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It won't happen. Call it intuition.
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He is rightly favourite, but does seem very short indeed considering the volatility of recent editions.
I've layed him at 1/1 (now about 13/10) and I think he will
get bigger. Joe Public just don't see Horse Racing as sport
but more of an industry, and the only people who will vote
for him will be those in Racing. There isn't enough of them.
Mcdowell and Westwood are becoming big runners.
get bigger. Joe Public just don't see Horse Racing as sport
but more of an industry, and the only people who will vote
for him will be those in Racing. There isn't enough of them.
Mcdowell and Westwood are becoming big runners.
Hard to say though, Golfers don't do very well seemingly, Clarke was 4/11 or so in 2006 but didn't win.There will bne a split vote this time too, though i would think McDowell will easily beat Westwood.
Of course Jockeys have a terrible record but so did Boxers before 2007.
Of course Jockeys have a terrible record but so did Boxers before 2007.
You are right of course that Racing barely registers with the general public these days.
However this event is not as big as the BBC likes to make it out to be. It does not compare to X Factor where the vote counts are in the Millions and half the country has a strong view .Around 150,000 votes is all it takes to win, maybe less than 100k if it is close, so a determined campaign by the minority that do care about Racing would be sufficient.
However this event is not as big as the BBC likes to make it out to be. It does not compare to X Factor where the vote counts are in the Millions and half the country has a strong view .Around 150,000 votes is all it takes to win, maybe less than 100k if it is close, so a determined campaign by the minority that do care about Racing would be sufficient.
I think he is nailed on. Ryan Giggs only got 150,000 votes last year. The Racing community have been having a concerted campaign to get him voted and there are a lot of people in the industry. The Grand National was on BBC TV so they will do a big feature. None of the Golf was on terrestrial TV. Every time it gets bigger than evens I have been grabbing a bit.
Mccoy should be 1/2 or less, he's absolutely nailed on, as said there's been a campaign for ages in the racing industry to get people to vote for him. Both golfers will split the vote from their supporters, and in fact are excellent lays for top 3.
surely it is down to the 10mins vt that they will show
What really made me laugh was the mugs who were lumping on McDowell as the result of the win a week or so ago, as if that will get him a single extra vote from someone who wasn't going to do so anyway!
^
That would likely have taken some votes away from Westwood, so justified in shortening his odds.
I doubt the Golf Vote is all that great though.
That would likely have taken some votes away from Westwood, so justified in shortening his odds.
I doubt the Golf Vote is all that great though.
Think most of the isle of man are voting for Mark Cavendish according to the islands newspapers as well as an effort by cycling weekly to get their readership to vote. He was also in the top 3 last year I think and this year arguably had a better season. His odds are massive as well at the moment and will come in on the night.
Then again, I think even David Haye's odds will alos come in on the night.
Then again, I think even David Haye's odds will alos come in on the night.
No Ken, used to like this market . Not bothered since 2007, backed Hamilton 16/1, still didn't win though was 1/16 at one point, and about 1/5 on the night.
Much harder to figure out these days .The last 3 winners would have been almost impossible to pick going by previous year's results.
Much harder to figure out these days .The last 3 winners would have been almost impossible to pick going by previous year's results.
Jessica Ennis won gold in the heptathlon in the European Athletics Championships and gold in the pentathlon in the World Indoor Championships. I think those feats make her as worthy as anyone for the title. Add in that the award has gone to an 'athlete' 17 times since it began in 1954 and it surely makes her better than a 33/1 shot.
The worry of course is that SPOTY seems to be developing a sentimental bent - what with Giggs' win last year and the ardour surrounding McCoy this time round.
I haven't seen any of the campaigns of this year's challengers, but I can't imagine McCoy's focuses on anything more than his Grand National win? Well no Grand National-winning jockey has won it before - nor has ANY jockey in fact - and being champion jockey for the last however many years hasn't helped him either, so why should such a combination (negligible in the general public's opinion and weak in mine) see him past the winning post now? And that's the problem: people are drawing somewhat on his past, as happened with Giggs.
