General Betting
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I have been offered 14/1 about a team to score 10 goals in a prem league game this season.
With all teams having played 2 that means there are 324 games left to play by my reckoning.
How do i therefore work out the price I am being offered on each game please ?
I know its not likely to happen and certain teams cant/wont do it but those are the odds and games remaining.
Thanks
With all teams having played 2 that means there are 324 games left to play by my reckoning.
How do i therefore work out the price I am being offered on each game please ?
I know its not likely to happen and certain teams cant/wont do it but those are the odds and games remaining.
Thanks
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Replies: 62
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My apologies, there are 360 games in total to play.
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The highest previous score is 9-0 ManU Ipswich in 1995.
Highest number in a match was 7-4 Pompey Reading Probability of 10 goals from a team is about nil. 360 X 2 teams X 0 = zero. These bets are dangled strictly for the mugs but when people see 6-0 scores they think that 10 is only 4 more so why not? |
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14/1??
fourteen to one FOURTEEN TO ONE FOURTEEN TO ONE 14/1? Are you mad? [smiley:crazy] |
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Thanks for the replies lads, I take it you dont know the answer.
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A simple calculation produces approximate odds of 5217/1.
If the odds are 14/1 (probability 0.06666666) to occur in 1 or more of the 360 games, then the odds are 1/14 (probability 0.93333333) to occur in 0 of the 360 games. So the probability to not occur in one single game is 0.93333333 to the power of (1/360) = 0.99980837 (approximate odds of 1/5217). i.e. the odds of 1/14 are equivalent to a 360 leg accumulator with each leg’s odds at 1/5217 Therefore the probability to occur in one single game is 1 - 0.99980837 = 0.0019163 (approximate odds of 5217/1) This obviously assumes that every match has the same probabability, to have a team scoring 10 goals or more, whereas some games will have a slightly higher/lower chance, albeit still a relatively low probability, of occuring than others. |
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Thats what I was looking for, thanks Dave.
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so is 14/1 value or not?
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I think so and will be backing it, obviously a lot of others dont think so and like to shout from behind their keyboards without offering odds themselves.
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I'd hold out for 16/1
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I'll give you 20/1
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This was 100/1 2 years ago and 50/1 last year.
14/1 can't be value. Might still win but i'm sure any bookie worth his salt (there's not many around these days) would lay you the biggest bet you wanted. Could always email betfair and ask for a specials market. I suspect the price would settle more around the 34-50 mark tbh. Good luck with the bet. |
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You could estimate the probability using the poisson distribution (look on wikipedia). Basically the poisson dist. is used when x events (eg goals) occur within a time period, and you know how the expected number of occurrences.
Say the long term average is 2 goals per game per team (this seems high? I don't watch football). Probability of 10 goals by one team in one game is 2 ^ 10 * e ^ -2 / 10! = 0.00003819. Probability of less (hmm.. or more) than 10 is 1 - 0.00003819 = 0.99996181 360 games and 2 teams, so 0.99996181 ^ 360 * 2 = 0.972877285 probability that exactly 10 goals not scored in 360 games = 1 - 0.972877285 = 0.027122715 37/1. you would need to repeat for 11 goals, 12 goals, 13 goals ... and sum them, but I don't think it would come anywhere near 14/1. |
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cornubia Joined: 05 Nov 08
Replies: 99 24 Aug 10 19:33 The highest previous score is 9-0 ManU Ipswich in 1995. Spurs also hit 9 against Wigan last season. (9-1) |
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The Investor Joined: 05 Jun 06
Replies: 2308 24 Aug 10 21:56 I'll give you 20/1 If I can get on with you mate I'll have £200 at that price please, Do you have a bookies or does it have to be with Betfair ? |
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Palchneru's method will give you some sort of idea of the probability - but the Poisson model is a very approximate one for goal distributions in football matches, and breaks down significantly in precisely this sort of high-scoring case. So, the actual number matches in which 10+ goals are scored by one team would be quite a lot higher than that predicted by Poisson.
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Mallet,
I'll give you 25/1 |
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Email Betfair and ask them to put up a market.
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quality fishing
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Email sent.
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I'd be a season long player in this market if they put it up.
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14/1 for any of the 20 teams to score 10? This looks a good bet to me. With about 11 of the teams at 1000 on Betfair to win the title. There are going to be big mismatches every weekend. I can't remember a division in which the gap between top teams and the bottom half has looked so big. 6 goals is coming easily already, and Chelsea weren't even trying against Wigan until half time. And its hard to see Wigan and Blackpool improving.
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So 25 games are going to see one team hit 10 or more this season when no one has ever hit 10 before in history?
Betfair - Sharp Minds indeed  |
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Sorry, that's no quite right. Possibly even bollox, but how can anyone want to take that 14/1??
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Is the bet for an English Prem team or for any prem team in Europe or what? Where does 360 games come from?
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Wonder if there was a price pre season on a game to have no corners [>o]
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What do you think fair odds would be for that Lori?
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Wedged
The bet is for any team in the Prem to score 10 or more in a league game this season. Each team has 36 games left to play so that means there are 360 games left to play. 25/1 is the price now if I can get betfair to put a market up which is a price I would be happy to take. |
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Not sure Investor, given that it hadn't happened since 1934 (I think) I'd have to have built it up from how many times there was 1,2,3,4 I suspect.
Pretty sure that my price would have been quite a lot longer than it would be now as it's always an interesting problem when a huge longshot suddenly happens as to how you allow for changing times vs just a freak occurence. |
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hi guys it might look a good bet just now with goals flying in, but its still a team scoring every nine minutes which looks impossible in a premier league if you ask me,lets put it a other way how long has the premier nbeen going sop if they would have gave you that bet at i million to one a team scoring ten in the next ten years in one game ten years ago you would have lost,you cant have a mathamatical answer to your question but im sure if you had to get true odds of it happening as close as is fair,i think a 500/1 would be abet fair bet
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spelling crap sorry, but my point is no dont take anything under at least 200/1 mate
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What game had no corners? Lucky me anyway as I have been laying no first corner lately and missed out on that one...
Might not be value after all... |
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Interesting piece on corners from a few years ago:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2006/feb/10/newsstory.sport3 |
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I took 25/1 about another "9" after Spurs beat Wigan last year and got some derision on here until I pointed out that it was roughly equivalent to 5000/1 each game for the rest of the season. And Drogba had a shot for it in injury time on the last day of the season
 Another way of looking at it is to think whether you'd expect it to happen over the next (say) 10 years. I would. |
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Betfair have said they will not be putting up this market.
Bushy thats exactly what I was getting at, if I took 25/1 then it would equate to around 5500/1 on every single game still to play. If United needed 10 against Blackpool/Wigan/West Brom or a couple of other teams would you still make it a 5500/1 shot ? |
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I don't have a bookie. My offer of 20/1 still stands if we can arrange it somehow.
... Then I'll back at 25/1 with Contrarian [;)] |
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LOL Investor.
My offer is genuine. If we can find some way to make the bet securely, then I'll be happy to do it. |
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Whereabouts are you contrarian ?
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just look where everyone else is not
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Contrarian, I suggest that next time somoene says "I'll have £200 at that price please", you say "I'll go halves on that with Investor", rather than offering a better price. [;)]
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