of course you are never going to discover the golden nugget reading these forums ,
but to progress , no matter how far you are up the ladder,
you need to continually learn and develope your " betting plans ",
if nothing else ...reminding yourself what not to do ..helps  and keeps discpline..we all need that !
and making one think about your ways ..helps to develope ,
progress ..we all need that ..those further up the ladder will of course get less from the forums , but shouldnt be negative at those wishing to climb ,
plechy ...others are right , imo ,
stop looking for magic formula ..there isnt one !
good judgement....right picks , right lays , right PRICES ,..these are the most important,
if you are at a loss...dont be in a rush to win a fortune ...take your time,
else you do money experimenting ,
bet small stakes as tests ..you will find  " the edge "  if you keep at it ,
i had bit of losing run ..chased when i shouldnt ,
spent a whole day reading just about all the general betting threads ,
no golden nuggets ...but started me thinking ..and gave me a few ideas ..so far doing ok ,
slow but sure climbing the ladder..fgood luck
p.s. sorry about my spelling

kenilworth
Right prices?
If you lose it doesn't matter what the price was?
If you win, the price is only relevant as far as it wasn't a stupid price.
Don't kid yourself that you are getting value more often than not.
You're always betting at the bookies' prices, unless you are making the book.
Sure the bookies occasionally get it wrong in the short term, but long term they don't.
If you bet day after day trying to pick the bookies' prices off, the I'm afraid to say that you just grinding yourself into eventual oblivion.
Why do you think bookies ban people big winners.
Because big winners kill them with their staking strategies.
Not their ability to pick off a few percentage points in the prices.

kenilworth, do you really know everything

[b]expat[/b], No, not everything, just enough for me to concentrate on
and make this game pay.

Kenilworth
You sound like someone trying to convince himself.
I understand exactly what you and others on here are saying.
After all it's not too difficult is it .
I just choose not to accept what you say is true. Not that you don't make money, just not serious money.
Value only exists in a material long term sense if you're making a book.
Any other examples of value are so episodic and immaterial to be worthless in the long term.
To the person below, who said that staking is the cart with the horse being value prices.
Well I strongly disagree.
But betting is really just all about people having opposite opinions.
And as this discussion is about betting, it's not surprising there is disagreement.
I wish you all well in your betting endeavours, but I don't think for a moment that any of you have shown on here that you have any special edge or talents.
A few are more organised and conscientous about how they go about things than others, but that's all.
Btw my personal gambling results are neither here nor there, when it comes to theoretical discussions on gambling methods and success.
Some of the smartest economic professors in the world are virtually paupers, when compared to their Wall Street counterparts.
Also, as I have repeatedly said, it would do me more harm than good to divulge whether or not I can back up my beliefs with results.

Fine as frog hair, you're previous post needed and that is what I did.
Regards my punting, my Betfair account tells me I am getting things
mainly right. You are correct if you think I make money, but not
serious money as some of the markets I bet in have limited liquidity
and quite often get matched only to a fraction of my moderate bet,
but I don't mind that. Sometimes I can put up 6 or 7 bets but get
nothing matched and I accept that, refusing to bend and accepting
no bet, that is important. In fact, when that happens I am quite
happy, and would be nervous if I got loads of bets matched, it would
be telling me perhaps I have got something wrong.GL.

Keni
Well let's leave it at that then.
If I knew and replicated exactly what you do, then it would do your profits no good whatsoever.
And vice versa.

Sort of my point isn't it tober.
Value assessments, if you're not running the book, all boil down to subjective decisions.
You could say value is in the eye of the beholder.
As such you're probably going to get it as much wrong as right in the long run.
Of course, proponents of the only betting when they have value strategy, claim their proof lies in the fact that they are coming out ahead.
I say, maybe they are so far, but in the long run ?
I think they're swimming against the tide.
But again it's just my opinion. No more, no less.
I'll stick to my alternative hypothesis that bad value odds can be overcome long term by intelligent staking.
I do not adhere to the opinion that without value you are doomed. I think that's a cliche used by many to dismiss alternative approaches to the matter.

