General Betting
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Impossible to win long-term by BACKING in football
Impossible to win long-term by BACKING in football
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Replies: 342
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bren - blew £1 on City by laying them.
FAFH - I'll take that kind of disadvantage anyway, thanks. Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£) Juventus 1.03 10.00 Lay 16-Sep-10 19:49 10.00 Back subtotal: 0.00 Lay subtotal: 10.00 Market subtotal: 10.00 Commission @ 5%: 0.50 Net Market Total: 9.50 |
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Plechy
Well at least you must be admitting, subconsciously at least, that you're only doing this for fun, not money. That's perfectly OK. Most on here can't or won't admit that truism. |
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Plechy - You mentioned the BARCA game.....but did you give ANY consideration to fact they had a CL game looming up?
Did you give any consideration to fact some players were missing ...especially in defence. I think SPAIN also played ARGENTINA a few days before the HERCULES match....did you consider the effect on BARCA players who probably were in team against ARGENTINA, and MESSI presumably played too???? Did you consider it is also early in Spanish season, so players are fully match fit....sharp in front of goal etc.? All the above factors can contribute to "shock" results..... Look at some of teams involved in EUFA LEAGUE games and how they fared in league game before tonights' game :- EUFA teams in BOLD 11/09/10 1.H Hajduk Split 1 - 1 Dinamo Zagreb 12/09/10 SEA Brescia 3 - 2 Palermo 12/09/10 PRL Lokomotiv Moskva 1 - 0 CSKA Moskva 11/09/10 PRL Manchester City 1 - 1 Blackburn Rovers 12/09/10 SEA Juventus 3 - 3 Sampdoria 11/09/10 BUN Hannover 96 2 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen 11/09/10 POL Sporting Lisbon 0 - 0 Olhanense Need I post any more........ |
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UEFA
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Especially after a few pints I fawwwwwwwwww
 YUP....been a "long day" TTT...........................but the point still relevant.... |
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DFC - Yes, of course Europe and internationals are a factor for consideration. So what's new? The same applied last season and the season before that too . . . but Barca didn't lose 2-0 at home to a side as lowly ranked as Hercules - in the LEAGUE.
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He's only trying to help you Plechy.
Btw how do past statistics help you if a team is in gradual decline, as always happens, even to the best of them. Odd results start creeping in, more and more regularly as time goes by. Past results are exactly what they are. Past. |
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Btw I have no idea how you really eastablish whether a bet is good or bad value, unless you can manage always to get on the bid side.
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As I said, we're all just guessing gamblers.
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in that case you are posting your thoughts way too much on a betting forum. perhaps you should stop banging on about how historical results are no guide to the future. they are the absolute KEY . Other factors may be important, such as upcoming cup games as suggested previously, but your starting point has to be past results, analysed either quantitatively or qualitatively. this is the cornerstone of successful betting. everything else is guesswork.
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losers - past results mean absolute naff-all. Losing/winning streaks will all end some time, most of them some time very soon.
It's the here and now, and the million and one variables in football that will screw you up at any second in the 90+. |
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oh lord. i guess be pleased really, but seriously. what are you talking about ? if you are looking for certainties, put your money in a savings account. the idea of betting is to determine value. it is not about predicting the future. to determine value you have to make an attempt to calculate the odds yourself. this is done by looking at past performance. this can be done in many ways, but that is the starting point. the concept is not tricky, although some of you guys don't seem to grasp it. the practice is more difficult.
