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start bank: 200
target bank this time next week: 220
horses: laying my top-rated :0
must hit the target which involves aggressive staking particularly in the loss recovery department
theory: my top-rated horse is so because it has already shown it's best running
1. lay £3.33 Take Ten @4.6 (Sandown 2.20)
target bank this time next week: 220
horses: laying my top-rated :0
must hit the target which involves aggressive staking particularly in the loss recovery department
theory: my top-rated horse is so because it has already shown it's best running
1. lay £3.33 Take Ten @4.6 (Sandown 2.20)
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2. lay £3.78 Master Lightfoot @4.7 (Wolves 3.05)
also dutch betting no2-4/5/6 rated also returns a profit (dutch betting as many as you can in rating order to make around an EVEN money shot, but leaving out the top-rated)
also dutch betting no2-4/5/6 rated also returns a profit (dutch betting as many as you can in rating order to make around an EVEN money shot, but leaving out the top-rated)
so you are saying that you are **** at picking winners so you are going to lay your best selection?
You better get used to the cheaper street tubes. Add lots of mustard.
You better get used to the cheaper street tubes. Add lots of mustard.
no my theory is up there in black and white......I did not continue with dutching thread (too much hassle and too much other things on mind). This thread is simple to write and it helps me, whether it helps you or not I'm not really interested. Good luck.
3. layed £4.52 Stopped Out @4.1 (4.15 Perth)
3. layed £4.52 Stopped Out @4.1 (4.15 Perth)
"aggressive staking particularly in the loss recovery" - basically chasing your losses which will inevitably lead to irrational bets
looks like a quick way to being bust
good luck though :)
looks like a quick way to being bust
good luck though :)
I quit my Job .... zipper will take you on .. sounds a bit of fun .. and funs good .. what are we playing for EG level stakes or any stake .. whats the rules .. over to you .
I reread your thread. It had been pre-brain in gear so did miss your theory on this. So I retract my previous.
You may take a closer look at data and find that, for example, horses that run at the same distance might continue a winning streak. This might give you an edge.
The "aggressive betting". Remove it. It is called chasing. If you can turn a switch and accept a loss is gone, you will become a better player (imo). Where did I learn this? Promoting shows. Once the band says goodnight and are packing their gear, the books are done. I learnt from my losses.
You may take a closer look at data and find that, for example, horses that run at the same distance might continue a winning streak. This might give you an edge.
The "aggressive betting". Remove it. It is called chasing. If you can turn a switch and accept a loss is gone, you will become a better player (imo). Where did I learn this? Promoting shows. Once the band says goodnight and are packing their gear, the books are done. I learnt from my losses.
Take each bet on its merit re value in the odds..........do not level stake, as this is an inefficient way to bet.....and ignore a previous loss.
If you are any good...you should win through the "edges" you have.
GL....you'll need that in a 5 FURLONG sprint with first bet!( not saying it will win.....but it certainly COULD win)
If you are any good...you should win through the "edges" you have.
GL....you'll need that in a 5 FURLONG sprint with first bet!( not saying it will win.....but it certainly COULD win)
Sharp and Dfc put up or shut up . zip will put up dont take that wrong .. its only a bit of fun ... lets keep it that way .. ok lads put your opinions up 2.20 sandown 3.05 wolver 4.15 perth ...
My opinion on these 3 races will be posted before 2.00pm zzzzzzz
DFC thats why the Wife named me zipper ... zip it zipper how many times has she told me that .. but thats wifes but i love her to bits ..
Any mention of loss recovery = project DOOMED to fail.
It's that simple.
It's that simple.
Hey ...... i taught her every thing she knows about horses / hadicapping .. but not every thing I know .. tip the wink ..
Mugbil .. never ever put cash at risk you cannot afford to lose .. but you have to start somewere .. say you bet 5k on a nag if its out of the winnings thats OK .. its called re investments .. the BIg Business do it all the time ... Marks and Sparks Laddies get the drift ..
Well i post mine now.......
2.20
A race that is wide open and highly competitive.