I think Chris Hoy was the rightful winner in 2008, but Giggs, Calzaghe and Zara Phillips since 2005? Hmmm!
The worry of course is that SPOTY seems to be developing a sentimental bent - what with Giggs' win last year and the ardour surrounding McCoy this time round.
I haven't seen any of the campaigns of this year's challengers, but I can't imagine McCoy's focuses on anything more than his Grand National win? Well no Grand National-winning jockey has won it before - nor has ANY jockey in fact - and being champion jockey for the last however many years hasn't helped him either, so why should such a combination (negligible in the general public's opinion and weak in mine) see him past the winning post now? And that's the problem: people are drawing somewhat on his past, as happened with Giggs.
I think Chris Hoy was the rightful winner in 2008, but Giggs, Calzaghe and Zara Phillips since 2005? Hmmm!
Many punters think that this is about sporting achievements and a few even think personality counts. It is a phone vote. A quick google Bob Nudd sports personality will assist with betting strategy on this market.
Betting on this is a mugs game...its all about who the BBC wont to win.The batting order of the vt`s is also important..A.P should be the winner but i wouldn`t touch him at those odds!
hacker,
For every loser there is a winner so by definition it cannot be a mugs game as there are winners. Moreover some people win year on year on this market.
For every loser there is a winner so by definition it cannot be a mugs game as there are winners. Moreover some people win year on year on this market.
' I've layed him at 1/1 (now about 13/10) and I think he will
get bigger. Joe Public just don't see Horse Racing as sport
but more of an industry, and the only people who will vote
for him will be those in Racing. There isn't enough of them.
Mcdowell and Westwood are becoming big runners'
Typical mugs. McCoys already across the finishing. Had 250k on.
get bigger. Joe Public just don't see Horse Racing as sport
but more of an industry, and the only people who will vote
for him will be those in Racing. There isn't enough of them.
Mcdowell and Westwood are becoming big runners'
Typical mugs. McCoys already across the finishing. Had 250k on.
Did you miss ck in your name, maybe you shouldnt have layed at evens, now much shorter, maybe your only hope is to get all your mates to vote for Westwood if they count them you mug!!!!!!!!!1
Plenty wise guys coming out of the woodwork 2 weeks
after my opening post, now the price is down to 1.60.
Where were they when I started this thread ?
after my opening post, now the price is down to 1.60.
Where were they when I started this thread ?
Little dicky bird told me !!
Very close AP and Gold medal winter sports girl . Very close from phone votes
Very close AP and Gold medal winter sports girl . Very close from phone votes
Looks like I've backed an 1/1 loser, so that should
have one or two rolling about in the aisle. Some you
win, some you lose, we will see.
have one or two rolling about in the aisle. Some you
win, some you lose, we will see.
Kenilworth A/P odds ON zip would be a layer theres better odds on shots runnig next week and the week after that . dont get me wrong i like the guy he is a champion .. but i just cannot see it .If iam wrong well iam wrong and done my cash
Mccoy wont win ... amy williams will be in the top 3 after her fantastice achievment beating the canadian faviourite in her own country
when I posted he was 1.8ish..first time I saw the thread.
My point is this....you are a pro footie punter, Roy Brindley is a pro poker player.
Believe it or not there are people who bet professionally on SPOTY year after year.
I could tell from your initial posts that you dont know the subject.
You've mentioned before that you dont see how people can pay premium charges betting alone.
I hope this market has proved to you otherwise.
My point is this....you are a pro footie punter, Roy Brindley is a pro poker player.
Believe it or not there are people who bet professionally on SPOTY year after year.
I could tell from your initial posts that you dont know the subject.
You've mentioned before that you dont see how people can pay premium charges betting alone.
I hope this market has proved to you otherwise.
to be fair things have changed since your initial post...
