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The CATT among the pigeons
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The One That Got Away 26 Apr 20:12
No sarcastic comments Ken? No, I must be getting soft as I get older. Mr Nice Guy now. |
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Rb, I'm suprised he's doing well at the mo, as alot of matches have held the same score till the end.
Todays in-play matches saw 13 under 2.5's and 4 overs so far, with one to go that's looking like a 2-0. |
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THE CATT 26 Apr 15:37
I have had a look at recent results but not long term.. i am trying it as i think correct scores are always priced up wrong... how can you predict a price accurately ?? i think there is a bit of money to be made ... we will see.. Are you not doing the same thing ? |
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Catt, had you played all in-play matches today you would have had a 46% s/r in the odds-against, and a 66% s/r in the odds-on (only 3 matches).
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Could be simplified by backing or laying ''both sides to score'', but a successful back more likely when both sides are odds against, and that would be a lay. Interesting that he has left out the draw picks in those matches where the draw is more likely.
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ken if you look, i am splitting both teams to score really...
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trev, yes you are right and the s/r would have been good... but we got all year...out today so waiting for the Darlington match tonight..
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Ok , Darlington v Notts co
1-1 2-2 3-3 2-1 3-1 3-2 1-2 1-3 2-3 +£69.71 - comm if wins -£45 if lose Balance at mo £950.00 |
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You might check your math. Alot of these could be covered in groupings of U/O 2.5 and U/O3.5 and offer better returns.
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noticed 3.5 unavailable for match...
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CATT, I'm not critising your picks (would I ?) just pointing out that you are ignoring the draw prices in the matches most likely to produce a draw (both sides odds against) which is slightly unusual, as are 0-3, 3-0 for instance in such matches. Nothing wrong with that, just a bit different, and I'm all for that. GL.
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shapeshifter, i dont want to back 0-0 though..
KEN, no you wouldnt critisize lol.. i dont mind any input , you know me ;) but what i do know is that i want to do it this way as it is based on both teams scoring or not.. |
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SHAPESHIFTER 27 Apr 13:15
You might check your math. Alot of these could be covered in groupings of U/O 2.5 and U/O3.5 and offer better returns. i doubt by backing them you would get better returns as they cover more scores than i want... |
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I noticed this last night also , the assertion made that you'd only need a s/r of 30percent to claim profit ...wouldn't be right for the picks you've made thus far .....around 9/5 last night , with just over 6/4 tonight
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catt i thought you were doing these for 1k a go last time, what happened to the bank?!
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LOL1k a go, if that's not a joke you would have to be mad or have way more money than sense.
I think 5% of the bank is waaaaay over staking, but that's just my opinion, each to their own and all that. |
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Bank won't be lost as the stake on the next bet reduces after a losing bet, increasing after wins. Problem is that the losing bets will always carry the higher atake, if only marginal.
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hi scotbet, yes you are correct, it should say 40%...hope you are keeping well
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the titan, yes that was when i had a large balance.. i have got more of a life now lol..
And Ken is right, my stake decreases with loss.. 0%s/r -£95.00, balance £950.00, next bet on barc match... |
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balance is £905
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How do you deal with the reducing stake ?
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I just wager 5% of balance and thats it.. nothing more
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Hard to see how you can win, lower stake on winning bets, comm, not to mention starting this when the domestic season is almost over, unless you hit a run of wins taking your bank above 1000. Hope I'm not sounding negative, but the latter bit is your hope. GL.
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No your not sounding negative, you are probably right but this is the way im trying and sticking to it, just see how it goes... cheers
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My two pennies worth:
Correct scores is my specialist subject. I suggest that if the match odds are accurate then the correct scores will be also. The market makers do not make a continuous fundamental mistake. What they will get wrong is the match odds. That is the market place to concentrate on (and mistakes in that market are few and far between). I suspect this is a commision generating project. Top marks for inventiveness though. |
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Thanks REM, yes it is commision based as it is real. i personally think the correct score markets are correct price too if you backed in every match but i wont be backing in every match if you know what i mean..
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Hi CATT, the math I was looking at would be dutching:
U/O 2.5 U/O 3.5 Was "math at a glance" |
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REM is, of course, correct. Problem for CATT is that he has specified certain scores, without reference to prices, but only on whether the favourite is odds on or odds against, which seems an unusual way. For instance, if the favourite is odds against then none of the draw scores will be backed no matter what the prices. GL anyway.
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Bet 3
Barc v Inter milan 1-1 2-2 3-3 2-1 3-1 3-2 1-2 1-3 2-3 £45.25 dutched, profit of £58.76 if wins.. thanks for your input everyone.. qite enjoying this even though off to a losing start.. |
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Red card , dont look good :(
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Got to be goals in the second half, Catt.
But hard to see Inter getting one.... :( |
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never mind...all part of it.. dont mind the losing bets first as long as the winning ones do come :)
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Fair play to you, mate. That's the spirit.... :)
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Poor start, it happens. GL.
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Thats a great joke Rasp :(
Yes a poor start but must carry on.. |
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0/3= 0%s/r bal £859.75, -£140.25
2 bets today ob v midtjylland 5pm Liverpool v Ath Madrid.. |
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Bet 4
ob v midtjylland 1-1 2-2 3-3 2-1 3-1 3-2 1-2 1-3 2-3 £43 dutched, 49.07 if wins. |
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0-1 @ h/t so im hopeful :)
next bet win/lose Liverpool v Ath Madrid.. Odds on so will be the same bet as this match i am on now.. |
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let me congratulate you The Catt on your first winning bet....long may it continue :)
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