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General Betting
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These 145 comments are related to the topic:
if you had a bank of 10k...
if you had a bank of 10k...
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Replies: 145
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MM1, formaly known as hornets,also formally known as horsham fc,not the worst of em but daft as a brush!
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zipper is available for the next 40 minutes to take any abuse or serious questions. At 7.30 i.m taking my lovely wife to our favourite restaurant.
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Times up . good night god bless
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Value lies in the thoughts of us. Sometimes a 1-3 shot is value it's about opinions. I rarely bet under 3-1 but yesterday thought Wooton Basset was good value 15-8. Tues thought Twice Over was value at 11-2 only 2 horse bets this week. I find it harder on footy but regularly bet on Rugby and having a poor run at present
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No Name Specified
Joined: 16 Feb 10 Value is subjective. If I say my purple trousers are lovely that is subjective. Others may disagree and no-one's opinion is dominant. If I say Man Utd are 100/1 to win the premiership next year I would be objectively wrong. If I said they were 1.01 to win I would be wrong again. The fact that is very very hard to identify the exact point in between 1.01 and 100 that represents the true odds of them winning does not make it a subjective assessment. |
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 Scooby |
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Value is not subjective, but it is very difficult to pinpoint - so we need margings of error to work within if we are to profit from any meaningful analysis. If value had no meaning at all we would all willingly bet 1.01 on anything that we thought would win an event. In truth, value is everything to a punter, whether they actively look for it or not. Ask yourself, where would you be if you backed/layed at half the odds or twice the odds? The biggest mistake a punter can make is to think they have to find the most likely winner of an event. Wise advice whoever gave me that nugget.
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The biggest mistake a punter can make is to think they have to find the most likely winner of an event.
===================================================== A "punter" does not know where the likely winner of horse race will come from ...generally speaking! Surely REM if you CAN identify where the winner is likely to come from, then you have a huge advantage compared to those who are only guessing. I think you are talking from LAYING perspective......as it is NOT a big mistake to check out the odds of thoses that MIGHT win IF YOU ARE A BACKER. VALUE lies more from a BACKING perspective than a LAYING one.......eg 100-1 SP winner compared to an evens money loser is quite a differnce in return on "investment" etc. |
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i started at the beginning of this year with a bank of 2k - and am now up to 12.5k I dont leave bets hanging out there tho and I aim to greenbook most of the time. and i generally only bet on games / matches where i can watch live (or a least a live scoreboard on the net somewhere), and I dont mind taking a pounce at the last minute on a short odds favorite - but still - like "dont stop winning" said - i only use a 2% of my bank per bet - its all about money management
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DFCIRONMAN Joined: 04 Dec 04
Surely REM if you CAN identify where the winner is likely to come from, then you have a huge advantage compared to those who are only guessing. The winner can come from anywhere it's how likely each of the runners are to win that is the key. If a 500/1 shot is priced at 600/1 it is worth backing. |
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Disagree that a winner of a horse race can come from any of them generally! This is nonsense.
You don't back a horse just because the odds are higher than you think they should be.....that is flawed thinking IMO. There have to be factors in favour of a horse that give it a winning chance in a race....such as when both 100-1 SP shots won the other day...... |
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Nonsense, any horse can win in any field. You are confusing impossible with unlikely.
A 100/1 shot will win, on average, one in every hundred events - that's what it means. A 1000/1 shot will win, on average, one in every thousand events. |
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Did you back either or both of ywo 100-1 SP shots that won recently?
If not ....why not? |
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Just because I know that a 100/1 shot will win sometimes does not mean I can tell when it is going to happen. I would only have backed those horses if I thought the odds offered were higher than the true chance of them winning.
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"When it is going to happen" is the key........if you can identify horses that do have a chance to win....realistic chance to win...then generally 100-1 shots will be "value" to back.
The FACTORS must be in their favour though.......and you presumably ....if you saw these factors in favour of a horse winning would FIRST HAVE TO SEE THOSE FACTORS BEFORE YOU CAN DETERMINE "the odds offered were higher than the true chance of them winning". The FIRST stage comes before you betting on them.......if they don't have factors in favour ....you should not back em ....... So i still disagree that "that a winner of a horse race can come from any of them generally!" This is just pure nonsense GENERALLY! |
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catfloppo Joined: 16 Nov 06
Replies: 501 22 Aug 10 13:44 Nonsense, any horse can win in any field. You are confusing impossible with unlikely. A 100/1 shot will win, on average, one in every hundred events - that's what it means. A 1000/1 shot will win, on average, one in every thousand events. ====================================================================== The FACTS are - Results broken down by Year Bets Wins Win Strike Rate Win %Return at SP Placed (inc wins) Place Strike Rate Each-Way %Return at SP 2008 3177 5 0.2% 15.9% 59 1.9% 28.3% 2009 3079 7 0.2% 23.0% 82 2.7% 40.4% 2010 1696 8 0.5% 47.6% 35 2.1% 46.5% Nothing like 1 race in 100 etc etc............ |
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DFc when is it going to happen is the key nobody can dispute that this newton abbot the fav Otage De Baron will get beat in the next 10 mins
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DFC, catfloppo is right. And you have kind of just proven it. You are correct, nothing like 1 in a 100 races, hence catfloppo is saying that obviously those horses were incorrectly priced and had we bet on them we would not be getting our moneys worth over time.
