Maths question I need help with please.

My apologies, there are 360 games in total to play.

The highest previous score is 9-0 ManU Ipswich in 1995.
Highest number in a match was 7-4 Pompey Reading
Probability of 10 goals from a team is about nil.
360  X  2 teams  X 0 = zero.
These bets are dangled strictly for the mugs but when people see 6-0 scores they think that 10 is only 4 more so why not?

14/1??

fourteen to one

FOURTEEN TO ONE

FOURTEEN TO ONE

14/1?


Are you mad?  [smiley:crazy]

Thanks for the replies lads, I take it you dont know the answer.

A simple calculation produces approximate odds of 5217/1.

If the odds are 14/1 (probability 0.06666666) to occur in 1 or more of the 360 games, then the odds are 1/14 (probability 0.93333333) to occur in 0 of the 360 games.

So the probability to not occur in one single game is 0.93333333 to the power of (1/360) = 0.99980837 (approximate odds of 1/5217).

i.e. the odds of 1/14 are equivalent to a 360 leg accumulator with each leg’s odds at 1/5217

Therefore the probability to occur in one single game is 1 - 0.99980837 = 0.0019163 (approximate odds of 5217/1)

This obviously assumes that every match has the same probabability, to have a team scoring 10 goals or more, whereas some games will have a slightly higher/lower chance, albeit still a relatively low probability, of occuring than others.

Thats what I was looking for, thanks Dave.

so is 14/1 value or not?

I think so and will be backing it, obviously a lot of others dont think so and like to shout from behind their keyboards without offering odds themselves.

I'd hold out for 16/1

I'll give you 20/1

This was 100/1 2 years ago and 50/1 last year.

14/1 can't be value. Might still win but i'm sure any bookie worth his salt (there's not many around these days) would lay you the biggest bet you wanted.

Could always email betfair and ask for a specials market. I suspect the price would settle more around the 34-50 mark tbh. Good luck with the bet.

You could estimate the probability using the poisson distribution (look on wikipedia).  Basically the poisson dist. is used when x events (eg goals) occur within a time period, and you know how the expected number of occurrences.

Say the long term average is 2 goals per game per team (this seems high?  I don't watch football).

Probability of 10 goals by one team in one game is 2 ^ 10 * e ^ -2 / 10! = 0.00003819.

Probability of less (hmm.. or more) than 10 is 1 - 0.00003819 = 0.99996181

360 games and 2 teams, so 0.99996181 ^ 360 * 2 = 0.972877285

probability that exactly 10 goals not scored in 360 games = 1 - 0.972877285 = 0.027122715

37/1.

you would need to repeat for 11 goals, 12 goals, 13 goals ... and sum them, but I don't think it would come anywhere near 14/1.

cornubia Joined: 05 Nov 08
Replies: 99 24 Aug 10 19:33   


The highest previous score is 9-0 ManU Ipswich in 1995.

Spurs also hit 9 against Wigan last season. (9-1)

The Investor Joined: 05 Jun 06
Replies: 2308 24 Aug 10 21:56   


I'll give you 20/1

If I can get on with you mate I'll have £200 at that price please,
Do you have a bookies or does it have to be with Betfair ?

Palchneru's method will give you some sort of idea of the probability - but the Poisson model is a very approximate one for goal distributions in football matches, and breaks down significantly in precisely this sort of high-scoring case. So, the actual number matches in which 10+ goals are scored by one team would be quite a lot higher than that predicted by Poisson.

Mallet,

I'll give you 25/1

Email Betfair and ask them to put up a market.

quality fishing

Email sent.

I'd be a season long player in this market if they put it up.

14/1 for any of the 20 teams to score 10?  This looks a good bet to me. With about 11 of the teams at 1000 on Betfair to win the title. There are going to be big mismatches every weekend. I can't remember a division in which the gap between top teams and the bottom half has looked so big. 6 goals is coming easily already, and Chelsea weren't even trying against Wigan until half time.  And its hard to see Wigan and Blackpool improving.

So 25 games are going to see one team hit 10 or more this season when no one has ever hit 10 before in history?

Betfair - Sharp Minds indeed

Sorry, that's no quite right. Possibly even bollox, but how can anyone want to take that 14/1??

Is the bet for an English Prem team or for any prem team in Europe or what? Where does 360 games come from?

Wonder if there was a price pre season on a game to have no corners [>o]

What do you think fair odds would be for that Lori?

Wedged
The bet is for any team in the Prem to score 10 or more in a league game this season.
Each team has 36 games left to play so that means there are 360 games left to play.
25/1 is the price now if I can get betfair to put a market up which is a price I would be happy to take.

Not sure Investor, given that it hadn't happened since 1934 (I think) I'd have to have built it up from how many times there was 1,2,3,4 I suspect.