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** i guess i should be pleased
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To have laid Newcastle, as you seem to be suggesting I should have done with your throwaway one-liner, implies that I should routinely oppose every price I don't consider to be right at the time
Yeah , thats exactly what you should do. |
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^
There is a second way to find value, that involves studying price data rather than (or alongside) performance data. |
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Plechy Joined: 27 Dec 05
Replies: 110 16 Sep 10 21:45 DFC - Yes, of course Europe and internationals are a factor for consideration. So what's new? The same applied last season and the season before that too . . . ========================================================== If you CHECK past results for last season you will find that BARCA did not WIN games prior to playing at least 3 matches in CL. So was the CL games a factor to them not winning.....IMO ...YES! If you CHECK the season before they DREW at home 1-1 against RACING SANTANDER before playing against SPORTING LISBON.They also drew 1-1 against GETAFE at home before playing SPORTING LISBON away. They also LOST AT HOME 1-2 to ESPANYOL before playing OLYMP LYON ....They DREW away against VALENCIA before playing CHELSEA in CL etc etc The point being THIS IS A RECURRING type of "odd" result that you can get with TOP TEAMS ....BEFORE and sometimes AFTER important games in CL. OK losing at home 0-2 recently was not "easy" to see.......but some of their DRAWS were not easy to see or defeat from ESPANYOL etc etc in previous seasons. You just have to be wary of BIG CLUBS who consider CL more important than a league game....so factoring in such FACTORS as CL /EUFA/INTERNATIONAL matches are just somethingthat should be weighed up. Although it is far easier saying the above than actually doing ....but there will be a few big players on BF that will do this and they will know when to back and when to lay. As K said ...each game should be weighed up on its own merit ...or words something similar. |
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Plechy
past results mean absolute naff-all. Losing/winning streaks will all end some time, most of them some time very soon. No disrespect here but I wouldn't have a bet without past results in forms 90% of my selection criteria loserschaselosers I win every season on football ( bar last season ) and I never make an attempt to calculate the odds - value doesn't need to be determined by price only as suggested |
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Can anybody clearly explain how years of past performances set the odds for current prices.?
I can see how a few recent matches can set the form parameters, but that's all. |
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After all team makeups change from year to year. Managers change from year to year. Team finances change from year to year.
All these things have more of an effect that simple past performances surely? |
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[b]DFCIRONMAN[/b] must be the most blatant after timer on this
forum and he has now told us why Barcelona should have been opposed in their defeat recently. Breathtaking. |
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Breathtaking or perhaps brilliant ?
Maybe he is that good. Who knows ? |
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kenilworth - As usual you come out with nothing but yet another personal attack on me.
Rarely have I seen you express an opinion on a match BEFORE a game on here (GEN BETTING that is). You totally missed the point being made! Plechy had made disparaging remarks re STATS.....as you also have done too on here.....and STATS are relevant whether you like it or not to how a game can go. He stated that BARCA "didn't lose 2-0 at home to a side as lowly ranked as Hercules - in the LEAGUE." All I did was check their stats for only 2 seasons...and there were results prior to CL games where 0-0 draws and loss was inflicted AT HOME IN LEAGUE GAMES. I think Plechy also did make a comment early on re them not being involved in an OVER 2,5 goals game against HERCULES.........................again my comment specifically shows that , like many BIG TEAMS prior to CL/EUFA games, you have to be "WARY" of assuming they will win...assuming they will rip "lowly ranked" teams apart. THE STATS RE "BIG TEAMS" SHOW THAT YOU GOTTA BE "WARY" OF MAKING ASSUMPTIONS. Not only STATS are important, but also the CIRCUMSTANCES prior to game and after game factors are important, as well as other factors. I just said ...you gotta be "wary" of BIG TEAMS ( not just BARCA ....and it was a statement re games to come ....not past game re BARCA) who consider CL matches as ultra important....which they are financially. So all your nonsense re me "after-timing" is irrelevant .............and only you ...once again just launching a personal attack on me. BTW - this point re being "wary" of BIG TEAMS prior to CL games...and also prior to INTERNATIONAL matches has been made by me NUMEROUS TIMES on threads.........so this was BEFORE -TIMING ....not AFTER-TIMING you muppet! |
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Scotbet ~ do you really mean that ? you may not explicitly calculate a hard number, but you have to determine whether the odds reflect the chances of the outcome. presumably everybody thinks chelsea will win this weekend, even layers, but the question is do you think the chances of them winning is 90% as the market suggests. i think it is perfectly reasonable to think something like "yes Chelsea would normally be about 90% but they've been on the road in europe this week, so perhaps the chances of them winning are less than this. i don't know how much but enough to make it worth laying them @ 1.11" . in this case you haven't calculated their odds, but you have made an assessment of the likely outcome compared to the market odds.
fwiw, i don't take this qualitative approach. i try to quantify as many relevant variables as i can. my method is completely automated with amongst other things a european factor priced in. |
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A couple of games last night proved my own point at a cost to myself.
