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Betfairy,
Does that mean that you don't believe in modelling sports at all? |
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I appreciate that you may have a model which gives you good averages, but to imply that football follows a simple formula is far-fetched. Until you can model the mind of Messi weaving his way through a 5-man defence, no.
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Should have read:
I appreciate that you may have a model which gives you good averages, but to assert that football follows a simple formula is far-fetched. Until you can model the mind of Messi weaving his way through a 5-man defence, no. |
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Why are posters ignoring the fact that the ''lack of draws'' is happening only in the Premier League but not in the other English Leagues ?
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have to agree with ken on one of his earlier points. I believe the significant variance so far this season is that average goals are up (notwithstanding some of the 5 & 6 goal pastings that have been handed out). Less draws being a by product of that
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This season may well be different.
1) Far more dross in premier league this season. Maybe credit crunch has helped this. Portsmouth , burnley, wolves , hull , etc defensivly weak. There is a bigger gap between top and bottom half which could result in more one sided matches ie fewer draws 2) Less emphasis on defence. Just last week benitez for example was claiming liverpool would be more attacking this season , and as a result would have less clean sheets , probably leading to fewer draws. |
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The original poster is only concerned with the premier league market ......why should he look at other english leagues ?
the average draws in the top division in england over the last 6244 games is 26.85% or 1677 draws....prior to the start of THIS season ...the lowest season for draws was 05-06...77 draws the longest "time" to wait for 5 draws in the league was Season 97-98 13/12/97 and Season 95-96 15/04/96 in that time it took 42 matches |
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the lack of draws theme may continue throughout the season due to the increasing discrepency between the top and bottom and the fact you now have man city, tottenham who are hoovering up more wins. there are only a few clubs who you could predict will be between 9- 12 wheras in a more volatile league there would be more teams in the mix for a midtable finish and thus results would be more standardized through the season
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Based on original post , I think it's still pretty risky to bet using a level staking principle ...assuming you believe the draws will come good ...what happens if they only reach 04-05 target of 77
so another 73 out of 315 23.17% requiring an avg price of 4.32 to break even - before comm...seems optimistic |
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Lokking back at the original post im thinking this must be a windup.
Nobody as supposedly clued up as Magician would bet draws for the entire season simply because there hadnt been one for a few weeks. |
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What if Magician...... you have this all back to front.
What if the price has not reacted enough to the lack of draws. i.e there is value in laying them still at these prices, because the prices have not caught up with the fact draws are less likely because of whatever reason, and also there are those thinking the tide will soon turn keeping the price from becoming as efficient as it needs to be to be the most accurate reflection of its chances. just a thought. |
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cant see city v west ham being a draw mate
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not only has there been a lack of draws, but so far this season there has been a glut of goals in the Premiership.So far averaging 2.95 goals per game, I can't help thinking that the two are related
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I don't bet on Fottball, but thought that the draw was where some value for the clued up football punter could be found due to people normally having far more of an opinion about a team winning / losing and hence the draw getting under bet,
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The original poster is only concerned with the premier league market ......why should he look at other english leagues ?
Because it is inconvenient ? |
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@£5K a pop he'd struggle to get matched at top price on any other league and possibly in this league on any non live game.
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Clydebank, he's fishing.
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I agree fwiw kenilworth.
But it is a reason why many big staking winners don't bother researching certain markets. |
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dont think magician does fishing
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I`m with Heynoodles ,doubt very much he is fishing.Is 5k level stake the way to go ,should he be backing each draw to win a set amount or does it not matter ?
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I like all on here had noted the 'lack of draws in Premiership' headlines of late. You start thinking is this something that will even itself out so should I be backing the draw at slightly over inflated prices. In my opinion the answer is NO - the reason is simple - the Premiership more than ever is almost two leagues this season:- 10 or so good/decent teams + 10 smaller/poorer ones which in my eyes are only marginal Premiership clubs. The relegation of some bigger sides of late has made it more one sided than ever - everyone is saying about all the goals being scored but mostly this is a result of the top teams thrashing very weak ones more frequently. (Burnley in 11th place have a GD of -10!). So I think this pattern of lack of draws/ lots of goals will continue and we really will have '2 leagues in 1'.
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frames for someone so clued up he doesn't seem to be going about things the right way imho. It certainly sounds like he is bored and half hearted whether he is fishing or not.
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There are no "click and win" approaches to betfair / gambling.
This thread is full of examples of why bookies will continue to make money. One event does not "influence" another event. For trends, people see what they want to see. They do not see what is going to happen. |
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I.quit.my.job 27 Sep 17:55 I got ridiculed when I said favs were due at a meeting because there had been very few win in the last 5 meetings (horses) - this is exactly the same.............. One event does not "influence" the results of another. Factors can be taken into account that are related that allow a person to try to predict an outcome but that is all. More importantly, the odds should not be given significant weight as a factor when trying to predict an event. Bookies love those who think "we are due a favourite" in the same way they love people who bet odds on on the away team (see Arsenal return last year / Chelsea yesterday ;) ) more goals are scored in the early part of the season, that is why there has been a lack of draws so far......... "That is why there have been a lack of draws so far". I don't think the stats support this: I hit the data base: 2008-2009 FIRST 64 GAMES / EQUAL DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN TEAMS GOALS SCORED: 228 AVERAGE GOALS PER GAME: 3.56 DRAWS: 16 LAST 64 GAMES / EQUAL DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN TEAMS GOALS SCORED: 206 AVERAGE GOALS PER GAME: 3.21 DRAWS: 17 So based on first eight weeks vs last eight weeks: There are just over 10% more goals scored at the beginning of the season There is only 1 more draw at the end or 6% Thus the change in draws is not equal or more than the ratio of goals therefore cannot be given heavy weight to the argument that less goals = more draws and will not indicate value but does support the notion of perception which, again, works for the bookies. |
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^ shape
where is this data from ? |
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heynoodles 28 Sep 10:24 dont think magician does anything other than fishing |
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scotbet, this is from a database that I have for game comparison. Info is readily available on the net to be compiled.