FINE AS FROG HAIR Joined: 12 Mar 07

I'll stick to my alternative hypothesis that bad value odds can be overcome long term by intelligent staking.

Can you give an example of how a long term loss at level stakes can be turned into a profit with the right staking?

Chelsea is the value [;)]

rem .....seeing is believing ...
debating often gets nowhere ,
perfect example..well done

REM, this part of the thread has been reasonably serious. Could you
please let us keep it that way ?

kenilworth ...i thought mythical joke was funny ,
and as for serious....it was a very very valid point he was making !
which in fact backs you up ..value is everything ,
1.01 winners wont get you far !

ops sorry i meant rem not mythical

I am the one and only223 Joined: 06 Aug 09
Replies: 380 21 Sep 10 10:01   


FINE AS FROG HAIR Joined: 12 Mar 07

Why do you think bookies ban people big winners.
Because big winners kill them with their staking strategies.
Not their ability to pick off a few percentage points in the prices.

You're putting the caravan before the car.  If you aren't getting value prices over the long run, you'll lose whatever your staking plan is.  And if you have the best staking strategy in the world, you'll lose unless you are backing at value prices.

absolutely. the idea that frog hair seems to be implying, that trying to back things at what you perceive to be value, is a strategy that is doomed to failure in the long run, and the only way around that is extravagant staking plans, seems a strangely depressing not to say illogical way of approaching gambling.

All this talk of value, here's a live example...

Take a look at the Rapid Bucharest match that kicked off at 18.30, correct score market 0-0 graph. Only small amounts, but money was being traded at around 10.0 pre kick off, then straight out to 20.0 after kick off. That's the sort of value to seek, laying at 10's when the price should be nearer 20's.

Mythical - I did lay Man Utd at 1.02 when they led 2-0, but hopes of then laying the draw when it went 2-2 were not tempting at odds of 1.60+. That's all they drifted to before Man U got their winner. Still, the Pool at least gave me a brief run for my money.

I'll be looking for short odds lays in the dying mins again tonight.

GL all.

I agree 100% with everything Ken has posted in this thread for what it is worth.

Price is all important. If you don't bet at the correct price you will either be a loser or if you are a winner you will not have as much money in your account as you ought to have.

I'm not saying the price should drive your decision to back a team, but it DEFINITELY should stop you getting involved when the odds are too low.

It's easy to price up a match after the event. 1.01, 1000 & 1000. It's what you do before that counts, imvho & Ken's too I think.

plechy, it seems crazy to me that you didn't lock in a profit having laid something at 1.02 which then drifts out to 1.6, but each to their own. for me it just seems plain wrong that you have laid something at 1.02, got that right, and still made a loss on the match!

The road to fortune is the road untrod by others.
In the case of looking for and exploiting value prices, you are all just going down the well worn paths of others.
What really makes you think you can do what most others have failed to do.
Ego? Better work ethic ? Original thoughts on the matter ?
Beats me where you're all coming from on this.
I prefer to try to discover ideas perhaps unthought of or explored by others.
I think I have a record to back this up. I have a degree in maths, so am pretty numerate.
I retired at a relatively young age to live off patent royalties , where I still am.
I invented something where all the so-called experts were looking the other way for many, many years.
(I can't reveal what this is either, this time for confidentiality covenants).
For some quirky reason, my mind sometimes goes in directions others don't.
I'm not saying that such thought processes always turn out to be fruitful, but they do sometimes lead into interesting areas of research.
God knows I need this to keep myself from getting extremely bored.
My thoughts on betting involve sorting through situations where many double negatives come into play.
I'm not saying that my ideas on staking apply to all markets across the board.
For your own sakes, please do not always dismiss out of hand all ideas that do not conform with your own ways of thinking.
Kepp open minds about all ideas at all times.
You will gain more in the long run from that approach.
Betting in a creowded field where all others are on the same wavelength is not the answer. Of that I am absolutely sure, if nothing else.