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General Betting
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Everytime you hear about 'having an edge' it relates to prices, like, being able to spot a 1.5 shot available at 1.7
But is the discipline not to bet also an edge? Like you have a big win on saturday, so you have money to burn on sunday, but you see no games you like....so instead of gambling you go out, take the girlfriend to a nice restaurant, forget gambling.
Is this an edge?
But is the discipline not to bet also an edge? Like you have a big win on saturday, so you have money to burn on sunday, but you see no games you like....so instead of gambling you go out, take the girlfriend to a nice restaurant, forget gambling.
Is this an edge?
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Replies: 289
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It isn't, buddy.
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no.
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No, but it is probaly true to say that an edge without the discipline to rigorously apply it, will end up not being a useful edge.
How's that for a non-answer ? |
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Rocket
I notice you have seemingly started to call eveybody buddy. Any particular reason? Or just in a good mood ? |
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reasonable answer imo
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It can't be difficult to not have a bet.
I'm not a good runner just because I can't be bothered to run round the block every morning. |
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Why, are you a good runner?
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No.
But if I was, that wouldn't be the reason. etc. |
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I think discipline is a form of edge, in that it will mean you will lose less if nothing else, and learning how to lose less is the first step to learning how to become profitable, or at least it was for me.
Take the example of 2 punters, Granny Smith who systematically bets 1 point at a time, and Likely lad Dave who deposits and bets what ever he's got in his bank after pay day. There selections could be pretty much irrelevant, but one of them will last a long time whilst the other will crash and burn pretty damn quick. |
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Betting smaller doesn't equal more discipline though. If Granny happened to be a winning punter, she might be costing herself money by betting too small.
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you absolute mugs..sorry (not including lori, I've learned a lot from his posts).
I will give you an example. A about 1 year ago, it was the case that you could bet on 250 markets every 60 weeks without paying premium charge. So, thats what I did. Every week I worked out my 4 "picks of the week" and i bet only them, I never bet more if iwas in profit, and most important, I never chased...... 4 bets a week, nothing more, nothing less. Or like we say here in argentina "nada más, nada menos" To cut a long story short, I bet I made more money $$ in the last year than any of you will make in a lifetime. So... Yes, discipline is an edge, it is the biggest edge you can have. Try get some. Thanks. |
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also i mean, I have learned a lot from Lori's posts in the last 4 years, not in this thread.
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I don't consider "not chasing" to be discipline, I guess that's where we differ. "Chasing" to me is just being stupid for the sake of it.
If you're saying "not being stupid" is an edge, then I'd have to agree of course  |
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yes but its a fact that 98 & ( according to that other thread ) of people chase and lose money. So, when you can do something that 98 / 100 people cannot do, this is an edge..pure and simple
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sorry 98 %
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Their not there.
One point isn't necessarily too small. Size doesn't matter in this instance because she's still in the game due to disciplined staking, while Dave is losing all his hard earned. |
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yeah, imagine Dave wins $1000 on friday night.
Saturday he's bored, so he bets $100 on some bulgarian second division soccer. He loses. He get's mad, he bets $200 to win it back. He loses. Suddenly Dave is pissed cuz he is losing his hard earned money on sports he knows nothing about, and further, his true edge...his "4 picks of the week" dont come around till next weekend, and he wants his money back NOW. So he keeps betting and keeps losing. Suddenly Dave, who could make $1000 a week betting on what he knows, makes nothing. Purely by not having discipline dave is a loser........discipline is the key to everything. In my opinion. |
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She's losing all hers too, just slower. Neither has an edge.
Of course, if Dave does have an edge and Granny does not, then if he works long enough he'll actually end up a winner anyway and she'll end up a loser. (Thanks to Investor for pointing something out that leads to this conclusion a few weeks ago) Not to be confused with the normal "pro" gambler who can't go all in because the bankroll is irreplaceable. |
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I think we're talking about a different definition then LM. I'd just consider those people to be idiotic. I didn't realise so many did that!
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Reading your 2:08 post then we're definitely talking different things. I don't see why he would do that. If that's what you mean by lack of discipline, then yeah, that would count against someone.
To me that's just a losing gambler who sometimes backs winners. |
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and my three posts in a row there were all significantly behind the speed at which the forum was revealing things to me , sorry about that.
