General Betting
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It won't happen. Call it intuition.
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He is rightly favourite, but does seem very short indeed considering the volatility of recent editions.
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I've layed him at 1/1 (now about 13/10) and I think he will
get bigger. Joe Public just don't see Horse Racing as sport but more of an industry, and the only people who will vote for him will be those in Racing. There isn't enough of them. Mcdowell and Westwood are becoming big runners. |
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Hard to say though, Golfers don't do very well seemingly, Clarke was 4/11 or so in 2006 but didn't win.There will bne a split vote this time too, though i would think McDowell will easily beat Westwood.
Of course Jockeys have a terrible record but so did Boxers before 2007. |
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You are right of course that Racing barely registers with the general public these days.
However this event is not as big as the BBC likes to make it out to be. It does not compare to X Factor where the vote counts are in the Millions and half the country has a strong view .Around 150,000 votes is all it takes to win, maybe less than 100k if it is close, so a determined campaign by the minority that do care about Racing would be sufficient. |
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I think he is nailed on. Ryan Giggs only got 150,000 votes last year. The Racing community have been having a concerted campaign to get him voted and there are a lot of people in the industry. The Grand National was on BBC TV so they will do a big feature. None of the Golf was on terrestrial TV. Every time it gets bigger than evens I have been grabbing a bit.
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Mccoy should be 1/2 or less, he's absolutely nailed on, as said there's been a campaign for ages in the racing industry to get people to vote for him. Both golfers will split the vote from their supporters, and in fact are excellent lays for top 3.
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surely it is down to the 10mins vt that they will show
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What really made me laugh was the mugs who were lumping on McDowell as the result of the win a week or so ago, as if that will get him a single extra vote from someone who wasn't going to do so anyway!
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^
That would likely have taken some votes away from Westwood, so justified in shortening his odds. I doubt the Golf Vote is all that great though. |
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Tobermory, have you had a bet ?
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McCoy the biggest lay i have ever seen
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Think most of the isle of man are voting for Mark Cavendish according to the islands newspapers as well as an effort by cycling weekly to get their readership to vote. He was also in the top 3 last year I think and this year arguably had a better season. His odds are massive as well at the moment and will come in on the night.
Then again, I think even David Haye's odds will alos come in on the night. |
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No Ken, used to like this market . Not bothered since 2007, backed Hamilton 16/1, still didn't win though was 1/16 at one point, and about 1/5 on the night.
Much harder to figure out these days .The last 3 winners would have been almost impossible to pick going by previous year's results. |
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Jessica Ennis won gold in the heptathlon in the European Athletics Championships and gold in the pentathlon in the World Indoor Championships. I think those feats make her as worthy as anyone for the title. Add in that the award has gone to an 'athlete' 17 times since it began in 1954 and it surely makes her better than a 33/1 shot.
The worry of course is that SPOTY seems to be developing a sentimental bent - what with Giggs' win last year and the ardour surrounding McCoy this time round. I haven't seen any of the campaigns of this year's challengers, but I can't imagine McCoy's focuses on anything more than his Grand National win? Well no Grand National-winning jockey has won it before - nor has ANY jockey in fact - and being champion jockey for the last however many years hasn't helped him either, so why should such a combination (negligible in the general public's opinion and weak in mine) see him past the winning post now? And that's the problem: people are drawing somewhat on his past, as happened with Giggs. I think Chris Hoy was the rightful winner in 2008, but Giggs, Calzaghe and Zara Phillips since 2005? Hmmm! |
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Many punters think that this is about sporting achievements and a few even think personality counts. It is a phone vote. A quick google Bob Nudd sports personality will assist with betting strategy on this market.
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Betting on this is a mugs game...its all about who the BBC wont to win.The batting order of the vt`s is also important..A.P should be the winner but i wouldn`t touch him at those odds!
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hacker,
For every loser there is a winner so by definition it cannot be a mugs game as there are winners. Moreover some people win year on year on this market. |
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stick to football kenilworth imho
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call it intuition
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Is it all over ? Has he won ?
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Pipped at the post by Kara kenilworth :(
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' I've layed him at 1/1 (now about 13/10) and I think he will
get bigger. Joe Public just don't see Horse Racing as sport but more of an industry, and the only people who will vote for him will be those in Racing. There isn't enough of them. Mcdowell and Westwood are becoming big runners' Typical mugs. McCoys already across the finishing. Had 250k on. |
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Did you miss ck in your name, maybe you shouldnt have layed at evens, now much shorter, maybe your only hope is to get all your mates to vote for Westwood if they count them you mug!!!!!!!!!1
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ZARA -- now thats a girl id like to bed
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Plenty wise guys coming out of the woodwork 2 weeks
after my opening post, now the price is down to 1.60. Where were they when I started this thread ? |
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Little dicky bird told me !!
Very close AP and Gold medal winter sports girl . Very close from phone votes |
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mc'coys price in freefall now.
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Looks like I've backed an 1/1 loser, so that should
have one or two rolling about in the aisle. Some you win, some you lose, we will see. |
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Kenilworth A/P odds ON zip would be a layer theres better odds on shots runnig next week and the week after that . dont get me wrong i like the guy he is a champion .. but i just cannot see it .If iam wrong well iam wrong and done my cash
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Mccoy wont win ... amy williams will be in the top 3 after her fantastice achievment beating the canadian faviourite in her own country
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when I posted he was 1.8ish..first time I saw the thread.
My point is this....you are a pro footie punter, Roy Brindley is a pro poker player. Believe it or not there are people who bet professionally on SPOTY year after year. I could tell from your initial posts that you dont know the subject. You've mentioned before that you dont see how people can pay premium charges betting alone. I hope this market has proved to you otherwise. |
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to be fair things have changed since your initial post...
McCoy has won Journalists Sportsperson Of The Year The veracity of campaign for McCoy has surprised me. Knew there would be one but it's been fantastic The Sun, The Star and The Mirror all come out asking people to vote for him (racing clearly as good at wining and dining as the Qataris were with Fifa execs) There's been no campaigning for Phil Taylor Swann didnt wrap up The Ashes |
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I thought Giggs was a cert last year once the top 10 was announced purely on the amount of Utd fans there are
The other thing to go on is the nationality - if they are scottish, welsh etc then they will also get the patriotic vote Giggs, Hoy, Calzaghe As for this year - i dont know ! |
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Mcdowell has achieved the most this year and the Ryder Cup was a huge effort so that will really take some beating. I am all up for Mccoy winning it but the campaign has been aimed at the racing public which is not as big as other sports.
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hills report £1k on Westwood at 33/1
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5k on exchanges - apparantly the golfers won it !
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CLYDBANK,I'm not sure about the professional punters and Spoty, also you haven't said
whether you think McCoy will win or not, perhaps you are saving that for later. Premium charge ? Again not sure of the connection with Spoty, but then I'm just a straight footie punter working in tight markets and I don't how people can keep their commission, paid and generated, below the figures to enable them to avoid the PC, but I don't want to go down that road. My reason for opposing McCoy, mainly that the sport doesn't connect very well the public and racing people have never done well in it, having said that, there has been a concerted effort from the press to get behind AP, and he may win by default. I don't mind if he does, all it will mean is I backed a loser, and at this moment I could get out losing 25% of my stake so all is not lost. I will stick with it though. |
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As I said in the first place, he should be no more than 1/2, and finally the market is getting down towards that price. Only shock is how long it took.
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yes , i agree
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