I backed 0-0 before the start of the Liverpool game, hoping to trade out around half-time. Without Torres and Gerrard, just didn't expect them to cause Steaua many problems, and Hodgson is cautious by nature. Also backed Under 2.5 for very small stakes for the seam reasons. When Steaua equalised, I laid Liverpool because. in my eyes, Steaua were controlling the game, playing better opossession football and clearly had a classy striker judging by how he tucked their goal away. But here again was anotgetr case of fotball logic going out of the window. After 28 seconds - YES, 28 SECONDS, the Steaua CB woefully underhits a backpass and Joe Cole scores, thankyou very nuch. That's the first bets down the Swanee and the other one in serious peril. Then, inexplicably, the ref decides to award Liverpool a penalty from which they make it 2-1. Yes, there might well have been an infringement, but of the kind that happens 2,678 times a game, in EVERY game, whenever a corner kick is awarded. I rest my case that incompetent players and officials are at the root of many lost bets. On the other hand, I laid Juventus (1.03) at home to that Polish team when they were winning 3-2 with just a few mins to go, having come from 2-0 down. Juve then obliged by conceding an equaliser in time added on. Never trust Italians teams to do what they ought to! But like a fool, I only laid them for a tenner (30p liability) instead of my usual £100. So by ignoring my own advice, I won £9.50 on the Juve lay rather than £95! The moral of this story is that you have to listen to yourself and always stick by your guns no matter what, and keep reminding yourself that there is no logic to football much of the time. |
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Plechy - some people would consider not having GERRARD and TORRES in team is a big plus for LIVERPOOL....obviously you don't!
When GERRARD plays...the play is all too predictable.....not all GERRARD's fault....but nevertheless, opposition teams can arrange set up to play against LIVERPOOL. A fully fit GERRARD is a big plus for any team....but he does have limitations as well. TORRES has not been match fit for ages.........and seems to being over careful re injury when going into tackles. If he was fully fit .....then YES he would be in most teams, though he does have limitations too as he relies on pace and aggression, tending to "do it himself" ....unlike a striker say like FORLAN who does have pace + intelligent aggression + wider vision than TORRES. I am just making a devil's advocate post re GERRARD + TORRES not been in the team..............not "after-timing" as i have said this often re GERRARD . Your comment re the away team looking the better team 1st half is ok and I agree with .......however, when a team puts so much effort into a 1st half performance, most teams CANNOT MAINTAIN THAT LEVEL OF PERFORMANCE 2ND HALF. So did you allow for them waining 2nd half....and LIVERPOOL pacing game better? IF.......the away team had scored and taken the lead 1st half.....nobody could say they did not deserve lead.......but they failed to do so.....and their physical effort 1st half took its toll 2nd half. With there being a new coach at LIVERPOOL..............do you think such an experienced coach would put out a team that would not be good enough to win? He wants to make his mark in history books of LIVERPOOL FC......so LAYING LIVERPOOL was a dodgy bet IMO as you ignored the away team may have put in too much effort 1st half. JUVE had a hard game at w/e....and drew 3-3 with SAMPDORIA......so is it surprising that, having had another hard game where they were 2 goals down , they lost a late goal???? When you say "Never trust Italians teams to do what they ought to!".....do you mean INTER ? It appears your "perceived" view on teams "ought to do" does not take any account of what physical exertions they may have had in previous game or current game.... You were "unlucky" on the 0-0 back with LIVERPOOL though....but that is football.....goals can come at any time of match. You are well be "right" in that sticking to MATCH MARKET ONLY and only betting a BACK in games is likely a LOSING way to bet. IMO you should appraise EACH GAME ON ITS MERITS, AND THEN CHECK VARIOUS MARKETS TO SEE WHERE YOU FEEL THE VALUE IS IN ODDS. Just backing in MATCH MARKET is likely to be very difficult to win...and it is more likely you lose. GL with bets....as with football we all need that.....as well as taking as many factors into account as you believe are appropriate to each match. |
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Top insight as usual DFC.
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FAFH - there are many ways to form an opinion about the price of a football match. The people who put the prices up tend to be number crunchers. I like to crunch numbers. DFC deconstructs a match. You've just got to find what you're comfortbale with and can afford the time for.
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Can anybody clearly explain how years of past performances set the odds for current prices.?