McCoy has won Journalists Sportsperson Of The Year
The veracity of campaign for McCoy has surprised me. Knew there would be one but it's been fantastic
The Sun, The Star and The Mirror all come out asking people to vote for him (racing clearly as good at wining and dining as the Qataris were with Fifa execs)
There's been no campaigning for Phil Taylor
Swann didnt wrap up The Ashes
McCoy has won Journalists Sportsperson Of The Year
The veracity of campaign for McCoy has surprised me. Knew there would be one but it's been fantastic
The Sun, The Star and The Mirror all come out asking people to vote for him (racing clearly as good at wining and dining as the Qataris were with Fifa execs)
There's been no campaigning for Phil Taylor
Swann didnt wrap up The Ashes
I thought Giggs was a cert last year once the top 10 was announced purely on the amount of Utd fans there are
The other thing to go on is the nationality - if they are scottish, welsh etc then they will also get the patriotic vote
Giggs, Hoy, Calzaghe
As for this year - i dont know !
The other thing to go on is the nationality - if they are scottish, welsh etc then they will also get the patriotic vote
Giggs, Hoy, Calzaghe
As for this year - i dont know !
Mcdowell has achieved the most this year and the Ryder Cup was a huge effort so that will really take some beating. I am all up for Mccoy winning it but the campaign has been aimed at the racing public which is not as big as other sports.
CLYDBANK,I'm not sure about the professional punters and Spoty, also you haven't said
whether you think McCoy will win or not, perhaps you are saving that for later.
Premium charge ? Again not sure of the connection with Spoty, but then I'm just
a straight footie punter working in tight markets and I don't how people can
keep their commission, paid and generated, below the figures to enable them to
avoid the PC, but I don't want to go down that road. My reason for opposing McCoy,
mainly that the sport doesn't connect very well the public and racing people have
never done well in it, having said that, there has been a concerted effort from the
press to get behind AP, and he may win by default. I don't mind if he does, all it
will mean is I backed a loser, and at this moment I could get out losing 25% of my
stake so all is not lost. I will stick with it though.
whether you think McCoy will win or not, perhaps you are saving that for later.
Premium charge ? Again not sure of the connection with Spoty, but then I'm just
a straight footie punter working in tight markets and I don't how people can
keep their commission, paid and generated, below the figures to enable them to
avoid the PC, but I don't want to go down that road. My reason for opposing McCoy,
mainly that the sport doesn't connect very well the public and racing people have
never done well in it, having said that, there has been a concerted effort from the
press to get behind AP, and he may win by default. I don't mind if he does, all it
will mean is I backed a loser, and at this moment I could get out losing 25% of my
stake so all is not lost. I will stick with it though.
As I said in the first place, he should be no more than 1/2, and finally the market is getting down towards that price. Only shock is how long it took.
turtlehead, the reason why he has shortened is like any other
ante post bet 2 weeks before the event, there are things that
can happen in that fortnight. Nothing has really happened, hence
the price has contracted.
ante post bet 2 weeks before the event, there are things that
can happen in that fortnight. Nothing has really happened, hence
the price has contracted.
So are you trying to claim he has contracted for no reason 
The simple reason is that he was far too high a price in the first place. Not rocket science. As stated previously, there was a huge campaign in the racing media to get people in the industry to vote for him, as it was a total joke that he had never been nominated before. People have (eventually) woken up to that, and that is reflected in recent changes in the price.
The simple reason is that he was far too high a price in the first place. Not rocket science. As stated previously, there was a huge campaign in the racing media to get people in the industry to vote for him, as it was a total joke that he had never been nominated before. People have (eventually) woken up to that, and that is reflected in recent changes in the price.
I'm convinced Mc Coy will win SPOTY tonight. I think 1/2 is an excellent price. In my book he is 1/10 fav. I have been watching NH racing for years and jockeys like McCoy are one of the reasons why attendances at NH racecourse are at all time high. Racing is intricately woven in UK sport and life (everybody goes horse racing at least once in their life). with Mc Coy champion jockey 15 times and winner of the Grand National this year. He IS a household name. It's time for him to step up and put UK racing in the limelight for the first time!
Ken is correct
If Swann had taken 6 wickets overnight and England had retained the ashes he would have been 1/2 and McCoy 5/1
If Swann had taken 6 wickets overnight and England had retained the ashes he would have been 1/2 and McCoy 5/1
turtlehead, you seem to have trouble understanding the English Language.