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" I don't see why he would do that" well because you make a living gambling, and 98 % of people dont.. you gotta put yourself in their shoes ; )
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Fair enough
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I have been there as little as 5 hours ago. I have a 2k bank and I was going to lose $70 on a soccer game that was 1-0. No big deal right... But I was pissed off, I couldnt handle losing that money, and I was a little drunk. So I put $1000 on at $1.20 tat no more goals would be scored, just to not take a loss, even that that was idiotic. In the end, a goal was scored, but thank god the ref blew the whistle 1 second before.
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Ouch.
Yeah, please don't be doing that! Also, how's the boxing style movie going? Is that still on the cards? |
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to be honest not right now
2010 has been the worst year of my life lori but im preparing for a very big 2011.. also I have everything worked out, all the high spots, you know like wrestling terminology.. so as soon as I am ready its gonna be a smooth process I just turned 27, so I have 3 years to complete it, then I'll be too old anyway lori you know something.. (I'll write it in the next post ) |
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LMansini, lots of punters do that, I used to do it years ago, they can't stand a loss so do exactly as you described. Staking discipline is now a vital part of what I do as it provides an essential form of security, I never stray from the plan. Hope you learn from your close call tonight!
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One time you wrote about how you had no more money, so you started with like $100 and decided to work your way up from there, just eating cheap as hell food so you didn't have high expenses.
This stuck with me because at one point this year I found myself with no money, and I found out that my family don't actually care about me at all.. except when times are going good... so I had to live off a small amount of income, and eat very cheap food. Now things are back on track for a glorious return, but anyway, When I was trying to just make rent money from gambling I remembered your example and it helped me out |
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Sorry to hear it LMansini.
Make a lot of posts on here a lot are just chatter but some are serious, if it's helped someone out it makes the time spent on the serious ones worthwhile. All the best in 2011, I still want to see that movie. Remember how that food tastes next time you thing about having a $1k chasing bet [;)] |
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*think
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yeah things have turned the corner now, its all up from here
[:x]  |
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some interesting points since i was small ive always liked the puzzle of the maths an working out what was gonna win the race it takes so long to get to a stage of reading form and unstanding certain trainers (will not go into any names ) but that is not half the storey to win u must have discipline i have been betting for 15 years and it the last 5 years i have takes it seriously but still ended up chasing hopefully next year will be alot different . listen peeps also come check me mates board out he is looking for people that like a chat http://racingpro.proboards.com/
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an edge is something i would class as "a positive expectation advantage over the market, that over time will lead to a profit"
discipline may be required to implement the advantage properly. but it in of itself is not an edge. afterall you could be very disciplined about making systematically bad-value bets. |
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unless of course you are counting every skill you need to win as combined up into "your overall edge", in that case some on here could also class their lucky pants, you know the green ones with the hole, just off centre, but far away from the arse crack to be still waerable, as an edge.
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Nice imagery Zola.
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In some ways working with $100 bank and living in a skip is easier than working with a $100,000 bank and funding the good life.
If you're betting very small you can take advantage of all kinds of generous odds or mistakes that are only available to tiny amounts, whether on Betfair or with the books. And you don't end up diluting the odds by taking shorter prices to get your full amount on. When punters are struggling the advice is always to take a pull on the reins and bet less. The trouble is the advice is usually taken to mean having fewer bets or betting on fewer markets. What it should mean is have as many bets as before if you still think they're good ones, but to vastly smaller stakes. You'd be amazed how many more people could make it pay on here if they just nicked $5 on the favourite at 2.0 instead of $5 at 2.0, $5 at 1.90 and $90 at 1.85. |
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Of course discipline is an edge. In fact i'd say discipline and patience are a large part of any edge you may have in your betting. I know myself if i only bet in grade 1 races over flat and jumps i'd have a lot more cash than i have now. I know i can sort them out well in advance to a good strike rate,but i don't just stick to those races because i don't have the patience and discipline edge.
Bit surprised some people don't see this. Maybe discipline is second nature to them? |
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There is no edge, Pythagoras circa 6th Century BC
I'm living near the edge, Bono circa 1984 |
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By itself, discipline is not an edge.
You can have discipline...... but ,without having an edge or edges, you will lose long term. Wish I had better discipline though.........as , certainly with horse racing, it is a huge plus to exploiting any edge you have. |