Cat is saying that if we knew a horse was 200/1 but true odds of 100/1 then you keep backing those odds and over time you are in profit. 1000/1 SPs have won, a couple quite recently - so there you have it, Cats "any horse can win in any field. You are confusing impossible with unlikely." statement is true. The fact is though that we don't back the 600/1 over priced horse because A) I'm not sure anyone really ever knows true odds and B) we don't like to bet like that, over a long period of time for little return and dont get our 'fix' :) Having said that, cats theory/statements are right. |
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No one can say when it is going to happen. You can just try and get value. The factors you are taking about may mean you can get value if others have not taken them into account.
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DFC lets have a bit of fun 3? for you
1 name me any Pro punter who bothered about value . 2 name the last 1000/1 shot to win l will give you any event . 3 name this year Ledger 2010 winner .. |
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Horse Racing > Bang 20th Aug : 2m4f Mdn Hrd Showing 1 - 6 of 6 Selections
Selection Odds Stake(£) Bid type Placed Profit/loss(£) Butlers Glen * 5.39 42.00 Lay 42.00 Himayna 17.50 3.00 Back 20-Aug-10 13:45 -3.00 Miss Franklin 315.85 2.00 Back 20-Aug-10 13:46 629.70 Miss Franklin 3.00 100.00 Lay 20-Aug-10 13:57 -200.00 Nouailhas 220.00 2.00 Back 20-Aug-10 13:46 -2.00 Pinerock 2.90 15.00 Back 20-Aug-10 13:45 -15.00 *Average odds: On Off Back subtotal: 609.70 Lay subtotal: -158.00 Market subtotal: 451.70 Commission @ 3.2%: 14.45 Net Market Total: 437.25 ================================================================ Borderlescott 12.00 2.00 Back 20-Aug-10 15:15 -2.00 Equiano 4.90 6.00 Back 20-Aug-10 15:21 -6.00 Kingsgate Native 6.60 15.00 Lay 20-Aug-10 15:21 15.00 Prime Defender 55.00 2.00 Back 20-Aug-10 15:15 -2.00 Rose Blossom 23.00 2.00 Back 20-Aug-10 15:15 -2.00 Sole Power 152.30 2.00 Back 20-Aug-10 15:20 302.60 Starspangledbanner 2.60 9.00 Back 20-Aug-10 15:25 -9.00 *Average odds: On Off Back subtotal: 281.60 Lay subtotal: 15.00 Market subtotal: 296.60 Commission @ 3.2%: 9.49 Net Market Total: 287.11 ==================================================================== Are you sure NO ONE CAN SAY WHEN IT IS GOING TO HAPPEN ?  |
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DFC, I agree with Catfloppo. Would you have backed Sole Power at 4/1?
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DFC When is it going to happen zip thinks this will happen in the next 40 mins Mussle 3.50 misscomplacent .
Folkestone 4.10 Cocohatchee Newton Abbot 4.30 Marufo All three will get beat . |
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3.50 is a WIDE OPEN race and "anything" can win that specific race. A dodgy lay ...but I've layed Reel Amber...soon see
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Also backed winner....( 1 of 3 backed as mostly likely from where winner came from including MISS COMPLACENT!
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You FIRST identify horses that CAN win a race........and I back them with small stakes initially ...WITHOUT LOOKING AT ODDS........This helps me decide IF I am gonna lay one ....just in case I inadvertently lay a horse that can win....
So Homer Jay Simspon ....I suppose in my case the answer is YES....but only due to the method i apply on betting on a race. |
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zipper Joined: 06 Jul 02
Replies: 1941 22 Aug 10 15:26 DFC lets have a bit of fun 3? for you 1 name me any Pro punter who bothered about value . 2 name the last 1000/1 shot to win l will give you any event . 3 name this year Ledger 2010 winner .. ============================================================= 1. I don't "know" any ....and it is not relevant to topic. 2. No idea .....I don't BACK IR generally........so really not relevant , as i BACK and LAY PRIOR to off and that is all that interests me. 3. Will depend on going ....and will just have to wait before that is clear ..............obviously! |
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4.10 race ...no bet ...but would not lay the one you have zip...may lose ...may win...
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Welsh Inlet looks more of a lay than back....BUT NOT LAYING IN THIS RACE
Some small backs to pass the time GB / Folk 22nd Aug / 16:10 5f Mdn Soviet Suspect Back 22-Aug-10 16:09 34 2.00 34.63 22-Aug-10 16:09 GB / Folk 22nd Aug / 16:10 5f Mdn Whitstable Native Back 22-Aug-10 16:08 9.6 2.00 9.62 22-Aug-10 16:08 GB / Folk 22nd Aug / 16:10 5f Mdn Silver Angel Back 22-Aug-10 16:08 13.5 3.00 12.99 22-Aug-10 16:08 APPEARS TO BE THE VALUE ONE |
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Homer, Cat, And DFC . when racing is over today lets have a chat about value . rules are no swearing no falling out .. remember its all about ideas .
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Unlucky zip ...might get thrown out!
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4.30 ...again would not lay your one zip ...as it can win....
BACKED as maib bet Orchard King ew |
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and BACKED SKIPPER'S LAD win only
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small LAY on Le Forezien
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DFC thrown out hope not zipp a spotsman no way do i like to win like that
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christ what happened to my thread
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Have chickened out the LAY bet on Le FOR.....as well up and don't want to ruin a good day etc
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smaller lay on Good Harvest
7 £9.00 £63.00 £54.00 |
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DFC 4.30 Marufo ( your words zip i wopuld not lay your pick cause itcan win ) Sure its can win but zips got at least four who can beat it ....hows that for value
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Buggggggerrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr ..RAT ....still in profit but reduced AGHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
MCCOY is a demon |