLISH or WELSH................
Little Marlow is a village and civil parish in Buckinghamshire, England.
It is on the north bank of the River Thames, about a mile east of Marlow. The toponym "Marlow" is derived from the Old English for "land remaining after the draining of a pool". In 1015 it was recorded as Merelafan.
Hamlets in the parish of Little Marlow include Coldmoorholme, Fern, Handy Cross, Sheepridge, and Winchbottom.
The village cottages are set around a large space, surrounded by lime trees, that is used as a cricket ground and village green where an annual fête is held.
The Church of England parish church of Saint John the Baptist lies at the heart of the village, not far from the river and next to the manor house. The original construction of the church is Norman, dating from the final years of the 12th century. Most of the building was built during the 14th and 15th centuries.
Little Marlow was once the site of a Benedictine convent dedicated to the Blessed Virgin Mary. The convent belonged to Bisham Abbey. It was seized by the Crown in the Dissolution of the Monasteries in 1547 and was eventually demolished in 1740. Today the village is in a scenic location on the River Thames, although home to a large sewage works and gravel extraction plant.
Melanie Brown of the Spice Girls pop group lived in Little Marlow for a while. The village became the focus of a national news story in 1998 when she and dancer Jimmy Gulzar were married in the parish church and invited many celebrity guests to their wedding reception.
There are two public houses in the village: the Kings Head and the Queens Head
=========================================================================================================
Loads of entrepreneurial naming of pubs there...........
It is on the north bank of the River Thames, about a mile east of Marlow. The toponym "Marlow" is derived from the Old English for "land remaining after the draining of a pool". In 1015 it was recorded as Merelafan.
Hamlets in the parish of Little Marlow include Coldmoorholme, Fern, Handy Cross, Sheepridge, and Winchbottom.
The village cottages are set around a large space, surrounded by lime trees, that is used as a cricket ground and village green where an annual fête is held.
The Church of England parish church of Saint John the Baptist lies at the heart of the village, not far from the river and next to the manor house. The original construction of the church is Norman, dating from the final years of the 12th century. Most of the building was built during the 14th and 15th centuries.
Little Marlow was once the site of a Benedictine convent dedicated to the Blessed Virgin Mary. The convent belonged to Bisham Abbey. It was seized by the Crown in the Dissolution of the Monasteries in 1547 and was eventually demolished in 1740. Today the village is in a scenic location on the River Thames, although home to a large sewage works and gravel extraction plant.
Melanie Brown of the Spice Girls pop group lived in Little Marlow for a while. The village became the focus of a national news story in 1998 when she and dancer Jimmy Gulzar were married in the parish church and invited many celebrity guests to their wedding reception.
There are two public houses in the village: the Kings Head and the Queens Head
=========================================================================================================
Loads of entrepreneurial naming of pubs there...........
Whatever nationality you is...........................you know "your stuff" CM................
Always "interesting" what you post re ratings/handicapping etc et c....most of it is well over my BIG HEAD!!!! however i do recognise someone who knows what they are talking about..........compared to K ....who sits on fence ....never says ANYTHING useful......................makes statements that say NOTHING ....etc etc etc ..................and never is as inebriated as what I ammmmmmmmm
G M the noooooooooooooooooooooooo
Always "interesting" what you post re ratings/handicapping etc et c....most of it is well over my BIG HEAD!!!! however i do recognise someone who knows what they are talking about..........compared to K ....who sits on fence ....never says ANYTHING useful......................makes statements that say NOTHING ....etc etc etc ..................and never is as inebriated as what I ammmmmmmmm
G M the noooooooooooooooooooooooo
DFCIRONMAN says kiwis know what winning mentality is and never take a backward step,ever.
He then quotes rugby union head to head.
NZ 95 wins
Aust 39 wins
He neglects to point out rugby league head to head.
Aust 90 wins
NZ 29 wins
Seems there were a few backward steps after all!
He then quotes rugby union head to head.
NZ 95 wins
Aust 39 wins
He neglects to point out rugby league head to head.
Aust 90 wins
NZ 29 wins
Seems there were a few backward steps after all!
I saw there had been 20 posts on this thread which I thought
might be interesting, but then my jaw dropped as I saw that
about 13 of them were from DFC after a drinking session. I
didn't, as usual, read any of them. Does anyone read his
posts ?
might be interesting, but then my jaw dropped as I saw that
about 13 of them were from DFC after a drinking session. I
didn't, as usual, read any of them. Does anyone read his
posts ?
The thing I don't like about DFC's post is all the "........." he always puts in his messages. Just makes them unreadable. Not quite sure what purpose they serve.
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539