McCoy was evens two weeks ago, and it was his providing nothing happened
from then to now. Nothing happened and that is the reason he was around
1.60 earlier this evening.
McCoy was evens two weeks ago, and it was his providing nothing happened
from then to now. Nothing happened and that is the reason he was around
1.60 earlier this evening.
GL Ken, McCoy closed at 1.45, I've a had a fun fiver on Westwood.
Ken, what on earth did you expect to happen during those two weeks that would have a material effect on the prices?
Swann winning the Ashes almost single handed MAY have had a big reduction in his price, but it would have been at the effect of the others, Mccoy would still have a huge favourite for the reasons I explained earlier.
Laying at evens and waiting for a drift was foolish, as there was no reason to expect his price to go out, whilst there was every reason to expect it to go the other way. Simple as that, really.
Swann winning the Ashes almost single handed MAY have had a big reduction in his price, but it would have been at the effect of the others, Mccoy would still have a huge favourite for the reasons I explained earlier.
Laying at evens and waiting for a drift was foolish, as there was no reason to expect his price to go out, whilst there was every reason to expect it to go the other way. Simple as that, really.
He did drift, to 13/10 actually, but I didn't lay him
to trade,but because I didn't think he could win for various
reasons, (bad event for favourites, racing not a sport in some
eyes, his personality etc). What he had in his favour was in the
end, no credible opposition. Well done AP.
to trade,but because I didn't think he could win for various
reasons, (bad event for favourites, racing not a sport in some
eyes, his personality etc). What he had in his favour was in the
end, no credible opposition. Well done AP.
turtleshead 12 Dec 10 18:10
Mccoy should be 1/2 or less, he's absolutely nailed on, as said there's been a campaign for ages in the racing industry to get people to vote for him. Both golfers will split the vote from their supporters, and in fact are excellent lays for top 3.
Hope a few took note, they would have cleaned up, especially on Mcdowell
Mccoy should be 1/2 or less, he's absolutely nailed on, as said there's been a campaign for ages in the racing industry to get people to vote for him. Both golfers will split the vote from their supporters, and in fact are excellent lays for top 3.
Hope a few took note, they would have cleaned up, especially on Mcdowell
Turtles, there's nothing worse than people quoting themselves, it's a bit like seeing some vain person playing with their hair in the mirror.
Obviously you don't think McCoy could have lost, which makes you wrong. :)
Obviously you don't think McCoy could have lost, which makes you wrong. :)
Oh dear Trevh, I take it you lost and are wishing that you had followed some well reasoned advice instead of making what looks like a jealous rant? I can think of plenty worse things on here than pointing out a previous sensible post which worked out as expected, but each to their own.
Never mind, we can't all be winners
Never mind, we can't all be winners
I just find it immature and cringe worthy, that's all.
kenny and trev backing each other up on the same thread with similar style writing...has this ever happened before?
lol!
just kidding, i love you both. Today has been 1 of the best day of my life..wish you 'both' (the 'two' of you!) well.....gay lovers or the same person, who will ever know?
lol ; )
lol!
just kidding, i love you both. Today has been 1 of the best day of my life..wish you 'both' (the 'two' of you!) well.....gay lovers or the same person, who will ever know?
lol ; )
in 'related' [:(] news ? what kind of sad loser creates two forum 'personalities' just to be heard? er...
What he had in his favour was in the
end, no credible opposition. Well done AP
Ken what he had was an organised campaign. He won primarily for that reason and would still have won even if England had done well in the 3rd test.
1. Tony McCoy 293,152 (41.98%)
2. Phil Taylor 72,095 (10.33)
3. Jessica Ennis 62,953 (9.02)
end, no credible opposition. Well done AP
Ken what he had was an organised campaign. He won primarily for that reason and would still have won even if England had done well in the 3rd test.
1. Tony McCoy 293,152 (41.98%)
2. Phil Taylor 72,095 (10.33)
3. Jessica Ennis 62,953 (9.02)
kenilworth I think it's pretty obvious from my posts who I thought would win. Both you and Roy Brindley (some poker pundit on ATR) thought he was a big lay and I said you should stick to the day job.
