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The Betfairy 01 Mar 13:43
Interesting point this .... i have often thought to myself ...how many hours is too many ? I've been thinking alot about this recently, especially since reading about the 80.20 principle (20% of effort results in 80% of the reward, the other 80% effort is largely wasted). Have reached no conclusion yet. I recently looked at how much money I make based on days of the week, and found that from 2006-2009 I made more than 75% of my money on Wednesdays, Saturdays and Sundays. Which means I made less than 25% of the total profit on Mondays, Tuesdays, Thursdays and Fridays. * You could conclude from this that on an average Wed, Sat or Sun I make 4x as much as one of the other days. If you consider someone in a regular job, lets say an office worker, who is paid £400 on certain days of the week, and £100 on others, and can choose when he works, he would probably be reluctant to work on the days where he does the same work for less money. However, in my case, my profits increase as a function of bank growth (although of course at some point an inflection point is reached). This means that the 25% of total profit I make on the other days, also has the effect of compounding profits for the days that I can make the most. *At the beginning of February, I had a very significant loss on a Saturday, which changed the picture a little. |
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Yes History Maker.
Not betting (temporarily) because you have hit a certain target is nonsense. The only scenario I can think of where I could recommend this is in a casino when playing some negative expectancy game 'for fun'. Give yourself a chance to keep your winnings, if you do get lucky. Obviously, the best advice would be not to play a negative expectancy game in the first place. It's just like the old maxim 'cut your losses and let your profits run'. Most gamblers tend to do the opposite. This only applies to positive expectancy games though. If you are playing a negative expectation game (without an edge), this can be truncated to 'cut your losses'. |
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Trev....if you are still about...
How did you make that breakthrough? I ask because I'm in a similar position to youre original one... |
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thanks for the responses
few more questions if thats ok What bank did you start with when you went pro? What did you give up to become pro? Have you ever been tempted to give up? |
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ttt
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Agree History ...the general principal doesn't change
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Principle even *
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owl4life.
Are you wanting answers just out of curiosity or are you contemplating something and want some anecdotal evidence to help you decide? If you read the threads that come up fairly frequently on here regarding 'full time', 'pro' etc there are common themes within the serious responses. 1) There is no one 'way', there are many profitable strategies and each person's story is different. 2) To make gambling pay you must place your money on bets that have an 'edge'. |
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just interested pal
just like to hear people's views and opinions on these things |
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Omega1, the first step in making the break through was realising where I was losing the most, which happened to be horse racing. I always found horse racing to be the most attractive sport to gamble on, not because I knew anything about it, but because it was always there prime time every day and had fantastically liquid markets - millions of pounds changing hands, and races starting every 10 minutes. I plugged away for about 9 months full time, but eventually realised I would never crack that cookie, and that was the first step of the break through. Now, if ever I want to avoid complacency and remind myself how awful losing feels, I only need spend an afternoon back on the horses, and I do actually do that once every couple of months for that reason only!
After learning that lesson, I worked out where my strengths lie - slower moving markets that give me time to analyse what's going on and give me good time to get of bad bets for a red-up, unlike the sudden losses on the horses that can come in seconds for a full loss. Then I wanted to develop something that would avoid as much as is possible the volatility and vulnerability that I had experienced, and give some sort of feeling of security, as I was always wary of blowing weeks of hard work in moments of madness, which if permitted to happen once could happen again and again. The key to that was obviously staking, so now I only stake 0.5% of the bank on any one bet, and aim to win or lose that amount. No greed, no chasing, no delusions of grandeur, I just want to make a living. The final thing I'll mention is that I know I can't predict the future accurately, so I guess I'd be classed as a trader rather than a gambler, although I do place every bet to win it, but at a certain point I will always red-up if it's not going my way. GL. |
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OK, no worries.
Targets? No. Hours? Had not kept details of this until last year but I keep stats on everything else so why not? Worked out at ave 145 hours per month. Worth it? Yes. Bank? No specific amount as a 'start up' but do bet to a bank using Kelly to maximise return. What did you give up? Been running a business for over 10 years and I was becoming a bit stale with it (employees, Gov fees, insurances etc). Started looking at this seriously for about two years before selling the business, which was a bit over two years ago. Tempted to give up? No. |
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How has the premium charge affected you?
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So many AGAINST Targets - I must add my penny's worth.
Target's? Yes. I have a target for every day, every week, every month to Dec.31st. e.g My target Monday November 6th is £109.86 Other processes make the bet selection (back or lay) - the odds and the target determine the stake. Without targets, staking would be aimless and random. Hours? Probably an hour preparation in the morning - an afternoon of horse-racing, and hour in the evening recording results and updating spread-sheets etc. ALMOST every day other than holiday weeks. I love it. Worth It? Absolutely - resigned from FT employment and not worked as an employee and no 'benefits' or other income since Fri.June 20th.2003 I'd feel like a widower without Betfair. |
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Trev, reply appreciated and helpful to me. Ive been gambling since the seventies...win or lose then..and that habit is very hard to break for many characters.