Pretty sure that my price would have been quite a lot longer than it would be now as it's always an interesting problem when a huge longshot suddenly happens as to how you allow for changing times vs just a freak occurence.

hi guys it might look a good bet just now with goals flying in, but its still a team scoring every nine minutes which looks impossible in a premier league if you ask me,lets put it a other way how long has the premier nbeen going sop if they would have gave you that bet at i million to one a team scoring ten in the next ten years  in one game ten years ago you would have lost,you cant have a mathamatical answer to your question but im sure if you had to get true odds of it happening as close as is fair,i think a 500/1 would be abet fair bet

spelling crap sorry, but my point is no  dont take anything under at least 200/1 mate

What game had no corners? Lucky me anyway as I have been laying no first corner lately and missed out on that one...

Might not be value after all...

Interesting piece on corners from a few years ago:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2006/feb/10/newsstory.sport3

I took 25/1 about another "9" after Spurs beat Wigan last year and got some derision on here until I pointed out that it was roughly equivalent to 5000/1 each game for the rest of the season.  And Drogba had a shot for it in injury time on the last day of the season

Another way of looking at it is to think whether you'd expect it to happen over the next (say) 10 years.  I would.

Betfair have said they will not be putting up this market.
Bushy thats exactly what I was getting at, if I took 25/1 then it would equate to around 5500/1 on every single game still to play.
If United needed 10 against Blackpool/Wigan/West Brom or a couple of other teams would you still make it a 5500/1 shot ?

I don't have a bookie. My offer of 20/1 still stands if we can arrange it somehow.

... Then I'll back at 25/1 with Contrarian [;)]

LOL Investor.

My offer is genuine. If we can find some way to make the bet securely, then I'll be happy to do it.

Whereabouts are you contrarian ?

just look where everyone else is not

Contrarian, I suggest that next time somoene says "I'll have £200 at that price please", you say "I'll go halves on that with Investor", rather than offering a better price. [;)]

I reckon Chelsea must be evens just by themselves.

The  odds  of  any  team  scoring  10 goals in any  match in  the  prem  this  season  are  5531/1 against . the  odds  of you  naming  that  team are   1 million .. why  1 million  thats  most   bookies  limit .

Thats only an approximation zipper which assumes all teams are the same standard. They are not. And that makes it much more likely. Now I'm not saying 14-1 is a great price but I'll have a ton on chelsea at 1000-1 if you care to lay me?

Slay  no can do,  why  if you think zip  would  tie  up  100k    for  5  months  to win a  miserable £100 quid    would  you .

As for it being impossible to score a goal every 9 minutes in the premier league; I have to disagree with this assumption.  Teams can score goals in consecutive minutes. Also, its not unusual for a team to score 3 goals in 10 minutes. So there could be 20 minutes without the team scoring, yet they could still score 10. Going back to the Wigan Chelsea match: Chelsea seemed to sit back casually in the first half and seemed content to allow Wigan the majority of the possession. When they did go all out for the attack in the second half, they scored 5. Wigan seemed absolutely powerless to even deflect the shots on target, hence the lack of corners. In the return game at Stamford Bridge, I expect Chelsea to attack in both halves.

Marksman  in the  return game   for  Chelsea  to  score  10  v Wigan   on  here  in  running  you  can be on big  time  fill you boots .

Mallethead,

I'm in N. London - Islington.

Well Im up in Stockport but Im sure there is a way we can do this.
Any ideas ?

If you pay me 5% of the winnings I'll arrange it all.

SuecoLoco Joined: 27 Mar 04
Replies: 5 26 Aug 10 05:54   


What game had no corners? Lucky me anyway as I have been laying no first corner lately and missed out on that one...

Might not be value after all...


Wigan vs Chelsea.

Haven't read this thread yet but going on 128861 games throughout mainly Europe the probability is 0.0000388015.  So you needs odds of greater than 25,772.2 to be a value bet.  In traditional odds that would be 25772.2/1

No that's for any one game.  If you have around 300 games or more, then it's a bit more complex to work out.  But it will be greater than 14/1

OK, decimal odds of 80.04 required I think.

Cosmic,

Assuming your figure for the probability of >10 in one game is correct, I make it decimal odds of 72.

= (1 - 0.000388015)^360 = 0.986128 for it not to happen, which equates to about 72 in decimal odds.

Sorry, "(1 - 0.000388015 . ." should read "(1 - 0.0000388015 . . "

mallethead stated there are 324 games left to play.  So worked it out using the 324 figure.

Oh ok. There are actually 360 left.

I'll offer u 20/1

Lori, do you have data on that? (How many games with 1 corner, 2 corners etc.)

There is an offer of 25/1, which I am willing to accept if we can get it sorted.

I don't Investor, although I believe it's quite easy to find (There are a lot of soccer stats sites... not that I know what they're called, pretty sure they'd show on google though)

WHAT??!?!?! Is this right, literallly last week Saturday 21 August 2010, Wigan 0 - Chelsea 6, had no cornes

I didn't even realize that's what you were referring to.

Yep, that's the one!

Been a couple of others with significant periods of no corners too I believe.