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Googoo + Mustajed at Chepstow
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I think the 3 of us are using a similar strategy,but with subtle differences.I have to say my strategy didn't work long term for me,but good luck guys.Maybe your subtle differences will make the difference.
Why was that, do you think? |
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Laid Arachnophobia and Mustajed..still a poor day overall.
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I haven't a clue Snapp.I tried offering lower odds to pay out less,higher odds to get more matched.I had some good months,but inevitably I'd give it all back.
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only -£8.44 now , having been something like -£20.40 at worst today
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Interesting. I just thought that the best way to gamble would be to copy the bookmakers as closely as possible. Basically, set bad odds, move them lower as they get matched and adjust the book a bit to keep the liabilities low...keep the stakes down. Accept some bad days. seems to work more or less...
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Tribal Myth and Sixties Rock at Beverly
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Tribal Myth for me. Not much else.
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Exactly what I thought Snapp.Just didn't work out for me.Too many gambles landed.Sounds great in practice,but every time a bet is matched it's in a 100% book,whereas the bookie is taking bets on other runners at lower odds than we can get them (so unmatched for us)
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ffs
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How long have you guys been at this ?
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Maybe your stakes were to high or you didn't do it long enough to balance out those gambles. I think you need thousands of bets each month to iron out the odds...
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March 3rd i started ( 376 races)
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I made 50 points profit (only £2 stakes on each) first month.After 2 months I was back even. I was covering 18 races a day,getting around 30 horses a day matched.Thats 1,800 bets in 2 months to still be even.So then the tweaks started.That was 2 yrs ago.Still tweaking to this day lol.
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This day and the day before last have been the 2 worst since i started , and the one in between wasn't much good.
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Kempton 4:30
Pearl + Haldibari |
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Coda aswell ?
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hope not , lol , i'll check
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Coda Agency 6 into 9/2.Did well to avoid that.
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no i wanted 5 for that
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4/1 to be clear
2 or 3 times i 've watched a race without being aware i'd layed the winner, as matched just on the off |
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Tober
You seem to be setting your odds quite low,yet getting plenty matched.When do you load your bets for each race ? |
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Yes, that sounds around what I'm up to, in terms of stats. I was laying for many years , off and on, without much success and wondering why it was. Then I realized how much COMMISSION was being deducted from winnings. It really kills any profits. I was (at best) around 5%-10% profitability, but after comm, that was wiped out. Then a bad run would wipe me out. I adjusted my initial book down by 5% and I saw over a few thousand bets how the profitability rose by a corresponding amount. I really is like a casino and you need to play it for a long time with a statistical advantage, but it can be done.
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Any Given Moment , how the fk did that win :(
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I think Snapp loads his bets this morning,but Tober nearer the race ? I tried both btw,made no diff.
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Any Given Moment...ouch!
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I think the timing may be very important, so the precise time is a secret , though what do i know after the last 50 races or so
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normally, I don't watch the races. It makes no difference in the long-run, so why stress yourself out?
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I used to watch from behind the sofa
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Are you laying to fixed backers stake,or fixed liability on each bet matched ? I played to fixed backers stake,which meant the bigger odds winners hurt me more.
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yeah thats what i'm doing
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Arabian Pearl beat , Autocracy next at Windsor
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I lay to a fixed payout, not to backer's stake. The reason is that I can then lay outsiders without getting killed.
Question: After you got matched on a horse, what did you do? Continue to lay it at lower odds? |
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Yes, I have Autocracy @3.5
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presumably A Pearl was beat anyway as it was 1000, not watched it :)
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no i only lay it once
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Ahah! From my stats, the profits come from the STEAMERS , not the floaters or drifters. You simply have to take them on (and get pounded some times).It pays in the long run.
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Afsare at Kempton
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I'm taking on Eton Forever @2.90
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just want this day to end tbh, very tiresome , making mistakes.
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