Laying a horse in this race is dodgy IMO....better to BACK one.
Horses that appear to be ones to consider are :_
Dorback - the DRAW is a bit of a concern ......but when it won the others behind it have mainly won races either befoore the race or after race.......so must be a contender to win.
If it jumps out well ...then has every chance to win....any slight hesitancy at start ...and the draw might stop it winning.
Take Ten - has a good draw......and form was good fresh......and trainer in form....so has every chance to win
Nosedive Drawn near rail.....and won first time out.....lightly raced from race record.....has a chance of winning.
Di Stefano - Not as strong patterns of running as some...but Fallon on and going should suit ...so with middle draw it will be imporatnt that does not hesitate at start ...as will have difficulty catching some of em ...probably. However ....does have a chance to win.
Duchess Dora may do better of soft going......but has won ....and might figure in finish ....just think some of other ones appear to be better for going.
The other ones have chances too.............................so just a hard race to lay one in.
5 Furlong sprints ...plus 6 yards....are , by the nature of short trip race.....DIFFICULT to get lays "right" consistently. So you gotta have a STRONG OPINION on the race to lay one .....I don't have a STRONG OPINION on which one to lay.
If pressed hard to select one it would be -
Yurituni
GB / Sand 23rd Apr / 14:20 5f Hcap Yurituni Lay 23-Apr-10
13:13 10.5 66.00 10.5 23-Apr-10 13:13
Due to DRAW and pattern of race results....and opposition against.
If BACKING one it would be :_
GB / Sand 23rd Apr / 14:20 5f Hcap Nosedive Back 23-Apr-10
13:15 7 12.00 7.4 23-Apr-10 13:15
Draw is a concern though..............
OK zipper ...I've PUT UP ....so now will SHUT UP ]:)
Come on oh knowledgeable one
2.20
A race that is wide open and highly competitive.
Laying a horse in this race is dodgy IMO....better to BACK one.
Horses that appear to be ones to consider are :_
Dorback - the DRAW is a bit of a concern ......but when it won the others behind it have mainly won races either befoore the race or after race.......so must be a contender to win.
If it jumps out well ...then has every chance to win....any slight hesitancy at start ...and the draw might stop it winning.
Take Ten - has a good draw......and form was good fresh......and trainer in form....so has every chance to win
Nosedive Drawn near rail.....and won first time out.....lightly raced from race record.....has a chance of winning.
Di Stefano - Not as strong patterns of running as some...but Fallon on and going should suit ...so with middle draw it will be imporatnt that does not hesitate at start ...as will have difficulty catching some of em ...probably. However ....does have a chance to win.
Duchess Dora may do better of soft going......but has won ....and might figure in finish ....just think some of other ones appear to be better for going.
The other ones have chances too.............................so just a hard race to lay one in.
5 Furlong sprints ...plus 6 yards....are , by the nature of short trip race.....DIFFICULT to get lays "right" consistently. So you gotta have a STRONG OPINION on the race to lay one .....I don't have a STRONG OPINION on which one to lay.
If pressed hard to select one it would be -
Yurituni
GB / Sand 23rd Apr / 14:20 5f Hcap Yurituni Lay 23-Apr-10
13:13 10.5 66.00 10.5 23-Apr-10 13:13
Due to DRAW and pattern of race results....and opposition against.
If BACKING one it would be :_
GB / Sand 23rd Apr / 14:20 5f Hcap Nosedive Back 23-Apr-10
13:15 7 12.00 7.4 23-Apr-10 13:15
Draw is a concern though..............