There were several good reasons to back him which were being ignored and there was one, what I think was a flimsy reason, to lay him which imo didnt stand up to scrutiny, and this one reason was being used above all else to make the bet a big lay. Further you used golf as your main danger as it was a bigger sport, totally unaware that golf has a poor record in this event and ignoring the fact there were 2 golfers in the line up. Clarke was well beat by Zara Phillips 4 years ago when a hot 1.3 favourite and in 2004 the only year when there's been a PV for the team award the Ryder Cup was odds on and got beat by the rowers. Throw in 6 time major winner and long time world number one Nick Faldos record in this event...1 win and no places, golf is far from a sport to fear.
I thought the were 2 plausible dangers...a campaign for Phil Taylor (although The Power wasnt helped that the WCs were on Sky at exactly the same time) or an Ashes Swann inspired victory. You didnt mention either and as it turns out the margin of victory was so big that its hard to imagine either would have made a difference.
2 things surprised me...
1. The margin of victory, I was thinking double the next person
2. How well Westwood did. I thought he'd finish 8th
There were several good reasons to back him which were being ignored and there was one, what I think was a flimsy reason, to lay him which imo didnt stand up to scrutiny, and this one reason was being used above all else to make the bet a big lay. Further you used golf as your main danger as it was a bigger sport, totally unaware that golf has a poor record in this event and ignoring the fact there were 2 golfers in the line up. Clarke was well beat by Zara Phillips 4 years ago when a hot 1.3 favourite and in 2004 the only year when there's been a PV for the team award the Ryder Cup was odds on and got beat by the rowers. Throw in 6 time major winner and long time world number one Nick Faldos record in this event...1 win and no places, golf is far from a sport to fear.
I thought the were 2 plausible dangers...a campaign for Phil Taylor (although The Power wasnt helped that the WCs were on Sky at exactly the same time) or an Ashes Swann inspired victory. You didnt mention either and as it turns out the margin of victory was so big that its hard to imagine either would have made a difference.
2 things surprised me...
1. The margin of victory, I was thinking double the next person
2. How well Westwood did. I thought he'd finish 8th
CLYDEBANK29
I vaguely recall that our swords may have crossed in the past. Whether they have or have not may I say that I cannot fault your logic and I am most impressed with your observations and not just because they mirror mine.
The margin of victory surpised me too. The odds only went to 1.3 in-play which must say something for the integrity of beebs phone vote as it must have been clear to anybody in the know that this was a forgone conclusion and worth smashing into 1.01. Perhaps the insiders just hope to milk it again next year for a modest amount.
Ken,
I noted that you said Pros do not bet on SPOTY. They may not gamble but they do place bets, I can assure you of that.
I vaguely recall that our swords may have crossed in the past. Whether they have or have not may I say that I cannot fault your logic and I am most impressed with your observations and not just because they mirror mine.
The margin of victory surpised me too. The odds only went to 1.3 in-play which must say something for the integrity of beebs phone vote as it must have been clear to anybody in the know that this was a forgone conclusion and worth smashing into 1.01. Perhaps the insiders just hope to milk it again next year for a modest amount.
Ken,
I noted that you said Pros do not bet on SPOTY. They may not gamble but they do place bets, I can assure you of that.
,I'm not sure about the professional punters and Spoty
Alex, that's what I said about the professionals and Spoty.
Alex, that's what I said about the professionals and Spoty.
ALL of the racing fraternity must have voted about 200 times each --
an absolute farce .
No phuocker watches racing anymore - of all my workmates i'm the only one .
An absolute shambolic episode .
an absolute farce .
No phuocker watches racing anymore - of all my workmates i'm the only one .
An absolute shambolic episode .
Didn't play the market but did observe the build-up.
Golf - I was a keen amateur and have followed golf since I was 4 or 5, lived through the evolutions and agree that golf has an uphill battle for recognition in the SP. And, unlike some sports that can still offer voting to more than one person in the same field, golf cannot and the vote would have been split. Golf has its 'glory moments' and though they are often fantastic and memorable, they are that - moments.