Opened my account here about 8 yrs ago and tho Ive won nowt my losses have been negligble over the period. From my BF start I realised I had to change my habits toward trading and I have slowly. I'd love to solely trade on selected markets and have started the process. Like you i have stopped gambling on horses (a year ago), tho a few placepots @ chelts will happen Im sure. I can live with that too without fear of a return. Im concentrating on football, golf at the mo but need an edge and a stratergy. Bots have passed me bye but if I was twenty years younger i'd be on them like a shot! Whats an API BTW? Your points abouts strengths, staking and taking Reds are all noted. Who said the forum is dead ? Hope you keep making it pay...Cheers! |
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No worries Omega, good luck! An API is an application programming interface, if you look at API Products near the top of the list on the left, you'll see what's available. Do you do all your betting from the Betfair website? If yes that must be painfully slow! I would recommend taking a look at Gruss Betting Assistant which is £6 per month and makes accessing markets and placing bets fast and easy.
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I am the one and only223 27 Feb 00:13
You can have a good run where you think "yes I've finally cracked it". But you will ALWAYS I repeat ALWAYS have to experience a long losing run where you think "is it worth carrying on?" or "maybe my edge has gone now." or "I'm going to lose all my gains, maybe I should stop now". I should have thought that in the vast majority of cases it would be a very short losing run followed by a deposit. As for targets, I fail to see the point in setting one when "if I don't hit it then it doesn't matter". It just becomes nominal rather than a useful tool in this case. On the flipside, I also fail to see how setting a daily, weekly or even monthly target is productive in the first place. |
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CurlyBlues 03 Mar 00:22
I am the one and only223 27 Feb 00:13 You can have a good run where you think "yes I've finally cracked it". But you will ALWAYS I repeat ALWAYS have to experience a long losing run where you think "is it worth carrying on?" or "maybe my edge has gone now." or "I'm going to lose all my gains, maybe I should stop now". I should have thought that in the vast majority of cases it would be a very short losing run followed by a deposit. The vast majority of people don't use correct money management because they're mostly after the buzz from gambling, not to make money. I thought we were talking about pros mate! For a month from about Xmas 2009 I was down a lot of money. I've just bought a new car, and this was more than I'd just paid for the car. But because my bank is an appropriate size compared to my bets, I could take it and just reduce my stakes. I didn't have to deposit anything. Now I've made all that back as the tide has turned, and my stakes are back up to previous levels. But the losing run could start tomorrow again... |
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CurlyBlues 03 Mar 00:22
As for targets, I fail to see the point in setting one when "if I don't hit it then it doesn't matter". It just becomes nominal rather than a useful tool in this case. On the flipside, I also fail to see how setting a daily, weekly or even monthly target is productive in the first place. Curly, would you set out on a journey having no idea of where you want to go, and maybe not even use a map or sat nav because you don't know where you're going anyway? You'd probably have a good chance of ending up lost, or perhaps go round in circles ending up where you started. So a target for me is affirming where I want to go, and helps me plan and stick to the route to get there, but if I don't get there because I took a few wrong turns it doesn't matter, I'll get there next week. :) |
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I'd never thought of any good use of a target before. It has just dawned on me that in the case of really, really, highly successful punters, a target might be of use to establish when it's time to go out and enjoy the rest of the week/month/year/life and not spend all day gambling.
I think that's a special case though. |
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At my girlfriend's job her department is set a monthly sales target and bonus is paid to 100% of this target. The threshold that they need to hit is 60% to be paid anything. Last month this target was ridiculously unattainable, perhaps comparable to making £25 a day from a £10 bank everyday.
This kind of ridiculous target can only serve to be a demotivator in the long term and isn't useful. Similarly if a target is so low it would be virtually impossible to hit. So, for examples sake, someone with a 2% edge, a £10K pot staking 2% and entering an average of 20 markets a week trying to make £40 a month. This kind of target could serve no reasonable purpose. To quote Oscar Wilde: "Consistency is the last refuge of the unimaginative". As for people who set themselves a target and "don't mind" if they hit it or not, I think I already explained my feelings there. Trevh 03 Mar 01:58 Curly, would you set out on a journey having no idea of where you want to go, and maybe not even use a map or sat nav because you don't know where you're going anyway? You'd probably have a good chance of ending up lost, or perhaps go round in circles ending up where you started. So a target for me is affirming where I want to go, and helps me plan and stick to the route to get there, but if I don't get there because I took a few wrong turns it doesn't matter, I'll get there next week. Would I set out on a journey without any idea of where I wanted to go? Well, if I was to be so free-spirited I probably wouldn't want a sat nav there anyway. Regardless, I see your point but there's a large difference between knowing what direction you want to go in, even on what route you will take and setting yourself a deadline to get there. If you get there early are you going to just sit in your car until you were supposed to arrive and if you're late are you going to just stop your car where you are? imlac1 03 Mar 00:45 The vast majority of people don't use correct money management because they're mostly after the buzz from gambling, not to make money. I thought we were talking about pros mate! I thought we were talking about people who wanted to be a "pro". |
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some very good points there
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Just picked up on this thread.