I can see how a few recent matches can set the form parameters, but that's all. You can't price a game up based on 'a few recent matches' .What do you do if United go 4 games without a win? Make them underdogs vs Bolton  Football Matches have to be priced up on the abilty of the teams . The last few games can be very misleading as to abilty as teams are in and out of form during the season. No one would make Bolton favourites vs United , no matter how well or badly each had played in the preceding month , because it would still be plain that United were the far better team, based on what they had done in the previous year, 18 months or so. You accord each team a rating based on abilty and this converts to prices , you adjust your rating over time when you think the team has improved or declined . The abilty of most teams will change slowly over time .Players leave the club yes , but in most cases are replaced by others of similar abilty. Only where you have a complete overhaul of personnel, such as Man City or Portsmouth would you make drastic reassesments. |
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I can see how past performances lead to the establishment of a top tier of clubs in the top league divisions.
And I can see how this is relevant when these clubs are playing others clearly not in this tier. But otherwise, it's must all be " educated " guesses at best. Let's face it when you have 22 players on the ptch all trying to play to a manager's instructions, but fckin it up more often than not, anything can, and does, happen. |
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Also let's be blunt.
Any price you establish simply is saying that you think that the probability of a team winning a match is x% or above. I find it hard to believe that such a probability level can be accurately assessed. If the bookmakers couldn't largely green up their books and had to make predominantly one way bets all throughout the season,like the average punter does, they would probably lose just as much as everyone else. |
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Any price you establish simply is saying that you think that the probability of a team winning a match is x% or above.
I find it hard to believe that such a probability level can be accurately assessed. Yes , just using your judgement to assess the probability. If you are winning overtime then you are good at it. |
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FAFH probability is never going to be accurate in the sense that you mean. It cannot predict individual events, but it should be very close over a large sample, if calculated appropriately. The aim is to identify individual matches where there is a wide margin of disagreement (value).
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REM
A wide margin of disagreement only translates into value if you are on the winning side of the disagreement. You won't know that till after the fact unfortunately. |
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Tober
It all boils down to one man's opinion over another's. I suppose you could say that an Andy Gray should be able to get it right more than the average punter. But that's not saying he will get it right often enough to beat the odds long term. |
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you keep talking ..............
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FINE AS FROG HAIR Joined: 12 Mar 07
Replies: 491 17 Sep 10 19:03 REM A wide margin of disagreement only translates into value if you are on the winning side of the disagreement. You won't know that till after the fact unfortunately. I hear this kind of thing a lot. If we toss a coin, and you bet £1, which you lose if it is tails, and if it's head I give you back £10, you are getting value. If the coin lands on tails meaning you lose, it doesn't change the fact that you got value. The only thing that should change your assumption about whether or not you are getting value, is new information and insights,individual results play only a small part. Making a profit serves as evidence that you are getting value, but not as proof. If we keep playing this game, and you lose 90% of the time, you may change your assumption that the coin has a 50% chance of landing on heads, and the edge you thought you had doesn't exist. The next time Arsenal play Manchester United, I will give you odds of 10/1 that there will be less than 7 goals. I maintain that even if the game ends in 5-5, I will still have gotten value on this bet, regardless of the outcome. I need very little information about team line-ups etc, or fundamental changes to the game or even the rules. I could even offer you the same odds for the first time Arsenal and Man U play each other in 2020. More uncertainty, but my edge should be only slightly worse. |
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I don't disagree with what you say about value at all Investor.
Except it's not relevant to the sutuation where I raised it. Which is a situation where there is a wide range of disagreement. Somebody has value perhaps, but who ? |
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Loser
No I keep raising points to which you have no real good answer I'm afraid to say. No matter. We're not the only contributors to the thread ( thank God for that perhaps ). |
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FINE AS FROG HAIR, what do you mean by 'wide range of disagreement'?
Volatile odds or a big back-lay spread, or something else? |
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loserschaselosers Joined: 30 Jan 02
Replies: 383 17 Sep 10 10:37 Scotbet ~ do you really mean that ? you may not explicitly calculate a hard number, but you have to determine whether the odds reflect the chances of the outcome yes - however I do buy into what you've said now - you have to determine odds vs chances winning - important too - but for me it's only 1 part of the equation - obtaining the right games is equally important |