OK zipper ...I've PUT UP ....so now will SHUT UP ]:)
Come on oh knowledgeable one
DFC thanks for your reply ......... Lets have a. bit of fun zips is all for that .. but i Fly Planes ... So here goes the punters are already boarding ...Zip says ..... Welcome aboard Flight 303 Air Flingus ...... your Captain today is Capt Zipper .. we have take off at 1.55 Please have your seat belts on this may be a bumpy ride
Sand 2.20 back Take Ten ........ Lay Fratellino .. more late
Sand 2.20 back Take Ten ........ Lay Fratellino .. more late
BTW - i already had a tiny bet to win on TAKE TEN.....so not copying you zip .....]:)
GB / Sand 23rd Apr / 14:20 5f Hcap Take Ten Back 23-Apr-10
12:31 4.5 3.00 4.6 23-Apr-10 12:31
GB / Sand 23rd Apr / 14:20 5f Hcap Take Ten Back 23-Apr-10
12:31 4.5 3.00 4.6 23-Apr-10 12:31
zipper ....we better be fair to I QUIT ...and do this on your other thread for next few races ...YES???
DFCIRONMAN 23 Apr 13:17
Well i post mine now.......
2.20
A race that is wide open and highly competitive.
Seriously, as one who used to back horses, why bother? This is the sort of race that should be avoided at all costs imo.
Well i post mine now.......
2.20
A race that is wide open and highly competitive.
Seriously, as one who used to back horses, why bother? This is the sort of race that should be avoided at all costs imo.
No idea what you are on about, zipper?
I know for a fact, as sure as 1+1=2, chasing losses as part of a betting plan is guaranteed to fail.
I know for a fact, as sure as 1+1=2, chasing losses as part of a betting plan is guaranteed to fail.
I agree ....but as zip says "it is only a bit of fun" ...and as it is a HARD RACE ....I like to be tested....
Hi Muqbil......I trust you've noticed SO FAR I've turned around my losses on football bets into PROFIT.......
The horse racing at present is stuttering along ....but getting there with doing a combination of 1 lay and sometimes backs in races......still doing to too many races...but all part of layig learning curve.
Trust you are doing well as usual....
The horse racing at present is stuttering along ....but getting there with doing a combination of 1 lay and sometimes backs in races......still doing to too many races...but all part of layig learning curve.
Trust you are doing well as usual....
DFC zip wii put one up Called next 3 races plus naps if thats ok with you zip ait ever been a blushing bride .......
Fair enough zip ...will check which races you mean etc
Cheers the noooooooo
Cheers the noooooooo
Come on zip ...where is thread with races you want to take on??????
can't hang about here all day waiting on you getting act together ...your nurse will be in shortly ...and we all know you drop everything for her :D
can't hang about here all day waiting on you getting act together ...your nurse will be in shortly ...and we all know you drop everything for her :D
GB / Wolv 23rd Apr / 14:30 7f Sell Stks Catherines Call Back 23-Apr-10
12:31 6.6 3.00 6.8 23-Apr-10 12:31
12:31 6.6 3.00 6.8 23-Apr-10 12:31
DFC my thread is up just for you kiss kiss kiss .. that Catherines Call left it a bit late but she won .. shes a lot better than that but a winner is a winner .. losers can please them self ...zzzzzzz
DFC ........ i HAVE to go late zip knows the markets inside out 2 mins post time is Ant Post for real Gamblers ......... you need all the info at your finger tips
Crap zip....you should have an OPINION based on your assessment of a race...not based on matrket moves which generally don't mean sqat!
zipper 23 Apr 14:43
DFC ........ i HAVE to go late zip knows the markets inside out 2 mins post time is Ant Post for real Gamblers ......... you need all the info at your finger tips
LOL, zip you are hilarious.
DFC ........ i HAVE to go late zip knows the markets inside out 2 mins post time is Ant Post for real Gamblers ......... you need all the info at your finger tips
LOL, zip you are hilarious.
General Midwinter you sound very cold to me ...... Any how move on zips hilarious the wife oftern says zip it zipper ....... my ribs are aching ( laughting )with your comments when was the last time you gave your (girl... wife a laught )....
iquit how have u learned to control ure punting?
as long as he wins, he is fine. But read the first post - re: aggressive staking. He has hired a spin doctor to come up with a new definition of chasing ;)
u see aggression in poker, this game is similar
Shapes right as long as its green its easy peasy
when you hit reds it gets tougher on the mind.......breathing exercises and only playing researched events makes it easier.............when you start random guessing on the next available thing to claw back a loss - u do your bank and balls. These markets never forgive you that's for sure. If I lump on - it will be the next day and the research will be twice as detailed.