Someone introduced me to http://www.h2hstats.com/ last week. Getting used to manouvering but is useful for team comparisons / general stats For looking at how certain leagues are performing, I used to use www.betexplorer.com. But really for general looks at leagues. In general, I find that painting a wide brush over a league or type of bet is never the way to go and will do nothing but contribute liquidity to the pool. |
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tonight game
Back Your Odds Your Stake Your Profit The Draw 4.6 £5,000.00 £17,976.35 Ref: Bet matched: £5,000.00 |
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frames
potentially valid point to bank each draw to return or win a certain amount... but given the price distribution will be reasoinable small - 5K flat stakes is ok. |
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If you stop at -150k, that is only 30 games or basically 3 weeks. That % of bank could leave you a little stretched if this run continues for another month or so.
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If a firm set the spread for total season draws in the prem around the average for the last five seasons, would you buy or sell it?
I can see an argument for selling, because the league seems more polarised this season than for a while. |
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Mean reversion is of course nonsense. Overpricing makes sense as a justification, maybe. I think the draw is almost certainly overpriced anyway because of a whole host of reasons. For that reason, Magicman, I'm in!
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two games down
10K down |
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Think of it not as money lost but as a Premium Charge buffer.
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viva el presidente! 28 Sep 21:18
If a firm set the spread for total season draws in the prem around the average for the last five seasons, would you buy or sell it? I can see an argument for selling, because the league seems more polarised this season than for a while. viva, I'm sure you would see an argument for selling, especially as there have only been 4 draws from 66 matches. Trouble is you have to think of these things before the event, not after 66 matches. |
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Magician,
If none of this is relevant, and you simply go about backing all draws in premiership games, I would estimate that with a 2% commission rate you would have a 40-60% chance of being successful based on chance (luck) alone. Mainly because you are happy to risk more than you stand to gain. By being successful I mean either being in profit at the end of the season or reaching your 100k target before that time. This would be provided you could get fair odds (before commission). This is just an estimate, but of course you could work it out quite accurately for instance by simulating it. I find simulation is a great tool to get some kind of grip on how much success is due to luck and how much is due to having a positive expectancy. One thing is certain: If you do simulations, and create charts for each one, you'll see they vary massively (for this scenario). It's quite feasible to get a few draws in a row and then a few draws in a row again and very quickly reach 100k. Equally, you could go without any draws for an extended time and lose quickly. The charts that are created by simulations really give you a good feel for the possible outcomes, more so than actually calculating it I find. One simulation I like to do, is to look at my daily percentage gain over a period, and use that to simulate what could have happened. If the returns are very volatile, a lot is left to chance (the chart looks completely different from one simulation to the next), if returns are stable, the charts will look similar. The interesting thing is that if you run a simulation with a small chance of catastrophe (laying at 1000 for instance) some charts will show smooth ever increasing returns, and some will be badly affected by massive losses. Basically, even if you are successful with this experiment, I believe that there is a large chance this is just due to luck. Conversely, if you do have a small edge, the chance of a negative outcome remains high. In closing, I would say that it's extremely difficult to prove that you have a positive expectancy over this series of bets, even though the chance of success is reasonable. Do you agree? |
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this falls into gambler's fallacy Magicia.
100 coin flips.....65 heads/35 tails for the next 100 games you have to expect 50 heads/50 tails as this is what the odds of evens suggest. so after 200 flips you shoud expect 115 heads/85 tails. The more times you flip the coin the closer the %'s will get to 50 but this is not because the difference is made up. Same case for draws in football. You can't expect there to be more draws before the end of the season to make up for the drought. The draws will occur as the odds suggest |
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^ assuming you believe the prices are correct
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You can't just look at the number of draws in 07/08 and 08/09 and say that's the norm but ignore the number of draws this season. As the most recent results they should carry greater weight but without doubt you certainly should include them in the stats. Something like the rolling number of draws updated after every round of games so one week drops off and another adds on would be more appropriate and would spot possible trends quicker. The 2 year average will have dropped with this years results added to the mix so the price of the draw should drift marginally to compensate imo. Then maybe there is a general reason why the number of goals would change such as a new offside rule, new balls/new footwear or a league specific reason such as a greater gulf between the top and bottom sides.
Most of all I think you need to come up with your own prices from basics and not just blindly take the current price. The price of the draw fluctuated between 5 and 4.3 in yesterdays game, so what prices is it value at within that range? (it mebbe even shortened a point or two because of a combination of this thread and Magician's £5k) |
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There was another post somewhere else on general where someone said that "the law of averages" balances things out.
Again, if you rely on the law of averages to bring you winners, you are simply contributing to the liquidity of the pool. The more I look at the world of gambling, the more I see the blind temptation that keeps punters in check. |