The horse racing campaign - It is a phone vote. Plenty of millionaires out there in all the sports. Plenty of sponsors who need their athlete to win. Plenty of agents in several fields with cash flow. But the number of overall votes doesn't reflect that those who could ran up the premium rate calls with miscellaneous funds.
Racing did organize themselves but there were plenty within the fraternity that didn't think he would win (almost every day over the past month on internet radio, someone commented.
Racing is in a dire state and needs an industry boost. This may not bring more punters to the gates but for a week, the media will be there and within those who work and an earn a living from the sport, perhaps a moral boost for them during the tough economic times.
Golf - I was a keen amateur and have followed golf since I was 4 or 5, lived through the evolutions and agree that golf has an uphill battle for recognition in the SP. And, unlike some sports that can still offer voting to more than one person in the same field, golf cannot and the vote would have been split. Golf has its 'glory moments' and though they are often fantastic and memorable, they are that - moments.
The horse racing campaign - It is a phone vote. Plenty of millionaires out there in all the sports. Plenty of sponsors who need their athlete to win. Plenty of agents in several fields with cash flow. But the number of overall votes doesn't reflect that those who could ran up the premium rate calls with miscellaneous funds.
Racing did organize themselves but there were plenty within the fraternity that didn't think he would win (almost every day over the past month on internet radio, someone commented.
Racing is in a dire state and needs an industry boost. This may not bring more punters to the gates but for a week, the media will be there and within those who work and an earn a living from the sport, perhaps a moral boost for them during the tough economic times.
Kenilworth 20 Dec 10 15:24
,I'm not sure about the professional punters and Spoty
Alex, that's what I said about the professionals and Spoty.
What did you say? I thought you expessed the view that pro punters did not place bets on the likes of SPOTY. I took the opposite view.
,I'm not sure about the professional punters and Spoty
Alex, that's what I said about the professionals and Spoty.
What did you say? I thought you expessed the view that pro punters did not place bets on the likes of SPOTY. I took the opposite view.
Professional punters wouldn't bet in specials markets.
It's a mugs game :)
It's a mugs game :)
It is because it is a mugs game that they do. [;)]
Alex, I said in an earlier post that ''I wasn't sure''. That is different
from saying ''pro punters did not place bets on the likes of SPOTY''. Why are
you having a problem with did not and I wasn't sure ?
from saying ''pro punters did not place bets on the likes of SPOTY''. Why are
you having a problem with did not and I wasn't sure ?
Ken,
It is probably because I have broken my glasses and am having difficulty in focusing on the screens.
It is probably because I have broken my glasses and am having difficulty in focusing on the screens.
The viewing figures Sky gets compared to the Beeb may prove the key here.
During the Ryder Cup about 650k viewers watched each day's play. The US Open is of course covered by Sky also. GMAC hadlittle chance on Sunday.
10m saw AP ride to victory at Aintree and apparently the Bookies took a £10m hit on the race, suggesting massive support for the winner.
The surprise was the exclusion of Beth Tweddle from the list. She won the Worlds this year ON the Beeb. Daly won the Commonwealths in contrast.
Very hard for Haye to get any support in SPOTY with a pay per view deal. Jess Ennis won the Europeans and World Indoors. Clearly her looks help her but Tweddle was a shocking omission imo.
Basically SPOTY is something of an embarrasment. It's largely dictated by who has the tv rights to what.
During the Ryder Cup about 650k viewers watched each day's play. The US Open is of course covered by Sky also. GMAC hadlittle chance on Sunday.
10m saw AP ride to victory at Aintree and apparently the Bookies took a £10m hit on the race, suggesting massive support for the winner.
The surprise was the exclusion of Beth Tweddle from the list. She won the Worlds this year ON the Beeb. Daly won the Commonwealths in contrast.
Very hard for Haye to get any support in SPOTY with a pay per view deal. Jess Ennis won the Europeans and World Indoors. Clearly her looks help her but Tweddle was a shocking omission imo.
Basically SPOTY is something of an embarrasment. It's largely dictated by who has the tv rights to what.
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