What I've learnt is no1 can predict the future, it cannot be done. So it's no good having a 10k bank and only staking 100 a time IMO. What's the other 9k for? comfort viewing? You may come home pi ssed from pub and have 5k on Baseball in middle of night. Play with smaller banks, play it like a game of poker and withdraw some beer money when you have played well. Punters back the same ones every time. Back high, lay low. Lay some, dutch some. Press the green button. Have fun.
p.s. I've pressed the green button in 4.15 Perth - 2 non-runners leaving 11 to run but only six have the credentials to win........it's not about being right, it's about being green
Shapes right as long as its green its easy peasy
when you hit reds it gets tougher on the mind.......breathing exercises and only playing researched events makes it easier.............when you start random guessing on the next available thing to claw back a loss - u do your bank and balls. These markets never forgive you that's for sure. If I lump on - it will be the next day and the research will be twice as detailed.
What I've learnt is no1 can predict the future, it cannot be done. So it's no good having a 10k bank and only staking 100 a time IMO. What's the other 9k for? comfort viewing? You may come home pi ssed from pub and have 5k on Baseball in middle of night. Play with smaller banks, play it like a game of poker and withdraw some beer money when you have played well. Punters back the same ones every time. Back high, lay low. Lay some, dutch some. Press the green button. Have fun.
p.s. I've pressed the green button in 4.15 Perth - 2 non-runners leaving 11 to run but only six have the credentials to win........it's not about being right, it's about being green
DAY 1 RESULTS
Paper dutching no2-? to make around evn money
San 2.20: 1.Dutchess Dora (rated 7th best) dutch bet LOSE
Wol 3.05: 1.Captain Carey (rated 4th) dutch bet WIN 11/10
Per 5.15: 1. Danish Rebel (rated 3rd) dutch bet WIN 11/10
laying top-rated 3/3
I greened in Perth race due to non-runners and the fact the horse was the only distance winner in the race
my profit £7.03
bank £207.03
Paper dutching no2-? to make around evn money
San 2.20: 1.Dutchess Dora (rated 7th best) dutch bet LOSE
Wol 3.05: 1.Captain Carey (rated 4th) dutch bet WIN 11/10
Per 5.15: 1. Danish Rebel (rated 3rd) dutch bet WIN 11/10
laying top-rated 3/3
I greened in Perth race due to non-runners and the fact the horse was the only distance winner in the race
my profit £7.03
bank £207.03
made a bit on football last night
DAY 2 bank: £219
4.05 Leicester
Top rated is Carr Hall not value at moment if it trades around 5 I will lay
layed the low-rated Marju King @8.2 6pts
dutch bet 2.5pts Baltimore Jack, Divinatore, Arashi, Kyle Of Bute (around 10/11)
just the one race today.......have fun
DAY 2 bank: £219
4.05 Leicester
Top rated is Carr Hall not value at moment if it trades around 5 I will lay
layed the low-rated Marju King @8.2 6pts
dutch bet 2.5pts Baltimore Jack, Divinatore, Arashi, Kyle Of Bute (around 10/11)
just the one race today.......have fun
DAY 2 RESULTS
4.05 Lei: 1. Arashi (rated 4th best) dutch bet WIN 10/11
top-rated: Carr Hall layed @5.1
4% profit on race
total: 4/4 laying top-rated
3/4 winning dutch bets
made money on footie, new bank £244
4.05 Lei: 1. Arashi (rated 4th best) dutch bet WIN 10/11
top-rated: Carr Hall layed @5.1
4% profit on race
total: 4/4 laying top-rated
3/4 winning dutch bets
made money on footie, new bank £244
lost 10 on US footie last night
DAY 3 bank: £234
Bath 3.15
layed Magroom 5.5 (top-rated)
dutch bet Fault, Spinning Ridge, Sunny Future (7/5)
Ludlow 4.15
layed Sou'wester 3.3 (top-rated)
dutched American World, Glenn An, Tyup Pompey, Warpath (EVENS)
DAY 3 bank: £234
Bath 3.15
layed Magroom 5.5 (top-rated)
dutch bet Fault, Spinning Ridge, Sunny Future (7/5)
Ludlow 4.15
layed Sou'wester 3.3 (top-rated)
dutched American World, Glenn An, Tyup Pompey, Warpath (EVENS)
If this is a thread re:laying horses, whyt on earth are you using the same bank to bet on football which seems pretty different so far....shorly just stick to laying horses with one bank, use a seperate one for the footie bets...