I am predominantly a layer and I price up many markets ahead of time, put them on the exchange and then walk away. I get winning and losing days but I have a small edge which over time make my profit. Hence I have no set daily targets in terms of profit, but long term I win and as my turnover is high but my % profit from it is low, I avoid PC as well. |
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It's about finding opportunities, not meeting targets. No opportunities means no bets/trades/etc. Failing to meet a target means looking for opportunities that aren't there.
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I've known gamblers win huge amounts with aggressive target setting.
Unfortunately when some really bad luck came their way he lost alot.... quick. |
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what is you method for pricing up active x?
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owl4life,
A question about your forum name: aren't all owls 'owls for life'? I mean, it's not as if owls undergo metamorphosis like caterpillars. You may as well just call yourself 'owl'. |
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A bit like saying Tuesday for life, or even Wednesday.
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food for thought
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Owl
My pricing method(s) are what have taken years to refine, they are far from perfect and include using bookmakers prices as a starting point in some cases. As they are what makes my money I could not give the detail away. Having come up with a price I then need to give myself a margin of error, then leave the order on the exchange. I have the good fortune to have some computer programs designed that can reproduce my methods making the pricing and bet placing as simple as clicking a mouse. Without a degree of automation I would struggle. I also have built up a good reserve of cash so can weather poor runs. Everyone has there own ways on here, mine is to try and lay or back at a price I feel is in my favour, as a result I may place 100 bets but only get 10 matched and then win 6 lose 4. I have been on here since 2001 so had plenty of time to come up with an approach that I am both comfortable with and has a small edge. |
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if you want to make money the best i have seen is
www.top-tips.org.uk the guy is siht hot and its cheap as ***** he is clearly relying on volume business but good luck to him as i think he is worth his money. that is the best bit of advice you will get from me ! |
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^
(likely) SCAM ALERT Every morning for the past 18 years I have contacted my friends in the industry and together we have been successful in making a healthy profit, I am asking you to email me and I will contact you daily with the best bets in the horse racing industry and the best bets in the sporting world too for that day. I am so confident that I will make you a profit I am happy to give you a free trial for 30 days, I will do all the work and you give me nothing at all! Absolutely NOTHING! At the end of the 30 days you may break the daily contact with me and walk away with your profit if you so wish. Give different tips to different people, some will win and pay for the service. I am yet to come across a tipping service that provides any value whatsoever in terms of profit for its customers. A very healthy dose of skepticism is required. I'm not singling this guy out by the way, the same applies to any other paid for tipping service. |
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Do you set targets? No, apart from the odd challenge here and there.
if so, is it on a daily, weekly, monthly or even yearly basis? None. How many hours a week do you spend on here? Varies from no time at all to every minute every day. is it worth it? I'm a sport fanatic, so I would spend as much time following sport anyways. Making money off an intrest is obviously worth it imo. |
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I have been semi a few times.
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couldnt be further from the truth !
i am he ! ha ha..but i give you my word i wont be on here again ! i done it purely to see what type of characters will try shafting me and i have found out instantly ! i have no need to scam people , i think that is called SLANDER ! |
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as it happens investor rather than bad mouth me come and give it a go fella !
i shouldnt think the monthly fee is enough to worry you ! im really bloody annoyed with that scam comment ! you are a disgrace ! |
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owl....ActiveX is basically laying the shorteners and backing the drifters.
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I also hate scammers.
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i admittedly made a mistake by mentioning my site on here but just wanted to see if i got a response good or bad !
to be flashed up with scam alert is wrong ! i despise people who con others especially in this game, i happen to be an ex conference footballer with lots of friends in the football world and plenty of contacts in the racing yards especially newmarket, no more than that ! i wish you well people and good luck ! |
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soixanteneuf, I have an inherent distrust of tipping services, as it's a well documented fact that they are mainly used to line the tipsters pockets, whilst providing little or no value for customers.
I like to keep an open mind though, so I am open to being convinced otherwise. |
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ok don't get out of your pram
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