Bath 15:15
1st 6.Fault 3.80 (2nd rated) Dutch bet WIN 7/5
laying top-rated Magroom WIN
this thread is about laying top-rated horses and dutching no2-? rated to make around even money bets
I record my personal bank just for me
I will evaluate weekly laying top-rated, dutch results to level stakes profit
1st 6.Fault 3.80 (2nd rated) Dutch bet WIN 7/5
laying top-rated Magroom WIN
this thread is about laying top-rated horses and dutching no2-? rated to make around even money bets
I record my personal bank just for me
I will evaluate weekly laying top-rated, dutch results to level stakes profit
If you need an online thread to keep discipline...
Ludlow 16:15
1st 4.Warpath (IRE) 7.00 (rated 5th) dutch bet WIN Evs (one of my selections NR so more than evens)
laying top-rated WIN
1st 4.Warpath (IRE) 7.00 (rated 5th) dutch bet WIN Evs (one of my selections NR so more than evens)
laying top-rated WIN
Zola's Back Heel 25 Apr 16:20
If you need an online thread to keep discipline...
u need psychiatric help.........yeah I know I've tried em all
new bank: £269 with £10 in play on Ellesberg v Brondby
If you need an online thread to keep discipline...
u need psychiatric help.........yeah I know I've tried em all
new bank: £269 with £10 in play on Ellesberg v Brondby
total so far: 6/6 laying top-rated
5/6 winning dutch bets
5/6 winning dutch bets
I.quit.my.job 25 Apr 16:27
Zola's Back Heel 25 Apr 16:20
If you need an online thread to keep discipline...
u need psychiatric help.........yeah I know I've tried em all
:^0
Zola's Back Heel 25 Apr 16:20
If you need an online thread to keep discipline...
u need psychiatric help.........yeah I know I've tried em all
:^0
DAY 4 bank: £297
4.10 Newcastle
layed top-rated Buachill Donna @4.2 8pts
dutch bet the next 5 best rated: Roker Park, Captain Dunne, Quest For Success, Strike Up The Band, Red Cape (EVENS) 3pts
4.10 Newcastle
layed top-rated Buachill Donna @4.2 8pts
dutch bet the next 5 best rated: Roker Park, Captain Dunne, Quest For Success, Strike Up The Band, Red Cape (EVENS) 3pts
do u have only one or two bets a day now iquit ?
one or two horse races as I only play thoroughly researched events and I spend at least 45 mins on a race...........footie the same
Newcastle 5.15
top-rated Fortunate Bid (no value to lay at current odds, looking for around 7)
dutched Mohawk, Hansomis, Cigalas, Indian Violet, Louisade (10/11)
Newcastle 5.15
top-rated Fortunate Bid (no value to lay at current odds, looking for around 7)
dutched Mohawk, Hansomis, Cigalas, Indian Violet, Louisade (10/11)
4.10 Newcastle Result
1. Buachill Donna (1 rated) dutch bet LOST
-£30 on race
1. Buachill Donna (1 rated) dutch bet LOST
-£30 on race
Newcastle 5.15 Result
1. Saving Grace (11th rated) Dutch bet LOST
layed top-rated Fortunate Bid @7.2
bank: £263
1. Saving Grace (11th rated) Dutch bet LOST
layed top-rated Fortunate Bid @7.2
bank: £263
total so far: 7/8 laying top-rated
5/8 winning dutch bets
5/8 winning dutch bets
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